Am i losing value on this river bet?

[Lavitz 0]

** All Down the Line [Hold 'em] (0.25|0.50 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money- Handyman1968 sitting in seat 2 with $28.90- amandha sitting in seat 3 with $46.90- Odwe sitting in seat 4 with $23.75- B39-Metal sitting in seat 5 with $65.13 [Dealer]- copester sitting in seat 6 with $56.13- laddy sitting in seat 7 with $43.00- intrepid_t sitting in seat 8 with $76.60- rytoast sitting in seat 9 with $62.29- cudd517 sitting in seat 10 with $97.55copester posted the small blind - $0.25laddy posted the big blind - $0.50** Dealing card to cudd517: Queen of Clubs, Queen of Heartsintrepid_t foldedrytoast foldedcudd517 raised - $2.00Handyman1968 foldedamandha foldedOdwe foldedB39-Metal called - $2.00copester called - $2.00laddy folded** Dealing the flop: Jack of Diamonds, 10 of Spades, 10 of Heartscopester checkedcudd517 bet - $4.50B39-Metal foldedcopester called - $4.50** Dealing the turn: 4 of Diamondscopester checkedcudd517 bet - $6.00copester called - $6.00** Dealing the river: Queen of Spadescopester checkedcudd517 bet - $45.00Based on my read of villian I'm doubting hes on the draw. He either has a 10 or a jack, maybe even a flopped boat and the way he check calls me on the flop and again on the turn reeks of slowplaying. (I only bet 6 on the turn because if I bet anymore I believe I scare villian away if he has the jack and he of course calls me with the 10.) If he has the jack I think he would check raise me at some point to figure out where he was. I planned on checking the river if he gave me a chance. Based on this, when my 2 outer hit I pushed after he checked. Is this river bet good? Obviously I lose value if he has a jack because I cant see him calling. However, I'm getting called with the 10. Should I have bet a more modest amount, such as 20? I could get called with a jack there, or perhaps even reraised all in if villian has the 10 although the coordinated board and straight possibilities might scare him from the reraise.

[srblan 0]

Based on the fact that there are about 28 dollars in the pot by the river, by my calculation, I think you are going to lose your customer with such a large bet. I like a bet of no more than 20 dollars on the river. If he was, in fact, slow playing a flopped boat, your less-than-pot-sized bet may encourage him to raise, at which point, you could put him all-in and most likely bust him. If he really had a hand, he probably would have bet the river. Most players are afraid that they will lose value if they check on the river and it gets checked behind them, so they will bet out immediately on the river.

[ArseneLupin3 0]

The overbet is better used out of position. I prefer 2/3 the pot here.. An underfull or bare ten will checkraise, and you may get a call out of a mediocre hand.

[Guest]

The overbet is better used out of position. I prefer 2/3 the pot here.. An underfull or bare ten will checkraise, and you may get a call out of a mediocre hand.

What he said^^^^

[pokerplayer24 0]

I actually like the bet. Jx isnt calling a big bet here no matter what. As in something in the 15-20$ range.So I think here we want to throw out a real small bet like 8-10$ or overbet and hope he has trip 10s and cant fold them.

[iggymcfly 0]

There's no way in hell that you're opponent is going for a check raise on the river with a boat after check-calling the previous two streets. None whatsoever. And if he did hit the straight, he'd still check-raise a smaller bet. I think the most likely hand for your opponent is a jack, followed by a missed draw, an overpair, and then a very small chance of trips or a straight. I'd bet $15 here so it's not clear you caught something on the river, and if you do bet more, there's no way you want to overbet the pot.You're just throwing away the money you would have gotten from a call by overbetting in this situation.

[pokerplayer24 0]

Jx isnt calling a 15$ river bet here.His betting went 4.50...6 then 15?His real problem is that his turn bet was shitty. A turn bet of around 9-10 which is the pot is getting called by Jx and allows us to put in a decent value bet on the river once we hit big.

[iggymcfly 0]

Yeah, I agree actually. I don't understand the flop and turn at all. If he doesn't want to commit too much in fear of trips than he should bet half the pot on both streets, and if he wants to push off the draw, then go ahead and bet 3/4 of the pot on both streets.Betting $4.50 and then $6 just screams "I have a weak hand and I'm scared". Come to think of it, he's really pigeonholed himself to bet $10 or $12 on the river. I just didn't recognize the situation very well, because I've never in my life bet weak after a safe turn card like that. Even if I was betting a draw, I'd bet at least $9 on the turn.

[Lavitz 0]

The overbet is better used out of position. I prefer 2/3 the pot here.. An underfull or bare ten will checkraise, and you may get a call out of a mediocre hand.

Yea but exactly what mediocre hand is calling if I bet about 20ish dollars? A jack? I simply find it hard to believe a lone jack is calling 20 on a board with two tens, and then a queen on the river. There's way too many hands that beat him here, especially since I raised p-flop. AA,KK,AQ, and even QK, KJ,AJ are all possible p-flop raising hands which beat a jack(provided he has a weak kicker) but cant beat trip 10s. I think a jack would have to raise at some point along the way, to figure out where he stands. A 10, however, would most likely slow play, although the check on the river is strange.

