Mattnxtc 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 I watched the show once. I'm pretty sure they offer less than your EV at every turn. You'd maximize your EV by gambling it up all the way. But you'd have to either be rich, nuts, or a dedicated EV maximizer to do that. Well, pure EV maximizers are also nuts.they do b/c they realize that peoples actually dollar amount isnt equal to utility....meanin the EV of either 1million or nothing is 500k but that a person will actually be indifferent at a much lower level like say 400k. So they offer what they think is a good indifference level Link to post Share on other sites
revhq2646 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 The question I have is "Is the banker a machine" or does the offer actually change based on the way the contestant plays? I'm not asking based on the boxes left, but based on the perception of the "banker" that the contestant is more or less likely to play or stop. The other variable that is not made clear is what information does the banker have?Does the banker know all of the values in all of the boxes? Does the banker know that you have picked $250 and if you stick with your box all the way you will be stuck? Link to post Share on other sites
revhq2646 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 The question I have is "Is the banker a machine" or does the offer actually change based on the way the contestant plays? I'm not asking based on the boxes left, but based on the perception of the "banker" that the contestant is more or less likely to play or stop. The other variable that is not made clear is what information does the banker have?Does the banker know all of the values in all of the boxes? Does the banker know that you have picked $250 and if you stick with your box all the way you will be stuck? Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 It's a completely stupid game. Jeopardy pwns u Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 It's a completely stupid game. Jeopardy pwns u Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 It's a completely stupid game. Jeopardy pwns u Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 It's a completely stupid game. Jeopardy pwns u Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 Deal or No Deal is basically a study in risk aversion. Every time the people gamble, the "banker" gives them an offer that's a little closer to their true EV, but the only way to actually get there is to take what's in your case. They never offer the contestant a +EV "deal".I think the lesson is that people are actually a lot less risk avers then we think as a good portion of the contestants are willing to push 5 and 10% edges even when gambling with hundreds of thousands of dollars.Oh, and calculating the EV is childishly easy. Just add up the remaining prizes and divide by the number of unopened cases. Link to post Share on other sites
chrozzo 19 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 A squirrel that can play poker...deal or no deal? Link to post Share on other sites
yergan 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 It's a completely stupid game. Jeopardy pwns uBeing able to post once pwns u. Link to post Share on other sites
yergan 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 2. Think about this situation...You have a guaranteed 500,000 but u can risk that for 1 million on a 50/50 situation....but if u miss you only get 64000...Well an EV calculation says you should always go for the million. but the good majority of us would never do it. Why? b/c the value of the first 500k in our minds is much higher than the value of teh 2nd 500k. We could say that the 2nd 500k is icing on the cake if you will. My point exactly. The EV in terms of $ is positive, but in terms of value, would be negative for most of us. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 hi,posting for 2 reasons:1. I've only seen this show once, and I really thought they offered a +EV deal.To an middle-aged-old white guy, Mayor of town, I thinkCan't confirm; but there were only 4 (maybe 5) cases left, so the calculation was pretty easy.I couldn't believe he didn't take it.2. where's Spademan? Link to post Share on other sites
nell789 0 Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 hi,posting for 2 reasons:1. I've only seen this show once, and I really thought they offered a +EV deal.To an middle-aged-old white guy, Mayor of town, I thinkCan't confirm; but there were only 4 (maybe 5) cases left, so the calculation was pretty easy.I couldn't believe he didn't take it.2. where's Spademan?1. Yes, I saw that too, and they did offer him a +EV deal. I believe there were 3 cases left: a $500,000, and two below 10,000. They offered him something close to $205,000 which is very +EV. I didn't see if he had picked the $500,000 case or not, but my guess is that the "bank" knew he had, so they offered him a great deal to stop him form getting the 500,000.2. He left without warning, claiming he thought it would be "insta-classic" or something.EDITAfter re-reading your post, I think you might have been talking about the deal when 1 million was still on the board, so my post may not relate, because I think he took the deal that I was talking about. not sure though, I was flipping between channels. Link to post Share on other sites
Mercury69 3 Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 Being able to post once pwns u.Well, sorry about the quad post, but the server was lagging and I kept hitting the post button.IT'S STILL S STUPIDER THAN AVERAGE SHOW...and that's saying something for North American TV. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 1. Yes, I saw that too, and they did offer him a +EV deal. I believe there were 3 cases left: a $500,000, and two below 10,000. They offered him something close to $205,000 which is very +EV. I didn't see if he had picked the $500,000 case or not, but my guess is that the "bank" knew he had, so they offered him a great deal to stop him form getting the 500,000.2. He left without warning, claiming he thought it would be "insta-classic" or something.EDITAfter re-reading your post, I think you might have been talking about the deal when 1 million was still on the board, so my post may not relate, because I think he took the deal that I was talking about. not sure though, I was flipping between channels.you got the right epsode. The 1MM was gone, and the 500k still up there. He took the Deal and would have made 300k had he picked one more case; however, the 500k WAS NOT with him. Glad someone else saw that too.Do you have link to his leaving announcement?Sure seems like no one cared.He was funny sometimes. Link to post Share on other sites
CodyHartman 0 Posted March 16, 2006 Share Posted March 16, 2006 verbs or adverbs...if you dont know what Im talking about, itsa video on youtube.com, a guy uses 3 lifelines on a 1000$ question. The options are verbs and adverbs.Everytime my wife and I watch the show, that is all she can say at times. Link to post Share on other sites
nell789 0 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 you got the right epsode. The 1MM was gone, and the 500k still up there. He took the Deal and would have made 300k had he picked one more case; however, the 500k WAS NOT with him. Glad someone else saw that too.Do you have link to his leaving announcement?Sure seems like no one cared.He was funny sometimes. http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...topic=49485&hl= Link to post Share on other sites
nosoul 0 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 http://www.nbc.com/Deal_or_No_Deal/game/There ya go. You can test out your theories on strategy. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now