stock market thread

[grocery_mony 8]

I picked a great time to sell my house . 2 months ago in my part of Canada mt place would have sold for probally 98% of asking within a month. Now I am stating see a ton of inventory coming onto the market all at once. I drive by townhouse complex that has 60 units and 6 are for sale. Seems like all the investors want to cash out at the same time. I owe 71k and am assessed at 175k but am listed for 215k. I think I will take 200 for it at this point if not I guess I will have to stick it out.To top it all off my bank where I have all my RRSP(retirement savings plan) has taken 5.5 billion in write downs in the last 4 months which is stagering for a bank with a market cap of 22 billion. Would have been a good time to be liquid.

[Janfor99 0]

I have $30K...

[WrongWay 0]

Same as we always have T Bills, Notes, and Bonds. Obv we need to find a taker for them.

So, swap them IOUs for IOUs.... Only way to find takers is higher interest rates.The dollar is falling because people are fleeing U.S. investments due to falling interest rates. So, with banks collapsing, stocks teatering, defaults skyrocketing and all the rest, you propose raising interest rates to save the dollar??? While I agree in principal..... talk about "ain't gonna happen".The dollar will be fine once the economic collapse spreads and all other countries have to drop interest rates too. We are first, but no one is immune.

[El Guapo 8]

So, swap them IOUs for IOUs.... Only way to find takers is higher interest rates.The dollar is falling because people are fleeing U.S. investments due to falling interest rates. So, with banks collapsing, stocks teatering, defaults skyrocketing and all the rest, you propose raising interest rates to save the dollar??? While I agree in principal..... talk about "ain't gonna happen".The dollar will be fine once the economic collapse spreads and all other countries have to drop interest rates too. We are first, but no one is immune.

You are part right. Yes give Note at 3-4% to buy back our declining dollar, on the assumption that the value of the dollar will rise (arbitrary number here) say 30% in the next 3 years. We make 25+% on that money in the short term.Also, we stockpile other governements currency also, sell it back to them for dollars, while the rate is good. Do you really think the Canadian dollar is going to be stronger than ours in 5 years? If that is the case it will self regulate because they will come across the border to purchase stuff from us, we will se more travelers from abroad etc.

[WrongWay 0]

About my $30K in credit card debt.....

Shockingly easy to do. I left a 15 year marrige with $5K in debt, then ran up another $10K in lawyer bills during the divorce. I had to pay all my lawyer and half of hers. While I paid $10K a year in alimony I ran up another $3K a year for 5 years.My thinking was that as soon as the alimony ended I would be able to pay off the debt in just a couple years... $30K a year in debt, an extra $10k a year not going to the Ex.Well, the alimony ended and income taxes took about 30% of the $10K. Call it $7K left over. BUT, I was already spending $3K a year more than I was making. Call it $4K left. But even at 5% the $30K is $1.5K in interest. Call it $3.5K a year used to pay down debt..... It was a real "wake up moment" when the alimony ended and I found myself "just barely above breaking even". What I have done is make the cut backs in spending that I should have made 6 years ago. I am putting about $1000 a month to debt reduction on top of my 15-year mortgage and my wife paying on her student loans.

[grocery_mony 8]

All we really need is another bubble.

[WrongWay 0]

You are part right. Yes give Note at 3-4% to buy back our declining dollar, on the assumption that the value of the dollar will rise (arbitrary number here) say 30% in the next 3 years. We make 25+% on that money in the short term.

But as long as we have a teade deficit, anything we do to strengthen the dollar will just be farting into the wind. We are sending $60 billion a month overseas through imports. It worked fine while they were willing to lend us every dollar back at the 5% our treasuries were paying as recenlty as last summer.But with the 10 year under 3.4%.... capital is leaving.... so the dollar is falling... so capital is leaving. EVEN if we could get rates back up above 5% to stop capital flight, we still need to attract an extra $60 billion a month to keep up with the trade deficit.

Also, we stockpile other governements currency also, sell it back to them for dollars, while the rate is good. Do you really think the Canadian dollar is going to be stronger than ours in 5 years? If that is the case it will self regulate because they will come across the border to purchase stuff from us, we will se more travelers from abroad etc.

