Short Stacked Scenario

[macphec 0]

Live tourney top 8 get paid. 30 players left.I'm in SB with $7500. Blinds are $750 $1500 for an M of just over 3.Now playing 7 handed and a new player who just moved to my table moves all in for just over $8k from utg. Aggro utg +1 thinks for a couple secs and moves in over the top for another $1000 or so.Folded to me in SB and I look at 88.Call or fold?Also what is your thought process when trying to decide whether or not to call here?Thanks in advance!

[Raindog 0]

I don't claim to be any good at MTTs but am working at this part of my game, so let me throw out my opinion and see what others think.To me this is an easy fold. That was my immediate reaction when reading your question. As for analysis...ok well let me give it a shot...If even one of them has an overpair, you are a huge dog. Even if they both just have overcards, you basically have about 1/3 equity (perhaps slightly more).Sure, its POSSIBLE that one of them has a smaller pair but...the first all in is from first position, the guy coming over the top is UTG+1. This is a bit different than a possible button all in steal. With TWO people all in you have to give at least one of them credit for a real hand. Pocket Eights is hardly a powerhouse to be overcalling an all-in bet. Further, you are in the SB now, meaning that you have another orbit coming up in which to hopefully find a better spot to go all-in when you have some fold equity or a better hand.So...easy fold.

[throwemaway 0]

I agree..You have to fold here..You have no read on UTG raiser.. Next hand your on the button and have an orbit it or two around the table to find a better spot..

[gobears 0]

I would fold the 8's here even with an M of 3. With 8's, there's a good chance that at least one of the two players has an overpair or have at least three overcards over your 8's. If it was only other player pushing, then I would call with the 8's since your M is so low. With two players in ahead of you, in this situation with the low M, I would be pushing with 10's and AK+.Although your M is low, you are in the SB and will get another orbit before the blinds hit you again.

[Mercury69 3]

Doesn't matter how agro these guys are, chances are very good that they have at least one overcard to you. Head's up you have a much better shot. Against two guys, let them work each other and one can go home. Save your chps for TT or better in this situation, at very least.

[gregdon8 0]

I fold this hand and wait for an opportunity to steal and add 25% to your stack with the blinds aloneif others have overs, you are currently the best hand but are not going to win the hand the majority of the time...i think you are around 35-37% fav

[timwakefield 68]

Definite fold. Look at their possible holdings:They both have an overpair: you're pretty screwed, although this isn't the terrifically likely.Either one of them has an overpair: you're pretty screwed, and this seems very likely.Neither has an overpair, but there are 4 overs (somethink like KJ vs AQ): again, you're pretty screwed, and this seems fairly likely.Neither has an overpair, but there are 3 overs (something like A7 vs KQ): you're still not looking very good, but do have a fair chance of winning...again this seems fairly likely.Neither has an overpair, but there are 2 overs (something like K7 vs A6 or 66 vs AK): you're doing well, getting well over the 3/1 that you'd be getting on your money, this situation seems somewhat likely. Neither has an overpair, but there is 1 over (something like 66 vs A7): you're killing it, but this situation seems very unlikely.Both have underpairs: you're killing it, but this is extremely likely.

[Drwnded 0]

I don't claim to be any good at MTTs but am working at this part of my game, so let me throw out my opinion and see what others think.To me this is an easy fold. That was my immediate reaction when reading your question. As for analysis...ok well let me give it a shot...If even one of them has an overpair, you are a huge dog. Even if they both just have overcards, you basically have about 1/3 equity (perhaps slightly more).Sure, its POSSIBLE that one of them has a smaller pair but...the first all in is from first position, the guy coming over the top is UTG+1. This is a bit different than a possible button all in steal. With TWO people all in you have to give at least one of them credit for a real hand. Pocket Eights is hardly a powerhouse to be overcalling an all-in bet. Further, you are in the SB now, meaning that you have another orbit coming up in which to hopefully find a better spot to go all-in when you have some fold equity or a better hand.So...easy fold.

