I Called In Sick Today

[CindyLou 11]

As an example, all of us have a pretty big piece of Memphis in the NCAA tournament, with stakes ranging from 5x to win 250x, to 2x to win 70x. When you consider that x = 1% of a player's bankroll, you can start to appreciate how important these decisions are.

I don't really have anything intelligent to say about what you're talking about, so I will ask a question that pertains to me instead.I have Pitt over Memphis in the final (also, Louisville and Oklahoma as my other final four teams).Let's say I need the winner, runner-up, and one of the other two teams to win my pool.Let's also say that winning would roughly equal 0x to win 2,800x.Do you like my situation?p.s. everyone needs to watch the Ying Yang Translation video.

[speedz99 145]

Hmm, sounds like she is getting fond of you. It would be cruel to bond with her and then ship her off to strangers. I'm sorry speedz, you're just going to have to keep her. There's no other way.

Bah...no cats for me until August...then I'm getting two.

we are probably going to need a picture

I don't have a camera to do it. She's not that cute though, you're not missing out on much.

1) I've read this post 3 times now, and each time, in the bolded section, I leave out the second "on," so it reads: "I was talking to the stuffpuppet I was hitting on Saturday." I always get immediately excited for JBrad -- "Hey, Dawson was hitting that!" -- until I remember he was just hitting ON her, not (a) having sex with her or (B) beating her. Sadness.

Shit...I thought he was having sexual relations with that. Oh well.

If anybody has any thoughts on the issue, or wants to engage me in a dialog, post them here or send me an email at ShimmeringWang@gmail.com .

Can the dialog be about...something other than stats geekery?

[mk 11]

MK, I'm looking at you, Mr. Combinatorial junk bond salesperson.

the key factor you haven't mentioned is that when you hedge you hugely minimize risk of ruin which obviously has far-reaching EV consequence as it allows you to continue making +EV decisions in to the future.

[speedz99 145]

I was working at the front desk yesterday (yes, I'm not only an animal nurse but a receptionist as well), and some kid around 22 brought his cat in. When he came up to pay...Me: So your total is $48.Kid: Hey, me and my buddies got a bunch of knives yesterday.Me: Oh...yeah?Kid: Yeah, they're great. The SEAL teams use them and everything. Me: That's...cool.Kid: Check this out.[kid opens his jacket to proudly show a little bowie knife with about a 3 inch blade][speedz immediately thinks of Crocodile Dundee and tries not to laugh]Kid: Pretty sweet, right?Me: Yeah. Nice one.Kid: Plus we made this trap for squirrels in the backyard.[kid goes off on long monologue about how the trap was made][speedz wonders if it's too warm out to have left his steak in the car]Kid: ...so the rock falls on it.Me: Wow. So your total is $48.

[Tactical Bear 3]

the key factor you haven't mentioned is that when you hedge you hugely minimize risk of ruin which obviously has far-reaching EV consequence as it allows you to continue making +EV decisions in to the future.

Indeed, but there are ways, hypothetically, to almost completely eliminate risk of ruin. For example, recalibrate your bankroll after every successful or unsuccessful wager.That being said, Mike, if you could give me numbers -- math! -- I'd be indebted. I'm looking for fresh perspectives, because we're at an impasse, with everyone just shouting the same argument, over and over. "NEVER TAKE A -EV POSITION!""LETTING 200x FLY VIOLATES THE CONSERVATIVE STANDARDS BY WHICH WE OPERATE, AND VIOLATES THE KELLY CRITERION!""MY NAME IS CARL, AND YOU HAVE TO STOP YELLING IN MY COFFEE SHOP! ALSO, I SWITCHED THINGS UP TODAY, DECIDED TO WEAR BOXER-BRIEFS."

[mk 11]

That being said, Mike, if you could give me numbers -- math! -- I'd be indebted.

it's important to remember how lazy i am.

[loogie 115]

it's important to remember how lazy i am.

It would be easier to remember if you could give us some sort of graph detailing said laziness.

[brvheart 1,752]

Any update on a job or am I delivering pizzas for papa johns this summer?

Sorry, I haven't been to Huxley yet this week. I'll try to make contact by tomorrow.

[Sal Paradise 57]

Sorry, I haven't been to Huxley yet this week. I'll try to make contact by tomorrow.

how about now? you heard anything yet now?

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

It would be easier to remember if you could give us some sort of graph detailing said laziness.

or maybe a picture of him lazying around when he should be working.

[CindyLou 11]

or maybe a picture of him lazying around when he should be working.

Maybe while wearing a t-shirt.

[brvheart 1,752]

This is awesome little hometown hero Shawn Johnson, talking about her taco.

