stock market thread

[Janfor99 0]

Wrongway your incessant harping about consumer debt is ridiculous....am I supposed to bail you out because you and every other irresponsible person ran up their credit cards and now don't want to pay the bill? Drives me crazy. Pay your own damn bills!My husband and I didn't buy a McMansion we knew wasn't worth 400 or 500k in any market, even though we could've afforded one. We bought a modest house far away from family and friends because of the stupidity of others, homes where we WANTED to live were WAY over priced and we refused to make that mistake..so we sacrificed!!! Imagine that...we DELAYED instant gratification!!! We've lived within our means!!!! We put some money aside for emergency!!!! And..ready for this concept...it's a difficult one to wrap your head around.... if we couldn't afford something we DID NOT BUY IT! (including VACATIONS, plasma screen TVs, and bright shiny new cars....I happily drive a truck with 225,000 miles on it).Are we the only people in America who do this? I think not.So....we pass a bill to save the economy...but I'll be good god damned if my tax money is supposed to pay YOUR credit card bill...No fn way!End Rant.And...woohoo my shares of BRK.B

[Painter567 0]

https://docs.retirementpartner.com/ioag/940689-01_IOAG.pdfOk, can some of you guys who are really up on this, look at this and tell me where I should have my 401k? Especially with all the shit going on right now...I won't say where it is now until I see a few responses. I do have it split over 2 areas now.Any input would be very insightful.Details....I am 34 years old.I put 7% in each week.Company match is 3%.

[nutzbuster 7]

https://docs.retirementpartner.com/ioag/940689-01_IOAG.pdfOk, can some of you guys who are really up on this, look at this and tell me where I should have my 401k? Especially with all the shit going on right now...I won't say where it is now until I see a few responses. I do have it split over 2 areas now.Any input would be very insightful.Details....I am 34 years old.I put 7% in each week.Company match is 3%.

Wow, my company has just switched to Great West. Not sure if you folks have the same funds available as mine.I had all of my mobnies in a fixed (stable value) account for almost 2 years and was going nowhere. Around July sometime I decided to talk to some folks and felt good about some advice and on my own decided to diversify it more.I'm down about 4% or so since the diversification, but whatever. Who isn't? Some have it much worse.I won't need this money for at least 15 years and like the diversification of it. I'll re-evaluate it about every 3 months and see if it still makes sense. You'll obviously have to decide what works for you.Here is a list of the Great West funds I eventually went to and the approx. percentage breakdowns:American Funds EuroPacific - 2.8%Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund - 6.25%Keeley Small Cap Value Fund - 3.3%Artisan Mid Cap Fund - 3.5%Hotchkis & Wiley Mid-Cap Value - 1.8%Davis New York Venture A - 16.5%Fidelity Contrafund - 22%T. Rowe Price Retirement 2010 Fund - 10%PIMCO Total Return Fund - 17%Stable (fixed money market basically) Value Fund - 18%I also have a few rainy day funds in CD's (yuk returns) and a have been maxing a Roth for about 3 years now that I use to buy and sell stocks using Scottrade.Happy hunting.

[Painter567 0]

Wow, my company has just switched to Great West. Not sure if you folks have the same funds available as mine.I had all of my mobnies in a fixed (stable value) account for almost 2 years and was going nowhere. Around July sometime I decided to talk to some folks and felt good about some advice and on my own decided to diversify it more.I'm down about 4% or so since the diversification, but whatever. Who isn't? Some have it much worse.I won't need this money for at least 15 years and like the diversification of it. I'll re-evaluate it about every 3 months and see if it still makes sense. You'll obviously have to decide what works for you.Here is a list of the Great West funds I eventually went to and the approx. percentage breakdowns:American Funds EuroPacific - 2.8%Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund - 6.25%Keeley Small Cap Value Fund - 3.3%Artisan Mid Cap Fund - 3.5%Hotchkis & Wiley Mid-Cap Value - 1.8%Davis New York Venture A - 16.5%Fidelity Contrafund - 22%T. Rowe Price Retirement 2010 Fund - 10%PIMCO Total Return Fund - 17%Stable (fixed money market basically) Value Fund - 18%I also have a few rainy day funds in CD's (yuk returns) and a have been maxing a Roth for about 3 years now that I use to buy and sell stocks using Scottrade.Happy hunting.

