WrongWay 0 Posted March 27, 2009 Share Posted March 27, 2009 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home“The government has said it thinks the assets are worth more than the 30 cents they could get in the market now -- that it’s 80 cents or 50 cents on the dollar,” Whalen said. “But that 30 cents is going to look good in three months. Loss rates aren’t going to peak until late this year, when those assets will be going for five cents or 10 cents on the dollar. Absolutely they should move faster.” If they are going to be worth $.05-$.10 6 months from now, then why the HELL would anyone buy them for $.50-$.80? Even if the government is eating half of the first 14% of the loss, you are still fooked!Sure, the PPIP gives you almost all the upside with very cheap 1 to 12 leverage with the government taking on 11x the risk you are. However, it is near 100% chance there will be no upside and a near 100% chance that you will lose 100% of your investmnet. What good is getting all of the upside of the deal when there is not going to be any upside?Here, hold this large bomb while I detonate it. If you survive, I'll give you $1 billion.The simple truth is, if the current bid is $.30, then that is the best guess of what this stuff is worth. If that guess is close, then they'll still be going for about $.30 6 months from now. Maybe more, and maybe less, and no way this guy could know what it is.The simple truth is that if these things are really worth $.30, it isn't because of lack of liquidity. It is because that is what people think they are worth. The PPIP adds liquididty and gives you upto 7% insurance on the downside. As he points out, the disparity between bid and ask is 50%, not 7%.This large disparity between bid and ask is why the $700 billion TARP was not enough. It is why the Bad Bank idea had to be taken off the table. It is why they had to try the smoke-and-mirrors PPIP. This wide disparity is why this PPIP has 0% chace of working!This is why I have no fear still being short. Reality has repeatedly slapped rescue plans upside the head, and reality will do so again.Layoffs will continue. Incomes will continue to shrink. As soon as the tax rebates are spent, spending will resume shrinking. Corporate profits will continue to fall. Bankruptcies and defaults will accelerate. House prices will keep falling. This will not begin to bottom until we have dealt with the $15 trillion too much debt. This will not begin to bottom until manufacturing jobs begin returning to the U.S. This will not bottom until we've dealt with the massive oversupply of everything. This will not bottom until we've addressed the serious demographic issues facing this country.We'll be at fresh new lows on the S&P soon enough. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted March 29, 2009 Share Posted March 29, 2009 Last week was my best week ever in the market thanks to.CKG.V Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,768 Posted March 29, 2009 Share Posted March 29, 2009 If those posts exist (and I'm not saying they do not exist), then YOU should reference them. I would not expect you to look up posts I've made that prove I've made correct calls.I don't have an inherent need to prop myself up in front of others to make myself feel better. Thanks for the advice though. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 I don't have an inherent need to prop myself up in front of others to make myself feel better. Thanks for the advice though.Well, I do have an inherent need to deliver a beat down to those that attempt to argue with me using tools other than data and logic. So, if you don't feel the need to read my posts, then stop wasting time trying to belittle me by making a post about how it is not worth your time to even read my post. Don't want to waste time reading them... fine. But stop the passive agressive BS! Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,768 Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 Well, I do have an inherent need to deliver a beat down to those that attempt to argue with me using tools other than data and logic. So, if you don't feel the need to read my posts, then stop wasting time trying to belittle me by making a post about how it is not worth your time to even read my post. Don't want to waste time reading them... fine. But stop the passive agressive BS!Wrong. Way to be a douche.You posted your standard 20 paragraph rant about how awesome you are that started by telling everyone that you have the IQ of Albert Einstein. I didn't read the whole post, but I did read the first sentence followed by this post, letting you know that:I love you.(I didn't read the rest of your post... was anything in there important?)On an unrelated note, I made a ton of money today. I'd like to thank the following people:EWZSLVSBLKBACI didn't insult you here at all, but just informed you that I didn't read your post, other than the part about your IQ.Lack of intelligent response indicates I'm dead on accurate. If there was a counter, you'd certainly make it. $100 billion can not make trillions in losses go away. Another dead cat bounce. Reality will return soon enough.You then responded with a personal attack. Telling me that since I didn't make an 'intelligent response' that that means that you were correct about the post you had previously made. I didn't read your post, so I didn't want it to be implied that I agreed with anything you said and let you know this, in this post:no. A lack of response indicates exactly what I told you. I didn't read your post after the first sentence. I still haven't. I'm sure it was great since you're so smart.(I don't read your posts anymore if they are more than like 5 or so sentences. We already know that you think you're the greatest and that your wife is definitely contemplating suicide. I don't need more proof.)The End. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 Wrong. Way to be a douche.Making a post about not reading someone's post is being a douche.It is dismissive. It is passive agressive BS way of saying they are wrong or stupid. If they had something to say, then it WOULD be worth your time to read. Not worth your time to read.... that is an insult.You then responded with a personal attack. Telling me that since I didn't make an 'intelligent response' that that means that you were correct about the post you had previously made.What? How is that a personal attack?????Taking the time to post that you didn't bother to read someone's post is WAY more a personal attack (passive-agressive) than me saying I must be right since you didn't even try to say I was wrong. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted March 30, 2009 Share Posted March 30, 2009 Nice of AssholeWay to finally man up and post a trade. Even nicer to see it blow up in his face already. Nice timing.May all trades blow up in my face like this one! The government threw everything it had into reinforcing this rally, and I was upside down for a whole 2 days. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 May all trades blow up in my face like this one! The government threw everything it had into reinforcing this rally, and I was upside down for a whole 2 days.Oh wowz, look. And there goes those gains evaporating today. Lets post every day the market goes up and down 2%. Dummy. Link to post Share on other sites