I agree with what you say here, except I doubt he has quite that much equity. If he did, you could make an argument for calling since he will triple up if he wins the hand and b/c your M is so low.With regards to your equity in the hand, I ran some numbers on poker stove out of curiosity. If you assume pretty much the best case range of hands for your opponents as below, you still only have about 28.6% equity in the hand, and you need at least 33.3% to be breakeven.Assume UTG has a random hand (i.e., he's on a total first-in steal b/c of his low M)Assume UTG+1 has a pair 88 or better, A10s or better, KQs, or AKo.Your equity: 28.6%.In reality, I would guess it's even worse than that, b/c probably UTG has an above average hand, and UTG+1 has a hand at the upper end of the range listed above.

[macphec 0]

Thanks for the help guys.

[mk 11]

I agree with what others have said. Just want to add that I would rather wait for an opportunity to have first-in vig and push with 72o than call 2 opponents with 88. With 5x BB you should still have a decent amount of FE against all but the largest stacks.

[amarillotg 0]

i don't think that this is a clear cut fold.some quick math (im at work so some of the percentages could be off)1) 30% of the time you are facing 4 overs. your equity would be 32% against those hands.= 9.6%2) 30% of the time you are facing 3 overs. your equity would be 42% against those hands.= 12.6%3) 20% of the time you are facing 2 overs + an overpair. your equity would be 18% against those hands.= 3.6%4) 10% chance you are facing 2 overs + an underpair. your equity would be 44% against those hands.= 4.4%5) 10% chance you face 2 overpairs. your equity would be 15% against these hands.= 1.5%totals - 9.6 + 12.6 + 3.6 + 4.4 + 1.5 = 31.7% or 2.1-1main pot (that you can win) 2250 + 6750 + 6750 = 15750 or 2.3-1again, the percentages may be slightly skewed but hopefully my point comes across that calling an all-in here is not a horrible gamble.personally, i would think seriously about calling here. with an M of 3 and being so far out of the money i would be looking to make a move.if i were only 3 or 4 spots out of the money, i would fold.if i were a medium stack, say an M of 10 or so, i would fold.just some of my thinking.

[copernicus 0]

This far from the money I think I would play the hand. UTGs push could be anything and the next player in, knowing how weak UTG might be, can play with almost any A, any pair, two broadways. Often the Aces will be duplicated here and you may be facing 6 outs total between the two hands, with one of them an undercard to the A.That puts you at about 30% to win, getting decent odds, and having a chance to move way up in the ladder and having a shot at the final table.

[macphec 0]

i don't think that this is a clear cut fold.some quick math (im at work so some of the percentages could be off)1) 30% of the time you are facing 4 overs. your equity would be 32% against those hands.= 9.6%2) 30% of the time you are facing 3 overs. your equity would be 42% against those hands.= 12.6%3) 20% of the time you are facing 2 overs + an overpair. your equity would be 18% against those hands.= 3.6%4) 10% chance you are facing 2 overs + an underpair. your equity would be 44% against those hands.= 4.4%5) 10% chance you face 2 overpairs. your equity would be 15% against these hands.= 1.5%totals - 9.6 + 12.6 + 3.6 + 4.4 + 1.5 = 31.7% or 2.1-1main pot (that you can win) 2250 + 6750 + 6750 = 15750 or 2.3-1again, the percentages may be slightly skewed but hopefully my point comes across that calling an all-in here is not a horrible gamble.personally, i would think seriously about calling here. with an M of 3 and being so far out of the money i would be looking to make a move.if i were only 3 or 4 spots out of the money, i would fold.if i were a medium stack, say an M of 10 or so, i would fold.just some of my thinking.

I love this analysis Copernicus. Situations like this really require some math and I think you're one of the best posters on this forum when it comes to that.The process you went through above is basically what I did when thinking of whether to call or fold (more or less ) It is so much easier to do this analysis after the fact when you're thinking clearly and no one's calling the clock on you!Anywway, I really had no clue what utg's push meant. He was only at the table for 3 hands prior to this and hadn't played any. I was at least 75% sure that utg+1 had broadway cards, prolly AK. I also figured that utg wouldn't have pushed w AA, KK, or QQ as he'd want a little action with these hands.being this far out of the $$ is what finally compelled me to call and gamble to triple my stack.So I made the call and utg flips up AJs and utg flips AKo. One of the best scenarios possible for my hand and I'm 42% to win the hand and triple up.flop was AKx and no help on turn or river.It's been buggin me for 3 days now.Thanks again guys

