Bubba83 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 What's real and what's for sale?Blew a kiss and tried to take it home.Guess the song/artist and win a stale gingerbread cookie!On to the poker:This occured to me while I was thinking about poker instead of playing it during the 36 hour power outage. In limit poker, would it be correct to assume that folding preflop when we do not have a forced bet in the pot is a -EV play? Afterall, we only have 7-8 hands to see outside of the blinds before we are forced to bet in the blinds. Because of this we need to be making money outside of the blinds to compensate. Does anyone else think about it like this? I calculate the cost of an orbit, in say, 2/4 to be $3. At a 10 handed table we're paying 30 cents a hand no matter what our action is. If that is a safe assumption, then we can look at our PokerTracker stats and see that over thousands of hands we lose 20 cents everytime we raise say, AJ offsuit from UTG at Party 2/4. If we lose 20 cents everytime we make that play, isn't it better to make that play rather than fold since we lose less than the 30 cents it costs to fold?Is my logic here wrong or right? I think the lack of technology may have fried my brain. Link to post Share on other sites
finztotheleft 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 I don't have PT so I'm not sure how it forms it's stats, but with AJ aren't you losing the 20 cents plus the 30 cents ? Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 STP Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Your play outside the blinds doesn't cost anything. So if you're losing money over 10,000 samples of raising AJo UTG as opposed to folding, folding is better.In that case raising has an EV of -.20. Folding has an EV of 0. After this, we can amortize the cost of the blinds to all the positions. If we always play 10 handed, that would be BB + SB / 10. Which, for 1/2 would be 3 dollars/10 = .3 dollars. We pay 30 cents to see our hand. If we fold the hand, it costs us 30 cents. If we raise and lose 20 cents, we STLL had to pay that 30 cent fee, and gave away another .2 dollars on top of it, for a net loss of a JFK coin.Wang Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 I guess a36 hr power outage is enough to make anyone dellusional. Link to post Share on other sites
Sysvr4 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Vasoline / STP, too easy :)Oh, all that shit Wang said...JeffPS - It isn't you, isn't me Link to post Share on other sites
econ_tim 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 i didn't read the whole post, but why does it matter if we have a forced bet or noti had a poker idea once too, and it goes like this:you shouldn't think of the blinds as "yours." just think of them as the antes. the reason you call more raises from the BB than from the CO isn't because you put "your" chips in the pot. it's because it cost less to call a raise when you are the BB. Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 It depends on how creative your accounting is.Poker tracker accounts for the 'cost' of the blinds as they're played (rather than using average costs of blinds per hand), which is probably the best way of doing it.edit: oh wait, are you talking about how it should affect your decision making process? then you definitely shouldnt be using an average cost method. Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Author Share Posted January 3, 2006 Syssvr wins the cookie. I guess I was dillusional, but was quite excited when I came up with this, maybe the lack of a computer all day long could be a good thing for my poker mind. Although my thoughts were not correct in this instance it still made me think a lot. Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Dear screech and bubba:Holding a false set of beliefs does not make you a budget PC, nor does it make you a pickle.Sincerely, Abbaddabba. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted January 3, 2006 Share Posted January 3, 2006 Syssvr wins the cookie. I guess I was dillusional, but was quite excited when I came up with this, maybe the lack of a computer all day long could be a good thing for my poker mind. Although my thoughts were not correct in this instance it still made me think a lot.Dude, fuck you, seriously. I said "STP" in a post all it's own. 2nd response in the thread. You'd better beat up Sysilver Surfer and get my cookie back, or find another damned cookie, punk. Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted January 5, 2006 Author Share Posted January 5, 2006 The first person who named the song and artist was to win the cookie, and that was clearly Sysvr! Link to post Share on other sites
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