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You see, I for one appreciate your rational thinking/teaching on some aspects of the Home Financing fiasco; but then you also seem to be full of this sorta chatter.
I think there are times to be in the market..... Like when it is going up. When the market is going up, the insiders can work together to inflate everyone's profits. Then there are times like now, when markets are going down. It is a good time to be out. Even if you think you are using logic to pick good safe sectors that fit conditions, the insiders are eating each other. It is too easy to be caught between them and eaten.Again... Over the long-term I am a big believer in stock based mutual funds. But last July the Credit Crunch was becoming to big, so I got the F out and went 100% treasuries. I did well. Now I am 50% cash, 25% Europac as currency hedge against falling dollar, and 25% treasuries. It is just safer.Once the markets calm, I will be right back into stocks.Again, I didn't say don't play on the Stock Market. I said, if you are going to, youhave to realize it is a rigged game. There are times to play and times not to.Oh, and I need to save more as well.
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Yesterday I was scratching my head trying to figure out wat the heck was going on..... Dollar up, comodities down, stocks down... Heard something today that made it all make sense.The Fed had been shoving money at banks through cash injections and the TAF hoping it would go to the brokerages that had all these bad MBS on thier books. But the banks didn't want to lend to people holding MBS for fear of not getting the money back. Instead, the money was going to people that had been buying commodities, socks, and lending it overseas. They had just been rollingover those loans.Well, after the Fed opened the discount window to the brokerages, it started letting some of those loans to banks expire. It sucked the money back out of the system, meaning it had to come out of comodities, stocks, and foreign investments.And the light comes on.It really was just bad timing for Yoda to buy MON and TGB as the air came out of the comodities. They were risky plays.... WAYriskier than I am willing to get near. Still, I didn't see the significance of opening the discount window to brokerages. I can understandhowhe missed it too.

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hello, haven't posted in a while.Some quick analysis:Since August, the market has rallied on fed action and little else. With the fed probably sitting on its hands for at least the next 2 weeks (unless another shoe drops, which wouldn't help markets either), the S&P will almost certainly test its 1275-ish lows hit back in january and after the Bear Stearns news. If we bounce again off that low we will have a triple bottom, which would indiciate to me that we will probably continue to be range bound until a catalyst either way. A drop below that level, IMO, could trigger an assload of stop limit orders and traders, especially the big money hedge funds which often trade on technical, will all be dumping equities on the support break. I think a simple break of this support level could trigger the washout that the bears have been alluding to for some time now.I continue to be bearish and expect the breakout down to occur before a breakout up. These credit problems won't go away, brokers still have lots on their balance sheets that they wish they didn't, the write downs are almost certainly not over, banks that haven't marked their assets to market could be in for a real shallacking. Not to mention we're entering a recession where aggregate demand is dropping yet prices are remaining high, and the 2 main sources of consumer equity, stocks and housing, are no longer providing cashflow. As for trades, I've been looking at the ultra short inverse etf's, like skf, sds, srs. They all trade pretty similarly and have all been pretty range bound inverse of the S&P. I'll be holding them until S&P gets to around 1275, then i'll get out and see whether we break support or not.I would also keep an eye on GLD. It was time for a correction but I doubt the trend is over. A lot of the selling was due to margin calls, and this is most likely healthy. Fortunately i had trimmed my gold holdings at around 975, missed the run to 1040, but also missed the fall.

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Weeee fun time for commodities correction. I time goot. Fortunately this isn't a 1 week game. Had to bite the bullet and buy more Monsanto obv...worst case I lose my previous gains, since I started in on this stock 30 points ago. But the long term Ag story is here to stay so I see no reason to run away now.

