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Picked up MCHX (Marchex) Today - it's been a favorite of the "The Fly on Wall Street" and it's fallen back to the 200d MA so I decided to open a position. I have two other stocks that were picked up after the Fly started writing about them and after doing some research, I concurred.NTRI (Nutrisystem) reports tonight and the stock has been acting fugly...Nervous Nelly time for meMVIS (Microvision) announced a deal with Motorola so the stock has jumped nicely Today - I'm still holding.RAE, WEL, APNS.OB are all on my potential sell list due to weak performance and poor stock action. So I could jettison these guys at any time.
Yea MVIS rocked! My options spiked 50-70% today with that announcement. I'm siding with "The Fly" also and holding. I will probably pick up some 08 options on any dips.Everything else is getting shalacked today, but you can't hit an all time high EVERY day :club:
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From your posts, I get the impression that you think the main source of a correction/trend reversal/bear market will be problems with housing and related credit issues. And although these are clearly issues, I don't think enough is being made of the absolutely pitiful performance of the dollar. A weak dollar, so far, seems to have helped stocks in that it has boosted, albeit it in an artificial manner, the overseas earnings of US multinationals. However, the negative effects have yet to be seen, or at least noticed. What happens when China unpegs the yuan, or reevaluates it higher? Consumers will foot the bill. Every business relies on energy, most of which is produced overseas. Depreciating dollar means higher energy costs, which means higher product prices, and who gets hurt? The consumer. And although "core inflation" remains low, how can you seperate food and energy (two things everyone MUST buy) from an inflation number and get a meaningfull statistic. The major problem I see right now for the economy is that an ever weakening dollar, combined with foreign central banks mostly raising their interest rates, eventually will HAVE to cause inflation. Based on Bernanke's guidance, the markets seem very convinced rates are going nowhere in the near to medium range future. If the weak dollar begins to spur inflation sooner rather than later, Bernanke may not be able to sit on his hands, and a fed rate increase within the next 3 quarters could be catalyst for a trend reversal.
lol, I can only imagine what other drivel he has been posting on the forums. Just put him on ignore, it's a much better solution. Reading Wrongway's posts can actually make you dumber. It's true.
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NTRI (Nutrisystem) reports tonight and the stock has been acting fugly...Nervous Nelly time for me
After the bell: Ya win some and ya lose some - still a profitable trade but much less so obviously. I'll hold in the neaer termnuclear-bomb-badger.jpg
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After the bell: Ya win some and ya lose some - still a profitable trade but much less so obviously. I'll hold in the neaer termnuclear-bomb-badger.jpg
It's an interesting one...I hate their commercials so bad and they play it way way WAYYYYYYY too much especially on CNBC. Therefore I would never endorse the company, use the product, or own their stock. For this same reason, I will never touch Vonage, or open a scottrade account :)Tomorrow will be an interesting day to watch, sucks I will be on a 9 hour car ride to NY. Oh well.
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From your posts, I get the impression that you think the main source of a correction/trend reversal/bear market will be problems with housing and related credit issues.
I think the U.S. is first into the slowdown. As the credit bust pops in other countries, the dollar will come back. Not due to strength in the U.S. economy, but from weakness in the other countries catching up to us.The economy of the last few years has been fueled by $500 billion a year equity extraction from the houseing. Why live on $50K a year when there is $100K equity in your house you can tap? Now, people will not only have to live on their $50K income, but will be paying $500+ a month more on their HELOC or refi'd mortgage. People are now using thier credit cards more. And today, American Express reported people are folloing behind on payments.Consumer spedning HAS to slow. Since consumer spending is 2/3rds of the economy, we're heading for a recession.... a bad one. The recession is what will bring down the stock market.In short, I don't expect the stock market to drop 200 points every day for the next 3 months. I expect continued chop as big money looks for profitable trades while collapsing underlying fundamentals undercut their efforts. Oct could be very ugly.
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Bye Bye 1540. I guess our buddy WrongAlways hasn't been around or somebody would be arguing with him. What a day.
Not wise to gloat in a choppy market. bye bye S&P 1540? Seems that statement was a bit premature.
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Anybody wanna loan me $514 to buy some of GOOG?Please?
500 looks to be a pretty significant support level for google, and even with the recent fall in stock price, the A/D line still looks fairly healthy. Seems like a decent time to buy the dip.
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500 looks to be a pretty significant support level for google, and even with the recent fall in stock price, the A/D line still looks fairly healthy. Seems like a decent time to buy the dip.
Know of a good way to buy just a few shares? I've heard scottrade is nice for smaller volume.And what do you think of goog, andre?
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Wonder if this will have a chilling effect on M$A activity that has been supporting the market?http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070725/chrysler_funding.html?.v=3"Investment banks raising funds for the turnaround of Chrysler Group postponed a $12 billion debt offer after investors balked, so they will now fund the bulk themselves to keep the automaker's sale on track, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday."POP-Crash of the bond market, indeed. Liquidity? Not so much any more.

