Jump to content

stock market thread


Recommended Posts

I am really trying to understand you. It seems like you want the economy and the financial markets to fall. Why?
He's not unlike the short sellers you'll see on most stock boards on Yahoo/finance.Seems a pattern wher WW will talk down the markets when he's in Bonds and otherwise, he stays awayI cant' help but buy on the high of the day for any stock I'm in.
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

I am really trying to understand you. It seems like you want the economy and the financial markets to fall. Why?
He's not unlike the short sellers you'll see on most stock boards on Yahoo/finance.Seems a pattern wher WW will talk down the markets when he's in Bonds and otherwise, he stays awayI cant' help but buy on the high of the day for any stock I'm in.
Link to post
Share on other sites

actuary you are just the WORST (or best?) at double posting. I so love it.also to all of you stock people that do this for a living. would this be a bad time to try a career at financial management of sorts? as some of you may know I've been looking for a new job/career lately and my mom gave me the contact info of a guy at wachovia who said he could help me get into their financial planning thing or whatever it is. I'm pretty skeptical to try that now because of the overall market and I didn't think wachovia was doing all that great either. thoughts?

Link to post
Share on other sites
Yea, at 124 and change. But not a lot - because I have a feeling i'll be buying more next week at 118 haha.
Did I say next week? :club:
Link to post
Share on other sites
actuary you are just the WORST (or best?) at double posting. I so love it.
Yes, indeed I am. It's this IPS Sever error or something.. eh... I suck
also to all of you stock people that do this for a living. would this be a bad time to try a career at financial management of sorts? as some of you may know I've been looking for a new job/career lately and my mom gave me the contact info of a guy at wachovia who said he could help me get into their financial planning thing or whatever it is. I'm pretty skeptical to try that now because of the overall market and I didn't think wachovia was doing all that great either. thoughts?
I won't speak to the details of Wachovia; but yes it's a good time from a demand perspective. It's not as if you'll be managing portfolio's in 6 months, so the "current climate" is not relevant. IMO long term trends are people getting older (more asets to manage), less Pensions, lower Social Security as a proportion of retirement income, and as younger people get older, the education level and trust of the Stock Market and desire to "self direct" portfolios will grow, as will the use of more sophisticated securities. And it's so freak'n interesting.Now, I'm not in that industrty and I have no idea if there is a glut of supply already.
Link to post
Share on other sites

MY new stragtegy: Actually think about entry points and exit points. Yeah, as noted before I'm new to indv stock buying. I like my picks from a long term valuation point; but now armed with some more info, I hate most all my entry points. Going forward, I'm consdering a bit of consolidation and then taking say 10-13% of the portfolio and use it to "trade" one stock that I follow very closely, while not staring cluelesly at the baords for the other 5. So I got some reading to do on which stock might wokr best for frequnet trading. For now, I won't short or buy options; but just move from cash to stock and back again. I need something that has definite trends but with enough swings to be profitble trading. I really don't care much about the long term move.It would be easier to do it with one I already own, if it would work.WMTEGNCRDNURSYUMCSCOused ot own RF as mentioned before. Which was a perfect example of my horrible timing. I'm pretty excited about looking at the rate of change as seen in the MA Crossover analysis. Picking the right set on MA, (SMA/EMA) and Time Periods, 2?, 3? 4/9/14 5/10/20 10/50/200 etc... intrigues the shit out of me.I know it can't be that easy but generally, I'm just looking to make more money off the general stock buyer who, like me now, pays no attention to these indicators. I have not seen Candlesticks be useful for me. I can't see wher they are reliable enough. But I probably need to learn more, obv.Yoda and El Guapo and anyone else?What tech analysis do you like? I hear you, Yoda, mention 50ma and 200ma quite a bit.Do you combine it with Valuation analysis, or are you all chart and momentum?My "goal" is to own correct or underpriced stocks and accumnulate at proper entry points. If it works well, I may start making bigger moves with more than one stock. I do know that in choppy markets, it's bad to look at MA's for signals. Finally, when we go bullish again in the broad market, I figure I'll get on board more with Funds again (still 65% of Portfolio), but now is a stock picker /sector market, yes?thanks for any help and sorry so long winded

Link to post
Share on other sites

Actuary -I don't really use any special analysis, or technical or fundamental. My job, is to find the best money managers, not do it directly myself.I am a huge, huge, huge proponent of proper asset allocation combined with active portfolio management, with slight tweaking for bear/bull markets.We are down 21% from the high just 8-9 months ago. We hit a true Bear market today. Although those are huge numbers, I do not have one client down that much. Some down less than 10% during that time, some even had some positive months when we were declining.The reason we don't pull out the money right now and stick it in cash or treasuries like Wrong Way, because if you miss the first 5-10 days of a Bull market it can cost you 10-20% in the long run.

