5/10 @ greektown. aqs. tp with 3 players to turn

[Shimmering Wang 1]

The 5/10 game @ Greektown was actually playing pretty decent for a live game. It was tighter and more passive than usual. There was rarely a 3-bet preflop, and Top Pair hands were calling down a lot instead of raising. Most players were aware. I'd been playing reasonable aggressive, but I'd been ultra tight for the first hour or so due to a cold wave of cards. The CO has been the loosest of all players, but he's been on fire. He'll probably call the flop with any pair. He's been playing turns much better, though. The MP player was tight/weak. He'd peel the flop in mediocre/big pots, and fold the turn often. He was a suspicious player, and "kept people honest" on occassion.We're 8 handed, and I see Ad/Qd UTG. I raise, and get 3 callers, including the SB. 9sb to the flopFlop Qc Jd 4sSB checks, I bet, MP calls, CO calls, SB folds About 7BB to the turn (post rake)Turn Qc Jd 4s JhI check, MP checks, CO checksRiver 7hI bet, Mp callsWhat do you think?

[screech 0]

Were you planning to c/r a CO bet?I don't really like it. Your hand is oh so vulnerable. Too many flush draws and straight draws out there. So many hands that call 2 cold on teh flop have at least a gutshot. Your opponents always have every hand possible.Plus you have a pretty easy fold if the weak/tight raises. Change the 2 jacks to 2 7's and I like it.

[nrs02004 0]

I'm thinking a turn bet, I know that you're afraid of c/o waking up on the turn, but if he's passive I think you can bet the turn and river for value, and if raised on the turn by C/O I think you can safely fold.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Were you planning to c/r a CO bet?I don't really like it.  Your hand is oh so vulnerable.  Too many flush draws and straight draws out there.  So many hands that call 2 cold on teh flop have at least a gutshot.  Your opponents always have every hand possible.Plus you have a pretty easy fold if the weak/tight raises.  Change the 2 jacks to 2 7's and I like it.

Sorry guys. I was inventing the suits, because all I knew was that the board was rainbow, and I accidentally but a 2club flush draw out there on the turn. Fixed it.Anybody wanna try again w/o the 2 flush?

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

All the cool kids say bet the turn. I do too.Seriously... you're probably missing value and giving other people a chance to catch up for free.

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

Sorry guys. I was inventing the suits, because all I knew was that the board was rainbow, and I accidentally but a 2club flush draw out there on the turn. Fixed it.  Anybody wanna try again w/o the 2 flush?

With 2 to the flush, we must bet because we're vulnerable.Without 2 to the flush, we have an even better chance of being ahead.All conclusions lead to "bet" for me.

[Actuary 3]

I'll bite:Why not bet the turn?Are you c/c down? if it's from CO?

[screech 0]

Anybody wanna try again w/o the 2 flush?

I still don't want this turn to get checked through. The bd flush is that big a concern anyway. The main concern is the shitload of gutshots.I guess you checked to induce a bet on the end. How do you play the river if a A/K falls. What about something like a 9? (I guess c/c, b/f?)What are you up to wang?

[Shimmering Wang 1]

The only hands calling a turn bet from any player were a worse queen, which I think would have raised the flop. If not, it will DEFINITELY bet this turn if I check. A jack (which will raise the turn). Most open-ended draws are very unlikely given the board texture and the reaonable play of the table. KTs is a possibility, but I think MP would fold it for sure. I can see CO calling 2 in a 3 way pot with 9Ts or KTs, but I discount the possibility a little because he'd raise the flop some percentage of the time here. The fact that he didn't means he's less likely to hold one of those hands. Gutshots are also unlikely for the same reason. The only reasonable gutshot is AK, and that's a pretty easy 3-bet for the CO, and likely for MP, as well.I probably lose some value from TT. Maybe 99 and 88, too. I've concluded that there's a very slight chance of an open ender being out, and a smaller chance of a gutshot. I'm invulnerable to 2-pair spike hands.I figure when I give a free card, opponents are either drawing to 2 outs (pocket pair, Ace 4 or something) or 4 outs (king). They'll rarely call a bet here, but one or the other might bet behind.At the time, I figured my chances of getting a river call improved by about half if I checked the turn and led the river.If CO bet the turn, I planned on C/Ring and folding to a 3 bet. If MP bet the turn, I was going to call down. Wang

[TJ_Eckleburg 0]

They'll rarely call a bet here, but one or the other might bet behind.

