I Called In Sick Today

[Quacktastic 106]

If the hoes are the corners and you're a dot in the center, what do the edges represent? I don't see why you have to change it to an isosceles; why can't you just move your dot? Shake, they make apartments with garages these days. Or maybe that's just in real cities.

I was thinking the 2 girls that he away from in the triangle both dislike his girlfriend.

[Bearded in Absentia 0]

Yeah, but by the time he writes the story I probably won't care anymore.

Have you guys seen the pilot for The Increasingly Poor Decisions of Todd Margaret? I'm pretty sure it's based, at least in some part, on my existence.

[brvheart 1,752]

fyp

Nope. Shake was correct.

[loogie 115]

Nope. Shake was correct.

[brvheart 1,752]

I hope Jesus isn't disappointed in me. He looks kind-of disappointed.

[Napa Lite 3,278]

Reason why college is better than working #468:I can't skip work because I have a bad head cold. Reason why work is better than college #6:I'm getting paid to poop and post this!

[speedz99 145]

I can't skip work because I have a bad head cold.

You don't get sick days at your job?Good news, everyone. I got a 74 on that neuro exam...well enough to be set up to do fine after the next two (supposedly much easier) tests, and poorly enough to feel justified in missing out on my buddy's wedding reception. Win/win.

[SBriand 4]

You don't get sick days at your job?Good news, everyone. I got a 74 on that neuro exam...well enough to be set up to do fine after the next two (supposedly much easier) tests, and poorly enough to feel justified in missing out on my buddy's wedding reception. Win/win.

Good job speedz.

[Napa_Don 688]

You don't get sick days at your job?Good news, everyone. I got a 74 on that neuro exam...well enough to be set up to do fine after the next two (supposedly much easier) tests, and poorly enough to feel justified in missing out on my buddy's wedding reception. Win/win.

1) Yes, I do, but as of right now I only have 2 sick days (will get another 1.5 for this year) and to waste one on a head cold seems like a terrible idea. 2) I don't know if it was intentional or not (hoping it was) but I definitely read that in Dr. Fansworths voice.

[speedz99 145]

Well now I wish that it was intentional. I'd recommend taking a sick day if you lose them at the end of the calendar year. You're unlikely to get legitimately sick for more than a few days in the next three months, it sucks missing out on sick days, and it can be awkward trying to take them all in December, when your boss will think/know that you're lying.

[ShakeZuma 585]

fyp

I was gonna make that joke but it just didn't fit into the seriousness of the original post.btw, mongooses are freaking EXPENSIVE.

Shake, they make apartments with garages these days. Or maybe that's just in real cities.

yeah, just in real cities.

Good news, everyone. I got a 74 on that neuro exam...well enough to be set up to do fine after the next two (supposedly much easier) tests, and poorly enough to feel justified in missing out on my buddy's wedding reception. Win/win.

wait, so you didn't go to your buddies wedding reception? what the hell kind of friend are you? jesus.

I'd recommend taking a sick day if you lose them at the end of the calendar year. You're unlikely to get legitimately sick for more than a few days in the next three months, it sucks missing out on sick days, and it can be awkward trying to take them all in December, when your boss will think/know that you're lying.

or he could be a good employee and show up for work when he's needed instead of sitting at home ON HIS ASS READING ABOUT THE SYNAPSES OF FREAKING GUINEA PIGS GOD DAMN IT JESUS I JUST DON'T KNOW ANYMORE

[speedz99 145]

wait, so you didn't go to your buddies wedding reception? what the hell kind of friend are you? jesus.

Friday I was at the rehearsal, rehearsal dinner, and bonfire (during which I got hammered and was up late with my friends). Saturday I did everything that comes with being a groomsman, plus a lot more since I had stayed in the groom's friday night room with him, so I was studying in there saturday morning and kept getting frantic calls from the bride with requests for me to do them a favor and help take care of x, y, and z. That afternoon I did my thing with the ceremony and pictures, went to the cocktail hour, and was at the reception long enough to eat, say hi to my buddy and his new wife, and watch the toasts. At that point it was around 8:30 and the dancing was about to start, so I slipped out...only one of my friends (not the groom) even noticed that I was gone, as wedding receptions aren't the type of activity during which one keeps tabs on everyone one knows. Of all the weekend's activities, the latter 2/3s of the reception was the part that nobody cared about me attending, they all had their own shit to focus on.

[ShakeZuma 585]

terrible, terrible friend.

[speedz99 145]

Terrible friend, my ass. I refused my right of prima noctis out of respect for our friendship.

[Dawson Leery 12]

yeah, just in real cities.

