I Called In Sick Today

[brvheart 1,752]

I forgot to mention hospitalizations but didn't want to do another edit.  Where have you seen that hospitals are at their limits?  What cities?

[brvheart 1,752]

If you trust the WHO this is more really good news:

 

 

 

[Napa_Don 688]

I think it's all very political.  I think if Obama was in office and shut down flights from China in February that the left would be celebrating that decision. (and the "Right" would be up in arms about "their rights")  Hardly any democractic politicians criticized this in the press.  Not to mention there were a lot of people on the left calling for Obama to cancel travel to Ebola countries. https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/220317-dems-call-for-obama-to-ban-flights-from-ebola-countries

I think if Obama closed the country for 3 months and then told the states it was up to them when they reopened that the left would be celebrating that decision. (and again the "Right" would be calling for Obama's head)  OK, but that's not what happened as Trump demanded that states open up before even the guidance of his own cabinet and heavily criticized the states that decided to wait to open.

If Obama had a doctor on a live press conference giving updates every day for months the left would be celebrating that decision (and the Right would say Obama is just using it for screen time).  What democrats were saying this was bad?  If anything there was a lot of pushback when Trump sidelined Fauci after he kept publicly giving guidance that Trump didnt agree with.  All the states that had similar conferences from their governor and cabinet had/have really high approvals in both red and blue states. 

If Obama made it possible to test everyone in poor health immediately and then acquired millions of testing kits nationwide within months the left would call that a job well done (and the "Right" would call him... I don't know.. the n-word?).  I guess I disagree that Obama wouldn't have been getting criticized from the left if he had done the same job as Trump not to mention if he had repeatedly promised millions and millions of tests and that everybody who wants a test can get a test months before it actually happened.  As well as coming out and saying that testing is actually bad.  And I also strongly believe that an Obama administration wouldn't have had to hijack states orders for PPE on runways because they didn't have a prepardness plan or any real strategy to increase production.  Because they put one together

I'm thankful that the far majority of conservatives are very low key about their politics.  For instance, I have only seen maybe one Trump yard sign in the entirety of the area between Chicago and Milwaukee, and yet on November 3rd that area is going to be bright red in the election maps.  The people who's voice gets elevated (the people in the MAGA hats that are interviewed by the media at Trump rallies) are such a small part of the conservative movement that the left is constantly surprised at the GOP support in elections.  That will happen again this year, since conservatives don't tell pollsters the truth and ALWAYS vote.  Sounds like a bunch of cowards to me.  At least the dipshits on the news aren't afraid to hide behind their beliefs. 

Right now all the polls show Biden with a big lead (albeit smaller than Hillary had going into her loss in 2016). In what world is this true?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-has-a-historically-large-lead-over-trump-but-it-could-disappear/

[Napa_Don 688]

14 minutes ago, brvheart said:

I forgot to mention hospitalizations but didn't want to do another edit.  Where have you seen that hospitals are at their limits?  What cities?

Literally just taking from one of the first few responses of googling state + hospital bed capacity  The COVID19 tracking website is also showing hospitalizations starting to go up sharply again.  It'd be interesting to see what it looked like without NY data in it but I don't know how to do that. 

Florida

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/44-florida-hospitals-at-icu-capacity.html

Texas

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-capacity-surge-cases/

Arizona

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/06/26/capacity-data-for-individual-hospitals-shielded-from-public/

[Napa_Don 688]

Also, I'm really glad that it doesn't seem like the protests led to a spike in cases!  Whether because people were wearing masks orr if its just not that transmissable outdoors or if people stayed away if they weren't feeling well or what. I despteatly want to be back to normal as much as the next guy.  I had big plans for concerts and trips for this summer that vanished because of this.  However, I've started going out into the world more and not being as cautious with packages and getting food delivered because I think it's been shown that those are extremely low risk to the point of being no risk, probably.  I'd assume that with all of the cases in amazon distribution centers that many many more people would have gotten it by now if that was the case.  