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Know of a good way to buy just a few shares? I've heard scottrade is nice for smaller volume.And what do you think of goog, andre?
Never owned it so it's a thorn in my paw. Google actually went public thru the Dutch IPO process so anybody could have gotten shares at around 85 back in the day.Technically, it's breaking down Today past its 50d MA which is around 516. Currently, sitting at 508. The 200d MA and the long term trend line going back to its IPO both sit at around 480 which is about a 5% decline from the current price. If I was going to buy Google, I'd buy some around that price.However, if 480 doesn't hold, then look out below as it would violate both the 200d MA and the long term trend line. The next level of support would be 450 and then 400 in looking at the chart.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/i...535460520070725"Benchmark ABX indexes fell to record lows on Wednesday as July performance data showed further deterioration"'July remittance reports are "worse than we expected," said another market source. "Delinquencies are accelerating still."'In short, defaults are at record levels, and we're still in the early phases in the up trend. Defaults are rising. The rate at which they are rising is still rising. The bond market has frozen up.And Countrywide says it is spilling over to Prime... Duhh!!!! Contained to sub-prime my arse.Wonder what drastically tightening credit will have on an economy built on and fueled by cheap credit?
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Does anyone in here day trade the S&P or the Euro. I have a buddy that is doing it and is trying to get me to start doing it as well. Anyone have any advice?

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Does anyone in here day trade the S&P or the Euro. I have a buddy that is doing it and is trying to get me to start doing it as well. Anyone have any advice?
Futures trading has extreme risk/reward. Unlike trading stocks, where you have to put up maybe 50% on margin; I believe that you can put as little as 10% down so $1,000 can control $10,000 in assets. You're also going against the best traders in the world (e.g. MK) so you'd have to ask what type of edge you have over these guys. If you're going to do it, figure out your system, paper trade for awhile to figure out if your system works although even if you do well short term on paper it's no guarantee you'll do well long term.You'll also need a huge bankroll as any movement against you due to the leverage can result in heavy losses. Obviously read at least few books on futures trading (not sure what the best ones are but you probably can search for reviews). Market Wizards by Jack Schwager is a good book on trading in general.
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How's that bond market doing? Any spill-over of subprime to Alt-A or prime? Any spill over to the broader economy yet? Deals having trouble getting financed yet? How are hedge funds doing?Oh, credit swap spreads up 25-30% in the last week? Countrywide saying defaults up in all areas, including prime. Auto sales down 10% on consumer spending slowdown. Bond sales delayed. Buybacks cancelled/reduced. 2 more hedge funds lock thier doors.Dollar will continue to suck wind on foreign excahgne markets, until this credit crunch spreads to foreign shores. Then they'll catch up to us. Recession!

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THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!! jk. But as I've been saying for the past week, this market has been way stronger than it should have been considering credit woes/dollar woes/energy prices. I think tomorrow's open will be a fairly strong indication of whether this is a hiccup or a sign of things to come. I think we'll get a rebound tomorrow, although I'm sort of hoping for a severe correction, as all my money right now is on the sidelines and I'm looking for a good buying opportunity.

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THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!! jk. But as I've been saying for the past week, this market has been way stronger than it should have been considering credit woes/dollar woes/energy prices. I think tomorrow's open will be a fairly strong indication of whether this is a hiccup or a sign of things to come. I think we'll get a rebound tomorrow, although I'm sort of hoping for a severe correction, as all my money right now is on the sidelines and I'm looking for a good buying opportunity.
I'd rather see a gap down at the open tomorrow to shake out the scared money - I'll probably look over some stocks that I'm interested in tonight and pick price points that would be attractive as an entry point. Baby with the bath water at this point in the stock market.1490 obviously didn't hold, so 1460 is the next support level which held for now - now 1490 becomes resistance so the market needs to break thru 1490 to show that the bull will be back.Akamai is one that I'm interested in as they got clobbered - need to do some research to see if the market overreacted to their earnings release/forecast. Might double on NTRI although it was holding pretty well Today after being demolished yesterday. Broadcom and Marvell Tech are two more that I want to look at.
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Unless there is MAJOR news of more hedge funds shutting the doors or more credit sales getting cancelled, tomorrow is all about the GDP. Better than 2% growth we should see a pretty good up day. 1% or less could be very ugly again.As I heard one commentator say today when the housing numbers came in much worse than "expected" (by everyone except me it seems), the market barely moved. Even yesterday when Countrywide said it is spilling into Prime, the market was up. There is an endless stream of bad news about housing already factored in. More bad housing news can't move this market down. Now it is news of the corporate bond market, or slowing consumer spending that will move the market. Or maybe news of the bubble popping in other countries and bringing down this "amazing global expansion".We had an economy that was being fueled by $500 billion a year in equity extraction from the housing market. Now that will turn into a $500 billion a year credit implosion. Will that $1 trillion a year change in money flow alter the consumers' spending habits and put us into recession? That is the $5 trillion dollar question.My answer is that I don't see how it won't. Every day I see people living well above their means, and they're doing it on access to easy credit. Easy credit comes to an end, and it is game over for a lot of people. If that causes a dip in employment rate (and I don't see how it won't), we're really screwed.I think over the next two years, we're really screwed.

