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Daniel Running It Twice In Omaha


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The first key pot I played was in Pot Limit Omaha. I was dealt Ah Ad 5h 5d and raised from early position to $6000. David Benyamine, who just re-raised on the previous hand declared that he was "steaming" and re-raised me to $21,000. That's music to my ears with such a monster hand.I went ahead and re-raised the pot, and we each threw in $100,000 a piece. "I've got two pair and double suited aces," I said to David."No, you really have that," he asked? Then promptly turned over virtually the same hand with As Ac 7s 7c. Obviously I was hoping for a better situation that that, but I got my money in as the favorite.Don't believe me? Try running the two hands heads up. Sure the 77 will beat the 55 if they BOTH flop a set, but I have the added win of the 2-3-4 straight. That is MUCH more likely to happen than set over set.Unfortunately, the flop came K-8-7. We ran it twice from there as I had two back door flush draws, but I missed both and was stuck $200,000 right off the bat.
I just ran a sim, and it looks like DN was 6.95% to win the hand. Resulthttp://twodimes.net/h/?z=1615756pokenum -o ah ad 5h 5d - as ac 7s 7c -- kc 8h 7d Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Kc 7d 8hcards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EVAd 5d Ah 5h 57 6.95 757 92.32 6 0.73 0.073As 7s Ac 7c 757 92.32 57 6.95 6 0.73 0.927Maybe I didn't run the sim correctly...but if I did, running it twice for $200k instead of once for $100k has to be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard of. DN is obviously a smart dude, so what am I missing here?
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Maybe I didn't run the sim correctly...but if I did, running it twice for $200k instead of once for $100k has to be one of the dumbest things I've ever heard of. DN is obviously a smart dude, so what am I missing here?
I don't really get it either. He says A5A5 ds is a favorite because of the board possibly showing 234, but, I dunno. Doesn't seem real logical. Doesn't seem like any odds calculators agree with him, either.
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Enough gamble to knowingly bet $100k straight up on a 7% chance to win? I guess...
I'm agreeing with you. I'm sure he'll explain what he was doing later on, but it did seem like a -EV thing to do. Gamb00l = The balls to do something foolish.
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When they run it twice at the big game, they always do each run for half the pot, so I really doubt that this one time, DN decided to double his bet as a huge dog.He was probably either stuck $100,000 already from other hands, or else he just mistyped the amount of either the loss or the pot. As for the AA55 vs. AA77, he is wrong though. I just ran the odds on CardPlayer, and AA77 has 50.2% equity against the AA55.

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I thought that when they ran it twice, no additional money was put into the pot. am i missing something? wouldn't he just be out the 100k he put in in the first place?

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I'm agreeing with you. I'm sure he'll explain what he was doing later on, but it did seem like a -EV thing to do. Gamb00l = The balls to do something foolish.
Pre-flop its likely a chop unless someone spikes a set... which is even. Slight edge to david since if they both do he wins... makes sense to run it twice from there I guess just to try to avoid a chop...But after the flop and losing all those potential outs (5s, straights) and only picking up 2 backdoor flush draws against a made set ? I'm baffled.
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When they run it twice at the big game, they always do each run for half the pot, so I really doubt that this one time, DN decided to double his bet as a huge dog.
I'm fairly sure this is the case too. Not just in the big game but I'm sure that in previous blogs DN has mentioned running it twice half for half the pot each time. Seems odd given that doesn't seem to agree with what he's writing
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Yeah, I see that this time he doubles the amount. That's why I suggested that it was a mistake. Every other blog entry I've ever seen DN type, he says that the point of "running it twice" is to reduce variance by doing each of the two runs for half the pot.The point is that it's more likely than DN entered something into his blog wrong, or lost $100,000 without playing a "key pot", than it is that he'd just randomly decide to give away $90,000 or so in equity.What am I missing here DrawingDead?

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Pre-flop its likely a chop unless someone spikes a set... which is even. Slight edge to david since if they both do he wins... makes sense to run it twice from there I guess just to try to avoid a chop...But after the flop and losing all those potential outs (5s, straights) and only picking up 2 backdoor flush draws against a made set ? I'm baffled.
Yeah, me too. I just went back and read the blog in it's entirety, and I have no clue why he would stake $200,000 on two chances at hitting a backdoor flush draw. I don't see any other way he could reasonably expect to win, you can't bet on runner-runner 7's unless you're Danny Nguyen.
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What am I missing here DrawingDead?
You said..
When they run it twice at the big game, they always do each run for half the pot
..and that's not the case. This blog is full of errors, obviously, but, it seems pretty clear what he's saying about the cash exchange in this hand.
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No offense but anyone who can't see that negreanu just made a typo somewhere is a complete retard with no ability to think. What is more likely, he just typed a wrong number when the keys are right next to each other, or he chose to run it twice and not make any big deal about it but happened to be betting another 100 grand as a a 16:1 dog? Come on people, lets use our brains.