With what????? More dollars? Any attempt to stockpile foreign currencies will counter your efforts to strengthen the dollar by bringing them back into the country.A storng dollar policy is in the nations interest...... Yeah, but the only way to get a strong dollar is to raise interest rates. Hold on for another cut tomorrow. If we get less than .75%, watch stock do a nose dive. If we get the .75%, watch the dollar nose dive.

[El Guapo 8]

But as long as we have a teade deficit, anything we do to strengthen the dollar will just be farting into the wind. We are sending $60 billion a month overseas through imports. It worked fine while they were willing to lend us every dollar back at the 5% our treasuries were paying as recenlty as last summer.But with the 10 year under 3.4%.... capital is leaving.... so the dollar is falling... so capital is leaving. EVEN if we could get rates back up above 5% to stop capital flight, we still need to attract an extra $60 billion a month to keep up with the trade deficit.With what????? More dollars? Any attempt to stockpile foreign currencies will counter your efforts to strengthen the dollar by bringing them back into the country.A storng dollar policy is in the nations interest...... Yeah, but the only way to get a strong dollar is to raise interest rates. Hold on for another cut tomorrow. If we get less than .75%, watch stock do a nose dive. If we get the .75%, watch the dollar nose dive.

Its a vicsious cycle. We could fix the deficit if we stopped Givning 100's of billions to other countires because we like them.

[Janfor99 0]

You are part right. Yes give Note at 3-4% to buy back our declining dollar, on the assumption that the value of the dollar will rise (arbitrary number here) say 30% in the next 3 years. We make 25+% on that money in the short term.Also, we stockpile other governements currency also, sell it back to them for dollars, while the rate is good. Do you really think the Canadian dollar is going to be stronger than ours in 5 years? If that is the case it will self regulate because they will come across the border to purchase stuff from us, we will se more travelers from abroad etc.

Currency policy is confusing, but I think other governments are now thinking about buying up stockpiles of our currency to 'intervene' in the dollar plunge.But, I'm thinking we aren't the only economy that will go through deflation. The rest of the world will have to cut interest rates at some point too.?

[WrongWay 0]

Here is some price discovery for you.....http://www.azcentral.com/realestate/articl...tion0317ON.htmlThis is an ex-apartment building with 188 units. They used to lease for $700-$1100 a month. It was purchased for $19.5 million, renovated for $2 million, with plans to sell the 188 units for $180K to $250K. Assuming they could have been sold for an average of $200K each that would have been a net profit of $16 million...."Joel Kaplan, 59, of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. ""Dennis Logan, 28, of Mesa took a two-bedroom, two-bath condo for $120,500. Retail price: $219,000.""14 winning bids totaled $1.9 million."ooops.... So, if you paid $250K a year ago, and an identicle unit just sold for $137,500..... and you bought your $250K unit as an investment and are having trouble renting it out for HALF the mortgage payment.....What would you do?Again, maybe my view is scewed by living in a bubble city, but this is what I am seeing here....Well, actually worse. These were apartment conversions which are cheaper than custom built. There are thousands of luxury condos that are being listed for $400K and up..... Some as high as $2 million.... And you could rent something similar for $1500 or less a month. And while current projects are nearing completion without takers, more projects are just breaking ground and other are being announced.

[El Guapo 8]

Here is some price discovery for you.....http://www.azcentral.com/realestate/articl...tion0317ON.htmlThis is an ex-apartment building with 188 units. They used to lease for $700-$1100 a month. It was purchased for $19.5 million, renovated for $2 million, with plans to sell the 188 units for $180K to $250K. Assuming they could have been sold for an average of $200K each that would have been a net profit of $16 million...."Joel Kaplan, 59, of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. ""Dennis Logan, 28, of Mesa took a two-bedroom, two-bath condo for $120,500. Retail price: $219,000.""14 winning bids totaled $1.9 million."ooops.... So, if you paid $250K a year ago, and an identicle unit just sold for $137,500..... and you bought your $250K unit as an investment and are having trouble renting it out for HALF the mortgage payment.....What would you do?Again, maybe my view is scewed by living in a bubble city, but this is what I am seeing here....Well, actually worse. These were apartment conversions which are cheaper than custom built. There are thousands of luxury condos that are being listed for $400K and up..... Some as high as $2 million.... And you could rent something similar for $1500 or less a month. And while current projects are nearing completion without takers, more projects are just breaking ground and other are being announced.

