stock market thread

[Sheiky 0]

To underline WW's point on house prices -

[WrongWay 0]

To underline WW's point on house prices -

That graph is soooooo 2 years ago. You need to have it start to flalten there, then peak at about 210, then do a sharp u-turn and head back to about 160. Sure, we have fallen 50 from peak, but there is another 50 to go to get back to historic normal, inflation adjusted level.On a national level... we're halfway done.

[WrongWay 0]

So, what are you guys holding these days?I'll start. I'm 100% in Treasuries.

[Sheiky 0]

So, what are you guys holding these days?I'll start. I'm 100% in Treasuries.

Isn't everyone else too?Jim Rogers was on Bloomberg this afternoon, he kept banging on about agriculture commodities and how awesome they are. Which really confused me as he prefaced it by saying how much the agriculture industry sucks right now.

[WrongWay 0]

have huge amount in CGMFX Mutual FundCurrent stock/ETF holdings CMI, RIMM, ITB, PXJ, XLF, PCP, JEC, ACAS, TRN, FAN

I know he doesn't still hold these, or would not admit it, but what would have happend had you acted on his info then not known when to sell????I'm out of town 3 days next week, then is Halloween, so I'm doing this now as I may not get the chance on the exact 3 month anniversary of his wonderful picks.AND, just because I miss tracking some of Yoda's picks ;)CGMFX: July 31 open: 49.80 Today close: 28.38 Change: -43%CMI: 69.9, 26.95, -61%RIMM: 119.38, 44.96, -62%ITB: 15.02, 10.47, -30%PXJ: 29.76, 12.20, -59%XLF: 21.40, 13.75, -36%PCP: 95.62, 52.29, -45%JEC: 81.08, 30.48, -62%ACAS: 20.06, 10.67, -47%TRN: 37.01, 17.01, -54%FAN: 28.00, 10.90, -61%nice......To be fair: S&P 500 1281.37, 876.77, -31%.So, he did have one stock do 1% better than S&P.

[HollywoodAFD 0]

What will this week bring? Anyone?

[grocery_mony 8]

What will this week bring? Anyone?

down, up, down, up, upmaybe down, down, down, down, up if the hedge funds really are all liquidating

[HollywoodAFD 0]

down, up, down, up, upmaybe down, down, down, down, up if the hedge funds really are all liquidating

I love it when you talk dirty

[El Guapo 8]

up, down, up down, left, right, left right, a b select start

[grocery_mony 8]

Man I loved Contra

[aucu 3]

What will this week bring? Anyone?

Like a bad dream that I keep having again and again.The dominos are falling again.

FOXNEWS.COM HOME > WORLD World Markets Slide Further; Japan's Nikkei Hits 26-Year LowMonday, October 27, 2008

[erac22 0]

hello,I haven't posted here in a while but i wanted to see what people thought of this trade: Getting long fannie/freddie paper and shorting the long end of the treasury curve. Freddie and Fannie paper is essentially backed by the federal govt yet trading 200 bp above equivelant treasuries. This trade is simply a bet that this spread will close, which seems like a high likelihood since both treasuries and fannie/freddie paper are now liabilities of the same instution, the federal govt. Thoughts?

[mk 11]

hello,I haven't posted here in a while but i wanted to see what people thought of this trade: Getting long fannie/freddie paper and shorting the long end of the treasury curve. Freddie and Fannie paper is essentially backed by the federal govt yet trading 200 bp above equivelant treasuries. This trade is simply a bet that this spread will close, which seems like a high likelihood since both treasuries and fannie/freddie paper are now liabilities of the same instution, the federal govt. Thoughts?

fannie and freddie are *not* backed by the full faith and credit of the govt yet hence the spread over treas

[jhnyblz 0]

What about international markets? Think it's a good time to begin scooping something like these ETF iShares?

[mtdesmoines 3]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27316653"At the root it's 'the' problem," said Zandi. "If you're going to put your finger on the one thing that's gotten us into this fiasco, it's the fact that millions of homeowners are under water on their homes." WRONG! WRONG! WRONG!What got us into this fiasco was a mega credit bubble that drive demand for MBS, that lowered lending standards, ignighting a speculative bubble in real estate that was fueled by massive fraud, that caused house prices to become UNAFFORDABLE, but loans were being made anyway, and the toxic loans were packed into securites and sold off at huge profits to Wall Street....The rapid increase in home prices also gave people access to huge amounts of cheap debt whcih allowed them to maintain their standard of living despite wages that were not keeping up with inflation as many of the best jobs were off-shored or illegal labor was ignored and undercut domestic wages.House prices HAD to/HAVE to fall back to normal affordability based on wages. As they do, were are GUARANTEED to have TRILLIONS of dollars of upside mortgages. A large % of the extreme upside-down people will walk, even if they personally can afford the loan.Come on people. This should be no surprise. I layed this all out over a year ago, and things are progressing exactly as I said they would.It is about the WAGES! We can't afford houses at these prices, we can't afford our standard of living at these prices, and we can't afford our debt load."Already, U.S. consumer spending is slumping as homeowners find they can no longer take equity out of their homes to fund their lifestyles."That's right, and that SAME slump would be happening EVEN IF prices had only gone flat. People are living on the equity, and if prices stop going up, they have to stop living on the equity, and that is $1 trillion a year cut out of consumer spending.This negative equity problem is ONLY going to get worse as more and more markets "pop". On a national level, we're only half-way through the price corrections.

I can't stress enough the impact of 25 million illegals depressing wages domestically and the impact of NAFTA depressing wages through the pressure of exporting jobs.