Thanks nutz.....I'll definitely look into it.Anyone else is appreciated.

[Painter567 0]

Normal posters in this thread having heart attacks or something?

[leftygolfer 7]

https://docs.retirementpartner.com/ioag/940689-01_IOAG.pdfOk, can some of you guys who are really up on this, look at this and tell me where I should have my 401k? Especially with all the shit going on right now...I won't say where it is now until I see a few responses. I do have it split over 2 areas now.Any input would be very insightful.Details....I am 34 years old.I put 7% in each week.Company match is 3%.

First, continue to max out on your contributions as much as fiscally possible.Second don't invest in bond funds.My reco is 50/50 Aggressive Profile and Moderately Aggressive Profile.You have 30+ years to retirement so you can handle the ups and down. I don't like investing in indivdual funds unless you want to monitor them yourself.

[Painter567 0]

First, continue to max out on your contributions as much as fiscally possible.Second don't invest in bond funds.My reco is 50/50 Aggressive Profile and Moderately Aggressive Profile.You have 30+ years to retirement so you can handle the ups and down. I don't like investing in indivdual funds unless you want to monitor them yourself.

Ok thanks...I currently have 70% in Moderately Aggressive and 30% in Moderate. Considering moving it and diversifying a bit more.

[WrongWay 0]

Wrongway your incessant harping about consumer debt is ridiculous....am I supposed to bail you out because you and every other irresponsible person ran up their credit cards and now don't want to pay the bill? Drives me crazy. Pay your own damn bills!

My incessant harping is not becuase I'm in horrid debt. My household total debt is only 2x household income. We make $140K a year, owe $180K on the house (15 year and 4.75%), $60K on student loans (that are from my wfie's BS and MS that resutled in a $20K a year raise for her), and about $40K other debt. (all at 3-4% or less).I harp on the debt, because that is the reason our economy is doomed. For a decade, wages have not kept up with inflation, and we maintained our standard of living by borrowing the difference. For much of the last decade we've been borrowing well over $1 trillion a year in consumer and business debt.Over the last 15 years:Medain income up 20%CPI up 50%Per household debt up 180%non-financial business debt up from $3 trillion to $11 trillion.Total consumer and business debt (exclusing finacial sector) up from a combined $7 trillion to $25 trillion.Just to stop getting further into debt woudl result in a recesion that would dwarf anything we've had since the great depression. Now add $10 trillion in debt defaults resulting in $5 trillion in real losses...."My husband and I didn't buy a McMansion we knew wasn't worth 400 or 500k in any market,"Nor did my wife and I. We live in a modest 1800 sqft, 30-year old house. We drive vehicles that we picked up used. We shop discount stores, not high end."Are we the only people in America who do this? I think not."But it only takes half of the people acting stupidly to take down the entire economy. As you said, you saw many, many others behaving very badly.Perhaps you missed the point of my bailout suggestion. (There has to be some kind of bailout, or we have a Depression that makes the Great Depression look mild).Most are suggesting we do the rescue based on need. If you overpaid for your house and got a bad loan, many suggest we lower what you owe and then give you a crazy low rate, so that you can afford the house that you really can't afford. This is rewarding the most stupid, in direct proportion to how stupid they were. SCREW THAT!My proposal is focused not on how stupid you were, but on your income. The poorest will need the most help. Therefore, I start at teh bottom and dole out as close to a year's income as I can get. My original proposal was to hand out a year's income, upto the national median of $50K. However, that blew the budget. So, I've had to refocus this down to $40K max payout. I then reduce this from there if you make more, as you should be able to handle the higher debt load with the higher income."So....we pass a bill to save the economy...but I'll be good god damned if my tax money is supposed to pay YOUR credit card bill...No fn way!End Rant.And...woohoo my shares of BRK.B "Technically, it is not your tax dollars. We would just print the money out of thin air, and trigger hyper-inflation. If we don't get hyper-inflation, then we will get depression. Trillion in bad debt are going to "just go away". As that money goes away, it must be pumped back into the system to avoid depression. The only question is, as we print the money out of thin air to replace what is going away, whom do we give it to? Do we give it to billionaires, to ensure they remain billionaires? Or do we give it to the citizens. More rich-get-richer, poor-get-poorer as we've had for the last 30 years, or do we turn the tables and start handing money to the poor to make them slightly less in debt while letting inflation eat away at the purchasing power of the mega rich?I vote we start moving some of the money back down to the poor before they riot and start chopping off heads.

