River Decision 1

[screech 0]

Villian just sat down. No read.Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is MP with [Js], [Td]. 1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.Flop: (7.40 SB) [5s], [Th], [6d] (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.Turn: (6.70 BB) [Jd] (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.River: (12.70 BB) [7c] (2 players)I picked the worst option. So which one is best?Similar situation in my other post.

[Absolute 0]

bet/call

[screech 0]

bet/call

This is what I did. I think it's wrong.

[Absolute 0]

Why?Its AA-QQ a ton.If he has TT or JJm so be it.

[mrdannyg 274]

Villian just sat down. No read.Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (5 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is MP with [Js], [Td]. 1 fold, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls.Flop: (7.40 SB) [5s], [Th], [6d] (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.Turn: (6.70 BB) [Jd] (2 players)Hero checks, Button bets, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, Hero calls.River: (12.70 BB) [7c] (2 players)I picked the worst option. So which one is best?Similar situation in my other post.

cap turn, lead river. probably bet/raise, but maybe bet/call.with no cap on turn, you cannot check river. too easy for villain to check behind on a scare card. bet/call at least. i probably bet/raise, but i can be maniacal with top two. apparently in poker, you can have something called "trips" or a "set" but i lost my hand strength chart, so i ignore them.

[screech 0]

Why?Its AA-QQ a ton.If he has TT or JJm so be it.

If he has AA-QQ, don't you think he will bet anyway?

[Verdimme 0]

I dont see why you are not capping the turn here. JJ and TT are more unlikely then KK or AA based on combos.

[Absolute 0]

Yes, so your river bet is a value bet.Bet/call gives you more value than check/call (if this is your consideration)

[screech 0]

cap turn, lead river. probably bet/raise, but maybe bet/call.with no cap on turn, you cannot check river. too easy for villain to check behind on a scare card. bet/call at least. i probably bet/raise, but i can be maniacal with top two. apparently in poker, you can have something called "trips" or a "set" but i lost my hand strength chart, so i ignore them.

I think you're wrong on this one.His hand range is pretty narrow when he 3-bets the turn. He either has a set, an overpair, or is running a bad semi-bluff with AK (unlikely).Because his hand is so transparent, it is much better for me to call the turn 3-bet so that I can see if the board pairs the river. I'll save a bet when the board pairs.He will almost always bet AA-QQ on the river. I can then c/r if the board doesn't pair, and the same bets go in.FWIW, I think the river is a check/call since I can't fold to a 3-bet. It's very close though, and it may well be a check/raise.

[Absolute 0]

I think you're wrong on this one.His hand range is pretty narrow when he 3-bets the turn. He either has a set, an overpair, or is running a bad semi-bluff with AK (unlikely).Because his hand is so transparent, it is much better for me to call the turn 3-bet so that I can see if the board pairs the river. I'll save a bet when the board pairs.He will almost always bet AA-QQ on the river. I can then c/r if the board doesn't pair, and the same bets go in.FWIW, I think the river is a check/call since I can't fold to a 3-bet. It's very close though, and it may well be a check/raise.

I think a C/R is easily the worst option.River check/raises are seldom correct, and especially incorrect here.I don't see how this is anything but a value bet on the river.

[mrdannyg 274]

I think you're wrong on this one.His hand range is pretty narrow when he 3-bets the turn. He either has a set, an overpair, or is running a bad semi-bluff with AK (unlikely).Because his hand is so transparent, it is much better for me to call the turn 3-bet so that I can see if the board pairs the river. I'll save a bet when the board pairs.He will almost always bet AA-QQ on the river. I can then c/r if the board doesn't pair, and the same bets go in.FWIW, I think the river is a check/call since I can't fold to a 3-bet. It's very close though, and it may well be a check/raise.

he is about equally likely to 3-bet a set or an overpair there, but he definitely does a set. I think AJs-AKs are decent options too. but he is probably more likely to 3-bet a set, so let's say the overcard/flush combos offset that likelihood.so he is on an overpair or set, and they are equally likely. but is he 3-betting with 55 or 66? not that likely. TT and JJ are only one combo because of your cards.i think AA-QQ is by far the most likely here. that means im ahead, so i cap because i don't like to get fancy. if the river pairs the board, i c/c.i think you contradict yourself though. you say you can save a bet if the board pairs, since he will bet AA-QQ on a non-pairing river and you can C/R. but then you say the river, which doesn't pair, is a check/call.i cap turn because im not fancy and i like to get bets in while ahead. that makes a river lead even easier.since this is a "river decision" though:i think you are ahead way too often to check/call.i think the river is too scary to check/raise, since he may check behind, and you rarely get 3-bet if you're ahead, but also cannot fold to one either.i don't know SH play that well, so i don't know how unlikely an unknown is to 3-bet with 55 or 66. if its not that likely, i bet/raise this river, and make maximize the value of my 5-outer against his KK.

