folding aces preflop

[Egarim 0]

I don't know why or who locked my previous post on folding aces preflop... but grrr I'd appreciate a PM from whoever did it explaining why.http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...pic.php?t=49208Anyways, here's an analysis of what I found to be the correct play.Situation:10person single table tournament. Buyin- $1200.1st gets buyin into another STT for $5500. 2nd-5th gets buyin back into this STT. 6th gets $700.6 players left. Blinds: 50-100. Total of 8k in chips on table.2 on my right has $25. I have $95.Button: me dealt [AA]Everyone folds to me. AnalysisI'm going to be generous and average out my chance of winning to be an 80% chance to win $300 (Note: this is definitely above what I would normally win on average since the sb will fold sometimes and when he does call my % of winning will usually be less than 80%). 20% of the time I'm out. Meanwhile, if I win, I have about 300/8000 value = 3.75% which I'll call my chance of winning 1st (difference between 2nd and 5th is nothing) out of the 80% which means I move onto the next STT ($5500 buyin) 3% of the time.So, (3%X$4800)+(77%X$500) = $529 (I am assuming if I win this pot I will always finish 5th or higher which will be true a large % of the time making this negligible). 20%X$500=$100. $529-100 = $429..Now, if I fold and I assume I finish 5th or higher everytime then I gain $500 (We can assume this because I made the same assumption earlier, and if I triple up, I will have the about the same likelyhood of finishing 5th or higher since I'll still fold virtually every hand until the guy on my right goes out. Also, don't forget that I was VERY generous on my win% and win amount of 300 which means its really less and so the total should actually be lower than $429). So, by calling with aces the play was negative EV.Edit: changed $5500 to the correct value of $4800. Also, jdr999 pointed out that I didn't include my value of 95/8000 chance of winning the tournament still which I will still choose to neglect. The fact is, the % chance of winning will actually be less than 95/8000 for many reasons. That's why the 300/8000 chance of winning is being generous. Everything seems to point even stronger to folding aces preflop.

[Longshanks 0]

[krup24 0]

nh

[Longshanks 0]

nh

i stole from someone on NWP

[Egarim 0]

nh

i stole from someone on NWP

Do they post that in every thread at NWP?

[nell789 0]

nh

i stole from someone on NWP

Do they post that in every thread at NWP?

They should

[krup24 0]

nh

i stole from someone on NWP

Do they post that in every thread at NWP?

You should post this there they could help u

[Egarim 0]

Why would I need help?

[Jdr999 0]

AnalysisI'm going to be generous and average out my chance of winning to be an 80% chance to win $300 (Note: this is definitely above what I would normally win on average since the sb will fold sometimes and when he does call my % of winning will usually be less than 80%). 20% of the time I'm out. Meanwhile, if I win, I have about 300/8000 value = 3.75% which I'll call my chance of winning 1st (difference between 2nd and 5th is nothing) out of the 80% which means I move onto the next STT ($5500 buyin) 3% of the time.So, (3%X$5500)+(77%X$500) = $550 (I am assuming if I win this pot I will always finish 5th or higher which will be true a large % of the time making this negligible). 20%X$500=$100. $550-100 = $450.Now, if I fold and I assume I finish 5th or higher everytime then I gain $500 (We can assume this because I made the same assumption earlier, and if I triple up, I will have the about the same likelyhood of finishing 5th or higher since I'll still fold virtually every hand until the guy on my right goes out. Also, don't forget that I was VERY generous on my win% and win amount of 300 which means its really less and so the total should actually be lower than $450). So, by calling with aces the play was negative EV.

1. If you fold, you have a 95/8000 value (1.18% of winning)2. If you call and win, you have a 300/800 value of (3.75%).A 1.18% value of winning = $64.9 (5500 X .0118).B. A 3.75 vaule of winning= $206.25 (5500 X .0375).$206.25- 64.9= $141.35. 550-450=100.

[MisterFancypants 0]

I would NEVER fold a pair of aces preflop in any situation. Even if it was right on the bubble and one guy pushed and another guy called and their stacks were close enough that at least one of them is going out or is going to be so crippled he'll be out in the next hand, I still don't fold AA pre-flop.Even if 9 people push allin ahead of me, I still don't fold AA pre-flop.Never, ever.

[Hobbes 1]

1. If you fold, you have a 95/8000 value (1.18% of winning)2. If you call and win, you have a 300/800 value of (3.75%).A 1.18% value of winning = $64.9 (5500 X .0118).B. A 3.75 vaule of winning= $206.25 (5500 X .0375).$206.25- 64.9= $141.35. 550-450=100.

This is how I saw the math:1st place pays $5,5002nd - 5th pays $1,2006th pays $700OP says calling will win him the hand 80% of the time and out of that 80% he will go on to win the whole thing 3.75% and finish 2nd to 5th the remaining 96.25% (of the 80%). Obviously everytime he loses the hand he finishes 6th.So, 80% x 3.75% x 5,500 = $16580% x 96.25% x 1,200 = $92420% x 100% x $700 = $140The sum of all the possibilities after calling is $1,229.He also says folding will win him 2nd to 5th 100% of the time.So, 100% x 1,200 = $1,200Calling > Folding.

