gobears 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 From Barry Ritholtz at realmoney.comOkay, let's review the Bull's Sheet (say that 3 times fast):At 11,000, we were told to "Just Buy Something."Then Dupont and Alcoa missed - they were unable to pass along price increases - but not to worry, many people proclaimed it was specific to just those companiesThen Yahoo and Intel and Apple and eBay made bad noises. But again, don't y'all worry yer purty lil heads over it. Not only were these company specific problems, it was also due to reg FD - management cannot give excessively bullish guidance - at least, not they way they used to lie to us.Not to worry, the "Pain of Lowering Bar in Tech Will Pay Off"Now GE misses.Puh-leeze.How many companies have to miss earnings, revenues or lower guidance before any acknowledges this for what it is?Incidentally, I expect that the market has one last rally left in it. Some apologist will rationalize the end of this cyclical Bull market by declaring the Fed is now done, or perhaps a truce in the Middle East between Iran and Israel will be he excuse. Maybe Oil comes in.Regardless, you know my views - the cycle is over, the economy is slowing, the consumer is all but spent, Real Estate is last years news.It's still too early to cue the fat lady, but I can see her backstage, sipping on a nice cup of tea with lemon and honey. By the way MK, nice short term call so far! Link to post Share on other sites
PAYforUSC 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 By the way MK, nice short term call so far! i'm PWNED if we can't hold the 1,244 mark. this captain is going down with the ship. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 If the trendline dating back to Oct. 28 2005 (@ 1270) doesn't hold, look out below. Should head back down to 1200 if it fails. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 even with stocks getting killed, i'm sitting here nursing my position which would benefit from a bond rally. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 ps, gobears, i really like ritholtz. Link to post Share on other sites
PAYforUSC 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 even with stocks getting killed, i'm sitting here nursing my position which would benefit from a bond rally.how long do you hold postions MK? Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 even with stocks getting killed, i'm sitting here nursing my position which would benefit from a bond rally.how long do you hold postions MK?depends. sometimes weeks. sometimes minutes. Link to post Share on other sites
PAYforUSC 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 even with stocks getting killed, i'm sitting here nursing my position which would benefit from a bond rally.how long do you hold postions MK?depends. sometimes weeks. sometimes minutes.sweet Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 you guys just catch santelli? when he said "the fact that fixed income has been very quiet with a lot of movement from other areas has a lot of people nervous," he was talking about me. Link to post Share on other sites
robert f 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 you guys just catch santelli? when he said "the fact that fixed income has been very quiet with a lot of movement from other areas has a lot of people nervous," he was talking about me.Should I buy bonds??? I sold my alot of my stock last Thursday. It is sitting in a interest bearing account. What should I do???? Link to post Share on other sites
PrtyPSux 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 I want to learn this too. My mom used to do that daily trading thing, Ive always been interested. good threadA+ Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 I would advise all of you youngins who have the very special dream of TP/MM to investigate trading as a career. The similarities to poker are staggering, and it's much more realistic. And a better living 99% of the time. Link to post Share on other sites
HoosierAlum 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 I would advise all of you youngins who have the very special dream of TP/MM to investigate trading as a career. The similarities to poker are staggering, and it's much more realistic. And a better living 99% of the time.I was a finance major in college, and graduated from IU in June '05. I haven't landed a job since graduation, but I think I have the skill set to become a successful trader. (Ive been TP/MT since June, but Im ready to work)MK, I live in Chicago right now and was wondering where I should look in order to land a trading job. Any websites or secrets you can give me to help me get my foot in the door? I have a friend who works for GHCO, and there is a possibility I can get a job there, but who knows. Any help you can give me would be greatly appreciated. Link to post Share on other sites
Petoria 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 I would advise all of you youngins who have the very special dream of TP/MM to investigate trading as a career. The similarities to poker are staggering, and it's much more realistic. And a better living 99% of the time.I was a finance major in college, and graduated from IU in June '05. I haven't landed a job since graduation, but I think I have the skill set to become a successful trader. (Ive been TP/MT since June, but Im ready to work)MK, I live in Chicago right now and was wondering where I should look in order to land a trading job. Any websites or secrets you can give me to help me get my foot in the door? I have a friend who works for GHCO, and there is a possibility I can get a job there, but who knows. Any help you can give me would be greatly appreciated.Watch the movie "Boiler Room" and "Wall Street", you'll learn what not to do from them. :lol:btw, anybody see what happened to Google today? WOW. -36.98 Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 MK, I live in Chicago right now and was wondering where I should look in order to land a trading job. Any websites or secrets you can give me to help me get my foot in the door? I have a friend who works for GHCO, and there is a possibility I can get a job there, but who knows. Any help you can give me would be greatly appreciated.Do you have the book The Fast Track by Mariam Naficy? It's a book that's all about how to land jobs in I-banking, consulting, and trading. Absolutely imperative. It's a little outdated, but most of what she says still holds true.Does IU have a career center-type website where companies post job listings specifically for IU graduates? Illinois has it and it is a surprisingly great resource. Tons of Chicago banks and trading firms have listings there. You can also search the CBOT, CME, and CBOE websites for the listing of all the firms that have clearing accounts for each exchange. After I graduated, I sent probably 400 resumes to every place I could find. You have to be really aggressive. Trading firms like to stay somewhat anonymous, so they don't post ads in the classifieds or anything. You have to seek them out. The fact that you're able to hunt them down shows them that you're serious about it. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted January 20, 2006 Share Posted January 20, 2006 [should I buy bonds??? I sold my alot of my stock last Thursday. It is sitting in a interest bearing account. What should I do????Well if you sold a lot of your stock last Thursday - you're way ahead already! Nice Timing!Nothing wrong with holding your cash in a money market account - with the yield curve inverted, you should be getting some great short term rates.We broke 1270 Today, see what happens on Monday. I think that if we gap down Monday, might be a good time to take a small position for a trade.I'm not a trader though as I pick stocks to hold for the longer term and get out when I see something I don't like (either fundamental or technical). Link to post Share on other sites