aucu 3 Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 This thread is a massive dissapointment. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted March 31, 2009 Share Posted March 31, 2009 Jumpin on board with yo-yo for a short-term short commercial real estate trade. 75 shares of SRS at 52.60, prepared to buy 75 more if it goes under 50. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 Jumpin on board with yo-yo for a short-term short commercial real estate trade. 75 shares of SRS at 52.60, prepared to buy 75 more if it goes under 50.Eh, screw that. Sold at 54 for negligible gain. The housing numbers were bad, but they beat. And market looks like it wants to rally. I'll have to wait for a better shorting opportunity than this.Went long in size - 600 shares of FAS at 5.54 (3x long Financial ETF). Strictly a day trade. Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted April 1, 2009 Share Posted April 1, 2009 Exited FAS, only ~4% gain unfortunately. But i'm not going to hold it and watch market go negative and evaporate my gains. Could've gotten 8% at the peak of trading but I was more holding for a gigantic gain then worried about giving a few % back. Just no way i'll let a positive trade go back to 0 or negative. The only question now is if I want to go back into SRS to hedge again...leaning towards yes. Such a crazy market we have to work with! Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 Now I definitely want some SRS...nibble nibble @ 45 Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,768 Posted April 2, 2009 Share Posted April 2, 2009 I'm loving Brazil right now. EWZ is up 2.58 today. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 5, 2009 Share Posted April 5, 2009 As I said 2 weeks ago, PPIP is complete smoke-screen BS.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/01/opinion/...nted=2&_r=1The plan is for the banks and hedge funds to sell each other the worst of the worst toxic crap, usingFDIC guaranteed bonds, then default and let the FDIC eat the $350 billion loss.The PPIP was just TARP III. It was injecting anouther $350 billion into banks. All the smoke and mirrors was just a way to do it without congress having to pass a law because they know congress WILL NOT do it again.So, what do they do in June when banks need, yet another, $350 billion to cover losses for the quarter? Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 6, 2009 Share Posted April 6, 2009 http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 6, 2009 Share Posted April 6, 2009 http://www.cnbc.com/id/30069223 Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,768 Posted April 7, 2009 Share Posted April 7, 2009 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129599-slv...icle_sb_popularI love the new, shorter, WW posts, btw.Some of you may have taken my suggestion to purchase SBLK, especially when it was below $1.50. While I personally have a target of $5 on this stock, I would like to give a quick warning. The dry shipping index, which monitors rates paid for shipping, has dropped over 35% in the last two weeks. This index is good indicator for how well dry shipping companies will be doing in the short run. It is also a very reliable indicator for the stock market and economy as a whole. The current drop reflects significant problems in global trade. If you own SBLK, you may want to consider hedging your investment with covered calls. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 strat's real-money positions:OMX @ $5.70 (bought at open today)BAC @ $7.50I wish I had waited a few minutes to buy OMX. Link to post Share on other sites
CaneBrain 97 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 When does BAC's profit #s for the most recent quarter come out? I bought a bunch of BAC at 3.68 and I am really looking forward to getting something right for once. Link to post Share on other sites
Piddle Duck 0 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 When does BAC's profit #s for the most recent quarter come out? I bought a bunch of BAC at 3.68 and I am really looking forward to getting something right for once.The week of April 20th Link to post Share on other sites
Yoda 1 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 strat's real-money positions:OMX @ $5.70 (bought at open today)BAC @ $7.50I wish I had waited a few minutes to buy OMX.Why are you buying Office Max? Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 http://www.cnbc.com/id/30089668/"The issues are easy to identify: the government and millions of consumers alike spend more money than they bring in or make. When the government needs more money it raises taxes or goes further into debt. When Americans need more money, they charge it or take out more of their home equity. The solution is also easy to identify: financial literacy."Wrong!!!!The problem is we are a net importer nation. In the 60s this caused gold to flow out of the country, so in '71 we went off the last remnants of the gold standard. This allowed us to just print money, but that lead to the inflation of the '70s. So, in 1982 we got Greenspan. His solution was for us to BORROW THE TRADE DEFICT BACK.Think about every down economy since 1982. What was the solution? Lower interest rates, ease lending standards, discourage saving and encourage more debt. We didn't print the money into existance (by having the Fed buy the debt), we borrowed it back into the economy from our trade partners.Even now, the proposed "solution" to the current economic woe is to get the debt flowing again. So, this guy says the way to fix the economy is to teach everyone to spend less than they earn. WRONG! If we all did that, we'd still be in the recession that started back in the 1980s when Volker stopped printing money.What we need, is to restore the balance of trade. But how do we do that? Lower our wages to match those of China? Stop importing from China and the rest of the world, making prices of good skyrocket? Either means a mass reduction in our standard of living (from what we had a few years ago) since it took 5 people in the rest of the world to make the stuff we were using then throwing away.All a balance of trade would do is allow us to stop going further into debt. It would not let us become a significantly net saving nation. If consumers save, someone (companies, government?) have to borrow it or it becomes a drain on the economy. So we set up an economy where business or government have to constantly go further into debt? When they have so much debt that they are bankrupt, then what? The savers don't get paid back, or we have to print the money out of thin air (inflation)?Anyone that proports to know the simple answer, clearly doesn't fully understand the problem. Link to post Share on other sites
SBriand 4 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 3 User(s) are reading this topic (0 Guests and 1 Anonymous Users)2 Members: El GuapoHey, you...the above is why I don't post here, the very few mentions of stocks in this thread are buried in this guys fascination to see his words on the screen. Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted April 14, 2009 Share Posted April 14, 2009 Why are you buying Office Max?met the CEO a few weeks ago. solid guy. they got raped in a merger just before he took over, good things were happening before the recession hit. Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now