[WrongWay 0]

"Ok thanks...I currently have 70% in Moderately Aggressive and 30% in Moderate. Considering moving it and diversifying a bit more. "The 401K doesn't offer a 100% government or 100% treasuries option? Wow, that sucks!If you diversifying into public sector, that is not diversification at all.... it is picking your poison.

[gobears 0]

Into the abyss we go.....Bought some Weatherford here (WFT)

[nutzbuster 7]

fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggjust wow. So much panic.For all this selling, I gotta ask....Who is buying everything they are selling?

[mtdesmoines 3]

For all this selling, I gotta ask...Who is buying everything they are selling?

People who like clearance sales.EDIT: I have to add too, there isn't one person on this forum that I'm aware of who should be panicked right now ... you're all too young to worry about this. The point is that moving money and selling off is only going to lock in a loss. I don't remember the exact stat AT ALL, so I'm talking out of my ass some here, but here's the spirit of it: if people had just stuck with the market with a reasonably diversified portfolio from 1928 to 1938, they would have averaged a 15% return on investment (or something like that) even through the crash of 1929. But they had to stay in it.

[Janfor99 0]

I have $30K... All of it at 5% or 6%. On top of $188K on the house, and $60K in student loans.I got divorced twice in 5 years.... One included $15K in legal fees and 5 years of alimony at $10K a year (last payment was Feb 2007) on top of $12K child support (2 years to go). The other was a short rebound marriage that only cost me $2K to get into and another $2K to get out of. While paying the alimony I added about $3K a year in debt.My 3rd wife (as of last July) also had a divorce. The house is hers from pre-marriage, but so is the debt we recently rolled into the house (medical bills and a custody battle with her ex.) and the student loans.Our combined income is $130K. Our total debt is under $300K. Right at the 3x that is the traditionl recommendation, but our rates are awesome! Still, that $30K in credit card is one HECK of a monthly burden[/b], [/b]even at the 5% and 6% rates. I can't imagine how people making half as much live with similar or higher balalnces at higher rates. I t doesn't make sense to bail out people like me that messed up and got into too much debt, at the expense of the people that were smart, spent less than they earn, and have money in the bank earling a rate of return way under the rate of inflation.The nation relaxed the lending rules and allowed the citizenry to take on too much debt. The country looked the other way as it was happening. There are now two choices.... print money and get hyper-inflation or don't and get Great Depression.I like the "print the money" route myself. But, so we distribute it through clean up after instutions have gone the way of Bear Stearns? Personally, I would like to distribute it to the front end to pay down the debts before default. But, how do we divide it up? Do the people that were the dumbest get the money? The people that were the smartest? Or, do we (probably wrongfully) accept that your wage is some measure of your usefullness to society and divide the monopoly money up that way?....

House price crash continues at record pace. My house is off $6K (2.8%) in the last 30 days. Down a bit ovr 26% in the last 18 months. About half-way done with Phoenix are price drops. New defaults have gone flat at 6,000,about 3x normal. 8x the lows of the recent boom. Foreclosures still climbing at over 2000 a month. They should hit 3000 a month within a few months. Already 100x where they were during the boom......

