the future of the poker economy? (long)

[Nate The Great 0]

OK so I am a constant lurker but infrequent poster. Most of you regulars have an excellent grasp of most aspects of poker in general and I was wondering if any of you had any thoughts on the following idea. It is obvious that the last two years have seen dramatic changes in the poker world in general. There are more people playing poker, both online and in casinos, than there have ever been before. This has obviously added a very large amount of money into the poker economy, which I understand to be comprised of the total amount of money people put into play in poker games in the world. What I have wondered however is what the net effect of this will be over the long run. I don't think it is new or controversial to say that there are two opposite forces at work. The first force that is working is that there are vast numbers of new players constantly putting all of this extra money into the poker economy while playing at a level that will guarantee that they lose whatever they put in if they play for a long enough period of time. The only difference between these and the contributors of the past is that there are more of them and the internet allows there mistakes and bad play to be exponentially worse in many instances. So this is the first thing happening. The second force is that as a result of the above listed situation, more people who in ages past may have done something else with their free time or career choice, are instead turning their intelligence and ability towards the poker table as a way to make money. This is the situation that many on this forum and across the world find themselves in I believe. The spectrum of talent varies, but the fact is that there are a lot of intelligent people these days focusing their talents and attention on beating poker games. In fact, they are beating poker games, and every day they are learning to do it more and more efficiently, and the more this happens, the more they are inclined to focus even more attention and more time on learning how to do it even better. Now given these two different factors at work, I want to raise a couple of questions.Firstly, what will this do to the average talent level in the poker world in the near future, say 10 years from now? Is it going to be that much more difficult to make money playing poker 10 years from now? Will we see a day when the average player in a typical online tournament actually implements mostly correct basic strategies, and knows the basic odds of hitting particular hands, pot odds, implied odds, etc.? I think you almost have to say that the talent level 10 years from now is going to be much higher than it is today, and that the only real question here is whether or not the amount of new money coming from lesser players will be sufficient to sustain a profit for the average good player. I guess essentially I am wondering, will you have to be (X) times of a better player in 2016, than you are today, if you want to make the SAME amount of money you currently do, whatever that may be(of course if you are still playing in 2016 it would only make sense that you would be better)? I really hope I am not just clogging up the forum and that my question makes sense to most of you that are interested in responding, if any.Regards,Nate

[BNH77 0]

Im almost more interested in what will the changes be to the economy and society in general. Texas Holdem is being played in highschools, more and more people are dropping out of college to take their shot, what will the implications be in the future with North Americas youth turning to poker for a living/semi-living.In regards to the poker economy, I think it will average it self out, there will always be bad/recreational players at low stakes. I believe the comptetition in the bigger stakes game has already improved from say 5 years ago. I believe you need to be a better player to make money playing poker today then you did even a year or two ago.

[BlueDev 0]

Interesting topic. My quick response is that you may be overestimating the number of people who actually apply themselves and learn how to play. Personally, I know a number of people who began playing during this poker boom, and continue to play, but do nothing to actually improve the level of their game. If my guess is right, the number of people entering the game with no knowledge will, for a while at least, continue to increase faster than the number of people getting better at the game. Also, take into account that it takes no time to begin playing (poorly), but a long time to play well. This increases the spread even further. I would imagine it will be this way for a long time to come.Eventually, though, the boom will taper off. The people who have a genuine interest in the game (and, one would expect, are improving) will continue to play, while the ones who've lost all of their money will go away. Then, the average talent in the game will be marginally better. But, those marginal talents that had been making money from the truly horrible players will begin to lose, so they, too, will begin to fall away. Eventually, my guess is that it will end up being about the same as it was a few years ago.

[MisterFancypants 0]

Thanks to the information explosion of the Internet (and forums like this, 2+2, programs like PokerStove, etc), yes, I absolutely think that the current generation of up-and-coming poker players will understand the mathematical/theoretical side of the game better than any previous generation, by far. I'm not sure this is good thing... not only because it makes the competition more difficult, but because in some ways it may make the game more boring to spectate... but we'll see.

[Ramocita 0]

I agree with the poster that right now more young adults are experiencing the poker boom thinking that they can become the next Daniel Negreanu without first pursuing an education. Poker is not the easy way out and I believe that the cream of the crop of poker players are a select few. The poker boom has also created a new generation for Gamblers Anonymous.I believe that it will level itself out and is like any other fad. The bad thing is is that there will be repercussions to this fad.Don't get me wrong, I love poker, and some of the popularity of poker has been good for the game. If we were honest, we know that most poker "players" have lost more than they have won.. and will admit that they have a dream and most likely that dream will not be achieved.

