stock market thread

[grocery_mony 9]

**** you TDWaterhouse. My account wont accpt trades and they have me on hold over an hour now.

[Yoda 1]

3 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 1 Anonymous Users)2 Members: El GuapoHey, you...the above is why I don't post here, the very few mentions of stocks in this thread are buried in this guys fascination to see his words on the screen.

We can make a new invite only forum 5betallin.com! (Okay if you don't follow General Poker that won't make any god damn sense, sorry).

[Sal Paradise 57]

I have some money I need to put somewhere, and I'm probably going the mutual fund route. where do I need to go to do research on different funds? I'll be buying through my own broker, not an online thing, if that matters.

[Yoda 1]

I have some money I need to put somewhere, and I'm probably going the mutual fund route. where do I need to go to do research on different funds? I'll be buying through my own broker, not an online thing, if that matters.

morningstar.com - funds tab. You find the fund family first, then it will list each fund in that family as a clickable link with details.

[Sal Paradise 57]

morningstar.com - funds tab. You find the fund family first, then it will list each fund in that family as a clickable link with details.

sweet, thanks

[mk 11]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d5aa24e-23a4-11...?nclick_check=1

[Yoda 1]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5d5aa24e-23a4-11...?nclick_check=1

Want to read more? Register now – for FREECan't be bothered - paste content here plz

[strategy 4]

I'm thinking about putting my brother in nvda and intel. The lawsuit business is kind of a distraction, and I don't really see it doing much damage to them long-term. They both have excellent plans (SSD for intel, CUDA and others for nvidia) to expand into new stuff and compete in different areas.Thoughts yoda, gobears, et al?

[strategy 4]

and a preemptive thank you for yoda's advice, the content of mk's article:1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence.Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.

[Yoda 1]

I'm thinking about putting my brother in nvda and intel. The lawsuit business is kind of a distraction, and I don't really see it doing much damage to them long-term. They both have excellent plans (SSD for intel, CUDA and others for nvidia) to expand into new stuff and compete in different areas.Thoughts yoda, gobears, et al?

A lot of people like Tech to lead the move up - but the real question is if you think the global market is recovering in the next 6-9 months. Although Intel and Nvidia might be good long term buys I think right now is a rough time to be buying (following a 20+% market upswing with very little pause to the downside). You might want to wait for a better price as I highly doubt you won't get a chance to buy lower in the next few months. (I have not been following any of the lawsuit stuff so I am assuming your assessment is correct that there won't be much long term damage).I was actually coming here to post that after this many consecutive weeks up up up that I simply have to take profits here on my longs and put on shorts. The easy money off the bottom has been made and I am now betting on a 5-10% overall market downswing from about these levels. I put on a bunch of short CRE and short financials just now with room to buy more if the market continues up for another week. But I don't think the S&P will see much higher than 900 in the short term. Specifically I bought SRS in low 26's and FAZ at 8.60.

[Yoda 1]

and a preemptive thank you for yoda's advice, the content of mk's article:1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning . Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence.Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.

It all seems so obvious, yet so many people ignored so much of this advice. Doh! On a related note I really am surprised more people are not in jail from all this. I thought there would be some more outrage and scapegoat arrests. Not saying that would have necessarily good, but people wanted heads to roll and I don't feel like we ever got that. Lets start with AIG execs.

[Yoda 1]

A lot of people like Tech to lead the move up - but the real question is if you think the global market is recovering in the next 6-9 months. Although Intel and Nvidia might be good long term buys I think right now is a rough time to be buying (following a 20+% market upswing with very little pause to the downside). You might want to wait for a better price as I highly doubt you won't get a chance to buy lower in the next few months. (I have not been following any of the lawsuit stuff so I am assuming your assessment is correct that there won't be much long term damage).I was actually coming here to post that after this many consecutive weeks up up up that I simply have to take profits here on my longs and put on shorts. The easy money off the bottom has been made and I am now betting on a 5-10% overall market downswing from about these levels. I put on a bunch of short CRE and short financials just now with room to buy more if the market continues up for another week. But I don't think the S&P will see much higher than 900 in the short term. Specifically I bought SRS in low 26's and FAZ at 8.60.

^^ Boomsauce!

[CaneBrain 97]

Ok i give up! Bank of America posted much better quarterly results than expected this morning......and the stock is DOWN 15%.Can someone please explain in one/two syllable words how the stock market works exactly? As far as I can tell, the market just does what it wants with no rhyme or reason to it.

[Yoda 1]

Ok i give up! Bank of America posted much better quarterly results than expected this morning......and the stock is DOWN 15%.Can someone please explain in one/two syllable words how the stock market works exactly? As far as I can tell, the market just does what it wants with no rhyme or reason to it.