Americans have far too much debt, and little to no reson to bother paying it off. $ trillions in defaults coming.....Yes, we need to drop money from helicopters, but we need to drop it to lenders in the name of borrowers to actually reduce the debt. We can't just keep cleaning up the mess after the defaults have happened.$2 trillion handout, 100% of your 2007 1040 reported income, upto the national medain income of $50K, then you lose $.05-$.10 for each $ you earn above median. If you have debt, the money goes to your debtors in your name to pay down what you owe. Restore some resemblance of solvancy to the population......

Is today one of those big up days that I'm not supposed to miss?Oh how I wish I woned stock right now.....How would we pay down the debt? Proportionte to your total debt. So, for me, with $180K in mortgage debt, $60K in student loans, and $30K in credit card, auto, signature, etc. Okay. My wife and I had $140K 1040 reported income last year. The formula is, we pay out = to income, upto national medain household income of $50K. Then lose 5-10% for maoney above that. So, we have $90K above median, and go with 10% redction, that is $9K off the $50K. So, my wife and I would get only $41K. Or, if they had to go $.20 off per $ above medain to hit the $2 trillion, then we'd only get $38K. Whatever the number has to be to hit the target nationalization rate.As for how it is handed out.$180K/$270K = 66.66% of debt x $41K = $27.33 K handed to my mortgage company.$60K/$270K = 22.22% x$41k = $9.11K handed to my wife's student loans.$30K/$270K = 11.11% x$41K = $4.55K divided up among my other debts, proportionatly.Doesn't this harm the solvant? Solvant what? Assumes there are some solvant.........How to pay for it?50% cut to the U.S. Navy budget. 50% cut to homeland defense. Roll back Bush spending increases in education (administering the stupid no-child-left-behind testing). Roll back agriculture subsidies to the tune of tens of billions. Tort reform on liability claims (2/3rds of jury 2/3rds convinced instead of 51% of jury 51% convinced) to slice 20% off the cost of healthcare and trim hundreds of billions out of the Medicare/Medicaide, VA and state health programs. Also slices a HUGE chunk from business's expenses.Lift the cap on Social Secuirty contributions while lowering the cap on payments. Eventually just roll Social Security tax into income tax and get rid of the myth that it is a pay-on-get-back system. It hasn't been that since 1939.Raise the capital gains tax back to match income tax rates.Look, we're going to spend the money one way or the other. Either we spend the money to clean up after the bankruptcies. Or we spend themoneyup-front in hopes of avoding the bankruptcies.

Nice mythology, but totally wrong.Las Vegas Case-Shiller in 2001: 105. Income growth supports abotu 115. Today: 158. Another 27% to fall.San Diego 2001: 117. Income growth supports about 130. Today: 175. 26% more to fallReno is not in the Case-Shiller, but a couple months back my daughter that lives there was looking to buy. I pulled the sales history of places she was looking at and showed here they are still 20+% too expensive.My house in PHX is off better than 30% in the last 2 years. Only 20% more to get to a support level. Yeah, we may be closer to the 9th than the first in residential. Call it the 5th inning......

I am right by the way. 125% increase in household debt, and 20% increase in income to pay for it. The house of cards, debt -based economy we've had is coming to an end and it will be painful.I certainly don't fell like I'm to blame in any way. Just the messenger. What do I hope to get out of it? Well, I'm already up about 40% above where I would have been had I stayed in stocks. What can we do to get out of it? I've presented that many times, and each time I'm told I'm a total nut job.We bring back the post-depression regulations like max interest rates, wall of separation between banks and brokers, and no -interstate banks. LOTS of small institutions, each small enough to fail, instead of few huge giants that MUST be bailed out becuase they are too big. We bring back the old bankrupcty laws, the old regulations on securitizations, etc. We simply desconstruct the debt engine that is blowing all these bubbles we've had over the last 30 years.We then nationalize about $2 trillion of the excess consumer debt through the stimuslus plan x15-20, but if you have debt, the money goes to your debt holders instead of you.We then raise taxes and institute massive spending cuts. A few areas I'd raise taxes is capital gains and lifting the Social Security cap. Cuts would be to the U.S. Navy, to agriculture, to medicare and medicaide through tort reform, lowering the cap on social security benefits, etc. Real, painful cuts and real painful tax increases, but needed to bring the budget back to some form of balance.