You should probably just stay in the country

[SuitedAces21 2,722]

Terrible friend, my ass. I refused my right of prima noctis out of respect for our friendship.

i skipped one of my friends weddings to study for a summer final. but we arent that close anymore. and the girl he married is a total bitch. so i really didnt give two shits.

[mclumpo 0]

I really, REALLY, love speedz................. I mean really.

[Bearded in Absentia 0]

[Phone vibrates. I don't recognize the number, and I'm having dinner, so I don't answer.]Wang: "Anyway, yeah, so are we good?"Jenny: "I think so, but are you going to lie to me again?"Wang: "Yes. I mean, come on, at some point I'll lie to you. And you'll lie to me, too. But I'll do my best to be honest, okay?"Jenny: "You are so cute when you're being... cute."Wang: "It is one of my..." [phone vibrates] [Text message from the same number: "Yo yo yo bub its BIG. I hear your back in the game. Pick up we gotta talk bub."Wang: "Hey, I... gotta take this. Cool?"Jenny: "Sure. We can talk later."Wang: "So that's my punishment, huh?"Jenny: "Yes."----- I've been out of the game for almost a year, now, so I haven't talked to Big Bookie much since I settled up all my accounts and bid him adieu after Week 6 last year. We had an arrangement in which he let me operate totally unencumbered, but in return I used him to lay off action, helped him with some pricing/player exploitation, and worked on keeping his records and making his operation more efficient. He was always really cool to me, and despite being totally different, I like to think that we were as friendly as people in these kinds of criminal partnerships can be. Big: "Yo bub! What's up man? How you been?"Wang: "BIG! How are you, man? I tried to call you, but you didn't answer. Nobody would give me your number, but I put the word out..."Big: "Yeah bub, no no, we're good. I know you just got back in. You know Maury? He was mine until he started playing with you. You gave him a fake name but I figured it had to be ol' Bub once he described you."Wang: "Oh man, I'm sorry Big. I know it looks bad, but I wasn't trying to keep hidden from you, just... you know, trying to stay somewhat anonymous in case. Say the word and he's cut. You know I would never..."Big: "No no no, Bub, that's not it. But we do have to talk. What're you doing?"Wang: "Meeting you in a few minutes?"Big: "I'm at the spot. See you in a few?"Wang: "On the way."So I head over to the spot, which is a strip club Big frequents. I get there and Big offers to buy me a lapdance. When I politely refuse, he asks me if I want a blowjob instead. Wang: "Nah, I'm kinda seeing someone. But, even if I weren't... not that there's anything wrong with it, but I've always been uncomfortable with the idea of paying for sex. I can't even make eye contact with strippers without feeling guilty. I try to make small talk and... you know. It's just uncomfortable for everyone."Big: "You the one, man. You the one. We need a favor." Now, when Big says "we," he means him and whatever small-time Flint-town syndicate he manages the books for. I've never said no to Big, but mostly because I like helping him. I would never consider saying no when he uses "we." He's never really threatened me, but the word "we" is as intimidating as it gets coming from him.Wang: "Yeah, sure. Anything, Big. Are you sure we're cool, though? I feel bad about Maury. He's not a big-timer, but he's a perfect client."Big: "Ah, no worries. Maury's a fucking Jew fuck. I can't stand listening to him complain when he pays. Always complaining that this shit is rigged. NO SHIT SHERLOCK. You think we're just flipping coins here?. Let's go out to my car. I gotta smoke."So Big pulls out a joint and lights it up in the parking lot, then starts talking.Big: "So we've got this guy. He's just killing me. He probably bets five or six college sides a week, and then maybe an NFL game or two, but he always bets the max, and he's annihilating us. When he loses he pays, no problems, and he's always really polite, but I am getting sick of it. He started playing last year, and he'll play every sport. Bases, pucks, baskets. College, pro. Totals, sides, moneylines. It doesn't matter. He gets every single line from me, and when he hits them, he bangs the shit out of them. He went 0-12 to start off last year, and he didn't bat an eyelash. He didn't chase, he didn't press, he just paid and kept playing. Overall, he's winning 60% of his plays, maybe a touch more."Wang: "No shit?"Big: "No fucking shit, bub. At first I thought he was getting lucky, but it keeps happening, and he's a cool customer. Your age, maybe younger. I thought he was laying off, maybe running his own shop, but no way. A lot of the time he's actually keeping me onside."Wang: "So? Cut him. If he's sharp, you don't need him. Ask him to find another out."Big: "I did. But he just laughed, and that weekend I got a call from a guy. Said the punk referred him. And this guy went off, played nothing but teasers and parlays on an NBA slate. Still plays with me. Puts like 1K on every televised game, sometimes more. Then the killed called and asked if he could play. Said he's got other friends that like to gamble. Even with the kid killing me, it's worth it to keep all the action he sends me."Wang: "And you want me to...?"Big: "Figure out why he's killing me. If he's just really sharp, if he makes the games at the right number, I'll take my beatings, maybe just offer to set him up to run his own shop. If it's something else, though..."Wang: "60% is almost impossible. Nobody is that good. Is he dealing with you or one of your runners?"Big: "Me. I deal with like 10 people. 6 of them are other locals, 3 are guys that play over our max, and then this kid."Wang: "Okay. Give me whatever you've got and I'll take a look." Big: "I'll email you his sheet. Same one you gave me. A few changes. But it's got everything."Wang: "I'll take a look. Not sure I can help, though."Big: "Do what you can. Call me Thursday. Tell me what you've got."So I just got home and looked at this guy's action. Big missed a few subtleties -- yeah, the guy's running at almost 60%, but based on the sides he's playing, his implied break-even point is almost 55%, whereas if he were taking all -110/-110 sides, it would be 52.4%, give a take a few fractions of a penny -- but either way, he's really killing it, well beyond what anybody who isn't a top-notch handicapper could hope for. Nobody's that good, really, and if he were, he probably wouldn't be be playing at a shop that had -110/-110 pricing. I've been looking at it for about 45 minutes now, and I can barely see a pattern. He favors dogs and unders, but not so much that you could exploit him by shading. Sometimes he'll have 4 plays in a week. Sometimes 1. Sometimes none. He doesn't always play the max, either. If his median wager is, say, 100x, he'll make about 50% of his bets at that number, 25% below -- ranging from 40x to 80x-- and 25% around 150x, which is the max. He has also played a few Teasers (aka Dips), which are almost always sucker bets. (A football teaser is pretty simple: you pick two games (or totals), and you can move the spread 6 points in your favor, but you have to win BOTH to cash your wager. So, for example, say you tease the Bears +3 and the Patriots-14.5. You get Bears +9 and Patriots-8.5, but you need to hit both numbers or you lose.) Based on everything else, these teasers really don't jive with his action. So far I have reached the following conclusions:1) This guy knows what he is doing. He is not getting lucky. 2) This guy understands math. His bet-sizing indicates he can somehow quantify his edge. The sample size might be too small to conclude this with any kind of certainty, but his ROI is pretty well correlated with his bet-size. 3) He is not a straight-handicapper. Sometimes he's playing really, really public sides that no respectable player would take, and sometimes he's doing it for very large amounts. Nationally televised overs, stuff like that. 4) I don't know what the eff is happening. Getting this figured out would be nice for Big Bookie relations, but even if I can't decipher what he's doing, Big will understand. I am, however, going to be looking at this until I get it solved. It's bothering the crap out of me. If I don't have it in a week, I might post some component data here, see if somebody who is better at pattern recognition can find something I'm missing. Regardless, it's nice having Big Bookie around again. There's nothing better than having another guy in the business with whom to commiserate. Plus, he can pretty much get me a beej whenever I want it. This post was not supposed to ramble this much. D'oh.

