Lets Push 14 Outs?

[PrtyPSux 0]

I have about 530 in front of me and have been at this table for some time..playing laggy. BB is kind of a calling station but has folded big pots twice after I pushed my sets. He's quick to call, a bit more hesitant to raise, but he still raises every once in a while. BB has about 500 in chips so we are basically even.2/4 PR 4 handed.I have As3s UTGI raise to 13, folds to bb who calls.flop Js, 10s, 3cbb checks, I bet 20 (ive bet about 90% of the time after raising), he raises 50.this seems kinda weak to me, like AJ A10 JK JQ Q9 or something..maybe J10 maybe a set. I had been pushing quite a bit and he alway folded, I was mainly pushing monsters and I was kind of irritated that no one was calling, so I figured if I balance pushing strong draws and pushing monster hands I can get paid off with my sets and straights. So I pushed.opinions?

[DonkSlayer 1]

-EV. Less so in this short-handed situation, but overall, mixing it between full-rings and short-handeds, among quality and poor players, this will you get in trouble more often than not. Remember, they can reload if they lose after calling. You're also disregarding the distinct possibility that, as you're known to put in a continuation bet 90% of the time, he may have slowplayed a big pocket pair on the flop, and is now betting for value (could be a protect-raise, but it's not a very good one). I don't see that you're really drawing to 14 outs here; I assume you believe your A is an out, but if he's got TP/TK then it only hurts you. I like calling here. He's not giving you too bad odds to see if you can turn the flush, and if he acts scared of the A if it hits, maybe you can take it down with that as well. I'd be very careful here though, given your table image. If he's hesitant to raise in general and has been paying attention, i think you're probably beaten here at this point, and possibly badly.Good information given on this hand though, wish everyone did this.

[David_Nicoson 1]

I have about 530 in front of me and have been at this table for some time..playing laggy. BB is kind of a calling station but has folded big pots twice after I pushed my sets.

Did you show any of the sets? Does he seem frustrated?

He's quick to call, a bit more hesitant to raise, but he still raises every once in a while. BB has about 500 in chips so we are basically even.2/4 PR 4 handed.I have As3s UTGI raise to 13, folds to bb who calls.flop Js, 10s, 3cbb checks, I bet 20 (ive bet about 90% of the time after raising), he raises 50.this seems kinda weak to me, like AJ A10 JK JQ Q9 or something..maybe J10 maybe a set. I had been pushing quite a bit and he alway folded, I was mainly pushing monsters and I was kind of irritated that no one was calling, so I figured if I balance pushing strong draws and pushing monster hands I can get paid off with my sets and straights. So I pushed.opinions?

I wouldn't feel good about the ace outs if he calls. It's still pretty good equity. I probably push with this hand, contigent on how I think my opponent is feeling emotionally.

[iggymcfly 0]

I wouldn't really say that pushing is a bad play here. I mean you win the hand often enough at showdown that with your fold equity, you'll probably still make a little on it in the long run. It's just that the stacks are deep enough that calling is a better play. If you can get paid off decently when you hit your 3 or your spade, you'll probably end up making a lot more when you hit than you lose when you don't rather than just jamming in a big overbet into a relatively small pot. I think that this is where there's an adjustment between playing cash games and tourneys, in that you don't usually have a deep enough stack in a tournament to make calling down the best play here.

[CobaltBlue 662]

Basically, going with what the others are saying, you need to discount your outs a bit. The fold equity may make up for the discounts, but it's close.What kind of bet do you think he'll make on the turn?

[PrtyPSux 0]

What kind of bet do you think he'll make on the turn?

Thats the thing, I think after c/r'ing in this draw heavy board he's probably potting (or close to it) on the turn..in which case, I dont think I can call, can I? and well after the turn I have no FE so pushing is out of the question. I likely play a set on this board the exact same way, and the fact that I hadnt been called the whole session played a role in my decision. I really thought that I'd be able to get payed off easier once I hit another monster.

[MasterLJ 0]

You need 13 absolutely clean outs to be ahead of someone.Generally I consider clean outs to be those that make a straight or a flush. If you want to count very clean outs then you subtract those that pair the board as well.

[David_Nicoson 1]

You need 13 absolutely clean outs to be ahead of someone.

13 is the new 14.

[fckthis 0]

I dont like the push. It seems more of a tournement move than a cash game one. Essentially even if you're the favourite, it is simply tossing a coin for 500$. Of course factoring the fold equity here, its not a TERRIBLE move, but not a GREAT one either.

[Garn 0]

i call and reevaluate after the turn. IMO 13 cards is not enough to rish $500

[Abbaddabba 0]

If you're lagging it, and he's calling station-esque, there is no need to push now.He's going to pay you off if you hit.Fold equity is only one reason to push with big draws against solid players. The other is because they wont put lots of money in the pot after you call a raise and a flush draw hits.You're in position too. Even better. If he is doing this with something weak-ish, there's a good chance that he gives you a free card after you call anyways.

[PrtyPSux 0]

but if Im only pushing the nuts wont it make it a bit hard for me to get called unless I hold the good side of the cooler? Logic would dictate that you'd have to be willing to push with slightly the worst of it in order to get called when you have the best of it no? Or is this logic pointless in online cash games? Im not disagreeing with any of you Im just trying to make sure my logic isnt all messed up, which it very well could be.

[iggymcfly 0]

but if Im only pushing the nuts wont it make it a bit hard for me to get called unless I hold the good side of the cooler? Logic would dictate that you'd have to be willing to push with slightly the worst of it in order to get called when you have the best of it no? Or is this logic pointless in online cash games? Im not disagreeing with any of you Im just trying to make sure my logic isnt all messed up, which it very well could be.

I wouldn't worry about that too much. If your sets aren't getting called, it's probably just because you haven't run into a villain with a big enough hand to do so.

[macphec 0]

I like it. I'm a big advocate of playing monsters and draws the same way. If you push here you are getting called > 90% of the time. And when you push teh next time with a set you'll be a lot more likely to be looked up.I do think it's really close and I would personally call but I think pushing, purely for metagame purposes, is the beter play.

[srblan 0]

A pair plus a flush draw is one of my favorite hands to play fast in NLHE. I push here more often than not, especially against an opponent who has shown a willingness to lay down. You're right about playing monsters and draws the same way, it makes it much easier to get action.Let me guess, he had a set?