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Weeee fun time for commodities correction. I time goot. Fortunately this isn't a 1 week game. Had to bite the bullet and buy more Monsanto obv...worst case I lose my previous gains, since I started in on this stock 30 points ago. But the long term Ag story is here to stay so I see no reason to run away now.
YOU'RE GOING TO RUIN YOUR LIFE!!!
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YOU'RE GOING TO RUIN YOUR LIFE!!!
haha - get busy living, or get busy dying! THAT one I actually timed fucking PERFECT. It just came roarrrring back 7 points and still pushing forward. I feel a little better now...i was pretty pissed at the open!
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Financials and Housing leading the way...
Isn't this rally, led by financials, confirmation that this market is in a lot of trouble? We get Philly fed news that is bad but not quite as bad as expected, and the market goes up due to lousy news by any standards. I think this is a clear sign that there is way too much optimism in the stock market and a lot of buyers/holders still to be flushed out.
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Isn't this rally, led by financials, confirmation that this market is in a lot of trouble? We get Philly fed news that is bad but not quite as bad as expected, and the market goes up due to lousy news by any standards. I think this is a clear sign that there is way too much optimism in the stock market and a lot of buyers/holders still to be flushed out.
You got me - I'm through trying to guess the direction of this crazy market :club: Everybody is just really relieved that Goldman Lehman and Morgan didn't shit the shower.Everybody already knows the numbers/data/indicators are gonna be bad, that doesn't surprise anybody anymore.
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You got me - I'm through trying to guess the direction of this crazy market :club: Everybody is just really relieved that Goldman Lehman and Morgan didn't shit the shower.Everybody already knows the numbers/data/indicators are gonna be bad, that doesn't surprise anybody anymore.
Goldman, Lehman, and Morgan are all faggots? Wow I never knew.
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Personllay, I think we will be range bound again for the next few months led by financial and housing but cancelled against falling commodities and related stocks. In short, the opposite of what we have seen the last 4 months or so.What the Fed did will allow the financial companies to close 1Q books. With OFHEO changes and higher limits on conforming and FHA and lower mortgage rates, there will be hope housing is bottoming. With stimulus checks hitting the streets in 2Q, there will be hope the recession will be avoided.Commodities will continue to correct down now that excess liquidity is being pulled from banks and given directly to the brokerages. Denial, Bargining, Anger, Despair, Acceptance.... It is not a wattefall. It is iterative. It is a cycle that is repeated many time.Many are still in denial. I still hear people saying loss in housing pirces won't be more than 10%-15% nationally. I hear that losses to lenders won't be more than $250 billion. Yeah, RIGHT!!!! DENIAL!!!!!There is too much bargaining. If we could just get house prices to stabalize.... If we bulldoze houses, if we offer tax credits to buyers, if we lower rates a bit more, if we just contact people, if we freeze foreclosures, if we can do a work-out, if we can make banks drop the principal... Sorry, but this is econ 101. Loose lending and speculaticve frenzy caused demand to increase. Will, loose lending is gone and specualtive frenzy has turned to dust. We ARE correcting to historic norm affordability and that means a 40% drop in house prices. CAN'T stop it. There WILL be trillions lost as millions walk from loans they are $100K or more upside-down on.Consumers WERE spending 10% more than they earned, largly through cash out of the housing market. $600 billion was being added to the ecoomy each year. The stimulus is nothing compared to that. Consumers HAVE to cut back spending and that WILL trigger a recession.Between job losses from housing, job losses from financial, and job losses due to reduced consumer spending, the recession is going to be long and ugly.We will probably be okay for 1-2 months, then the SHTF again.At least, that is my guess as of 11AM AZ time on 3/20/08.... Subject to complete downward revision if some more, unexpected bad news hits.