You have got to be kidding me. .....An RTC style bailout? Banks sell their bad debt to the government at whatever they need to stay in business, then the government sells it off at a massive loss... gosting the tax payer trillions... Meanwhile, the tax payers remain trapped under a crushing debt load, and banks go right about their business of making that crushing debt load even larger????**** THAT!!!!!!If anyone is getting a bailout, it better be the CITIZENS, bailed out from under their crushing debt load. NO F'N way does Wall Street get bailed out without it getting passed along to us tax payers!!!!Get the torches and pitchforks, I'm heading for D.C.!!!!

No. I do not. I do not have time to worry about silly conspiracy theories.The Fed is preparing to hand trillions of tax payer dollars to the most stupid, greed, dispicable idiots on the planet. I have bigger things to worry about than silly conspiracy theories.RTC in the 80s was $75 billion.NOTHING!!!!!The Fed handed out $172 billion JUST YEASTERDAY!!!!This plan they are talking about will cost TRILLIONS!!!!Yes, this is a multi-trilion dollar problem, as I've been saying for years... as people called me a Chicken Little, a Bear****er, a moron, a nut... you name it.But, this is 100% the WRONG WAY to go about cleaning up this mess. It reward the most idiotic people by bailing them out, at teh expense of the people that were the least stupid. It maintains the debt machine that brought us these probelms, and simply guarantees we'll get more of the same.The problem is too much consumer debt. The solution is dismanteling the debt machine and nationalizing a arge portion of hte debt. This proposal is to let the debt go bad, then nationalize it, and then let Wall Street go on creating more debt that can never be paid back without another, even large government bailout in the future.... this is 100% the WRONG thing to do. This does not serve the interest of the citizens. It serves the interest of the select few billionaires that will get to keep all the money they stole, and go right on stealing more!I hate Washington, Wall Street, and our totally corrupt economic system. I'd rather have a depression and start over, then see these power-elite billionaires get to continue to rape us citizens while the government holds us down and sprinkles the salt into the wounds.

[/b]

I can tell you what the root of the problem is. For the last decade, incomes have not kept up with inflation, yet lifestyles have increased. We've funded our lifestyles though debt. Consumer debt is almost tripple what it was just 15 years ago, and business debt is a bit over tripple what it was. With wages up only 20%.So Mr. Paulson.... Yes, your shininangins will go a long way to ensuring the elite Wall Street billionaires remain billionaires. But, what has it done to increase the wages of the American people? What has it done to remove the crushing debt burden they find themselves under? Or... did something you do somehow make it possible for them to spend 10% more than they earn, FOREVER?Aim at the root of the problem my as s. Aim at keeping the mega rich, mega rich!F u c k the mega rich and their bought and paid for politicians!

Sure seems to me like you are bitter you overpaid for a house in a bubble and want to Government to pay off your credit card debt and yes at the expense of the tax payers. You said you'd rather we have a DEPRESSION!!!! Nice.I don't know the right answer but I don't want your credit card debt paid by your proposed TAX INCREASES to my tax bill.And no, I'm not for cutting funding to the Navy.

[dms26 3]

People who like clearance sales.EDIT: I have to add too, there isn't one person on this forum that I'm aware of who should be panicked right now ... you're all too young to worry about this. The point is that moving money and selling off is only going to lock in a loss. I don't remember the exact stat AT ALL, so I'm talking out of my ass some here, but here's the spirit of it: if people had just stuck with the market with a reasonably diversified portfolio from 1928 to 1938, they would have averaged a 15% return on investment (or something like that) even through the crash of 1929. But they had to stay in it.