Link to post
Share on other sites
The reason we don't pull out the money right now and stick it in cash or treasuries like Wrong Way, because if you miss the first 5-10 days of a Bull market it can cost you 10-20% in the long run.
thanks for the reply.I agree being all out is a risky move for long term results; I'm looking more to practice timing with a small percentage with the right type of stock.My "problem" - to the extent my actions are creating/destroying wealth relative to a buy and hold strategy - is not that I stay out too long; but that I get into depressed sectors too early and then ride it down more before a turn around. I'm ahead of the S&P over the period I've started actively managing; but my goodness, it should be by a greater margin, imo. Some great picks, like EGN and SSGDX, coupled with early bad timing as I blindly diversified (Fidelity Fin Sector, Real Estate, too) But I caught Gold at a good time, and moved in and out of HealthCare enough to have a soft landing.I've heard (I think) it's better to catch the middle 80% of the uptrend, than to try to pick the bottomAgain, I pragmatically understand quite a bit about CAPM and market efficiency, random walk, etc.. particularly that ther is no reason I should think I can pick companies whose Stock Prices are likely to increase any better than the "Market" already priced in.But, what I am buying into more and more (tempered always by my realism) is that Stocks Prices are determined by people and in the short term enough people react to certain indicators, that one can benefit by observing these... as long as the trading costs and discipline are there.Honestly, I'd love this board to be about theoretical discussion, and less about indv stocks. The whole concept of Stock Valuation, in the absense of dividends esp,, is intriguing to me. I mean in theory stocks only go up because the "Present Value of Future Expected CashFlows" increases either because 1. the company increases anticipated earnings2. the risk of those earnings actually coming in decreases3. interest rates (discounting mechanism) decreasesWhy in the world would one ever think he can pick a stock that the "entire market" has said is worth X to go to X+. Obviously, it happens. That is conceptually very bizaar (I mean I could keep you up all night exciting) to me.dove tailing to my next thoughts.... the cynical part of me is starting to understand the sentiment that the Stock Market is a game of finding where the big money is going and get in and ride it up. It's the giant Tulip? Bulb scheme. Find a bigger sucker and keep one eye open for the next opportunity/sector. While even Buffet says buy stocks in companies (maybe it was Graham) as if you are buying a piece of them long term. Makes sense; but lately, I've considered how different those two actions really are. For instance, I"d love to own a piece of YUM!. I'm certain I'd get to draw some salary every week for a long long time. I'm pretty sure it would go up at least with inflation overall. But, I'm much much les certain someone else is willing to pay more for my stock than I did 5 yrs from now, or 15 yrs from now - at least enough more that would compensate me for not actually "receiving a salary each week" that a true owner would.ok.,.I'll breathe now.
Link to post
Share on other sites

There are so many determining factors outside of just a companies balance sheet and p/e ratio. Obv all money managers whether institutional or like Yoda, are looking for companies with higher intrinsic value than market share, and bought at a discount for various reasons.Media hugely drives the markets more than any time in our history.Also, the big investment banks have too much influence, prepare to see legislation change on this somehow.Just Thursday or Fri (cant remember which) Goldman came out with a short sale recommendation on Citi bank. They sold Citi short 5 months ago, that one statement is going to net them 100's of millions. They should not have that power.