 I'd be extremely happy if this was all overblown and I think if Trump would have handled this with any amount of competency he would be unbeatable in November!  You show that graph as if it proves they handled it good but it sure seems like outcomes are despite his response and not because of it and you can hardly say that we are anywhere near putting this thing to bed since herd immunity is basically inachievable without therapeutics. 

[Napa_Don 688]

OK, I need to be done.  I'm just wasting my time and getting worked up for no good reason. 

[Napa_Don 688]

I still love you though Brvy. You individually are still one of the best people I know and I expect the biggest bear hug possible if I’m ever allowed in Chicago again. 
 

[Napa_Don 688]

Gdi I can't quit you guys.  Closed on my mortgage refi today.  Bought points down to 2.99 on a 30 yr but the premium was like only 6 months longer to breakeven over (under 30 months, cant remember exactly).  I also bought a cheap 3D printer the other day.  Pretty neat.  Been printing a few things I found plans for for things that I've been thinking "it'd be nice to have something for that".  Biggest one being some sorters for my rechargable batteries.  I've also printed a few things for my shop which has been nice.  Won't take long to pay for itself just from that stuff alone.  Back to work full time in 3 weeks.  Not making us go back into the office for the foreseeable future though, which is nice. 

[Theraflu 1,035]

so angry. (me. i am)

 

Thanks for doing the work today Nap. 

 

 

[brvheart 1,752]

First:  I love you.

Second:  Respectful dialogue shouldn't get you worked up!  This can be fun and everyone can get a better perspective of others.

 

• Hardly any democractic politicians criticized this in the press.  Not to mention there were a lot of people on the left calling for Obama to cancel travel to Ebola countries. 
• What democrats were saying this was bad?  If anything there was a lot of pushback when Trump sidelined Fauci after he kept publicly giving guidance that Trump didnt agree with.  All the states that had similar conferences from their governor and cabinet had/have really high approvals in both red and blue states. 

If no democrats would complain about these, then they weren't bad decisions.  If they weren't bad decisions then it seems like biased people throwing shade.

• OK, but that's not what happened as Trump demanded that states open up before even the guidance of his own cabinet and heavily criticized the states that decided to wait to open.

That's fine.  Trump being Trump isn't a decision by the fed government though.  Trump is a idiot con-man.  We all agree on that.  Him ranting and complaining about nonsense is irrelevant.  All the states, especially the democratic ones, always do their own thing anyway.  You can't claim nobody takes Trump seriously 24/7 on the news and then claim that he is convincing non-outliers on how to behave.  That isn't happening.  Nobody listens to his nonsense except MAGA-hat people.

 

• I guess I disagree that Obama wouldn't have been getting criticized from the left if he had done the same job as Trump not to mention if he had repeatedly promised millions and millions of tests and that everybody who wants a test can get a test months before it actually happened.  As well as coming out and saying that testing is actually bad.  And I also strongly believe that an Obama administration wouldn't have had to hijack states orders for PPE on runways because they didn't have a preparedness plan or any real strategy to increase production.  Because they put one together

The pandemic task-force would have done nothing for this thing, especially since it was mainly just wrapped into another department.   (https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-trump-fired-pandemic-team/partly-false-claim-trump-fired-pandemic-response-team-in-2018-idUSKBN21C32M)  Any party in power would have had the exact same supply-chain issues.  I don't believe that you really think those issues fall squarely on the lap of Trump.  Even the governor of California said in a press conference that Trump had been great at helping and that he had great communication.

 

• Sounds like a bunch of cowards to me.  At least the dipshits on the news aren't afraid to hide behind their beliefs. 

When it becomes normal to think of people as racist bigots if they vote for Trump, then they don't tell you they are voting for Trump.  You can call it being a coward.  I call it a consequence of the inflamed rhetoric of the left.

 

•  In what world is this true?

Thank you for your correction on this.  I was just going on a few polls that I saw and should have gone by an aggregator. 