QFT, some of these stock prices are just stupid. Wish I had more money to invest.

[El Guapo 8]

That was an interesting hour.

[dms26 3]

That was an interesting hour.

Margin calls have to done by 2pm right? Seems like now people are picking up the roadkill afterwards.

[WrongWay 0]

Sure seems to me like you are bitter you overpaid for a house in a bubble and want to Government to pay off your credit card debt and yes at the expense of the tax payers.

Then despite quoting a lot of my posts, you are not paying attention. I didn't buy at the peak. My wife bought 2 years before her and I met for $130K before the bubble. Over the next 3 years it more than doubled in price to $270K. I tied to sell the house for $250K 18 months ago as the market was just breaking here, but no go. I wanted to drop the price to $220K, but wife would have none of it.Last Feb we did a cash-out refi because it is not very often you can lock in a loan for 4.75% when inflation is above 6%. The debt rolled in was refi fees, plus $10K in legal battle with her ex and $35K in medical bills that were not reimbursed by insurance. To lock that stuff in at 4.75% for 15 years was a very smart move on my part.Also, if you'd been paying attention, you'd no I've revized the bailout plan. The original proposal had a pricetag in excess of $6 trillion. That is too expensive. So, I've dialed it down to $40K max pay out, and a loss of 20% for each $ over that. So, my protion of the debt nationalization is $40K - .2 ($140K - $40K ) = $20K.And, am I just looking for the government to buy down my debt? No. I'm looking for away to attack the root problem in the economy, wages not keeping up with inflation and people using debt to maintain the lifestyle, resulting in a crushing debt load. Median household income up 20%, prices up 50%, debt up 180%.Households with debt typically had about 3x income in debt. Now it is above 5. I'm trying to bring that back down.

You said you'd rather we have a DEPRESSION!!!! Nice.

You can't leave out the "than" or it looses all meaning.I'd ratehr have a knee to the nuts that a gun shot to the heart... It does not mean I want a knee to the groin.My comment was in regards to a comment that just teh most stupid, the most in need of a bailout becuase they were the most foolish, should get bailed out. Anyone that was smart and does nto need help should get nothing.BS! If we are going to do a bailout, it SHOULD NOT BE BASED ON HOW STUPID YOU WERE.I'd rather have a depression, THAN have the billionaires bailed out so they can keep raping the "working class" with the help of government. I stand by that. A bailout based on your stupidity level is the WORST possible (but unfortunatly, most likely) outcome of all this.

I don't know the right answer but I don't want your credit card debt paid by your proposed TAX INCREASES to my tax bill.And no, I'm not for cutting funding to the Navy.

Better to have just the really stupid peoples' bills paid at your expense then?Look, here is the hard truth. If we don't print tons of money out of thin air, then we are going to have a depression. Do you want a depression? I do not. If we decide we are going to print the money out of thin air, then should it go to: a) the billionaires so they can buy up everythign after prices hit bottom, B) people that were the most stupid so that they can keep houses that they had no income to purchase in the first place, c) Everyone, in proportion to their income?My preferences are, it order of preference:1) Give the money to people based on their incomes.2) Depression3) Hand the money out to only the very stupid people so they can keep all the stuff they "bought" but could not pay for.4) Hand the monty to billionaires.And yes, my preferred answer is that this disaster had never happened, but I don't have a functioning time machine, and even if I did I could probably not stop this anyway.As for not cutting the Navy, then what are your suggestions for chopping $500 billion from the federal budget. It is SUPER easy to name things you do NOT want to cut. But what WOULD you cut instead?

[WrongWay 0]

QFT, some of these stock prices are just stupid. Wish I had more money to invest.

We have not yet BEGUN to deal with the economy's real issues. We're SOOOOOO far from bottom it is just stupid to think of buying stocks at this time.