[BNH77 0]

Interesting topic. My quick response is that you may be overestimating the number of people who actually apply themselves and learn how to play. Personally, I know a number of people who began playing during this poker boom, and continue to play, but do nothing to actually improve the level of their game. I agree with this statement 100%, I have so many friends/acquaintances that are always asking me about poker. Once we've had a lengthy discussion, Il bring up the topic of books and see if they would like to borrow any of mine to get started, and you would not believe how many say something to the effect "nah, I wouldnt read it any how".I believe today's average player gets caught up in watching the WPT, WSOP ect and hearing about others making $ online and want to start playing to get rich quick. As most of us know, its a grind to make $ consistently playing poker online or live and most of these players will not stick it out to become better.

[Demonikal 0]

bah the glass is half empty!...online poker will succomb to hackers eventually, dont get me wrong, these places make so much cheese that they will pull out every stop to counter the hacks, but in time, no matter how much control they have over the problem people will no longer feel safe...at least not in ring gamesjust recently rumors(only called rumors because they arent %100 confirmed) of just one or 2 people hacking others have spread about on many poker forums...where there is one, there are bound to be many more...having said that i do have faith that the online poker rooms will do everything in their power to keep it a hack-free game, but the publicity of it alone will hurt the bottom line for them..live poker from now until the end of time will only continue to grow (especially if online craps out)

[ricker 0]

I get the idea behind what you're saying and appreciate the thought. However with that being said....Without fundementally changing the aspects of the game, tomorrow's players won't necessarily be better. The idea of pot odds and implied odds, or percentages won't change without fundemental changes to the game itself.(The following analogy can either be really great or really bad...I'm not entirely sure which yet...but I like it)It's like baseball. Sure, in the last 30-40 years there have been leaps and bounds in the advancement of physical training. But, do I think in a home run derby Barry Bonds is going to smoke Babe Ruth in his prime? I don't think so. Talent is talent. With poker you either have it...or you don't and you learn it. Ten years ago without the poker boom, there were still thousands of players flocking to Vegas who knew nothing about the fundementals of the game, and their pockets were emptied by the likes of the Doyles, Phils, Chans, whoever and the hundreds of other great players who have made this great game their living. Ten years from now when this has passed onto being just a fad of the early 2000's (whatever it's called I don't even know) there still will be that balance of people who don't have the first clue of what they're doing vs the guys/gals who regularly clean up any game they sit down in.There's always a balance to life and I don't think tomorrow's player will be any better/different than today's players.

[ilovejulie 0]

Great topic. I'd like to think about this in golf terms, if I might. 50 years ago, there were only 10% of the number of golfers in this country then there are today. And I would argue, that like poker of perhaps 10 years ago, there were a relatively small number of world-class players (true scratch players). In golf, the few best won most of the major events, the depth of talent was not that deep, and more importantly the separation of the best from the worst was not as far as it is today. Golf 50 years ago was played largely by enthusiasts. They probably, on average, had more experience than the average golfer today. Today, with junior golf programs, collegiate competition, and the more global nature of golf, the gap between the very best and the average golfer is much, much larger-- and also I mean the gap between the average "good" player, and the average "bad" player. I believe that the growth of poker will certainly widen the gap between the great and the average. I think the average quality of play will actually go down, and while we average (hell, I'm not even that good) poker players will stand less and less a chance against the very best, we will in fact widen our margin over the real novices, the occasional, recreational player. The strong will always eat the weak, it's just that the food chain will grow longer.

[MisterFancypants 0]

But, do I think in a home run derby Barry Bonds is going to smoke Babe Ruth in his prime? I don't think so.

I don't think so either, but only because you picked a huge exception to the rule. Babe Ruth's long-hit power was ridiculous to the point of standing up to and exceeding modern baseball players. In the vast majority of sports and in the vast majority of individual player cases, that isn't the case. Running, tennis, football, basketball, hell even figure skating.. if you put a modern champ next to a champ of days gone by in some mystical field of dreams, the old timers will get smoked, even in their primes in the majority of cases.

[chrozzo 19]

But, do I think in a home run derby Barry Bonds is going to smoke Babe Ruth in his prime? I don't think so.

I don't think so either, but only because you picked a huge exception to the rule. Babe Ruth's long-hit power was ridiculous to the point of standing up to and exceeding modern baseball players. In the vast majority of sports and in the vast majority of individual player cases, that isn't the case. Running, tennis, football, basketball, hell even figure skating.. if you put a modern champ next to a champ of days gone by in some mystical field of dreams, the old timers will get smoked, even in their primes in the majority of cases.