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I think it is a typo. I believe that they ran it for half the pot each time. Daniel jams these Blogs out unedited, It would make no sense to throw anothe $100k out on a backdoor flush draw. He also said he was beat on a limit holdem hand where he had a Full house against a straight. I think he meant that he was behind in the hand until the river.

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No offense but anyone who can't see that negreanu just made a typo somewhere is a complete retard with no ability to think. What is more likely, he just typed a wrong number when the keys are right next to each other, or he chose to run it twice and not make any big deal about it but happened to be betting another 100 grand as a a 16:1 dog? Come on people, lets use our brains.
The preflop percentages according to Cardplayer:DN - 30.85% to win, 37.86% to tieRB - 31.28% to win, 37.86% to tieDN declares himself "the favorite"Post-Flop - (assuming the Kc, 8h, 7d giving DN his "two backdoor flush draws)DN - 6.95% to win, .73% to tieRB - 92.32% to win, .73% to tieDN runs it twice as a 6% shot to win the hand. Misses both, as you do 94% of the time. Somethings up, I don't know if it's a mistake at the table or a mistake in the blog.
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Daniel is right on this though...I would rather have AA55 double suited than AA77 double suited. It is just common sense....and I know that the AA77 is a miniscule favorite.Just common sense guys...AA77 isn't connected...AA55 is.As for what happened after the flop....I don't know what the **** was going on....

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Daniel is right on this though...I would rather have AA55 double suited than AA77 double suited. It is just common sense....and I know that the AA77 is a miniscule favorite.Just common sense guys...AA77 isn't connected...AA55 is.As for what happened after the flop....I don't know what the **** was going on....
Think about a board of 234XX vs 57XXX, which one will have more variations?234xx will have 45x44 variations/occurences.57XXX will have 46x45x44 variations/occurences,234xx makes Daniel a winner.A board of 34567, 45678, 6789T, etc makes David a winner.
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Think about a board of 234XX vs 57XXX, which one will have more variations?234xx will have 45x44 variations/occurences.57XXX will have 46x45x44 variations/occurences,234xx makes Daniel a winner.A board of 34567, 45678, 6789T, etc makes David a winner.
HUH? a straight on board is a straight. WTF are you talking about? The connected "second hand" is always better in Omaha...they both have AA dude...It is a fact...it is not open to debate. If you play PLO and got to choose before the flop...which hand you would rather have...AA55ds or AA77ds....you want AA55 ds. PERIOD.
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Even if it is a typo, and Daniel put no more money in the pot to run it twice after the flop, that would make David Benyamine a complete donkey--when he flops a set why in the world would he agree to run it twice and give Daniel two chances at a runner runner flush?

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HUH? a straight on board is a straight. WTF are you talking about? The connected "second hand" is always better in Omaha...they both have AA dude...It is a fact...it is not open to debate. If you play PLO and got to choose before the flop...which hand you would rather have...AA55ds or AA77ds....you want AA55 ds. PERIOD.
Chill out. I am talking about the statistics about this specific situation, AA55ds vs AA77ds.
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Even if it is a typo, and Daniel put no more money in the pot to run it twice after the flop, that would make David Benyamine a complete donkey--when he flops a set why in the world would he agree to run it twice and give Daniel two chances at a runner runner flush?
You're kidding right? 3 out of 50 times, someone will hit runner-runner flush. 1 out of 16 times, roughly. They ran it two times. You see why that's a good wager?
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You're kidding right? 3 out of 50 times, someone will hit runner-runner flush. 1 out of 16 times, roughly. They ran it two times. You see why that's a good wager?
I'm not kidding, no. I don't see why its a good wager. If I have 22 and you have AA (in holdem) and the flop comes 2 8 Q and you offered to run it twice from here on out there is no way i would do that. sure there are two aces in the deck but...[to clarify, im assuming no more money goes into the pot after the flop. if any more money goes in on the flop it is horrible for daniel]
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You're kidding right? 3 out of 50 times, someone will hit runner-runner flush. 1 out of 16 times, roughly. They ran it two times. You see why that's a good wager?
It would still be a great wager if he accepted an offer to run it 50 times, from Benyamine's POV.
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