[Zach6668 513]

I really don't see any hands that he's 3-betting preflop that we aren't beating.TT, JJ are so rare here, as there is only one combo of each left, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AJs are much more likely, IMO.I don't mind pumping this pot on the river.- Zach

[BoBetter 0]

I really don't see any hands that he's 3-betting preflop that we aren't beating.TT, JJ are so rare here, as there is only one combo of each left, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AJs are much more likely, IMO.I don't mind pumping this pot on the river.- Zach

I agree with the bet/call on the river. I'm definitely pumping on the turn here, which should make the river decision easier.Also, from what I've experienced there are a good numbers of players that will isolate by three betting on the button with small pocket pairs. I also think KQ and KJ are a possibility depending on the opponent.What is the consensus with my above statement. Do you guys find that happening often? I play mostly 1/2 and 2/4 SH

[screech 0]

I think a C/R is easily the worst option.River check/raises are seldom correct, and especially incorrect here.I don't see how this is anything but a value bet on the river.

Why do you think a c/r is the worst option?Surely he's not going to take a free showdown with an overpair.If you think I'm good here >67% of the time, a check/raise is clearly more valuable then a bet/call, since villain bets every time. If I'm not good 67% of the tiem, then a check/call is best.I have a few questions:1) for those saying cpa the turn, why? Yes I have top 2 here, but that's not a good enough reason. If I can accurately pin down villains range to a set/overpair, how is capping the turn better than calling the turn and c/ring a safe river?2) for those saying it's a bet/call on the river, how is it an easy bet/call? Villain will always bet the river if I check to him. Anyone LAggy enough to 3-bet this turn with an overpair is not going to take a free showdown with that overpair. So, if I have enough of a hand to bet/call, check/raising should be more profitable. If I don't have a hand that's good enough to check/raise, I should check/call.

[Verdimme 0]

1) for those saying cpa the turn, why? Yes I have top 2 here, but that's not a good enough reason. If I can accurately pin down villains range to a set/overpair, how is capping the turn better than calling the turn and c/ring a safe river?

Now looking at it a little bit deeper, i like your line better. Waiting for a safe river should be the biggest (and only?) motivation for that right? I agree that if he 3bets the turn with an overpair, you can expect him to bet the river.

[mrdannyg 274]

I think a C/R is easily the worst option.River check/raises are seldom correct, and especially incorrect here.I don't see how this is anything but a value bet on the river.

Why do you think a c/r is the worst option?Surely he's not going to take a free showdown with an overpair.If you think I'm good here >67% of the time, a check/raise is clearly more valuable then a bet/call, since villain bets every time. If I'm not good 67% of the tiem, then a check/call is best.I have a few questions:1) for those saying cpa the turn, why? Yes I have top 2 here, but that's not a good enough reason. If I can accurately pin down villains range to a set/overpair, how is capping the turn better than calling the turn and c/ring a safe river?2) for those saying it's a bet/call on the river, how is it an easy bet/call? Villain will always bet the river if I check to him. Anyone LAggy enough to 3-bet this turn with an overpair is not going to take a free showdown with that overpair. So, if I have enough of a hand to bet/call, check/raising should be more profitable. If I don't have a hand that's good enough to check/raise, I should check/call.

I disagree you always get a river bet from someone who 3-bets the turn. many of the posters on here do exactly the opposite - 3-betting the turn, in position, while likely ahead, then checking the river when a scare card comes out. its the ol' free-showdown 3-bet, and he can always bet the river if a 6 comes off instead.you also don't get a bet from AJs-AKs, who may well 3-bet that turn.if you can pin down his range to a set/overpair:calling turn, CR'ing river against a set gets you 3-bet by a set (almost always) and rarely 3-bet by an overpair. so you lose a bet while behind and miss one while ahead. he also sometimes checks behind the river, so you lose another two bets there while ahead.capping turn and bet/calling river, you lose the same amount to a set, but often win an extra or more against an overpair, if he raises the river.basically, it seems like you lose the same amount to a set, but if he does have an overpair, you win the percentage of a bet that he raises an unpairing river.that was a bit convoluted, but i hope you get my points. basically, it seems like calling turn and CR'ing river loses you the same when behind as capping and bet/calling, but wins you less.it does allow you to save a bet if he has an overpair and the board pairs, but i think the above situations overcome that, since the only set he can have is 55, 66, or one combo of TT, JJ. so an overpair is most likely, and i think you win far less with the call, C/R line.

