** is this a easy laydown or easy call?

[Royal_Tour 0]

Been playing the 30+3's regularily on FCP, up to 7k early on 2nd place until the 1st break, dropped a bit of chips down to 6k but stil in like 9th place at 1st break.blinds 100/200 i get AK in UTG + 1 UTG pushes all in for 600 or so, I re-raise.everyone folds and we're HU, he shows A,8 off he wins, (yes bad luck).then a bit later i get JJ on the button, folds to me, I'm at about 5,500 chips at this point,I raise to 800, SB folds BB pushes all in for like 3k more, which would really cripple me.Should i lay the jacks down, or call?? Started with 138 players, 40 players left, avg stack is 4.5k, and chip leader has about 15k Top 10 get paid.

[copernicus 0]

Neither. :twisted: This is close imo. If you put him on 99+, AJ+ (maybe a little loose?) you are a 53:47 favorite. If you tighten him up just a bit to 99+, AQs+, AK then you are a 52:48 dog.To me its a little early to be taking a coin flip that drops me from a big stack to an average stack, but I can see others saying they will take that risk.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Neither. :twisted: This is close imo. If you put him on 99+, AJ+ (maybe a little loose?) you are a 53:47 favorite. If you tighten him up just a bit to 99+, AQs+, AK then you are a 52:48 dog.To me its a little early to be taking a coin flip that drops me from a big stack to an average stack, but I can see others saying they will take that risk.

i very much aggree, Because this is an MTT, and soon after the 1st break lots of new players are being moved around, I have basically ZERO reads on this guy except either A - he thinks i'm trying to steal his blinds, or B - He is over betting a really strong hand hoping i will call. Granted, he could very well be playing Ak or AQ aggressively hoping I dont have AA or KK and I fold, or its a race.I do feel like Jacks are a good hand in this spot with his stack slightly under average and blinds increasing to 150/300but like you said, it is fairly early to be taking risks.

[therrinn 0]

I think I'd make the call with the jacks with that in spot. The chances that he'd play QQ/KK/AA that fast are pretty small. I think more then likely you're up against a mid-strong ace, or 88-TT.

[gobears 0]

I think that I would call here - I agree with Therrinn that A's thru Q's probably plays it slower to get more chips into the pot; maybe a min-raise.BB could be putting you on a steal and the push feels like a resteal - even if he has something, I think that you're probably ahead.

[Royal_Tour 0]

Go bears, same thinking i had,and it was that thinking that made me feel willing to gamble, although i prayed worst case senerio would be AK,and it was, and hit spiked a K.but, i still think calling is correct, although i'm hesitant to make such risky plays at that point in the tourney

[DougieG 0]

I think with 5500 and the blinds going up to 150-3 youre already in a average stack situation. With only the top 10 paying I would probably take the risk with JJ there. If you win it then you're probly in the top 10 at this point, or close, and you would have enough chips to start splashing around near the bubble and really build your stack into a contender.The only exception to this is if the tourneys on FCP tend to run very soft. I know that I played Stars for a long time and had some success in tourneys, not a ton but enough, then switched to InterPoker to chase the crypto bonus and a large number of the tournament players are very weak. In this sort of field I don't mind having an average stack getting down to the last couple tables because I feel like I can pick up some pots without having to show down, or catching any big hands. In conclusion, I'd call his all-in here with JJ and hope for 66-TT. This sort of play isnt all that unusual because the bb probably thinks youre stealing his blind. Anyway, folding here isnt so bad either, it'd just be a shame to look back when you went out in 13th at this hand and feel like you could have lost a real opportunity

[copernicus 0]

Go bears, same thinking i had,and it was that thinking that made me feel willing to gamble, although i prayed worst case senerio would be AK,and it was, and hit spiked a K.but, i still think calling is correct, although i'm hesitant to make such risky plays at that point in the tourney

Like I said..close call and I wouldnt risk it.Think results not decisions. :twisted: (sorry rocket, couldnt resist)Seriously tho, I think y'all are discounting AA, KK, QQ much too much. Theres 1100 in the pot and BB has 3k. There is no amount that he can n meaningfully raise that doesnt obviously pot commit him. Any bet that size screams monster, and he's likely to collect more pushing than raising. His best option with a monster besides pushing is limp and check-raise the flop. That carries some potential of picking up 800-1000 more chips than pushing but what would that take to occur? You would have to be stealing, you would have to be willing to cb to his check but fold to his all in getting excellent odds. That doesnt sound like a very likely scenario, so maybe on average it picks up a 300 chips.On the other hand if he tries the limp and check raise with even a random hand and he has AA, KK, QQ you have a 20% chance of beating him, and most of those scenarios have you catching enough of the flop that its a mandatory call with the odds you would be getting. So say theres a 15% chance of losing with the limp check-raise. Theres 1100 in the pot that hes risking, so it loses on average 165 chips. So on average his limp check raise nets him at best 135 chips...not enough to make the likelihood of a slowplayed monster all that likely.

[jmar 0]

QQ, KK, AA seem very possible to me. That's how I would have played them ...

[timwakefield 68]

Call. There's a good chance he has AK or worse...also he is some % suspicious of your bet from the button, so you have to consider the chances that he has any pair or even rags. If you had raised from early position or middle position it might be more of a fold, but a raise from the button won't get much repect...so I call.