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No matter how you look at it, today was a horrendous day for bulls (which means it was a good day for me, since I have nothing invested and am looking for a good time to get in). We broke 1480, we broke 1460, we finished on the lows after 2 attempts at a rally, and the markets completely ignored good economic news.

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What the heck happened today? When I saw that GDP number I expected +100. Not -200. Oficially a 5% correction now. S&P didn't really get a chance to test the 1460 support as it closed so quickly after passing under that level. I think 1460 may have brought in more buy orders given enogh trading time left in the day.I must say, I knew the MBS bond market was crashing hard and fast, and suspected the corporate bond market would follow. I just didn't expect it to have this quick and consistant an effect on stocks. Blackstoen off 33% from initial trade price? Ouch.So, ya' gonna continue to call me "WrongAlways"?

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No matter how you look at it, today was a horrendous day for bulls (which means it was a good day for me, since I have nothing invested and am looking for a good time to get in). We broke 1480, we broke 1460, we finished on the lows after 2 attempts at a rally, and the markets completely ignored good economic news.
I switched from stocks to treasuries about 3 weeks ago. I'm up about 8% in those 3 weeks. I was thinking it may be time to move back to stocks since I figured it would be awhile before the housing problems and corp bonds really worked us into a full blown recession, and that stocks would just bounce in place until the recession really got rolling. However, with today's drop despite good economic news... I'm not so sure anymore. I'm not sure treasuries are going any higher, but Gold is getting pummeled in expectation of flat inflation, stocks are still too risky, other commodities are still hurting. Heck, I don't even want to go to Europe since I think they're soon to catch up to us in the credit crunch, and kill the Euro and Pound in relation to the dollar (strengthening the dollar in relation).Wish I knew what to do with my money now. Guess I'll just sit in treasuries.
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It's time to take another look at Indymac Bankcorp. Since I started following it, it's lost like 30% in value, and is now trading at around $21/share. 51% of shares are shorted. It's paying an 8% dividend, forward P/E is around 5. It's trading at less than book value, has solid ROE, and here's the kicker. IMB has $16/share in cash. Doesn't this mean that there's only finite risk? It's obviously in the absolute worst industry (savings and loans) and in one of the worst parts of the country (Socal) for savings and loans, but they're still turning a profit, paying a huge dividend, seem to have a definite price floor, and the possibility of a huge short squeeze. All the technical indicators seem to show that it's wayyyy oversold. I'm going to keep following and hopefully get in on the ground floor. If it gets within 8% of 16, wouldn't it make sense to buy simply b/c the dividend fully compensates for any downside risk?***forgot to mention, they have very small exposure to subprime loans, but a lot of exposure to Home Equity loans, which s troublesome since they don't have a first claim in the case of a default.

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It's time to take another look at Indymac Bankcorp. Since I started following it, it's lost like 30% in value, and is now trading at around $21/share. 51% of shares are shorted. It's paying an 8% dividend, forward P/E is around 5. It's trading at less than book value, has solid ROE, and here's the kicker. IMB has $16/share in cash. Doesn't this mean that there's only finite risk? It's obviously in the absolute worst industry (savings and loans) and in one of the worst parts of the country (Socal) for savings and loans, but they're still turning a profit, paying a huge dividend, seem to have a definite price floor, and the possibility of a huge short squeeze. All the technical indicators seem to show that it's wayyyy oversold. I'm going to keep following and hopefully get in on the ground floor. If it gets within 8% of 16, wouldn't it make sense to buy simply b/c the dividend fully compensates for any downside risk?***forgot to mention, they have very small exposure to subprime loans, but a lot of exposure to Home Equity loans, which s troublesome since they don't have a first claim in the case of a default.
A company can always stop the dividend; a good example is American Home Mortgage (AHM) today as it just announced that it's delaying payment of its dividend. Stock price on Friday was above 10 but it's been halted Today after crashing in the pre-market below 7.It, by the way, doesn't offer sub-prime loans but offers many adjustable and "Alt-A" loans which don't require as much income documentation.Doesn't mean that Indymac isn't a good buy just that the dividend by itself wouldn't mean that much to me.
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A company can always stop the dividend; a good example is American Home Mortgage (AHM) today as it just announced that it's delaying payment of its dividend. Stock price on Friday was above 10 but it's been halted Today after crashing in the pre-market below 7.It, by the way, doesn't offer sub-prime loans but offers many adjustable and "Alt-A" loans which don't require as much income documentation.Doesn't mean that Indymac isn't a good buy just that the dividend by itself wouldn't mean that much to me.
Point taken, but how about that combined with a miniscule P/E, it's trading below book value, and it seems to have a hard price floor at 16, since they have that much cash per share? I'm innexperienced with the whole investing gig, but do stocks ever trade below the amount of cash the company has?
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