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Personllay, I think we will be range bound again for the next few months led by financial and housing but cancelled against falling commodities and related stocks. In short, the opposite of what we have seen the last 4 months or so.What the Fed did will allow the financial companies to close 1Q books. With OFHEO changes and higher limits on conforming and FHA and lower mortgage rates, there will be hope housing is bottoming. With stimulus checks hitting the streets in 2Q, there will be hope the recession will be avoided.Commodities will continue to correct down now that excess liquidity is being pulled from banks and given directly to the brokerages. Denial, Bargining, Anger, Despair, Acceptance.... It is not a wattefall. It is iterative. It is a cycle that is repeated many time.Many are still in denial. I still hear people saying loss in housing pirces won't be more than 10%-15% nationally. I hear that losses to lenders won't be more than $250 billion. Yeah, RIGHT!!!! DENIAL!!!!!There is too much bargaining. If we could just get house prices to stabalize.... If we bulldoze houses, if we offer tax credits to buyers, if we lower rates a bit more, if we just contact people, if we freeze foreclosures, if we can do a work-out, if we can make banks drop the principal... Sorry, but this is econ 101. Loose lending and speculaticve frenzy caused demand to increase. Will, loose lending is gone and specualtive frenzy has turned to dust. We ARE correcting to historic norm affordability and that means a 40% drop in house prices. CAN'T stop it. There WILL be trillions lost as millions walk from loans they are $100K or more upside-down on.Consumers WERE spending 10% more than they earned, largly through cash out of the housing market. $600 billion was being added to the ecoomy each year. The stimulus is nothing compared to that. Consumers HAVE to cut back spending and that WILL trigger a recession.Between job losses from housing, job losses from financial, and job losses due to reduced consumer spending, the recession is going to be long and ugly.We will probably be okay for 1-2 months, then the SHTF again.At least, that is my guess as of 11AM AZ time on 3/20/08.... Subject to complete downward revision if some more, unexpected bad news hits.
You are assuming millions walk away when they have to pay rent somewhere anyway. People get attached to where they live,it's not as cut and dry as you think.
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You are assuming millions walk away when they have to pay rent somewhere anyway. People get attached to where they live,it's not as cut and dry as you think.
I don't think people get that attached to a $300k house that they owe a $400k mortgage on, especially if they only bought it in the past few years...
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You are assuming millions walk away when they have to pay rent somewhere anyway. People get attached to where they live,it's not as cut and dry as you think.
On my street there are people that paid $270K for a house that can easily be rented for $1300 a month. Their payments HAVE to be $2K a month, and they are on the hook for maintenance and repairs. A lot of people won't be able to afford the houses. Many that can will choose not to once they find themselves $100K or more upside down on a house that they are paying A LOT more to own then it would cost them to rent.BUT... even if they keep paying on the house, they will have to cut back on spending. We have been pulling $600 billion a year from housing, spending 10% a year more than we make. Just loseing access to housing equity withdrawl is enough to trigger a recession.Even if they DO choose to stick it out, how many will lose their jobs in the coming recession? And there will be a recession. A bad and long one.Like so many others, you are still in denial. You are still bargaining. Prices ARE going back to historic norm, and there will be trillions lost. All the data says so.
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IN PLAY 3:13PM American Capital receives total proceeds of $371 million from sale of Exstream Software to HP, realizes a gain of $18 million (ACAS) 35.95 +0.51 : Co announces that it has realized a gain of $18 mln and recognized total sale proceeds of $371 mln in Q1 of 2008 from the sale of its portfolio company Exstream Holdings to HP. Co has now realized an inception to date net gain on its investment in Exstream of $15 million, earning a 22% compounded annual rate of return on its investment, including interest, dividends and fees earned over the life of its investment.That's how ACAS rollz...

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More denial on housing....http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home"Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton said she is proposing a $30 billion, two-year program to help homeowners and communities hit by rising foreclosures.""The money could be used to counsel homeowners in financial distress, help state agencies with refinancings, allow localities to purchase and rehabilitate foreclosed properties for resale, and help communities clean up blighted areas with new infrastructure, including fire and police support. "Other than buying votes, to what purpose would we spend this money? Councel homeowners in disterss.... Distressed Homemoaner: I make $50K a year and I can't make the $4K a month payments on my $500K loan. I can't refi becuase the house is now worth $350K.Counselor: You're fooked..... NEXT!To help refi? 8 million people arleady upside down? $3750 each to help them refi? 25 million going to be upside down? $1K each?To rehab foreclosures and help blighted areas? Pi ssing in the ocean.