[screech 0]

I disagree you always get a river bet from someone who 3-bets the turn. many of the posters on here do exactly the opposite - 3-betting the turn, in position, while likely ahead, then checking the river when a scare card comes out. its the ol' free-showdown 3-bet, and he can always bet the river if a 6 comes off instead.you also don't get a bet from AJs-AKs, who may well 3-bet that turn.

It is highly unlikely that he will check behind the turn with AJs. If he's aggressive enough to 3-bet the turn with that hand, he will bet the river. Notice that AJs has no draw possibility, so 3-betting for a free showdown is dumb. Also, AKs/AQs rarely play this way, and if they do, they bluff the river when they miss. So those hands aren't a concern either.Basically, the free showdown play just doesn't make sense on this board. The chance that he's taking a free showdown are so slim that the extra value I get from capping the turn does not make up for the value I lose when the board pairs the river. Any arguement based on the fear villain will take a free showdown here has little merit.

if you can pin down his range to a set/overpair:calling turn, CR'ing river against a set gets you 3-bet by a set (almost always) and rarely 3-bet by an overpair. so you lose a bet while behind and miss one while ahead. he also sometimes checks behind the river, so you lose another two bets there while ahead.

So lets add up the bets that go in after he 3-bets the turn with the different lines:1) I cap the turn and lead if the board doesnt pair - I put in 3-bets when I'm behind, and win 2 when I'm ahead.2) I call the turn and c/r if the board doesn't pair - I put in 3-bets when I'm behind, and win 2 when I'm ahead.Ok. So nothing different between the two lines there. I win/lose the same regardless.3) I cap the turn, and c/c if the board does pair - I put in 2 bets as a huge underdog.4) I call the turn and c/c if the board pairs the river - I put in 1 bet as a huge underdog.This is where my line of calling the turn reaps its rewards. I save a full BB when the board pairs. Since the chance that he checks behind are so slim, that full BB that I save is well worth waiting until the river.

capping turn and bet/calling river, you lose the same amount to a set, but often win an extra or more against an overpair, if he raises the river.

Often win more against an overpair? What type of players do you play against? If I get raised on the river, I'm almost always toast. If I cap and get raised on the river, there's about a 1% chance he has an overpair.

basically, it seems like you lose the same amount to a set, but if he does have an overpair, you win the percentage of a bet that he raises an unpairing river.

See above. Your logic is backwards. I actually save a bet vs an overpair.

[mrdannyg 274]

It is highly unlikely that he will check behind the turn with AJs. If he's aggressive enough to 3-bet the turn with that hand, he will bet the river. Notice that AJs has no draw possibility, so 3-betting for a free showdown is dumb. Also, AKs/AQs rarely play this way, and if they do, they bluff the river when they miss. So those hands aren't a concern either.Basically, the free showdown play just doesn't make sense on this board. The chance that he's taking a free showdown are so slim that the extra value I get from capping the turn does not make up for the value I lose when the board pairs the river. Any arguement based on the fear villain will take a free showdown here has little merit.So lets add up the bets that go in after he 3-bets the turn with the different lines:1) I cap the turn and lead if the board doesnt pair - I put in 3-bets when I'm behind, and win 2 when I'm ahead.2) I call the turn and c/r if the board doesn't pair - I put in 3-bets when I'm behind, and win 2 when I'm ahead.Ok. So nothing different between the two lines there. I win/lose the same regardless.3) I cap the turn, and c/c if the board does pair - I put in 2 bets as a huge underdog.4) I call the turn and c/c if the board pairs the river - I put in 1 bet as a huge underdog.This is where my line of calling the turn reaps its rewards. I save a full BB when the board pairs. Since the chance that he checks behind are so slim, that full BB that I save is well worth waiting until the river.Often win more against an overpair? What type of players do you play against? If I get raised on the river, I'm almost always toast. If I cap and get raised on the river, there's about a 1% chance he has an overpair.See above. Your logic is backwards. I actually save a bet vs an overpair.

i love making these long posts, but i hate reading them.im having trouble with the stages, since it seems like the conclusions from 3/4 are faulty somehow, i just can't demonstrate why.basically, i think our assumptions are just too different. you said that an overpair always 3-bets the turn, always bets the river when checked to, but never raised the river UI. i don't agree to those assumptions, and i think the fractions of a bet make a difference. mainly though, i think for this specific hand, the chances of a set are slim, and you are nearly always ahead on this turn. i cap it, and get the equity in while i have it. if the board pairs, then i'd have saved myself an extra bet by not capping, but i still should have done it.