I think this is a lot of it. I am in a bubble area too, but the reports I have seen recently is that the Phoenix/Scottsdale/Tucson areas and suburbs have been hit the worst. There was 300% appreciation in some areas in < 5 years. With a lot of the buyers being retirees on fixed or semi-fixed incomes.

[ShakeZuma 585]

And while current projects are nearing completion without takers, more projects are just breaking ground and other are being announced.

2 things: they're still building new houses around here. I really don't get it. I mean, do we really need that many empty houses sitting around? we certainly don't have the problems where I am that larger cities have, but still.and also, 5% interest on a credit card? how the hell'd you get that? and how the hell can I?

[dms26 3]

My husband and I didnt and dont live beyond our means, I"m going to be really mad if Miss 60k in debt gets bailed out. LOL I drive a 2000 dodge with 221000 miles on it!!!!

I think the quickest way we get back on track is to bail out a lot of people that don't deserve it. It sucks, but there are just so many of them living the 100K lifestyle on 50K. Until mortgages stabilize I think the stock market is going to keep having big swings and usually not upswings.

I liked to hear some thoughts on this:So our currency has been devalued against pretty much every benchamrk that means any thing, Yen, Candaian, Euro, Lira, Pound, Etc.For decades now Countires like China and Russia have bought and held out currency, because it was considered a safe investment and was easy for them to use to purchase goods from other countires. It was a constant. That is not the case right now. The value of the dollar is delcining due to lower interest rates, opening up the money supply and the credit crunch.USA, (gov., fed and private companies) could use the next few years to their advantage. They can buy American Dollars at a discount, back from foreign countires, which will increase out money supply shore up the monetary policy and when our economy stabalizes; (Say in 18 months to 3 years) then our dollar will go further again in those nations.Currently Venezuela is not accepting American Currency for payment on oil, because they are getting paid 30 days after negotiation and its costing them millions.Thoughts?

The problem I see with this is what do we use? We're not exactly good at "saving for a rainy day", if we use gold doesn't that devalue the dollar even more?

[dms26 3]

Its a vicsious cycle. We could fix the deficit if we stopped Givning 100's of billions to other countires because we like them.

Definately agree here. Our gov't seems to care more about the world's problems than our own.

[El Guapo 8]

Definately agree here. Our gov't seems to care more about the world's problems than our own.

We gave pakistan 20 billion dollars last year. Just gave it to them. No loan, nothing, here ya go...EDIT: I don't want to turn this into a politics thread, but I think this is relavent.I believe we could break Opec with-in 2 years. We have enough reserves for that. In California 80% of our gas/oil consumption is produced in this state. We are by far the leading used or old in the USA. We have stockpiled are US reserves to their fullest capacity and yet we continue to buy inflated foreign oil.I have read that there is enough oil shale in the Rocky Mountains to last 300 years (although you have to mine the Rockies)If we use our reserve, open up central Alaska for drilling, The Saudis and Venezuela will have so much supply compared to demand that they will have to meet our terms on price per barrell, instead of dictating it to us. They have no other source of commerce, no exports, no infastructure, nothing. They will crumble very quickly.Oil and food are taken out of the equation when figuring out inflation (it is said because everything else is already affected by it) I think its terrible economics. We have a baby book for our son and we were looking at it the other day. There is a section that asks for costs of items when you were born.Gallon of Gas 2.07 to 3.77Dozen Eggs .99 t 1.99 (at hour local trader Joes)Gallon of Milk 1.99 to 3.99 or moreLoaf of Bread 1.99 to 3.49Everyone of these has doubled (or very close to) since we filled it out. He is 2 and a half.

[dms26 3]

Here is some price discovery for you.....http://www.azcentral.com/realestate/articl...tion0317ON.htmlThis is an ex-apartment building with 188 units. They used to lease for $700-$1100 a month. It was purchased for $19.5 million, renovated for $2 million, with plans to sell the 188 units for $180K to $250K. Assuming they could have been sold for an average of $200K each that would have been a net profit of $16 million...."Joel Kaplan, 59, of Scottsdale, took the first unit, paying $137,500 for a 1,661-square-foot, three-bedroom unit that retails for $249,900. ""Dennis Logan, 28, of Mesa took a two-bedroom, two-bath condo for $120,500. Retail price: $219,000.""14 winning bids totaled $1.9 million."ooops.... So, if you paid $250K a year ago, and an identicle unit just sold for $137,500..... and you bought your $250K unit as an investment and are having trouble renting it out for HALF the mortgage payment.....What would you do?Again, maybe my view is scewed by living in a bubble city, but this is what I am seeing here....Well, actually worse. These were apartment conversions which are cheaper than custom built. There are thousands of luxury condos that are being listed for $400K and up..... Some as high as $2 million.... And you could rent something similar for $1500 or less a month. And while current projects are nearing completion without takers, more projects are just breaking ground and other are being announced.