Link to post
Share on other sites
MY new stragtegy: Actually think about entry points and exit points. Yeah, as noted before I'm new to indv stock buying. I like my picks from a long term valuation point; but now armed with some more info, I hate most all my entry points. Going forward, I'm consdering a bit of consolidation and then taking say 10-13% of the portfolio and use it to "trade" one stock that I follow very closely, while not staring cluelesly at the baords for the other 5. So I got some reading to do on which stock might wokr best for frequnet trading. For now, I won't short or buy options; but just move from cash to stock and back again. I need something that has definite trends but with enough swings to be profitble trading. I really don't care much about the long term move.It would be easier to do it with one I already own, if it would work.WMTEGNCRDNURSYUMCSCOused ot own RF as mentioned before. Which was a perfect example of my horrible timing. I'm pretty excited about looking at the rate of change as seen in the MA Crossover analysis. Picking the right set on MA, (SMA/EMA) and Time Periods, 2?, 3? 4/9/14 5/10/20 10/50/200 etc... intrigues the shit out of me.I know it can't be that easy but generally, I'm just looking to make more money off the general stock buyer who, like me now, pays no attention to these indicators. I have not seen Candlesticks be useful for me. I can't see wher they are reliable enough. But I probably need to learn more, obv.Yoda and El Guapo and anyone else?What tech analysis do you like? I hear you, Yoda, mention 50ma and 200ma quite a bit.Do you combine it with Valuation analysis, or are you all chart and momentum?My "goal" is to own correct or underpriced stocks and accumnulate at proper entry points. If it works well, I may start making bigger moves with more than one stock. I do know that in choppy markets, it's bad to look at MA's for signals. Finally, when we go bullish again in the broad market, I figure I'll get on board more with Funds again (still 65% of Portfolio), but now is a stock picker /sector market, yes?thanks for any help and sorry so long winded
I wish I could say I had an exact specific strategy and list you my criteria and rules. Unfortunately I cannot :club: I like a combination of technical and fundamental analysis when deciding on my stock picks. I would say I lean towards technicals for shorter term buys and for entry/exit points. And I use fundamentals and sector trends/analysis a lot more for long term stuff.I do use the moving averages a lot like you said - and also like you mentioned, the only "real" reason is because that's what most other people do. Does it make sense to buy or sell because of a certain moving average or support/resistance level? Maybe, but that's a whole other discussion. Other people do it, so it is at the very least worth being aware of.I love, LOVE the 'key statistics' page on yahoo finance. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MONI am mostly looking at trailing PE, forward PE, PEG Ratio. Also eyeing RoA, RoE, Growth, Cash/Debt, Short Ratio, etc. For charting I like stockcharts.com - I primarily like 50/200 dma while also sometimes checking out 10/30 for short term stuff, but i'll also look at overbought/oversold signals in macd, stocastics, and relative strength (rsi14 and rsi2 for short term stuff).I also think your idea about learning specific stocks and knowing how they move is great. If you keep a screener up and are constantly watching it, you really start to get an idea for how it trades against a certain set of variables/market factors. I use Ameritrade's screener and have about 30 stocks up on my main list. Everything I own, and everything I might want to own sooner or later. ---------------And in regards to your next post about looking for bottoms and being too early I totally hear that. We all know I was early on Real Estate, but I averaged down, bought at the lows, and got out with a profit on the rebound. I'm currently getting in too early all over again in case you are wondering - or hopefully not lolI just really subscribe to the buy on dips philosophy - I like to catch big long crazy gains. Start out small, add a little more as it goes down. Add more when it bottoms and turns around, add more when it's on it's way back up. And in the end you bought a ton on both sides of a V bottom (if all goes right). In the case of housing, well, it was too soon to hold everything and watch it go up up up. So I got out and started all over again 20% lower. Lesson learned. Financials will be the next bitch to tackle. Just not sure when yet.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Ken Heebner - Genius. I try to keep a stock screen of the CGM holdings but it is only reported every 3 months - according to my screen it was down over 2% - thats how fast he changes things when he sees a different direction.CGM FOCUS FUNDNet Asset Value: 60.06Trade Time: Jun 26Change: Down 0.15 (0.25%)
I figgered it out - yahoo shows Wamu in the top 10 holdings. I guarantee he has been shorting that heavily, accounting for much of the gains. I remember 2 quarters ago he was shorting some of the mortgage stocks and they showed up in top 10 holdings. It doesn't say specifically if it is long or short - but it was disclosed as short in the prospectus. I bet he has been shorting the shit out of a lot of financials.
Link to post
Share on other sites
There are so many determining factors outside of just a companies balance sheet and p/e ratio. Obv all money managers whether institutional or like Yoda, are looking for companies with higher intrinsic value than market share, and bought at a discount for various reasons.Media hugely drives the markets more than any time in our history.Also, the big investment banks have too much influence, prepare to see legislation change on this somehow.Just Thursday or Fri (cant remember which) Goldman came out with a short sale recommendation on Citi bank. They sold Citi short 5 months ago, that one statement is going to net them 100's of millions. They should not have that power.
I also find it really weird when Goldman downgrades a bunch of companies (like Wachovia in the last week or so). And then Wachovia comes out and downgrades Goldman. Duhhhhh. Lets all downgrade each other revenge style. There has to be so much going on behind the scenes that is soooo less than legal.
Link to post
Share on other sites
good stuff, Yoda, thanks.I'm like the yahoo statistics as well. And the "Interactive Chart" is prety cool.I'll check out the stockcharts.com
I would love to develop a real usable trading system. I am afraid some of the stuff involved is still a bit over my head. But using one of Ameritrades advanced tools like Strategy Desk I can enter in a bunch of shit and backtest it. Haven't gotten around to it yet but I plan on it. I have some books on my 'to read' list that help develop trading systems as well. But i've been more focusing on fundamental and value investing books as well as 'tips', 'market wizards', 'mistakes every investor makes' type things lately.
Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the link below is free - I picked up some shares as my two biggest winners in the past year have been picks from this guy (BZP and CLR) so I tend to pay attention when he recommends an energy stock.PEG.TO

