WrongWay 0 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 And in case anyone thinks I am making the crud up....From today's AZ Republic.http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles...d0319cover.html"We're targeting younger, more active retirees who want to be in a vibrant, urban setting like Surprise Stadium Village," said Lyn Legarde, a lawyer representing Avenir Group. Rents within the community would range from $2,500 to $3,000 per month, said Legarde. 1) Surprise is the edge of the city. One of the true foreclosure hotbeds. 2) There are cows currently grazing on this "vibrant, urban setting". 3) $2500 and up for a 1000 sqft appartment? You can rent a 2000 sqft house for under $1000 a month out there right now.http://phoenix.craigslist.org/apa/610429454.htmlWHAT ARE THEY THINKING?????????Actually, I know what they are thinking. They spent WAY too much for the land a few years ago when everyone was suffering from mass delusion that this would be the next Scottsdale (not that anyone would pay that much rent in Scottsdale.... I lived in Scottsdale 3 years ago and was paying $650 a month to rent an apartment.) If they don't build something SUPER expensive on the CRAZY overpriced land they bought, they are SURELY bankrupt. Better to go forward on a wing and a prayer (without the wing) than be broke now. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 up 415 right now.... I don't know what to make of it.... Link to post Share on other sites
dms26 3 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 up 415 right now.... I don't know what to make of it....I would expect the bears to beat it back down in the next few days just like every other time the Fed has cut rates. It seems like whole market overreacts to every bit of news, good and bad. It should be interesting when banks report next month. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 I would expect the bears to beat it back down in the next few days just like every other time the Fed has cut rates. It seems like whole market overreacts to every bit of news, good and bad. It should be interesting when banks report next month.Well I expect fund to profit take tomorrow. But not sure where this leaves us for the next few months. Link to post Share on other sites
dms26 3 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Well I expect fund to profit take tomorrow. But not sure where this leaves us for the next few months.well the fed is running out of rates to cut, and that seems like the only time we have good days. I can see the market panic when the fed has to take no action. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 well the fed is running out of rates to cut, and that seems like the only time we have good days. I can see the market panic when the fed has to take no action.Maybe in a couple months it will be the first time in history the fed goes to a negative discount rate and they pay banks to take loans! Huh?Huh? Link to post Share on other sites
strategy 4 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Maybe in a couple months it will be the first time in history the fed goes to a negative discount rate and they pay banks to take loans! Huh?Huh?super likely imo Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 Maybe in a couple months it will be the first time in history the fed goes to a negative discount rate and they pay banks to take loans! Huh?Huh?2.25% interest rate and 4% reported inflation rate with real inflation (take out the hedonic adjustment) running quite a bit higher than that.That IS paying banks to take the money?What do you call a 400 point up day? Short entry point? Getting back to where we were late last week? A day without a major insolvancy? Oh I know.... relief that they can keep hiding the truth for atleast another quarter. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted March 18, 2008 Share Posted March 18, 2008 ffs on mar 6th when the 10y got squeezed the 10y cash fly went bid for like 15 tics which is insanetoday it came in 20 tics hahahaha which is even more bizarre because futures usually lead the way downcash was king todayand lol @ this stock rally. yeah they finished at the highs, but what was there really to like today with the fed cutting rates on a day when PPI comes out hot? i would be astonished if they don't get drilled tomorrow like immed after testing the trendline. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 If you play on Wall Street, just be aware that it is a rigged game.Yesterday Freddie and Fannie trading was DOUBLE the normal rate and the price rises 50%. 