[LongLiveYorke 38]

+

[RhinestoneCowboy 2]

Sitting in the hospital with a wife just about ready to start pushing. Been up since 4am yesterday with no sleep besides a couple 10 min. naps. Shit just got real.

[LadyGrey 6]

Sitting in the hospital with a wife just about ready to start pushing. Been up since 4am yesterday with no sleep besides a couple 10 min. naps. Shit just got real.

What's wrong with her?

[speedz99 145]

4) I don't know what the eff is happening.

I was almost positive this story was giong to end with the gambler being your protege from the old card room.

[The mobile flu 0]

what can you "find"? What are the options for what he's "doing"? I don't know what the possibilities are aside from him just being a good player.

[leftygolfer 7]

Good job speedz.

Well now I wish that it was intentional. I'd recommend taking a sick day if you lose them at the end of the calendar year. You're unlikely to get legitimately sick for more than a few days in the next three months, it sucks missing out on sick days, and it can be awkward trying to take them all in December, when your boss will think/know that you're lying.

If one of our employees doesn't take all of their sick days, we pay them double the amount of unused sick days. Avoids situations like this.

What's wrong with her?

Gonna have a little Cowboy/Cowgirl I believe.Just remember no meat at those Adventist hospitals.Tip o' cap to the Reds RR. I still would like to smack Dusty's toothpick tough.BIA/TB/Wang - Been a punter for 20years. Will take a look at the info. My take - some hot shot who has gotten lucky early on.

[mk 11]

I might post some component data here, see if somebody who is better at pattern recognition can find something I'm missing.

I'll take a look, as long as you let me co-write your sports betting screenplay.edit: i just remembered--wasn't there a sports betting movie with pacino and mcconaughey that sucked ass? could you make a good one?