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I had to add this one for WrongwayNot that I agree with it, I just know you'll have a field day with it.
I did see that earlier... We get to hide our losses for another quarter, so ALL is well.....Look at what he said.... "The current problems are over". True. The Fed has ensured that the Bear MBS won't be sold, so there is no new price discovery. The Fed has given them access to all the money they need to solve their liquidity crisis.Now it returns to being a solvancy problem, and that can be hidden for quite awhile longer now that the nagging liquidity problems doesn't threaten to expose it.Take me... Personally, I am ionsolvant. Let's slice out the 401(k)s as untouchable retirement money. In that case, I have negative net worth. I owe about $268K on the house, student loans and some consumer debt. On book my house is worth about $236K... but it can't really be sold for that.. All of my other assets would not go for much in a forced liquidation. Let's say $32K. As long as I get to carry the house on the books as $236K, I am fine. But in reality I could not sell it for that. 2 houses on my street have been for sale for almost a year at similar prices. One was just taken off and rented out. And, there are a good $30K in fees required to liquidate the house.Let's say I could sell the house for $200K and net $170K. Well, I am insolvant IF I am forced to admit the house is not worht $236K. Keeping Bear from forced liquidation and opening up the Fed to broakers let's them all keep pretending their MBS are still worth far more than they can actually be sold for.Current probelms solved.Until foreclosures keep going up, recovery rates keep going down, and even mark to model accounting forces additional write downs... Or, until there is another run. Or another batch of downgrades. Or until one of the bond insurers goes under or gets downgraded. Or......As I said earlier, I think we'll be in another range for quite awhile as the real problems fester and grow..... house prices continue to decline, foreclosures continue to skyrocket, jobs continue to be lost, recession sets in....Then it is back to the crunch.
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On my street there are people that paid $270K for a house that can easily be rented for $1300 a month. Their payments HAVE to be $2K a month, and they are on the hook for maintenance and repairs. A lot of people won't be able to afford the houses. Many that can will choose not to once they find themselves $100K or more upside down on a house that they are paying A LOT more to own then it would cost them to rent.BUT... even if they keep paying on the house, they will have to cut back on spending. We have been pulling $600 billion a year from housing, spending 10% a year more than we make. Just loseing access to housing equity withdrawl is enough to trigger a recession.Even if they DO choose to stick it out, how many will lose their jobs in the coming recession? And there will be a recession. A bad and long one.Like so many others, you are still in denial. You are still bargaining. Prices ARE going back to historic norm, and there will be trillions lost. All the data says so.
I disagree with this completely. Is your argument that broke people drive the economy? Those that pulled money out, did it because they needed to to have access to cash because they were broke asses to start with. Those that didn't need to because- wait for it- they are not broke asses, will be just fine. When all is said and done the broke will still be broke and the not broke won't be. I'm not bargaining. I'm just not YOU. I didn't overextend myself, I don't have 60,000 in student loans, I have like 6,000, with 800 going towards it every month because I am tired of looking at it. Sure, if you have a shit ton of debt you might need to worry and start yapping about drying your clothes on wires, but I literally work with thousands upon thousands of people who have money, and managed correctly will keep it. A reccession may be coming but that's part of the cycle of economies since the existence of the word.
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well, google not winning anything in the auction for the new wireless spectrum has some economic implications. I guess we are destined to stay in the dark age for a little while longer, internet-wise.

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I disagree with this completely. Is your argument that broke people drive the economy? Those that pulled money out, did it because they needed to to have access to cash because they were broke asses to start with. Those that didn't need to because- wait for it- they are not broke asses, will be just fine. When all is said and done the broke will still be broke and the not broke won't be.
But don't the Rich and Corporations count on the debt-driven spending of the over extended?Obviously good savers will weather the storm better; but I don't think WW said we are all going bankrupt.ps. I bought a house in Feb 2007. I'm a genius :club: :(I wonder how over priced our area is... Med House Income is 56k, Mean is 78k
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