I disagree. You said yourself the table was tight passive.Give weak/tight beyotches a chance to hemorrhage cash by being weak/tight! Bet!!I think a C/R is out-thinking yourself and accidentally pricing prospective bettors to call... AND a free card is bad.

[screech 0]

Good analysis Wang.Most of what people will call here pf with are suited connectors/high cards and mid pp's.I'm not so sure MP will bet a Q if checked to. He may fear the jack. Also, I'm pretty sure you can safely fold if MP raises teh turn. I doubt he's pulling any tricks out of the bag. So while you may pick up an extra call on teh river if your opponents have mid pp's, you may cost yourself the pot if they have a straight draw. Also, you do save a bit when a jack is out. If it goes check, bet, raise, you have saved yourself a few bets. I now think it's a lot closer. However, I don't think you're giving enough credit to hands like T9s and 98s for the CO, and ATs for MP. I still think it's a bet. Then again, I find this risk/reward thing hard. I gotta leave work right now, but I'll think of this some more when I go home and post it tomorrow.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

They'll rarely call a bet here, but one or the other might bet behind.

I disagree. You said yourself the table was tight passive.Give weak/tight beyotches a chance to hemorrhage cash by being weak/tight! Bet!!I think a C/R is out-thinking yourself and accidentally pricing prospective bettors to call... AND a free card is bad.

Free cards aren't terrible due to the mediocre size of the pot and the relative unlikely-hood that a free card promotes another hand past mine.Weak/tight players aren't the same as loose-passive calling stations. I usually term them "folding stations." They turn into calling stations if they have Top Pair. And even weak-tighties bet top pair when the preflop aggressor turns it down on the turn.The CO is NOT weak/tight. He's too loose, but capable of aggression. And he's been playing very very reasonably on turns. Wang

[screech 0]

Is CO capable of raising for a free sd with say KQ?MP is no problem. If you bet, his actions will let you know where you're at. After giving this a whopping 2 minutes more thought, I think this is a turn bet. I think the info/value you get from a turn bet outweighs the induced calls you get on the river, or the induced bets you get on teh turn. I also want to give gutshots the chance to fold. Especially ones with a king. Against aggressive players, I can see a case being made for the turn bet. You really don't want to have to face a raise and get outplayed. At the same time, aggressive players are more likely to bet this turn for you anyway.

[Shimmering Wang 1]

Is CO capable of raising for a free sd with say KQ?MP is no problem. If you bet, his actions will let you know where you're at. After giving this a whopping 2 minutes more thought, I think this is a turn bet. I think the info/value you get from a turn bet outweighs the induced calls you get on the river, or the induced bets you get on teh turn. I also want to give gutshots the chance to fold. Especially ones with a king. Against aggressive players, I can see a case being made for the turn bet. You really don't want to have to face a raise and get outplayed. At the same time, aggressive players are more likely to bet this turn for you anyway.

After the hand, I was pretty sure I screwed this one up, but not to majorly.When I posted, I was pretty sure a turn bet was the right move. The main reason is that gutshot + king hands are drawing way too live to give up a free card, even if I get paid off significantly more often on the end.I think it ended up being close, but not horrible considering my reads of the players. CO was aggressive enough that I could have won more from him than normal with a wide range of hands that I was way ahead of by checking this turn.Thanks for the replies, and good analyis everyone