There's no way in hell that you're opponent is going for a check raise on the river with a boat after check-calling the previous two streets. None whatsoever. And if by some miracle, he did have a boat, he'd still check-raise a smaller bet.  I think the most likely hand for your opponent is a jack, followed by a missed draw, an overpair, and then a very small chance of trips. I'd bet $15 here so it's not clear you caught something on the river, and if you do bet more, there's no way you want to overbet the pot.  You're just throwing away the money you would have gotten from a call by overbetting in this situation.

Why wouldnt he check-raise on the river? I think he's trying to appear weak and figures I'm going to indeed throw out another bullet on the river so he simply checked, assuming rightly that I would fire again. True most players would fire first on the river if they had it, in case I check, but most players would probably raise the flop or turn to see where they stood with the jack, which he didnt.If my opponent has a missed draw then it matters not if I overbet or underbet, he is folding a missed draw, and I get no value regardless. However, if he indeed has the straight (which the Q could have completed), then he is calling my all-in.If my opponent is holding a jack I'd prolly have to bet around 10 dollars to get a call. That means that if I overbet and get called just once out of 4 times, then it is more profitable then betting 10 to get called every time. I think my opponent has a 10(or better) at least 25% of the time here.I also think that if I underbet and hope to get raised, he might not raise me seeing as the river completed a straight draw and it is a scary board. However, seeing as the overbet is a tad fishy, he might not be able to get away from his trip 10s and the pot, in which case he forces himself to call the all-in.

[Lavitz 0]

Yeah, I agree actually. I don't understand the flop and turn at all. If he doesn't want to commit too much in fear of trips than he should bet half the pot on both streets, and if he wants to push off the draw, then go ahead and bet 3/4 of the pot on both streets.Betting $4.50 and then $6 just screams "I have a weak hand and I'm scared". Come to think of it, he's really pigeonholed himself to bet $10 or $12 on the river. I just didn't recognize the situation very well, because I've never in my life bet weak after a safe turn card like that. Even if I was betting a draw, I'd bet at least $9 on the turn.

Betting 4 dollars into a 6 dollar pot isnt exactly screaming "I have a weak hand." Betting 6 dollars on the turn was not intended to push draws off, as I said I did not suspect he really has something such as K9. Perhaps he has AK, but I once againt find it hard to believe hes paying to fish for a gutshot. 6 dollars is about half the pot and I'm hoping to get called by a gutshot draw/jack. If I bet anymore I believe I'm only getting called by someone who I'm way behind to (i.e. 10). If my opponent represents the 10 and thinks I'm weak then I have to lay it down. Its much too possible for him to be playing a 10 in the BB compared to me playing one. Also, I did bet a little more then half the pot on the flop. And since, like you said, the turn was a blank, why would I risk scaring a jack away when he is way behind me? I can see your reasoning with the draw but I just really didn't think he would be on a straight draw, or at least an open ended one. If he is on the gutshot straight with AK then the only card that helps him gives me the nuts. Simple case of WA/WB in most instances.

[iggymcfly 0]

Your point is that your opponent is slow-playing the hand. Well if you think he's slow-playing, then that means that he's planning to check-raise you. If he's check-raising you than you can always reraise for value.The only hand here that could possibly call your overbet that wouldn't reraise here is a ten and that's just not likely at all. If he puts you on a jack, he's not going to check-call the turn with the idea of checkraising the river out of position. He's going to naturally assume that you'll check behind once you don't have to worry about the draw, and he'll take his check-raise on the turn. Now if your opponent had position, then I could see him smooth-calling the turn, knowing that he can at least fire out a bet if you check the river, but I can't imagine why he'd possibly smooth call the turn looking to check-raise trips in that situation.

[Lavitz 0]

Your point is that your opponent is slow-playing the hand. Well if you think he's slow-playing, then that means that he's planning to check-raise you. If he's check-raising you than you can always reraise for value.The only hand here that could possibly call your overbet that wouldn't reraise here is a ten and that's just not likely at all. If he puts you on a jack, he's not going to check-call the turn with the idea of checkraising the river out of position. He's going to naturally assume that you'll check behind once you don't have to worry about the draw, and he'll take his check-raise on the turn.  Now if your opponent had position, then I could see him smooth-calling the turn, knowing that he can at least fire out a bet if you check the river, but I can't imagine why he'd possibly smooth call the turn looking to check-raise trips in that situation.