12 hours later we learn OFHEO is dropping the reserve requirements allowing them to buy more loans while raising less capital. (In short, delaying the time when they will have to admit they are insolvant.)Word is that the Bear Stearns implosion was planned by the big boys that shorted it than leaked rumors of insolvancy to trigger the run. A few hedge funds rake in huge bucks to keep operatingfor a few more months, while others lose BILLIONS. Hey, all is fair inlove and war, and Wall Street todayis war.How much of yesterday's rally was based on this leaked info of GSE regulation change? How much isrelief that tehFed will let them keep hiding thier losses? How much of it is pure manipulation? The market was over-short with tripple expiration tomorrow... time for the big boys to run a short-squeeze. In times like these, I choose not to play at the rigged table. Link to post Share on other sites
WrongWay 0 Posted March 19, 2008 Share Posted March 19, 2008 Wow... I didn't see that dip coming. I thought the up-side manipulators would be dominating the down-side guys for atleast the rest of the week.http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home"Investors are thinking more and more this will be a long and drawn out recession, and that pulls down commodity prices and energy prices.'' Man, can you believe these doom and gloom, Chicken Little, Bear Fookers? Man... little late to the party, aren't they."Monsanto Co., the world's biggest seed producer, fell the most in five years, losing $13.21, or 12 percent, to $98.87. Wheat, corn and soybeans dropped by the maximum permitted by the Chicago Board of Trade as rain improved crop prospects in Australia and farmers worldwide prepared to sow more grain to take advantage of last month's record prices. Monsanto also lost a bid to have France's highest court overturn a ban on genetically modified corn. "Good thing that stock was recently upgraded and is going nowhere but up! Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Has anyone here read Security Analysis by Benjamin Graham? Is it worth the read? Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 If you play on Wall Street, just be aware that it is a rigged game.You see, I for one appreciate your rational thinking/teaching on some aspects of the Home Financing fiasco; but then you also seem to be full of this sorta chatter.But I may have you mixed up with another person.In my retirement portfolio (all Mutual Funds.)fwiw, I'm 16% Bonds, 2/3 US 1/3 New Market.25% Foreign Stock, mostly large company, Value and Growth10% Cashof the remaining 49% 2/3 is in sector funds - pretty evenly split: Gold, Finance, Computer Services, Healthcare, Real Estate, Energyand the rest is in a couple small cap funds and my company stockI think I need some consumer staples sector, or something. I tried to pick some sectors with some opposing correlation and decent returnsjust sharing.I need to save more. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 You see, I for one appreciate your rational thinking/teaching on some aspects of the Home Financing fiasco; but then you also seem to be full of this sorta chatter.But I may have you mixed up with another person.In my retirement portfolio (all Mutual Funds.)fwiw, I'm 16% Bonds, 2/3 US 1/3 New Market.25% Foreign Stock mostly, large company, Value and Growth10% Cashof the remaining 49% 2/3 is in sector funds - pretty evenly split: Gold, Finance, Computer Services, Healthcare, Real Estate, Energyand the rest is in a couple small cap funds and my company stockjust sharing.I need to save more.You have a glaring weakness in large cap stocks and no mid cap. You may also want some emerging markets.EDIT: FWIW. I'm not trying to be pushy, after I posted this I saw you could take it that way. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 You have a glaring weakness in large cap stocks and no mid cap. You may also want some emerging markets.EDIT: FWIW. I'm not trying to be pushy, after I posted this I saw you could take it that way.cool.I appreciate it.The Foreign funds are overall about 15% emerging in their allocation; but I agree.A dedicated Emerging Stock fund would work well. I do have the New Markets Bond fundAnd the Sector funds are heavily weighted to Large CapsBetween those and the "Small Caps", I hit some Mid cap.I used to do the Index funds and more "generic" diversification and when I rolled out my last 401k, I decided to have some fun and go with Sectors. Figured I'd start popping my cherry before taking about 10-20% and buy indiv stocks. Takes getting useed to the swings Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 cool.I appreciate it.The Foreign funds are overall about 15% emerging in their allocation; but I agree.A dedicated Emerging Stock fund would work well. I do have the New Markets Bond fundAnd the Sector funds are heavily weighted to Large CapsBetween those and the "Small Caps", I hit some Mid cap.I used