BAC specifically is going down because most of their "gains" were one time events. They did not come out and say "everything is better, we are operating normally now and rolling in money". The reality is quite the opposite really. As a real world example, lets say you work in a terrible job, make minimum wage, and are in danger of losing your health benefits and maybe even your job. Then you find a bag of cash on the street with $10000 in it. If you had to report your income every week, you would be able to come out and say "I had record income this week of $10500". Sounds awesome, obviously. But when you dig a little deeper and see 95% of that was a one time thing that isn't sustainable, you realize that things still are pretty bad.That's what happened with BAC's earnings. Things are not peachy and people are still worried.--------The market overall is going down because it's done almost nothing but go up for 6 weeks (without enough reason to do so, mostly just blind optimism). We were well overdue for a downside correction unless news/earnings continued to prop the market up.It's hard to find any sense/rhyme or reason to something so large - but the best way to think of the market is with a mob mentality with the really rich/influential people leading the herd.

[strategy's_touch 0]

wish I had dumped omx, still sticking it out with BAC. glad I listened to yoda and stayed out.

[Yoda 1]

wish I had dumped omx, still sticking it out with BAC. glad I listened to yoda and stayed out.

In general you will save yourself a lot of grief not chasing gains. I learned this lesson the hard way. You watch the market or a specific stock go up up up up, and then finally you can't take it anymore and try to jump in and get a piece of the action. Then that is precisely when all the big wigs take their 20% gains and leave you holding all the losses. The tough part is deciding if you want to jump right in after a 5% dip or keep sitting on the sideline. During a strong uptrend you could have a great buying opportunity with a 5% dip, over the past 6 weeks this would have worked a ton of times. But in this case I believe it is prudent to sit out longer and buy at lower levels. There are hundreds of companies reporting earnings this week that will heavily influence the short term direction of the market...wait and see how it goes.

[strategy's_touch 0]

I'm trying to ignore the noise and focus on firm-specific stuff. if nothing else, these classes have taught me to never think I can look at trends and ascertain something everyone else doesn't already know.

[Yoda 1]

I'm trying to ignore the noise and focus on firm-specific stuff. if nothing else, these classes have taught me to never think I can look at trends and ascertain something everyone else doesn't already know.

Many would say the same about most forms of fundamental analysis as well. It's hard to have an edge in this game.

[brvheart 1,768]

sonofabitch today is brutal. I'm getting skinned on EWZ and BAC... at least my silver is up. (...and it's still my largest holding by far) And since I bought most of my BAC at 8 and then 4 and then 3.77, I'm still happy.

[Yoda 1]

sonofabitch today is brutal. I'm getting skinned on EWZ and BAC... at least my silver is up. (...and it's still my largest holding by far) And since I bought most of my BAC at 8 and then 4 and then 3.77, I'm still happy.

Go silver go! I'm doing a jig, personally.FINANCIAL BEAR 3X(NYSEArca: FAZ)Real-Time: 11.12 Up 2.22 (24.94%) 1:28pm ET

[WrongWay 0]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30329564"The subprime mortgage crisis is for the most part over. Most of the really bad subprime loans have already been lost. Now the second housing crisis is upon us. Too much debt, too little income."Too much debt and too little income? Welcome to the F'n party, azhole.Here is a hint. The subprime crisis was ALSO a problem of too much debt and too little income. People had to go with the exotic loans because they had too much debt and too little income from the start!

[WrongWay 0]

I'm doing a jig, personally.FINANCIAL BEAR 3X(NYSEArca: FAZ)

Go away Bear Fckr. We don't need your kind here. ;)No, seriously... welcome to the party. Think how much you could have made had you believed me instead of mocked me, 2 years ago.

[Yoda 1]

I am already out of it as of the open this morning, 45% gain in 24 hours. But it won't be the last time I am in the triple ETF of death.

[Dratj 0]

I am already out of it as of the open this morning, 45% gain in 24 hours. But it won't be the last time I am in the triple ETF of death.

good to c you r doing well. I haven't invested in a long time. except for the stuff in my rrsp's but the bank deals with it, i just put in money every 2 weeks.

[Yoda 1]

good to c you r doing well. I haven't invested in a long time. except for the stuff in my rrsp's but the bank deals with it, i just put in money every 2 weeks.

Markets too crazy to invest right now And I don't like the idea of buying stocks as investments following a 20% run up. Not to say I don't have long term investments, I have plenty. But I have been keeping cash handy to perform trades in both directions. Hardest part is not getting flagged a pattern day trader which is 4 round trips in 5 trading days (then i'd face all types of tax issues).I ended up going long 300 shares of FAS (3x financial bull) this morning for a quick trade, so far so good. I will almost definitely sell out of that and start buying into SRS (2x Com Real Estate Bear) with any type of significant up market movement in the next 1-2 days.