Two weeks before the 2016 election:  https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

[brvheart 1,752]

2 hours ago, Napa_Don said:

Literally just taking from one of the first few responses of googling state + hospital bed capacity  The COVID19 tracking website is also showing hospitalizations starting to go up sharply again.  It'd be interesting to see what it looked like without NY data in it but I don't know how to do that. 

Florida

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/44-florida-hospitals-at-icu-capacity.html

Texas

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-texas-hospitals-capacity-surge-cases/

Arizona

https://www.azmirror.com/2020/06/26/capacity-data-for-individual-hospitals-shielded-from-public/

Having a few hospitals in an area at capacity isn't an issue.  There needs to be system-wide capacity shortages. Multiple hospitals in the same area.

 

Just look at that first link for Florida you posted.  EIGHTEEN of the 44 hospitals with no ICU beds had 10 beds or less total.  (And that doesn't count the 3 or 4 that had 11 beds)

But all you see in the headlines is that ICU BEDS ARE FULL!

[Napa_Don 688]

I mean, i bet it matters to the people in those towns.  And I never said every bed in every hospital was full.  I said states are starting to hit capacity in hospitals and it objectively is happening.  And a Houston hospital being at normal capacity isn't concerning to you?

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

reasonable people can disagree on the interpretation of statistics, especially with so many unknowns about root causes and co-morbidities. i think brvy's main point, and mine surely, is that were the president a democrat, the media's headlines and focus would be different. obviously trump has been bad, and he deserves criticism. but so, too, has the democratic governers of new york, new jersey, and michigan. florida has a spike in cases, and that COULD lead to a similar outcome, but it has not yet, and the data can reasonably be interpreted to say that it won't. only time will tell. same for texas and california. 

i think the media is in absolute fear porn mode, as that is what it has become in the modern age. the trump hatred has only made that worse.

headlines like this:

 

are fvcking laughable. not because the article is making a false point (that though death rates have been going down for 11 weeks straight, data tells us they are about to increase) but because that headline is monumentally stupid, and were one looking for positives, they would tout that deaths have gone down, but we are entering a possible danger zone, so be careful. that headline is not purely trump derangement syndrome, but TDS is certainly a comorbidity. 

personally, i find the below absolutely fascinating:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

If understand this data from the CDC correctly, we can, from historical averages, anticipate how many people will likely die through a certain point in any year. and for 2020, we are 104% as of today for the USA. you can scroll through, state by state, and see where excess death has occurred. we can, of course, argue as to why this data is what it is, but we should not argue when saying that new york city is a fvckin slaughterhouse, while places like florida and texas (so far) are doing better than expected because of the lockdown (some number of car crash, drug OD, murder, etc deaths have been avoided, most likely). 

We could go around and around and around on this data, but i think it paints a picture that so far, the virus has killed mostly people who we could reasonably have expected to succumb to other issues (because they are old and have other health issues).  are there lives meaningless? of course not. but them dying does not create the necessity of a global panic and nationwide lockdown. How effective were the lockdowns is another story, one i think will be answered 30 days from now. 

but with that said, will we ever truly know how many people died BECAUSE of the lock down. overdoses? suicide? cancer screenings that did not take place, people afraid to seek medical health right now for fear of a virus that is not killing people who are otherwise healthy (save outliers). 

as for increased testing. i recall that being a major talking point, we need increased testing, we MUST have it. now that is being used, i think, deceptively to frame a narrative. people who site only gross positive tests are not being honest.

 

 

this is a fascinating chart, assuming the data is not fabricated. i dont think we are experiencing something that should cause another lockdown. deaths in states that were low before are going to increase. will they be like new york was? i doubt it, but we will see.