[erac22 0]

fannie and freddie are *not* backed by the full faith and credit of the govt yet hence the spread over treas

A government bailout of the GSE's shows that the US govt will not let them default on their debt. As far as I can tell, the only way that freddie or fannie paper defaults is if the US govt defaults, in which case treasuries are worthless too. This is simply a bet that the US govt will not let Freddie and Fannie fail, which they have essentially committed to already. A default by freddie or fannie would essentially mean that the govt has run out of money to pay their obligations, in which case they have also run out of money to pay their own obligations, losing money on a trade will be the least of our problems. Also, since it's a pair trade, we don't need the paper to perform well, just better than treasuries. (by the way, Bill Gross is currently making this pair trade I believe).

[Yoda 1]

Interesting Chart

[WrongWay 0]

A government bailout of the GSE's shows that the US govt will not let them default on their debt.

All we've seen so far is the government is willing to throw $100 billion in loans at each. We have not seen the goverenment willing to eat $1 trillion - $2 trillion in losses from them.

[WrongWay 0]

Holy molly!!!!So, I was out of town for a couple days at an all hands where the sales and marketing people said that we're doing "okay", but they were surprised that healthcare software sales have not been as recession proof as we'd expected.I come home and my wife (who works in IT at a major hospital chain) says the managrs gathered up all the workers and said that revenue fell off a cliff since Oct 1. Revenue off plan by 3%. Lowering rate of paid time off accrual, eliminating ability to sell back excess PTO, lowering limit for max carry PTO, management will get no annual pay increases and workers should expect about 2% less than the company had been planning. The are cancelling software purchases, sloiwng the rate of go lives, reducing the staff going out on-site for go-lives, slowing hardware upgrade plans... Hiring freeze on all non-customer facing positions.AND, here is the kicker. They are building a new hospital. The building will be completed on schedule, but they are not going to buy any of the equipment or hire the people needed to open it, for AT LEAST a year.They said that they are hearing from their doctors in private practice that provide the bulk of the patients, than they are seeing it even worse. People are cancelling appointments. When they do come in, they are seeking the lowest cost treatments available. They are downgrading from high cost name brand to lower cost generics even of those drugs are less effective. They are putting off procedures. Etc.I knew it would be bad, bad, bad.... BUT I'm shocked healthcare is getting hit this quickly. If people are doing this to cut expenses, imagine how they are cutting back on eating out, buying fashion items, new cars, vacations, etc. etc. etc.Hotels here in PHX are offering off-season discounts, for prime season. Restaurants that used to always have a wait are now walk-right-in with half the tables empty. Retail sales that were slipping prior to Oct are now off the cliff.

[grocery_mony 8]

Holy molly!!!!So, I was out of town for a couple days at an all hands where the sales and marketing people said that we're doing "okay", but they were surprised that healthcare software sales have not been as recession proof as we'd expected.I come home and my wife (who works in IT at a major hospital chain) says the managrs gathered up all the workers and said that revenue fell off a cliff since Oct 1. Revenue off plan by 3%. Lowering rate of paid time off accrual, eliminating ability to sell back excess PTO, lowering limit for max carry PTO, management will get no annual pay increases and workers should expect about 2% less than the company had been planning. The are cancelling software purchases, sloiwng the rate of go lives, reducing the staff going out on-site for go-lives, slowing hardware upgrade plans... Hiring freeze on all non-customer facing positions.AND, here is the kicker. They are building a new hospital. The building will be completed on schedule, but they are not going to buy any of the equipment or hire the people needed to open it, for AT LEAST a year.They said that they are hearing from their doctors in private practice that provide the bulk of the patients, than they are seeing it even worse. People are cancelling appointments. When they do come in, they are seeking the lowest cost treatments available. They are downgrading from high cost name brand to lower cost generics even of those drugs are less effective. They are putting off procedures. Etc.I knew it would be bad, bad, bad.... BUT I'm shocked healthcare is getting hit this quickly. If people are doing this to cut expenses, imagine how they are cutting back on eating out, buying fashion items, new cars, vacations, etc. etc. etc.Hotels here in PHX are offering off-season discounts, for prime season. Restaurants that used to always have a wait are now walk-right-in with half the tables empty. Retail sales that were slipping prior to Oct are now off the cliff.

There will be big retail and restraunt chain failures no doubt. Followed by big cut in commercial real estate value. What pulls us out of the recession this time???? I dont see anything like the internet which pulled us out of the recession in the early 90's. Whoever wins next Tuesday will be destined to fail.

[mtdesmoines 3]

What pulls us out of the recession this time????

If we don't produce anything again in America, "recession" will become normality.

[Yoda 1]

Update..Pretty solid rallies last few days. I was leveraged up big at Down 8200 (scary, big gambool, but worked) and rode the long wave quite well. Even rode a couple successful short trades during the volatility (Thanks for lagging behind, Goldman; Got short that at 98).I have since taken some profits and de-levered, plus I am gonna leave on my Goldman short over the weekend as a hedge. Sold Mosaic for gain, traded around TGB, currently own some Chesapeake, Pfizer, financial ETF, oil services ETF, RIMM...I would think we have to give back some of the quick gains next week. I have cash ready if we take some big drops, but we often "panic up" as crazy as we panic down...so if that keeps happening, cool with me. I'm just happy to have traded back a lot of my Sept/Oct losses and be de-leveraged again.

[aucu 3]

This sums it up for me.

[aucu 3]

dp

[Yoda 1]

This sums it up for me.

lol not bad...that video can be used in so many ways it's ridiculous. I still haven't seen one top the full tilt version.