Is there really that many people who just bought houses in the last 2 years? I can see that being the case in bubble cities but is that the case everywhere?I live just outside Tampa and bought a condo in late 2004 for 116K, by mid 2006 some were selling for 160K. In late 2007 a few sold for 120K. So technically people could say the price dropped 25%, but really it's been flat over the last 3 years.But then again I guess some of the biggest bubble areas also have the highest populations

[dms26 3]

We gave pakistan 20 billion dollars last year. Just gave it to them. No loan, nothing, here ya go...

want some of our jobs too? Can you speak broken English? OK no problem.

[Dratj 0]

About my $30K in credit card debt.....Shockingly easy to do. I left a 15 year marrige with $5K in debt, then ran up another $10K in lawyer bills during the divorce. I had to pay all my lawyer and half of hers. While I paid $10K a year in alimony I ran up another $3K a year for 5 years.My thinking was that as soon as the alimony ended I would be able to pay off the debt in just a couple years... $30K a year in debt, an extra $10k a year not going to the Ex.Well, the alimony ended and income taxes took about 30% of the $10K. Call it $7K left over. BUT, I was already spending $3K a year more than I was making. Call it $4K left. But even at 5% the $30K is $1.5K in interest. Call it $3.5K a year used to pay down debt..... It was a real "wake up moment" when the alimony ended and I found myself "just barely above breaking even". What I have done is make the cut backs in spending that I should have made 6 years ago. I am putting about $1000 a month to debt reduction on top of my 15-year mortgage and my wife paying on her student loans.

How do you cut back on spending? That's my biggest problem.

[Dratj 0]

Also, any views on the Visa Ipo? Seems no serious responses in my other thread.

[El Guapo 8]

Also, any views on the Visa Ipo? Seems no serious responses in my other thread.

Meh - they have tried to do this before. Any idea on offering price range? How much are they trying to raise?

[Dratj 0]

Meh - they have tried to do this before. Any idea on offering price range? How much are they trying to raise?

37 to 42. 10 billion I think.

[strategy 4]

I got divorced twice in 5 years.... One included $15K in legal fees and 5 years of alimony at $10K a year (last payment was Feb 2007) on top of $12K child support (2 years to go). The other was a short rebound marriage that only cost me $2K to get into and another $2K to get out of. While paying the alimony I added about $3K a year in debt.My 3rd wife (as of last July) also had a divorce. The house is hers from pre-marriage, but so is the debt we recently rolled into the house (medical bills and a custody battle with her ex.) and the student loans.

ok, so it seems ridiculous to me that no one has said this yet, but...STOP GETTING MARRIED

[Actuary 3]

and also, 5% interest on a credit card? how the hell'd you get that? and how the hell can I?

I got 3.99 offer for the LIFE OF THE LOAN. Min Payment = 2% of balance. (on two of our cards):)FICO north of 775 probably helpsCHASE Visa.Just make sure to pay off any balance first and never use it for any purchases after you use the offer to transfer a balanceWhen we bought our 2005 Altima in December, the Sales guy was doing his schpeal, "So, what payments are you looking for" We: "We're not looking at payments, we just focus on the sale price" {no, we don't pay cash} "But, you know, depending on your credit score, we'll try to see where we can get your payments. " At which time I get to say "It doesn't matter because we're going to payoff the loan we get here, immediately, with a 4% Credit Card convenience check."While boasting for no real reason, I am also please to have gotten the 2005 Altima SE (V6) for $14,700. Dealership hasd good deal, we didn't have much to do ith that, aside from looking hard for a good deal. Well, as hard as 3 days allows. We are'nt too patient.