[mtdesmoines 3]

We have not yet BEGUN to deal with the economy's real issues. We're SOOOOOO far from bottom it is just stupid to think of buying stocks at this time.

You mean we produce nothing, buy everything, and brought in illegal cheap labor to service our needs and bankrolled it all by gobbling up the productivity of 3 generations before AND after us? Is that the real issue?

[WrongWay 0]

You mean we produce nothing, buy everything, and brought in illegal cheap labor to service our needs and bankrolled it all by gobbling up the productivity of 3 generations before AND after us? Is that the real issue?

I prefer to avoid making judgements and making it all emotive like that..... ;)I try to just stick to the data. Over the past 15 years:20% increase in median income.50% increase in CPI.180% increase in per household consumer debt.266% increase in business debt.Wages have not kept up with inflation, but we maintained out standard of living by borrowing the difference. Now, the econmy is crumbling, not because of Wall Street issues. Wall Street's issues are secondary. Main Street is trapped between low wages, high prices and crushing debt load. They are defaulting on debt in huge numbers, which is the source of Wall Street's problems.We can not fix the problme of too much debt, with more debt. We can't fix this problem by attacking it as a Wall Street problem.Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression. He is convinced that they depression was caused by loss of liquididty, triggering bank failures, triggering loss of liquidity, triggering bank failures.... If we can just keep the debt marekts liquid....That maybe the cause of the Great Depression, but I can tell you it is not the cuase of our current problems. The real economy started to crack while there were still great big, ginormous oceans of liquidity sloshing around the globe.The source of our current economic problems is that American consumers have been spending 110% of their income, and that has burried them under a massive debt load, preventing them from continuing to spend 110% of their income. There will be a horrid, ugly recession as spending falls to the levels of incomes, and without some type of Main Street focused bailout, there will be $ trillions in losses from $ ten trillion in defaults.No $700 billion ever printed out of thin air could begin to fix this $5 trillion disaster.

[Janfor99 0]

Wrongway, despite reading my posts "you are not paying attention" and "look here's the hard truth" .... I do not want to bail out people's consumer debt. Whether you've adjusted your math or not....my point is I do not want to bail out people's consumer debt. We may end up working out millions of mortgages with "principle reductions" (which also irritates me) but I do not want to pay for some greedy Main streeters plasma screen tv, home theatre, new boat, new ski mobile, new jet ski, new time share....you get the picture...Dont you.As for whether the 700b bailout just passed will be a disaster or will make money in the long run, it's too soon to say.

[WrongWay 0]

Wrongway, despite reading my posts "you are not paying attention" and "look here's the hard truth" .... I do not want to bail out people's consumer debt. Whether you've adjusted your math or not....my point is I do not want to bail out people's consumer debt.

Nor do I. But the only alternative I see is depression. So, bailout excess consumer debt or depression... You make the call!If not my plan, then what do you propose? It is easy to say what you do not want. Harder to come up with a proposed solution.

We may end up working out millions of mortgages with "principle reductions" (which also irritates me) but I do not want to pay for some greedy Main streeters plasma screen tv, home theatre, new boat, new ski mobile, new jet ski, new time share....you get the picture...Dont you.

To me, a principal reduction is FAR, far worse than what I'm proposing.Under my plan, you get cash based on your income, not on how stupid you were. I'm compensating for lost purchasing power that will accompany the prinitng of money out of thin air that will be required to avoid depression, based on your income not on your stupidity.Principal reduction is giving the biggest rewards to the most stupid people. The more you overpaid for your house, the more debt we forgive???? I don't think so.The amount of debt we forgive HAS to be based on something other than rewarding the most stupidity.You said you bought a smaller house away from the high costs areas... right? So, let's say you spent $200K on you small, long-drive house.Now let's say a moron you know paid $500K for a huge house in a better area, but they can only afford a $200K house. So, we lower their principal to $200K so they owe just as much on their house as you do?How is that better than handing each of your lenders $20K to pay down your mortgages?