[Actuary 3]

shut up Egarim.

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

No, never fold aces preflop, there is no reason to ever fold aces preflop, if you do, then you are scared money and you are eventually going to lose it all!There is no hand, bar pocket aces that is even equally likely to win preflop as your aces, therefore, if you are playing poker and are a gambler, you should never fold when u KNOW u have the best of it! The end, finito, be quiet and don't open new unimportant posts.

[jayistheman 0]

No, never fold aces preflop, there is no reason to ever fold aces preflop, if you do, then you are scared money and you are eventually going to lose it all!There is no hand, bar pocket aces that is even equally likely to win preflop as your aces, therefore, if you are playing poker and are a gambler, you should never fold when u KNOW u have the best of it! The end, finito, be quiet and don't open new unimportant posts.

No. The only absolute in poker is that there are no absolutes.There is a painfully obvious super satellite scenario where folding AA is widely accepted to be correct.provided you are interested in maximizing EV, there are a few final table scenarios as well, but check out TPFAP for that.this thread no longer has value

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

this thread no longer has value

and neither does poker if you are suggesting that folding the best hand is a good move

[jayistheman 0]

this thread no longer has value

and neither does poker if you are suggesting that folding the best hand is a good move

do you understand any of the following:super satellitesevtournament equity (icm)?

[jayistheman 0]

this thread no longer has value

and neither does poker if you are suggesting that folding the best hand is a good move

i'll give you a hint...various forms of hold'em poker, while looking very similar, using the same basic setup, the same flop, turn, river--blinds and all...They each have different objectives, goals, and methods which the player should know and understand. If I have a large stack in a super satellite where 8 seats are awarded..... oh never mind.use the search function on this, or any other poker site.even google should be able to explain it.btw: has NoFX released anything decent since pump up the valuum? I kinda grew out of it, but you have raised some interest.

[Hobbes 1]

this thread no longer has value

and neither does poker if you are suggesting that folding the best hand is a good move

There are scenarios where folding Aces is the correct play. For example,You are in a satellite where the top 15 spots win you a seat into a tournament while anything less wins nothing. 16 players left and you have a healthy chip stack, say 3rd place. There are a few short stacks battling it out trying to survive to the money. Don't even look at your cards, just fold.

[NOFX_PUNK 0]

Yes I understand all of the above, however, that doesn't mean you are right.If you have a tiny stack in a tournament and are on the bubble, do you not want to double up? What is you best shot at that?If you have a giant stack in a tournament, if someone is willing to call your all in, they clearly have a good hand but can never have a better one and you should not be afriad to push any edge.In cash games both of the above are true, I can, however, see why somebody MIGHT fold aces, if you have a couple of BB left and need one more place to make X then there's value in hoping someone else will call, expecially is someone else is all in as well.All this said, I have no regrets if I push with the best hand...

[Egarim 0]

1. If you fold, you have a 95/8000 value (1.18% of winning)2. If you call and win, you have a 300/800 value of (3.75%).A 1.18% value of winning = $64.9 (5500 X .0118).B. A 3.75 vaule of winning= $206.25 (5500 X .0375).$206.25- 64.9= $141.35. 550-450=100.

Nice. I just considered the 95/8000 as negligible. Good work. This only further supports the decision to fold aces here.I guess I should have taken the 1% into account since I took the 300/8000 into account which is also a small %.

[davezz5 0]

Yes i can see your point.Logically then, the only way of booking a win in this situation ,because if calling with aces has neg ev,is fold all other hands pre-flop with less chance of winning.I thank-you for this gem of information and shall incorporate it into my play at the 1st opportunity.

[Egarim 0]

This is how I saw the math:1st place pays $5,5002nd - 5th pays $1,2006th pays $700OP says calling will win him the hand 80% of the time and out of that 80% he will go on to win the whole thing 3.75% and finish 2nd to 5th the remaining 96.25% (of the 80%). Obviously everytime he loses the hand he finishes 6th.So, 80% x 3.75% x 5,500 = $16580% x 96.25% x 1,200 = $92420% x 100% x $700 = $140The sum of all the possibilities after calling is $1,229.He also says folding will win him 2nd to 5th 100% of the time.So, 100% x 1,200 = $1,200Calling > Folding.

Very bad math. 2+2 does not equal 3. That is what I always say when I hear George Bush talking about reducing the budget deficit while making tax cuts permanent and increasing government expenditure.However, you did point out a nice flaw in my math. Instead of 3%X5500 it should be 3%X4800 making it even more profitable to fold preflop. Thank you for pointing that out. I'll edit the original post. Ha, I pulled a George W. Bush.Anyways, what you did wrong was include the $700. This $700 is guranteed no matter what decision you make. Therefore, it should not be included. Only what you stand to gain or lose should be considered in the calculations.