[koolromeo 0]

i agree that the young players of today are much better than young players from a decade ago. how could they not be? they can play more hands in a day than DN could in a a week when he was 19. they can also learn the game at the microlimits, which allows them to try numerous styles without risking much money.i think the young players' biggest enemy is himself. people under 25 arent really known for their great decsion making. that's why their auto insurance is so much. will they play outside of their bankroll or blow their money on those infasmous hookers and blow? i personally know a 17 year old that started with $150 in july and has run it up to 200K!! no joke. he's now crushing $10-$25 nl everyday. if he's smart, he'll be a millionare by the time he's 20. if he's not smart, he'll be playing $50-$100 against mahatma. i know he'll try that game sooner or later. hopefully he doesn't blow it.

[Wandigo 1]

In the year 2016, online survey's will be different...

[Nate The Great 0]

Wow I am glad I posted on this because obviously there are so many different viewpoints and it really is just speculation at the moment but it's easy to see it going in any number of different directions. I wonder if the younger folks that try to turn pro give any thought to this type of thing.

[JimD82 0]

there are more good players now because there are more people playing poker. there are more bad players now because there are more people playing poker.it is probably harder to win at the highest levels now because there's more talent. i'm talking about the levels where even rich recreational players generally don't play at.i think the more interesting question is what will happen if poker's popularity declines. i think in that case it will be a lot harder to make money because poker will lose a lot recreational player. however, the whole thing will eventually correct itself because when only competent players are left, only a small percentage will have ability and the will to bring their game to a level that can still be profitable. i mean, i have a full time job and i just play poker because i like it and i can earn spending money off of incompetents in my free time. i would never want to play for a living because it is too much of a grind. if all the bad players dried up, i wouldn't have the time or desire to get good enough to continue to earn money at poker.

[JimD82 0]

there are more good players now because there are more people playing poker. there are more bad players now because there are more people playing poker.it is probably harder to win at the highest levels now because there's more talent. i'm talking about the levels where even rich recreational players generally don't play at.i think the more interesting question is what will happen if poker's popularity declines. i think in that case it will be a lot harder to make money because poker will lose a lot recreational player. however, the whole thing will eventually correct itself because when only competent players are left, only a small percentage will have ability and the will to bring their game to a level that can still be profitable. i mean, i have a full time job and i just play poker because i like it and i can earn spending money off of incompetents in my free time. i would never want to play for a living because it is too much of a grind. if all the bad players dried up, i wouldn't have the time or desire to get good enough to continue to earn money at poker.

[JimD82 0]

there are more good players now because there are more people playing poker. there are more bad players now because there are more people playing poker.it is probably harder to win at the highest levels now because there's more talent. i'm talking about the levels where even rich recreational players generally don't play at.i think the more interesting question is what will happen if poker's popularity declines. i think in that case it will be a lot harder to make money because poker will lose a lot recreational player. however, the whole thing will eventually correct itself because when only competent players are left, only a small percentage will have ability and the will to bring their game to a level that can still be profitable. i mean, i have a full time job and i just play poker because i like it and i can earn spending money off of incompetents in my free time. i would never want to play for a living because it is too much of a grind. if all the bad players dried up, i wouldn't have the time or desire to get good enough to continue to earn money at poker.

[chrozzo 19]

I can definiteyl see this poker boom keep booming. That sounded stupid but whatever. Whenever I walk into a poker room I see so many young players. A few times in some NY casinos I have witnessed players being thrown out because they are 18 or something and had a fake ID. I myself am 23 and have been playing for about 10 months. At my school, there are about a dozen games going on every night of the week. But the key ingredient to the "juicy" games continuing is the lack of discipline on the part of these young players. Not many are srious students of the game. I see what I call the "Ivey effect" happen all the time here. A couple guys will clean up the games here, not because they played their cards right, but because about 95% of thier hands were won at showdown and they had the nuts or near nuts almost every time! This plants a seed in their minds that they can make some extra cash in this game and rush to the nearest casino. Only when they play there, they realize the deper aspects of the game in the worst ways possible. Ive had friends that, after not listening to me, lost their entire credit line trying to make back what they lost in the 1/2 games. Some even play 4/8 limit thikning that wll be a little softer and the aswings not as big. But when they buy into that game for 150, they soon realize they cannot play as loose as they like. This will only continue as the new breed of highschoolers become of age and join the ranks of the recreational player, never truly realizing that the game should be played with a greater understanding than simply hand rankings and that winning is most often accomplished on a smale scale, and over time..heance, the "grind."