Link to post
Share on other sites
I also find it really weird when Goldman downgrades a bunch of companies (like Wachovia in the last week or so). And then Wachovia comes out and downgrades Goldman. Duhhhhh. Lets all downgrade each other revenge style. There has to be so much going on behind the scenes that is soooo less than legal.
I hope GS keeps getting beat down with downgrades, they are doing so much better than the others. This is at the top of my list whenever I think financials are starting to rebound.
Link to post
Share on other sites
I think the link below is free - I picked up some shares as my two biggest winners in the past year have been picks from this guy (BZP and CLR) so I tend to pay attention when he recommends an energy stock.PEG.TO
Interesting...I like that they have the natural gas exposure. Might have to take a flyer on this - it's near 52 week highs right now...Symbol in the states (on the pink sheets) - PEGFF.PK http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PEGFF.PK
Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting...I like that they have the natural gas exposure. Might have to take a flyer on this - it's near 52 week highs right now...Symbol in the states (on the pink sheets) - PEGFF.PK http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PEGFF.PK
I like the fact that Etrade lets you buy on six foreign exchanges now - something that TDAmeritrade hasn't incorporated yet. I'm also glad that Yahoo Finance gives quotes/charts on foreign stocks like the one above. They did a one for six reverse split on May 9 so the stock hasn't moved that much in the past year.
Link to post
Share on other sites

Yahoo is great. Its funny with all the fancy software I have access to, for quick quotes or info I go to Yahoo finance.It does not delve down or have the search functionality of say, Morningstar, but its not bad. And it is pretty accurate now, I had some problems in the years past where past returns were not correct, but I have not seen that in awhile.

Link to post
Share on other sites
I like the fact that Etrade lets you buy on six foreign exchanges now - something that TDAmeritrade hasn't incorporated yet. I'm also glad that Yahoo Finance gives quotes/charts on foreign stocks like the one above. They did a one for six reverse split on May 9 so the stock hasn't moved that much in the past year.
Ohhh yea on the chart I see the 2 to 12 jump. There is a little more data under PEG.TO
Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting news for you guys. My new partner just went to an economic meeting put on by first trust in Chicago end of last week and one of the nations top 6 economists, is so Bullish on the market right now they think it may hit 15,000 DJIA by the end of the year. But one thing has to happen first, that is the Fed has to raise interest rates, then cost of Oil and other commodities will plummet. Most of these guys are personally shorting energy sector stocks.They are creating a white paper that should be out in a couple weeks on the data of the oil in the us, and the gist of it is going to be we could cut OPEC off completely if we so choose. The initial findings have already gone to the president, as one of these guys is one of the White Houses cheif economist.So just some info FYI. DO with it what you will.

Link to post
Share on other sites
They are creating a white paper that should be out in a couple weeks on the data of the oil in the us, and the gist of it is going to be we could cut OPEC off completely if we so choose.
I don't buy this, at least in the next few years.But thanks for the info.
Link to post
Share on other sites
Interesting news for you guys. My new partner just went to an economic meeting put on by first trust in Chicago end of last week and one of the nations top 6 economists, is so Bullish on the market right now they think it may hit 15,000 DJIA by the end of the year. But one thing has to happen first, that is the Fed has to raise interest rates, then cost of Oil and other commodities will plummet. Most of these guys are personally shorting energy sector stocks.They are creating a white paper that should be out in a couple weeks on the data of the oil in the us, and the gist of it is going to be we could cut OPEC off completely if we so choose. The initial findings have already gone to the president, as one of these guys is one of the White Houses cheif economist.So just some info FYI. DO with it what you will.
15000, wow. I'll give odds against that! Talk about a win win :club:
Link to post
Share on other sites

our leaders are pussies beholden to the the enviromentalist wackos.Otherwise, I'd belive we could be energy independent much sooner.I can't bring myself to short the only sector working for me right now: Oil, Coal, and Nat Gas.I'm also betin on the dollar going up and expecting a pull back in commodities when it does; however, I think the long term world growth demand will keep energy "up and to the right." in aggregate. What is the true supply/demand crossing point for Oil, Coal, Nat Gas, and how much is "bubble" ?

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

Announcements


×
×
  • Create New...