As for whether the 700b bailout just passed will be a disaster or will make money in the long run, it's too soon to say.

It can be profitable, ONLY if house prices stabalize, then start back up. That won't happen. House prices will keep falling for the same reasin they started falling. Wages do not make the houses affordable at current price levels.There is NO WAY this won't be a mega loss for the government.....Unless they do a bailout like I've proposed, in which case, the government is buying down the debt it holds, bringing back up tha value of the MBSs as it buys down the debt contained within them.

[WrongWay 0]

Wall Street just doesn't get it.... do they? And these are the as sholes telling the politicians what to do about this disaster??? Mohamad Al Arian is on CNBC this morning describing all the conditions that are necessary and sufficient to halt the collapse. We need to have the government buy up MBS at above market price (eat other peoples' losses), we need the government to buy CP (loan money regardless of peoples' ability to repay the debt), we need to get payment system flowing again (get peope to stop defaulting), blah, blah, blah.Then the conversation goes to housing. We absolutley need to get mortgage lending started up again to get house prices to stop falling.ARG!!!!!! They so don't get it.If you are a qualified buyer, YOU CAN GET A LOAN. The only people we have stopped lending to are the people with a proven track record of not paying their debts, people that are already upto there eyeballs in debt, people that don't have enough documentable income to be able to repay the loans,people that can't scrape up a stinking 3% downpayment.You can't stop the slide in house prices because:1) Wages are too low to support prices at this level. There are not enough people that can afford allthe houses.2) In most markets, builders are able to profitably build and sell into the market, undersutting the existing sellers.It is a supply/demand imbalance. Too much supply, that will keep growing until prices fall a lot further. Not enough demand because prices are unaffordable.All the conditions that started prices falling, are still there, and will ensure house prices keep falling.Put, really, this is now all secondary. The problem with house prices falling for the overall economy is that house prices are no longer rising.As wages increased more slowly than inflation, rising house prices became the source of cash people needed to keep their standard of living. Prices just going flat at this point (which is not going to happen as I explained above), is sufficient to force a 10% cut in consumer spending which will put us into the worst recession since the depression.What is necessary and sufficient to stop the crash, in my opinion? 1) Find a way for way repeal the suppy/demand mechanism by which markets set prices.... 2) Find a way for people to continue to spend 10% more than they make, forever, which ever having to actually pay on all the debt they are adding.Or, maybe we can just accept that this is not a Wall Street problem. We can't fix this problem unless webegin to attack it as a Main Street problem.

[gobears 0]

Into the abyss we go.....Bought some Weatherford here (WFT)

And sold it this morning - guess I'll just become a day trader with some of these positions.

[mk 11]

so let's review recent news; stocks 'officially' are bearish, it's mid july but NOW analysts tell us that financials may have more writedowns and need more cash, poole says normal accounting would make freddie and fannie insolvent while wsj reports the u.s. is mulling what to do if they falter (read: fail), foreclosures were up 51% in june, and lest we think it's only finance and housing feeling the pressure starbucks and nw air have announced big layoffs and cisco's ceo puts off recovery until 2009 (vs. by the end of this year as he expected in may).obviously none of this is encouraging for stocks across the board. and while all of us focus on the us be cognizant that the economies overseas are feeling their own jitters -- housing in the UK, and narrower trade balance in germany, weaker ip in france and italy, for example -- making further rate hikes overseas all the more problematic. assuming there are hikes as inflation hawks win the day's argument, then it's the real economy and stocks that will feel the pain as much, if not more, than the interest rate structure. i'm not saying don't buy stocks at all in here -- sometimes being a ballsy contrarian will pay you -- but i would be really really careful with any longs. trade with tight stops on the downside and if you're fortunate enough to catch a short cover rally don't get too greedy on the upside. if one of the big banks blows up again like bear all hell is gonna break loose so hold on to your butts.

js