Here is a range of hands which villian probably has: 910,10J,10Q(unlikely since he would have to hold the only remaining Q in the deck),10K,10A,JK,JA,KQ(unlikely),KA,K9Out of those hands here is how many he would probably check-raise with on river: 10Q,10JI cant see 10A,10K,JK,JA,or KQ reraising. Since I said I suspected he was slowplaying that would limit his hand range down to: 10Q,10J,10A,910, or 10K. That means less then half those hands are check raising my value bet of 10 dollars or so on the river. However, I do believe that if I push he is going to be forced into calling with any of these hands simply because he cannot lay it down. Also if my opponent does indeed put me on a jack then that means we can throw in a queen as another card he'll call my push with. (As unlikely as him having the queen is)

[iggymcfly 0]

The reason the turn bet screams weakness is that you bet a smaller fraction of the pot than you did on the flop. If you bet $3 and then $6, that would be fine and so would betting $4.50 and then $9. But betting $4.50 and $6 says "your call makes me nervous, and I dont want to put much more in the pot."Also, your hand range is way off. (Discounting missed draws that don't affect your decision:)The likely hands are:AJ, KJ, AA, KK (all of which call a small bet and fold to a larger one), and 98 which will reraise you.The unlikely hands are:QJ, J-x, 10-x, KQ, AK (of these hands, 10-x is the only one that could call your overbet but not raise , and even that might fold to an overbet)The really unlikely hands are:A-10, K-10, A-Q, 99The only reason he'd call down with trips is if he was worried that he'd be beat by anything that called a raise (i.e., he has no kicker). Once again, a slow-play is not likely at all given the action, and the idea that he has something like J-10 is ludicrous.

[Lavitz 0]

The reason the turn bet screams weakness is that you bet a smaller fraction of the pot than you did on the flop. If you bet $3 and then $6, that would be fine and so would betting $4.50 and then $9. But betting $4.50 and $6 says "your call makes me nervous, and I dont want to put much more in the pot."Also, your hand range is way off. (Discounting missed draws that don't affect your decision:)The likely hands are:AJ, KJ, AA, KK (all of which call a small bet and fold to a larger one), and 98 which will reraise you.The unlikely hands are:QJ, J-x, 10-x, KQ, AK (of these hands, 10-x is the only one that could call your overbet but not raise , and even that might fold to an overbet)The really unlikely hands are:A-10, K-10, A-Q, 99The only reason he'd call down with trips is if he was worried that he'd be beat by anything that called a raise (i.e., he has no kicker). Once again, a slow-play is not likely at all given the action, and the idea that he has something like J-10 is ludicrous.

If he has AA or KK then he would reraise my raise p-flop in most situations. Hes probably going to try to get heads up with original raiser, who was me, and ditch the other caller. Reagrdless, if he has either of those hes going to show way more agression on the flop and turn. Also, he might be coming along for the all in with AA or KK anyways.You seem to be also forgetting he is in the big blind. Many pepople in the BB seem to think since their already partially in, they will call raises with less then premium hands. Especially if theyre "sooted"

[iggymcfly 0]

You seem to be also forgetting he is in the big blind. Many pepople in the BB seem to think since their already partially in, they will call raises with less then premium hands. Especially if theyre "sooted"

Look at category 2. I specifically listed J-x and 10-x. The reason that 10-x is unlikely is that he would have raised you on the turn. If you want to argue J-x then fine, maybe it belongs in likely hands. However, all that does is add to the argument that you should underbet the river.

[Lavitz 0]

I suppose a normal villian would have raised the turn with the 10, you're right. But I still think a normal villian wouldve raised with the Jack also, somewhere along the line. Much more likely to try slowplaying trip 10s against an agressive player (myself) then not raising a jack to find out where he is. He played the hand quite strangely (regardless of what he had) and if I had to analysis how he played his hand, in retrospect, I would say it did seem like a missed draw. Check/call, check/call, check is usually either a monster or a missed draw imo.Anyways, results: He called.copester shows: 10 of Clubs, King of Clubscudd517 wins $112.26 from the main potEnd of game 616929267

[iggymcfly 0]

Wow, that's odd. I guess you had a very good read on villain here. I still think that most players would at least raise the turn in this situation, and that if villain was looking to check-raise the river he's a total fish, but nice hand. That's why you have to pay attention to your opponents instead of just blindly playing your cards. I actually made a river overbet for 12 big blinds with third pair tonight, because I knew my opponent would call with ace high, so in the right situation, anything's possible.

[Dynon07 0]

Good bet man, in fact betting higher isn't even a bad idea. If you really thought the guy had a 10 this is a great play, cause by the way he played he definetly had a 10. Don't worry about value betting here. For every time that 45 bet doesn't work, the one time it gets called makes up for the failed attempts. Don't miss these golden oppurtunities in NL, if you think he has it bet all in, everytime. Don't worry about extracting value, cause sometimes passive opponents would just call a bet of 12 here without raising. Then you look like a fool when you bet 12-16 on the river and the guy just calls with A 10. When you get golden oppurtunities like this and the board makes all kinds of draws, bet it all. Don't even think about the times these huge bets don't get called. It will work frequently, enough times to risk the fact he might not have a 10.

[DrawingDeadInDM 0]

Check behind.That's all.