[SilentSnow 1]

i think that its going to decline, and sooner than most people suspect. already it seems that many of the truly horrible online players are gone.once people begin to realize the obvious truth that only a tiny minority can make a decent living at it, its popularity is going to decline.also, this decline will be the worst sort, because it is the losing players that will leave.also, it is getting easier and easier to find the information to make yourselfa competent player, also reducing profitablility.another reason is that for most people, grinding it out in ring games is just not that fun, and once they realize they are a long term loser, they are likely to quit.i think the future of poker will be more tournaments and less ring games, played at a higher competency level, and less profitable on just about every level above the microlimits. the only positive development i see is that people might start demanding lower rakes and entry fees.ill admit that the amount of gamblers in this country is somewhat mystifying, but many of these are not young people.young people have much less diposable income, and tend to follow fads more- 2 things that work against the poker boom.

[BoBetter 0]

I don't think it matters how many people play the game. It will always be a cross section of society for the most part. This is why I love it. I'm continually reminded how dumb the average person is, and continually annoyed by them in many situations of life. Driving, drinking, the supermarket, you name it. I often come across one dimensional people. They may be great at math, but are retarded when it comes to more humanistic, social skills. I rarely meet people who have a good read on all aspects of brain power and or humanity in general.I also think that 90 percent of the world is un observant, and lack the ability or desire to see themselves realistically, in terms of how they fit into their respective environments. That sort of, me first, live in a bubble way of living, where people don't seem too interested in observing their environments very closely. They lack the ability to judge character and emotional, psychological things because they're too into their own selves.This is why I love poker, because I can take money from the very stupid, ego first people, that annoy the shit out of me on a daily basis.It's like George Carlin said, "children are just like any other group of people, a lot of bad ones, and a few good ones"This is never going to change. The more people that play the better.I don't think we'll ever see a time when only the people with the natural ability to be good poker players play. There will always be players that good players can take advantage of. As long as you keep your eyes open for those players, you'll be a good poker player and you'll make money.Most people use the english language, and drive cars. Yet, most people I know don't speak very well or have large vocabularies, and most people suck at driving.....The business world is a lot like poker. It involves a lot of risk taking, and speculation based on variable information, etc. Business has been here since the dawn of time. Yet, there are still people who are great at it, and a ton of people who are horrible at it.

[TheMathProf 0]

As long as there are people out there who are willing to play poker as entertainment, because it's less expensive than a movie or whatever else is out there that thrills, and that also provides the occasional prospects of a win, poker will always have the have's and the have-not's, and the have-not's will continue to supply those more willing to learn.QED

[ilovejulie 0]

i think that its going to decline, and sooner than most people suspect. already it seems that many of the truly horrible online players are gone.once people begin to realize the obvious truth that only a tiny minority can make a decent living at it, its popularity is going to decline.also, this decline will be the worst sort, because it is the losing players that will leave.also, it is getting easier and easier to find the information to make yourselfa competent player, also reducing profitablility.... the only positive development i see is that people might start demanding lower rakes and entry fees.

Good instincts on this I think. My comment about a bigger food chain only applies if this pool of players keeps growing. It is a whole different analysis and outcome if the poker economy shrinks...

[blueodum 0]

once people begin to realize the obvious truth that only a tiny minority can make a decent living at it, its popularity is going to decline.I think you underestimate the gullibility of the general populace. How else to explain the increasing popularity of lotteries even though any thinking person knows it's -EV everytime you buy a ticket....Live poker is going to grow for decades to come. Think about all the people in North America who don't have easy access to a cardroom. In 20 years, there will almost certainly be more cardrooms and that will mean better access. As well, there is a constant supply of people who have played online that want to play the "real" thing. Online poker is going to grow for decades to come. Currently, online poker is only popular in the US, Canada, the UK and Scandinavia. The rest of the world is still pretty much virgin territory in terms of online poker. Imagine what will happen if/when people from China and India catch the poker bug and have easy access to high speed internet.No matter how many active players there are in the poker economy, most will be recreational players. That means that the serious student of the game should always have the edge, provided they practice good game selection.

[slappywhite 0]

The poker player of 2006 is the daytrader of 1996..everyone with a brain was making big money them because the market was so good but eventually it dried up and became limited in the amount of money that could be made...only the smartest investors and traders with large capital reserves have made significant money in the last 5 years...poker is heading this direction....those who have made large amounts of money will continue to be able to survive playing 500-1000 for small edges but if i was 17 or 18 i would be looking for the next big thing to focus my energies on .....there will not be an adequate number of donks to build that initial bankroll easily...those that are smart enough to grind up to a 7 figure bankroll probably would do even better in the business world......i love poker and wish it could go on forever...but my brain is recalling things i saw in the 90s with the market...little signs like a few hundred less players in the most recent tourneys signal a coming change i'm afraid

[SuitedHooks 0]

the low limit stakes up to 2/4 nl will always be profitable.....just with lower rakes when online sites start competing more and more....