[amarillotg 0]

I love this analysis Copernicus. Situations like this really require some math and I think you're one of the best posters on this forum when it comes to that.The process you went through above is basically what I did when thinking of whether to call or fold (more or less ) It is so much easier to do this analysis after the fact when you're thinking clearly and no one's calling the clock on you!Anywway, I really had no clue what utg's push meant. He was only at the table for 3 hands prior to this and hadn't played any. I was at least 75% sure that utg+1 had broadway cards, prolly AK. I also figured that utg wouldn't have pushed w AA, KK, or QQ as he'd want a little action with these hands.being this far out of the $$ is what finally compelled me to call and gamble to triple my stack.So I made the call and utg flips up AJs and utg flips AKo. One of the best scenarios possible for my hand and I'm 42% to win the hand and triple up.flop was AKx and no help on turn or river.It's been buggin me for 3 days now.Thanks again guys

copernicus is a great poster and an asset to the forum but......that was my post you quoted.

[GABMAD 0]

I think it's a fold. Here is my reasoning...You are either dominated, or you're in a coinflip situation...but wait...it's not even a coin flip situation because there are 4 overs, or 2 overs and an overpair. What would you be hoping for here? 33 and A K? You are still an underdog. Seeing how you only have 50 committed fold and save the 7450 for a better opportunity. You never want to go all in with mid pockets against 2 players, EXPECIALLY an UTG all in and a reraise all in. You might be ahead, but most likely you're gambling your tournament life and will most likely lose.

[macphec 0]

copernicus is a great poster and an asset to the forum but......that was my post you quoted.

LOL, OOPSI respect your postings too amarillo!

[copernicus 0]

I think it's a fold. Here is my reasoning...You are either dominated, or you're in a coinflip situation...but wait...it's not even a coin flip situation because there are 4 overs, or 2 overs and an overpair. What would you be hoping for here? 33 and A K? You are still an underdog. Seeing how you only have 50 committed fold and save the 7450 for a better opportunity. You never want to go all in with mid pockets against 2 players, EXPECIALLY an UTG all in and a reraise all in. You might be ahead, but most likely you're gambling your tournament life and will most likely lose.

Everything you say is correct...except the concluson, imo. While you are most likely to lose, you are getting about the correct pot odds to make the call, and this is one of those hands that can really change your tournament prospects without taking too much the worst of it. This may be the quintessential "accumulator" vs "survivor" kind of hand, and I think Ive made the transition to accumulator in MTTs (Still decidedly a survivor in STTs). Have I gone to far to the "dark side"?

[macphec 0]

Everything you say is correct...except the concluson, imo. While you are most likely to lose, you are getting about the correct pot odds to make the call, and this is one of those hands that can really change your tournament prospects without taking too much the worst of it. This may be the quintessential "accumulator" vs "survivor" kind of hand, and I think Ive made the transition to accumulator in MTTs (Still decidedly a survivor in STTs). Have I gone to far to the "dark side"?

I was getting almost exactly the correct odds to make the call given what they ended up having. Obviously I didnt know for sure that I was up against only 4 overs (A, K, J) but even if you throw in an underpair and AK into the mix I still think it's a marginal call. (Making up for the times I'm looking at an overpair)

[copernicus 0]

I was getting almost exactly the correct odds to make the call given what they ended up having. Obviously I didnt know for sure that I was up against only 4 overs (A, K, J) but even if you throw in an underpair and AK into the mix I still think it's a marginal call. (Making up for the times I'm looking at an overpair)

Yes, I meant the correct odds to call against a reasonable range of hands as noted in my original response, not the specific holdings.

[amarillotg 0]

This may be the quintessential "accumulator" vs "survivor" kind of hand, and I think Ive made the transition to accumulator in MTTs (Still decidedly a survivor in STTs). Have I gone to far to the "dark side"?

no way. (to the dark side comment) imo, becoming a hunter when in and around the money is the optimal strategy for final tabling and making a splash in mtt's. unfortunately for me, i thought this would also be so for stt's. it's not. stt's are all about survival and making top 3.