[brvheart 1,752]

Try to put yourself in the position of someone that makes $50K a year and bought a house for $250K at the peak of the boom, only to see the one next-door go for $150K 2 years later and prices are still falling. You're hitting your first ARM reset from 5% to 8% and you were barely able to make ends meet at 5%. An identicle house down the street can be rented for about 60-70% of what your old house payment was.... half what it will be after the reset.Sure, the people that are $10K underwater will stay. But, the people $100K or more will walk. Try San Diego where the median income is $50K and at the peak the medain house was selling for over $500K. Now through a bad recession on top of it. We are seeing record default rates, and the job losses are just getting started.Time will tell.

I had an awesome reply to this all written up at work and then my browser got closed and I didn't bother retyping it all until now. (all you're getting now is an abridged version of the awesome one. It's like if someone wrote a tribute song to the greatest song in the world) I understand that your scenario is going to happen in certain areas (I still don't think 50% of upside down loans will default even in Arizona or California), but DEFINITELY will not be 50% nationwide. Not even close. When I refinanced my primary residence in 2005 I only had a 725 credit score and I got a 30 year fixed at 5.00%. I paid 20% down, but I KNOW that I am an exception, not the rule, and I definitely got a better rate because of my down payment. But still, a 725 means that 50% of the population of the country had a better score, and yet I still got a 30 year fixed at 5.00%. Yes, banks caused this problem by foolishly giving money to people with no income... even talking them into ARM's which they knew that the people didn't understand, but the number of people that were preyed on by mortgage lenders is FAR less than the total upside down mortgages that the US will see in the next year. I would guess that ALL mortgages that originated in 2001 or later will be upside down or close to it. The moral of the story is this: If you say that "as much as 50% of the upside down mortgages, that are in 5 and 7 year ARMS, in Arizona and California, will default in the next couple years..." that is a statement that I could get behind.

With what? What are we going to use to buy the dollars? Dollars? What do we have that anyone wants? Maybe we could sell Florida to Dubai. Texas is already like a whole other country... maybe we could make it part of a whole other country by selling it to China.We are alredy burning coal to turn food into gasoline additive so that we can jack up the price of food that we sell them(which combined with the falling dollar is causing mass inflation in China and Europ already). Seriously.... what else?We have like 147 million ounces of gold. Even at $1000 an ounce that is only $147 billion. What is that? 3 months of our trade deficit?ALL we have is little slips of paper that say $1 but are really just IOUs that are rapidly falling in value.

IOU's are as good as money, sir. $275 thou... better not lose that one.

2 things: they're still building new houses around here. I really don't get it. I mean, do we really need that many empty houses sitting around? we certainly don't have the problems where I am that larger cities have, but still.and also, 5% interest on a credit card? how the hell'd you get that? and how the hell can I?

My discover card was 0% for 12 months, and will go up to 4.99% in August. The cards are out there, just keep your eyes open for good offers.

[ShakeZuma 585]

I got 3.99 offer for the LIFE OF THE LOAN. Min Payment = 2% of balance. (on two of our cards):)FICO north of 775 probably helpsCHASE Visa.Just make sure to pay off any balance first and never use it for any purchases after you use the offer to transfer a balanceWhen we bought our 2005 Altima in December, the Sales guy was doing his schpeal, "So, what payments are you looking for" We: "We're not looking at payments, we just focus on the sale price" {no, we don't pay cash} "But, you know, depending on your credit score, we'll try to see where we can get your payments. " At which time I get to say "It doesn't matter because we're going to payoff the loan we get here, immediately, with a 4% Credit Card convenience check."While boasting for no real reason, I am also please to have gotten the 2005 Altima SE (V6) for $14,700. Dealership hasd good deal, we didn't have much to do ith that, aside from looking hard for a good deal. Well, as hard as 3 days allows. We are'nt too patient.

My discover card was 0% for 12 months, and will go up to 4.99% in August. The cards are out there, just keep your eyes open for good offers.

hmm... well I haven't really looked that hard for a really low interest rate, I just sign up for every one that gets sent to me.kidding. I have 2 credit cards now, a visa and an amex. the visa's got something like 12% or something crazy, but I've never paid any interest because I always pay off any balance in full. I let the amex run up a balance a few times because I heard that will raise your credit score a little, but no interest there either since I got a 0% for 12 months deal too. also, I'm still pretty young and probably still not a whole lot of credit history, so I might not qualify, but if so, where do you find these? creditcards.com? not that I really need one anyways, but after august, if I can find one I might as well.