[Hobbes 1]

This is how I saw the math:1st place pays $5,5002nd - 5th pays $1,2006th pays $700OP says calling will win him the hand 80% of the time and out of that 80% he will go on to win the whole thing 3.75% and finish 2nd to 5th the remaining 96.25% (of the 80%). Obviously everytime he loses the hand he finishes 6th.So, 80% x 3.75% x 5,500 = $16580% x 96.25% x 1,200 = $92420% x 100% x $700 = $140The sum of all the possibilities after calling is $1,229.He also says folding will win him 2nd to 5th 100% of the time.So, 100% x 1,200 = $1,200Calling > Folding.

Very bad math. 2+2 does not equal 3. That is what I always say when I hear George Bush talking about reducing the budget deficit while making tax cuts permanent and increasing government expenditure.However, you did point out a nice flaw in my math. Instead of 3%X5500 it should be 3%X4800 making it even more profitable to fold preflop. Thank you for pointing that out. I'll edit the original post. Ha, I pulled a George W. Bush.Anyways, what you did wrong was include the $700. This $700 is guranteed no matter what decision you make. Therefore, it should not be included. Only what you stand to gain or lose should be considered in the calculations.

Maybe I didn't understand your assumptions then. Did you assume the following?If you call, you will win the hand 80% of the time.If you call and win, you will finish 1st 3.75% of the time.If you call and win, you will finish 2nd to 5th 96.25% of the time.If you fold, you will finish 2nd to 5th 100% of the time.If you take out $700 from every scenario it doesn't change the net result.

[jayistheman 0]

Yes I understand all of the above, however, that doesn't mean you are right.no, you don'tyou don't understand what a super satellite is. in a super satellite that pays 8 places, 1st and 8th get the same prize. There is no incentive to gather chips to take a shot at first when you are guaranteed to get at least 8th.If you have a tiny stack in a tournament and are on the bubble, do you not want to double up? What is you best shot at that?of course. nobody said that this was a case in which folding AA is correct. EV and ICM calculations consider all of this, of course, so your crazy logic skillz still fall at the hands of sound mathematicsIf you have a giant stack in a tournament, if someone is willing to call your all in, they clearly have a good hand but can never have a better one and you should not be afriad to push any edge.of course. an edge is defined as a +ev situation, imo. there is no edge to risking your tournament life in the afore-mentioned super sat. situation.In cash games both of the above are true, I can, however, see why somebody MIGHT fold aces, if you have a couple of BB left and need one more place to make X then there's value in hoping someone else will call, expecially is someone else is all in as well.no. you are wrong. a ring game is the only time in which it is NEVER +ev to fold AA pre flop. But your comment still doesn't make any sense... but in the last statement, you are starting to refute your claim.All this said, I have no regrets if I push with the best hand...that's fine. the best hand isn't always +ev is the only point i'm making.This has been discussed ad infinitum, so take a look around.

[TheMathProf 0]

This is how I saw the math:1st place pays $5,5002nd - 5th pays $1,2006th pays $700OP says calling will win him the hand 80% of the time and out of that 80% he will go on to win the whole thing 3.75% and finish 2nd to 5th the remaining 96.25% (of the 80%). Obviously everytime he loses the hand he finishes 6th.So, 80% x 3.75% x 5,500 = $16580% x 96.25% x 1,200 = $92420% x 100% x $700 = $140The sum of all the possibilities after calling is $1,229.He also says folding will win him 2nd to 5th 100% of the time.So, 100% x 1200 = $1,200Calling > Folding.

Very bad math. 2+2 does not equal 3. That is what I always say when I hear George Bush talking about reducing the budget deficit while making tax cuts permanent and increasing government expenditure.However, you did point out a nice flaw in my math. Instead of 3%X5500 it should be 3%X4800 making it even more profitable to fold preflop. Thank you for pointing that out. I'll edit the original post. Ha, I pulled a George W. Bush.Anyways, what you did wrong was include the $700. This $700 is guranteed no matter what decision you make. Therefore, it should not be included. Only what you stand to gain or lose should be considered in the calculations.

The interesting point is that the 700 is included in all the calculations. So let's "fix" the calculations:80% x 3.75% x $4800 (the price of the best satellite minus the 700, after all you've already included that) = $14480% x 96.25% x $500 (the price of moving up in the money minus the 700) = $38520% x 100% x 0 = $0Sum $52999.05% x $500 = $495.250.95% x $4800 = $45.60Sum $540.85It's actually only slightly in favor of folding the aces, with these calculations, but here are some other factors to consider:(1) What about the situation (rare as it may be) that the $25 guy actually manages to survive, and you get blinded out? Admittedly, a rare possibility.(2) Ultimately, the value of this particular satellite turns out to be one of three choices: $5500 (if you win), $700 (if you place 6th), or $0 (if you place 7th-10th). The other four places are EV neutral as compared to your original buy-in. Assuming you can't cash out the value of the satellite ticket (and if you could, would you even do so?), and assuming the probability of finishing in any of the other places is random (is this fair, you have $95 somehow to be in this position), then the probability of placing 1st is 1/6, the probability of placing 6th is 1/6, and the probability of placing 7th - 10th is 2/3. So the EV of this tournament ticket is $5500 x 1/6 + $700 x 1/6 + $0 x 2/3 = $1033.33, not the $1200 that we've presumed...Just a couple of thoughts...