to do the Index funds and more "generic" diversification and when I rolled out my last 401k, I decided to have some fun and go with Sectors. Figured I'd start popping my cherry before taking about 10-20% and buy indiv stocks. Takes getting useed to the swingsI am not a fan of index funds. They are great for someone like you who are doing by yourself, but the other Advisors I see using them make me cringe (although I do use them on occasion in sector funds like you are using). Top managed money, will always beat indexes. I know that T Rowe price throws out these lipper averages and that 70% of funds do not beat there indexes, and for the most part that is true, and some are very expensive. Usually these funds are bundled in 401ks that are garbage and SOLD to the company owners.I know this thread is supposed to be to talk about individual stocks and Yoda and others have fun with it, some have done very well. But, my opinion is we, as regular individuals, do not have access to the same information that Professional Money Mangers have, and that why they consistently beat the indexes and poeple go busto all the time buying an selling individual stock.I do it for a living and I do not buy individual stock anymore for myself. (Not saying in the future I won't here and ther, definately not part of my retirement portfolio though) Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 dbl; post Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 to be clear, my Sector funds are not index funds. Although, I wouldn't be surprised if some mimic a similar Index-Sector fund.Hopefully 10-20% of my retirement wont be critical to our lifestyle and my stock picking will be decent . I can dream Link to post Share on other sites
Dratj 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I just let the bank deal with my RRSPS (Can. equiv to 401k ithink )Is that bad? If i self manage I can circumvent the 2% MER but then I'd probably lose all my money. Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I just let the bank deal with my RRSPS (Can. equiv to 401k ithink )Is that bad? If i self manage I can circumvent the 2% MER but then I'd probably lose all my money.Which Bank you with? I am with CIBC and have been very dissapointed with my funds performance(since 2001 a total ROI of 2.1% on a fund that is 80% equitys/20% income). I am almost thinking of moving my money to a low mer index fund cuz those goofs dont seem to know what the **** they are doing. Link to post Share on other sites
Dratj 0 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Which Bank you with? I am with CIBC and have been very dissapointed with my funds performance(since 2001 a total ROI of 2.1% on a fund that is 80% equitys/20% income). I am almost thinking of moving my money to a low mer index fund cuz those goofs dont seem to know what the **** they are doing.Scotiabank. Don't know my ROI but it probably sucks too. I think the MER's eat the shit out of them. Been in since about 2002. Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 I just let the bank deal with my RRSPS (Can. equiv to 401k ithink )Is that bad? If i self manage I can circumvent the 2% MER but then I'd probably lose all my money.You pay a 2% money management fee on a 401k? Good lord thats high.Which Bank you with? I am with CIBC and have been very dissapointed with my funds performance(since 2001 a total ROI of 2.1% on a fund that is 80% equitys/20% income). I am almost thinking of moving my money to a low mer index fund cuz those goofs dont seem to know what the **** they are doing.Your total ROI since 2001 has been 2.1% on an 80/20 split??? A terrible money manager woul dhave gotten 8% during that time frame. Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 You pay a 2% money management fee on a 401k? Good lord thats high.Your total ROI since 2001 has been 2.1% on an 80/20 split??? A terrible money manager woul dhave gotten 8% during that time frame.Actually most of the big banks are close to 2.5% MER nowadays up here. And yes that 2.1% roi is correct Link to post Share on other sites
El Guapo 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 Actually most of the big banks are close to 2.5% MER nowadays up here. And yes that 2.1% roi is correct That is dumbfounding, that is lower than a money market cash account would have made over that period of time Link to post Share on other sites
grocery_mony 8 Posted March 20, 2008 Share Posted March 20, 2008 That is dumbfounding, that is lower than a money market cash account would have made over that period of timeI can make 4% on uninvested funds on E-Trade for F sakes. I keep thinking that I am due for a good year but am still waiting Link to post Share on other sites
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