[Tactical Bear 3]

it's important to remember how lazy i am.

Then: a challenge.I believe I could successfully argue that taking -EV hedges -- assuming we follow proper bankroll procedures (Kelly Criterion, etc.) while considering our original stake -- will lead to an INCREASED risk of ruin, even though it decreases variance. Anything we do that decreases our longterm earnings always increases our risk of ruin, ceteris paribus.

[Sal Paradise 57]

Then: a challenge.I believe I could successfully argue that taking -EV hedges -- assuming we follow proper bankroll procedures (Kelly Criterion, etc.) while considering our original stake -- will lead to an INCREASED risk of ruin, even though it decreases variance. Anything we do that decreases our longterm earnings always increases our risk of ruin, ceteris paribus.

my contention: nah.

[brvheart 1,752]

I love college.

[Tactical Bear 3]

I don't really have anything intelligent to say about what you're talking about, so I will ask a question that pertains to me instead.I have Pitt over Memphis in the final (also, Louisville and Oklahoma as my other final four teams).Let's say I need the winner, runner-up, and one of the other two teams to win my pool.Let's also say that winning would roughly equal 0x to win 2,800x.Do you like my situation?p.s. everyone needs to watch the Ying Yang Translation video.

The odds of a Pitt/MEM final are about 6%, and I'd say Pitt's a pick'em AT BEST (probably closer to a 40-60 dog), which means your equity gets chopped in half, to about 3%. Some rough math gives you a slightly worse than 50/50 chance of getting at least one of 'Ville and Okie into the final four, as well, meaning you'll have to chop your equity in half again, to about 1.5%, or approximately 1/60. This means you can go ahead and count about 46x and call it your own. More realistically, probably about 30-35x, but who wants to be realistic?Wang

[Tactical Bear 3]

my contention: nah.

My contention is that prior to the Revolutionary War, the economic modalities, especially in the southern colonies, could be most aptly described as agrarian precapitalist.

[Sal Paradise 57]

My contention is that prior to the Revolutionary War, the economic modalities, especially in the southern colonies, could be most aptly described as agrarian precapitalist.

yeah, we'll you're a fag. HOW'DYA LIKE DEM APPLES.

[CindyLou 11]

This means you can go ahead and count about 46x and call it your own.

Yes! I think!So...given the criteria of needing winner/runner-up/three of four, what would be the best anyone could do?

[loogie 115]

My sister is looking for an accompanist for her singing, and this guy sent her a link. I dig it.

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

My sister is looking for an accompanist for her singing, and this guy sent her a link. I dig it.

nice but -1 for indoor sunglasses douchebaggery.

[Bizzle 0]

My dad clued me into a seminar given by some wackjob statguy about the NCAA tournament today over at RIT.My main problem with his conclusion was that he was drawing it based on a 78 game sample size (he even said during one of his talks that one of his ANOVA tests now fails because all the 1s won to the final 4 last year). I asked if he had thought of expanding his sample size by adding a grouping of matchups working backwards into the season.He said, and I quote, "No we didn't think of that, but we wouldn't want to do it, because I believe there is a different level of pressure that occurs during the NCAA tournament, an example of this is *insert some speech about how a team clobbered another team twice and then lost the third time, in the tourney*"Me: "......."Wang, you'll be happy-he thinks that based on his stats, the over-under for the total of the seeds of the teams in the final 4 this year is going to be 10 ("like every other year"). I offered him lots of money in a wager, provided I would take the under. He did not bite. I also offered him that I would take the top half in every region, and he could have the bottom half, and I'd take even money on all the games. Once again, he did not bite. My dad's boss was in the room, she seemed to be getting annoyed by the fact that the grad students weren't asking any questions and I was throwing various wagers at this man.Finally, I went upstairs to find my dad's class, he wasn't lecturing so I stepped in. He asked me if I had asked the sample size question and what the response was, I said "He believes in pressure." My dad looks at me totally bewildered for about 3 seconds and then *bursts* out laughing. The entire class of indian kids looks at him like wtfux and I start laughing my ass off as well. Then I leave.Pressure. Affecting performance. Hah.