[screech 0]

im having trouble with the stages, since it seems like the conclusions from 3/4 are faulty somehow, i just can't demonstrate why.

That's because there's nothing wrong with them.

basically, i think our assumptions are just too different. you said that an overpair always 3-bets the turn, always bets the river when checked to, but never raised the river UI. i don't agree to those assumptions, and i think the fractions of a bet make a difference.

You're right, a fraction of a bet does make a difference. I would guess that if he plays an overpair this aggressively, he will value bet the river 90-100% of the time. So that means we miss out on 0-0.1BB's by not capping.But that doesn't tell the whole story. If he has an overpair, he has 6 obvious outs, an 2 hidden outs against me. The board will pair 13.6% of the time. That means 13.6% of the time, I save a BB. That more than covers the slim chance that he takes a free showdown.And if an A/K/Q falls, I have an easy check/call since the chance that he now has a better hand has increased. I realize it may seem weird to play top 2 so passively, and it's rarely correct. However, when you are able to pinpoint your opponents range so precisely, it becomes clearer.

mainly though, i think for this specific hand, the chances of a set are slim, and you are nearly always ahead on this turn.

Why do you think the chances of a set are so slim? I think it's quite likely he has a set on the turn when the 3rd bet goes in. Most opponents correctly don't go apeshit heads up with just an overpair after their opponent shows so much strength.

i cap it, and get the equity in while i have it. if the board pairs, then i'd have saved myself an extra bet by not capping, but i still should have done it

You haven't made any convincing arguments as to why you should cap besides the old "me have two pair, me raise" line of thinking.

[mrdannyg 274]

Why do you think the chances of a set are so slim? I think it's quite likely he has a set on the turn when the 3rd bet goes in. Most opponents correctly don't go apeshit heads up with just an overpair after their opponent shows so much strength. because his set possibilities are the one-combo of TT or JJ, or that he 3-bet 55 or 66 PF. im ignoring 77. none of those are likely IMO.You haven't made any convincing arguments as to why you should cap besides the old "me have two pair, me raise" line of thinking.

i think i made some good ones in my long post, but i can barely stand to read it so i just can't tell.im just having trouble with the stages - i can't figure out what's wrong with this:it seems like capping or not capping the turn does not change your river play. either way we are bet/calling river. and since we are likely ahead on this turn, not capping it seems to be giving up equity edge.what am i missing?

[screech 0]

because his set possibilities are the one-combo of TT or JJ, or that he 3-bet 55 or 66 PF. im ignoring 77. none of those are likely IMO.

That's a good point about the set possibilities. Based on card combos alone, it doesn't seem that likely. He probalby 3-bets 66/55 half the time, so that only leaves 5 set combinations to 18 overpair combinations.However, once he 3-bets the turn, we have to give a lot more weight to the possibility that he has a set, since an overpair will usually slow down to my OOP turn check/raise after he's shown so much strength. I think an overpair just calls my turn c/r more than 2/3s of the time, which would put the overpair/set distribution at about 50/50.

im just having trouble with the stages - i can't figure out what's wrong with this:it seems like capping or not capping the turn does not change your river play. either way we are bet/calling river. and since we are likely ahead on this turn, not capping it seems to be giving up equity edge.what am i missing?

That I'm checking the river, not bet/calling it. Even if you put the overpair:set ratio at 80:20, I should still check the river (with the intention to raise).If I cap the turn, I'm going to c/c when the board pairs. That will happen roughly 14% of the time, and when it does, I lose that extra bet I put in on the turn.If I cap the turn, he's rarely going to raise the river with an overpair. So after the 3rd bet goes in on the turn, I make 2BB's when the board doesn't pair. I make the exact same amount of bets by calling the turn and c/ring the river.If I just call the turn, and the board pairs, I can save myself at least 1BB. Or, if I have a good read on my opponent, I can fold the river and save 2BB (unliikely! ).