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Playing 1/2 NL tonight.  I have about $950 in front.  We are playing 9 handed when I raise from $10 total UTG with A :) A :D .  One caller from the small blind.  He has about $500. I sat down about 10 minutes earlier, so no read.  Flop comes Q :D 5 :) 8 :) .  He bets $15 into the pot.  I raise to $40 total.  He calls and we see a turn of 2 :club: .  He checks and I bet $100.  He makes the call and the river comes with the J :D . He checks and I check.  He flipped over J :) 6 :) .Was it a bad check on the end?  I did not put him on a flush draw because I was holding the A :) .  Any advice would help out.
I think you have to ask yourself, would he check a hand that has two aces beat on the river? One of the only hands he might play that way would be QJ. But there are many other holdings he might call a bet with. (AQ, KQ, Q10, Qx, ,flush draws containing a jack, 1010,99, A8, K8s, J8s, 89, 78,68s.) The latter of these are unlikely but they're meant to serve a mathematical point.I would advocate betting somewhere in the neigborhood of 75-125 or about one quarter to one third the size of the pot.The reason I like betting out here is two fold. If he's on a draw, then he's completely missed and he'll fold but doesn't get to see your hand. No free information, unless you're advertising. And secondly, it gives all the top pair, flush draw containing a jack, middle pair or worse hands good value on a bad call. Hypothetically, if you were getting five to one odds with the KQ considering the board, would you be able to lay it down? ... Would laying it down even be a good play? Considering the board as well as the action, a missed flush draw would have to rank amongst the top few hands you could make an opponent for. Getting that price you might be induced to pay off, so your opponent might also be so inclined.I think betting the river in this model isn't completely safe, but you're chances of getting raised are meager. Unless he made top two pair on the end, what hands would he lead-call, check-call, check-raise with? If he has a set, not check raising the turn would be an odd play, especially considering the flush draw out there. Plus, on the river, would he really risk the fact that you might check behind if he were holding a set?The second factor I hoped you picked up on, after this hand concluded, was that your opponent with the J 6 was probably playing badly. He spends ten minutes watching you at the table, and he's already got such a good read that he calls 5x the big blind, out of position, when he's drawing against aces? That's not very strong at all. Unless it was Sammy Farha's long lost brethren or something like that, then you should have licked your chops and set your sites on Mr. J 6's remaing chip stack.
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We are the villain and we have let's say a set of 8s. Would we rather check/raise the turn, or lead off on the river? If I am trapping here, I am always check/raising the turn. This way if I flop a draw and turn a double draw, I can check/raise in hopes of picking up the pot right there. It only works because I have shown I will do the same with a strong made hand. Obviously I am not doing this everytime, but it is my preferred method of trap. Thoughts? (I hate attempting to check/raise the river on a trap)I can't see checking the river with a set of 8's here unless you have a stone cold read on your opponent which obviously isn't the case here.

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There is $300 in the pot going into the river.I'd probably bet an additional $100.  If he pushed all in, you'd be getting roughly 3:1 on your money.  Do you think that he's bluffing 25% of the time or more?  If so, call.  If not, fold.
I read your post after I wrote mine, but I thought the same thing. In the long run we're right here. Checking is ultra conservative.Secondly did anybody read that the guy with J 6 moved in on the river? Sounds like me with a serious hangover and maybe a touch of the flu during a cold winter night after I've just shot ketchup from a hot dog all over a brand new shirt.
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Thanks for all the advice. 1 more question....if you put $75-$100 in on the river and he comes over the top b/c he is reading my bet as weak, what do u do? Are you laying it down or making the call? Is there any chance he read me as being very aggressive and really thought I would bet ther river, then knew he would be able to get all the money in the pot by going over the top? Just a thought.....

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Thanks for all the advice. 1 more question....if you put $75-$100 in on the river and he comes over the top b/c he is reading my bet as weak, what do u do? Are you laying it down or making the call? Is there any chance he read me as being very aggressive and really thought I would bet ther river, then knew he would be able to get all the money in the pot by going over the top? Just a thought.....
If he comes over the top then you have a crying call I think. It's like OJ Simpson's lawyer, Johnny Cochran, said during the the big murder trial. "If the glove don't fit you must aquit." To me, the way this guy played his hand adds up to losing his mind, not holding the nuts. (Although OJ was probably guilty, which means that everyone once in a while some one will show you QJ or JJ and you'll have to rap the table and say nice catch)
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Playing 1/2 NL tonight. I have about $950 in front. We are playing 9 handed when I raise from $10 total UTG with A :) A :D . One caller from the small blind. He has about $500. I sat down about 10 minutes earlier, so no read. Flop comes Q :D 5 :) 8 :) . He bets $15 into the pot. I raise to $40 total. He calls and we see a turn of 2 :club: . He checks and I bet $100. He makes the call and the river comes with the J :D . He checks and I check. He flipped over J :) 6 :) .Was it a bad check on the end? I did not put him on a flush draw because I was holding the A :) . Any advice would help out.
Right or wrong, I hope you took all his money anyway later on cause what you did find out was that he's a donk =)
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