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

My dad clued me into a seminar given by some wackjob statguy about the NCAA tournament today over at RIT.My main problem with his conclusion was that he was drawing it based on a 78 game sample size (he even said during one of his talks that one of his ANOVA tests now fails because all the 1s won to the final 4 last year). I asked if he had thought of expanding his sample size by adding a grouping of matchups working backwards into the season.He said, and I quote, "No we didn't think of that, but we wouldn't want to do it, because I believe there is a different level of pressure that occurs during the NCAA tournament, an example of this is *insert some speech about how a team clobbered another team twice and then lost the third time, in the tourney*"Me: "......."Wang, you'll be happy-he thinks that based on his stats, the over-under for the total of the seeds of the teams in the final 4 this year is going to be 10 ("like every other year"). I offered him lots of money in a wager, provided I would take the under. He did not bite. I also offered him that I would take the top half in every region, and he could have the bottom half, and I'd take even money on all the games. Once again, he did not bite. My dad's boss was in the room, she seemed to be getting annoyed by the fact that the grad students weren't asking any questions and I was throwing various wagers at this man.Finally, I went upstairs to find my dad's class, he wasn't lecturing so I stepped in. He asked me if I had asked the sample size question and what the response was, I said "He believes in pressure." My dad looks at me totally bewildered for about 3 seconds and then *bursts* out laughing. The entire class of indian kids looks at him like wtfux and I start laughing my ass off as well. Then I leave.Pressure. Affecting performance. Hah.

pete is clutch, statguy, not so much.

[El Guapo 8]

I had a rough morning, well not really me, but more a situation. I had a new prospective client sitting in front of me, and we were going over the normal things where are you from, what did you do for a living, kids, blah blah. Then we start talking about taxes and she lets me know that this year is going to be really difficult. Now she has pretty much fixed income so I was curious as to why. Well she had done a 1035 tax free exchange of an annuity from one company to another. It was not processed correctly and the check was made out to here, instead of the contra firm. She asked her current advisor what to do, he said endorse the check to the knew firm and mail it off. Well first, that is incorrect and he should have know that, second the insurance company messed up by making it payable to her. So there are two levels of mistakes here that cost her $22,000 in taxes.Now to make things worse, this jackass of an advisor, who titles himself as a CSA (Certified Senior Advisor) and Certified Senior Financial Planner, which are bogus titles that any of you could put on a business card if you filled out the appropriate paperwork, put all of her money in 4 different EIA's (Equity Indexed Annuities). These things pay huge commissions 10-15% and they have very long surrender periods and huge surrender fees. 18-20 year with 20+% penalties for early withdrawals. Virtually locking a 65 year old money up for her entire life.When I explained to her, as gently as I could, what she had purchased and how they worked. She started crying and packed up all her stuff and left. There was really nothing I could do for her, except help her file a claim against this guy. She sat in the parking lot for almost 30 minutes having a heated conversation with someone before driving off. Our service manager could see her from her window. She almost backed into someone leaving she was so flustered. I felt terrible for the next couple hours after all this happened, even though I didn't do anything except point out to her the way her investments* worked.*term used loosely.EDIT: I really hate my industry sometimes. It's crap like this that has gotten us into the problem we are facing in this country right now. Greed with no though on how it affects others.

[JubilantLankyLad 1,957]

I had a rough morning, well not really me, but more a situation. I had a new prospective client sitting in front of me, and we were going over the normal things where are you from, what did you do for a living, kids, blah blah. Then we start talking about taxes and she lets me know that this year is going to be really difficult. Now she has pretty much fixed income so I was curious as to why. Well she had done a 1035 tax free exchange of an annuity from one company to another. It was not processed correctly and the check was made out to here, instead of the contra firm. She asked her current advisor what to do, he said endorse the check to the knew firm and mail it off. Well first, that is incorrect and he should have know that, second the insurance company messed up by making it payable to her. So there are two levels of mistakes here that cost her $22,000 in taxes.Now to make things worse, this jackass of an advisor, who titles himself as a CSA (Certified Senior Advisor) and Certified Senior Financial Planner, which are bogus titles that any of you could put on a business card if you filled out the appropriate paperwork, put all of her money in 4 different EIA's (Equity Indexed Annuities). These things pay huge commissions 10-15% and they have very long surrender periods and huge surrender fees. 18-20 year with 20+% penalties for early withdrawals. Virtually locking a 65 year old money up for her entire life.When I explained to her, as gently as I could, what she had purchased and how they worked. She started crying and packed up all her stuff and left. There was really nothing I could do for her, except help her file a claim against this guy. She sat in the parking lot for almost 30 minutes having a heated conversation with someone before driving off. Our service manager could see her from her window. She almost backed into someone leaving she was so flustered. I felt terrible for the next couple hours after all this happened, even though I didn't do anything except point out to her the way her investments* worked.*term used loosely.EDIT: I really hate my industry sometimes. It's crap like this that has gotten us into the problem we are facing in this country right now. Greed with no though on how it affects others.

"Ouch8s - CSA, CSFP, EIA"I like the ring of that. where would someone find this paperwork you refer to?