But, sadly, most people will not hear both sides of the story, they will hear only one, and that is sad. i could go on, post data about how safe children are and how schools should open. i could go on with more bad headlines and misleading narratives. but in the end, i prefer a dangerous freedom to a peaceful slavery. i dont want to the governemnt to have this much power. let people be free to make choices, as we always do. 

hopefully in 30 days deaths in those states seeing worrying increases will be minor, statistically speaking, because if not, i dont think this country has the resolve to go through this without overreaction. 

Good night, and good luck. 

 

 

 

 

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

5 hours ago, brvheart said:

Is she in school?

Yeah, dental school. 

[brvheart 1,752]

Um.  That's awesome!  Age?  She has just one kid?

[Napa_Don 688]

16 hours ago, brvheart said:

 

 

•  In what world is this true?

Thank you for your correction on this.  I was just going on a few polls that I saw and should have gone by an aggregator. 

Two weeks before the 2016 election:  https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

Ok, I couldn’t let this part go.  Awful convenient to pick a poll that was a few days before the then head of the FBI places a front page article in the NYT saying Clinton was under investigation and not say the poll taken after it and right before the election that was basically dead on. 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/07/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-47-trump-43-on-election-eve/

[Essay21 2,385]

Anyone have weekend plans? 
 

I don’t. I might take a nap tomorrow. I might not. We’ll just have to see how I sleep tonight. 

[brvheart 1,752]

1 hour ago, Napa_Don said:

Ok, I couldn’t let this part go.  Awful convenient to pick a poll that was a few days before the then head of the FBI places a front page article in the NYT saying Clinton was under investigation and not say the poll taken after it and right before the election that was basically dead on. 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/07/post-abc-tracking-poll-clinton-47-trump-43-on-election-eve/

It had nothing to do with convenience.  I lived through it.  Everyone thought she was going to win easily.

After the election there were millions of articles with the same basic headline:  "Why were the polls so wrong?".

 

I just googled something about Clinton and polls and that was the first link.  It was just a coincidence that it was close to the election.  I thought she had a 12 to 15 point lead in August and that it was close by late October and was surprised to still she her having such strong numbers a few weeks before.  The Comey thing didn't even cross my mind and nothing I posted was meant to be deceptive in any way.

This was from the day before the election:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll/clinton-has-90-percent-chance-of-winning-reuters-ipsos-states-of-the-nation-idUSKBN1322J1

 

Saturday before election:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-wang-princeton-election-consortium-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-victory-a7399671.html

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

2 hours ago, brvheart said:

Um.  That's awesome!  Age?  She has just one kid?

Just turned 30, one kid. I think she’s a catch. My oldest brother is talking like he might shun me if I stick with her. I am not sure about it. 

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

I'm pretty sure covid-19 is a hoax.

[brvheart 1,752]

Why would your brother shun you?  Dental competition?  Racism?  Joking?

[Essay21 2,385]

Sometimes you can just tell someone is a nice person. I see that there. 

[InternetExplorer 2,609]

He is dead set against being with a single mom. 

[Ron_Mexico 4,219]

23 minutes ago, InternetExplorer said:

He is dead set against being with a single mom. 

Then he shouldn’t do it 

 

 

and if he shuns you or treats you like shit over it, he’s a selfish scumbag and nothing to you,  not a brother, not a friend, nothing.  It’s not like she’s on heroin and gonna drag you into the gutter. 

[brvheart 1,752]

10 hours ago, InternetExplorer said:

Pic of pretty girl.

I love your edit, btw.  #Gotem

 

 

3 hours ago, Ron_Mexico said:

Then he shouldn’t do it 

 

 

and if he shuns you or treats you like shit over it, he’s a selfish scumbag and nothing to you,  not a brother, not a friend, nothing.  It’s not like she’s on heroin and gonna drag you into the gutter. 

Fully 100% agree with Mexico. (as usual)

 

 

4 hours ago, Essay21 said:

Sometimes you can just tell someone is a nice person. I see that there. 

Totally agree.  She looks pleasant and fun and I'm not sure how you can see it so clearly in just a 2D photo.  Kind eyes, I guess.