GamblinLeaf 0 Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 I would advise all of you youngins who have the very special dream of TP/MM to investigate trading as a career. The similarities to poker are staggering, and it's much more realistic. And a better living 99% of the time.That's interesting that you mention that. I've been thinking about this a lot over the last year or so. I actually think it's probably pretty close as the failure rate for traders and poker players are very similar. I also think it might be easier to make a million dollars a year trading than playing poker given a large enough bankroll. But I sometimes wonder if it's easier to make $50k - $100k a year playing poker given only a small bankroll. I guess that might depend a lot on style.One thing I have noticed, though, is that newer traders are usually taught to treat trading like the business that it is while newer poker players are RARELY taught this way of thinking. I think that if more aspiring poker players were conditioned to control their gambool and treat poker like a business, the success rate would be quite a bit higher. Link to post Share on other sites
GamblinLeaf 0 Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 The curve is inverted. Look what happens to stocks when that happens. A lot of smart people are predicting it doesn't mean what it used to, but I tend to side with history for things like this.we may be talking about different time frames....my outlook is 6 months and nasdaq 2,600-2,800 as long as we can hold the 1,244 mark. if we do i think we break out. is your short term bearishness over the next month or so? maybe a few bear put spread options?http://www.fullcontactpoker.com/poker-foru...&highlight= Do either of you fellas use the ADX much? Over the years it has become my favorite coincidental indicator, by far. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted January 25, 2006 Share Posted January 25, 2006 The link below is for Barry Ritholtz's blog.If you're looking for some educational materials - he has a tutorial titled "Apprenticed Investor" on the right that points to some good articles that he's written.http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/200...ltz_on_the.html Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 you guys ready to get long some puts when this trendline fails?Google Link to post Share on other sites
ramalamadingdong 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 I can get into this thread!Former broker here, sold blocks of shares to institutions (pension funds, mutual funds, anyone who can afford 5000 shares or more at once :-) ) Series 7 licensed since '99.And for what its worth, I love the carnage in Google right now. Reminds folks of the lessons they should have learned only a few years ago. Link to post Share on other sites
TheLadiezMan 0 Posted February 7, 2006 Share Posted February 7, 2006 I have about $3000 that I plan to use to start investing come the summer time. It isn't much but for being 18 I hope to be able turn that into a nice sum of money through investing. I'm going to school to learn how to become an invester and hope to someday be able to buy up and sell real estate as the are I'm in, about 100 miles north of NYC, is just blowing up with new home sales as people spread north from the city. My question is what would be the best way to go about investing that money? I was thinking since I'll have access to the internet at most times of the day that penny stocks would be a good quick way to double my intial investment. Would it be wise to just wait till I get out of college? I really need money after school to start paying off student loans cause ill be about $100 grand in the hole. Link to post Share on other sites
gobears 0 Posted February 8, 2006 Share Posted February 8, 2006 I have about $3000 that I plan to use to start investing come the summer time. It isn't much but for being 18 I hope to be able turn that into a nice sum of money through investing. I'm going to school to learn how to become an invester and hope to someday be able to buy up and sell real estate as the are I'm in, about 100 miles north of NYC, is just blowing up with new home sales as people spread north from the city. My question is what would be the best way to go about investing that money? I was thinking since I'll have access to the internet at most times of the day that penny stocks would be a good quick way to double my intial investment. Would it be wise to just wait till I get out of college? I really need money after school to start paying off student loans cause ill be about $100 grand in the hole.or a good quick way to lose all your money...Paper trade for awhile to see how you would have done - but with penny stocks, be aware of the bid/ask spread as you can be down 10%+ if the stock is illiquid.Use stops on your trades - investors got killed in 2000 and many lost all their "profits" when they didn't take some off of the table when they were ahead.Learn to read the financial statements but also know the momentum crowd sometimes doesn't care about the financials. I sure wish I had bought Underarmour or Hansens (Monster drink) early on..but look at Underarmour today...gotta know when to get out of a position..don't fall in love with a stock Link to post Share on other sites
ramalamadingdong 0 Posted February 8, 2006 Share Posted February 8, 2006 I sure wish I had bought UnderarmourLocal company, headquarters is about 30 minutes south of me.CEO sold so many shares, I wouldn't touch that thing until it was public for a couple years. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted February 8, 2006 Share Posted February 8, 2006 This thing looks like it's about ready to die, but I love the company and I'll start fading it all the way down from 50% and 62% retrace levels, around $24 and $20.Yahoo! Link to post Share on other sites
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now