Sysvr4 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 3/6 on FCP. About 50 hands into my session, no reads.I have J J on the button.PreflopUTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP1 3-bets, 1 fold, CO caps, Hero ???Jeff Link to post Share on other sites
zimmer4141 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Unless it's a game full of LAG maniacs, hero should be folding IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 Folds. And downloads some pornWang Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 call Link to post Share on other sites
TJ_Eckleburg 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 I like calling.Your implied odds hitting a Jack are just too good, and you know where you're at if not.Plus position rocks, too. Link to post Share on other sites
Sysvr4 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 For those that say call, some questions:a) What percentage of the time do we have the best hand, do you think?B) When we don't, how big a pot do we need to win at showdown to make the call +EV. c) How often do you think that happens?For those that say fold:a) What if I held QQ?B) What if I held KK?Jeff Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 It mostly depends on the flop 3-bettor and flop capper. I'd lean towards a fold in most situations. Link to post Share on other sites
Sysvr4 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Author Share Posted December 14, 2005 It mostly depends on the flop 3-bettor and flop capper. I'd lean towards a fold in most situations.Well maybe you can give us a read on them... you were UTG+1. :)Jeff Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted December 14, 2005 Share Posted December 14, 2005 It mostly depends on the flop 3-bettor and flop capper. I'd lean towards a fold in most situations.Well maybe you can give us a read on them... you were UTG+1. :)JeffYeah I noticed you at the table, but only a few minutes before you left. I typed something in the chat, but I guess you missed it.I think I remember this hand. I ended up folding when it got back to me. I had 77. I remember I thought I was getting 4:1, and I figured a bigger pair was out. I realized after I folded that I was getting 11:2 and should have called. The pitfalls of multitabling. These guys seemed like decent players. Folding your JJ was the right play IMO. Link to post Share on other sites
KDawgCometh 2 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 callthis is wrong. this is an easy fold Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 callthis is wrong. this is an easy foldnot easy for me! Link to post Share on other sites
Shimmering Wang 1 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 I like calling.Your implied odds hitting a Jack are just too goodThe odds of spiking a jack on the flop aren't very good at all. We're calling 4 bets cold, here. -EV, even if we're living in implied odds paradise Link to post Share on other sites
Canada 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 3/6 on FCP. About 50 hands into my session, no reads.I have J J on the button.PreflopUTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP1 3-bets, 1 fold, CO caps, Hero ???JeffFold and stamp your feet a little bit when the Jack flops Link to post Share on other sites
Briguy 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 3/6 on FCP. About 50 hands into my session, no reads.I have J J on the button.PreflopUTG+1 raises, 1 fold, MP1 3-bets, 1 fold, CO caps, Hero ???JeffFold and murder the dealer a little bit when the Jack flops Link to post Share on other sites
iggymcfly 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 In an online 3/6 game, I think this is a call without a strong read. It's too likely that there's lot of junk out, and even if someone has a better pair, you'll still flop a set often enough that you won't lose much value.If you know the capper to be a rock, than folding might be a stronger option, but in a typical 3/6 game, I'd call with JJ all day. Link to post Share on other sites
Sysvr4 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Author Share Posted December 15, 2005 I still refer the "call" people to my questions above and the "fold" people to my other questions above.As for calling, I think I have the best hand about 25% of the time here. CO may be capping with AK, but that's about the only hand I'm beating and an A or K will flop 1/3 of the time. By the river he'll catch one almost 50% of the time and the pot is now big enough to give him odds to chase me down on the one hand I beat PF.Let's look at this another way... in my PT database, I've had JJ 107 times and made 1.25 BB/hand with it (side note, is that good or bad?). And that's typically with me raising and/or 3-betting and building some fold equity.In this case, I'm being asked to call 4 cold (2BB) which is higher than my average for this hand. (No I didn't know this at the time) AND I have 0% fold equity.I think I call with QQ and up here but I had to let JJ go in this spot. I hated it, sure, but I'm almost sure it was the right move. Unfortunately, the board came T high and there was no showdown??? :evil: Link to post Share on other sites
Canada 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 In an online 3/6 game, I think this is a call without a strong read. It's too likely that there's lot of junk out, and even if someone has a better pair, you'll still flop a set often enough that you won't lose much value.You need roughly an 18BB profit when you hit your set to make this profitable in the long run.There is 6 there now. You need 12 moreAssuming all 3 players come to the river thats a further 4BB eachIf an average of 2 players come all the way thats 6BB each. Every time.Not happening Link to post Share on other sites
KDawgCometh 2 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 As for calling, I think I have the best hand about 25% of the time here.i think that you are being rather generous there. QQ and KK are calls. With JJ you have three overcards to mess with you, and only under the perfect situation will you just have to deal with AK as the only hand where overcards are a worry. I make this fold all day and all night at a full table Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 . I make this fold all day and all night at a full tableWhat do you do if it's 3-bets to you with JJ? Let's say UTG+1 just limped.Are you more concerned with what a CAP indicates from CO, or that you won't profit enough to justify even when you win?thanks. Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 Your implied odds hitting a Jack are just too good, and you know where you're at if not.Your set of jacks won't always be good even when you make them.And when they aren't, you're getting it up the ass. Link to post Share on other sites
Canada 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 Your implied odds hitting a Jack are just too good, and you know where you're at if not.Your set of jacks won't always be good even when you make them.And when they aren't, you're getting it up the ass.Sideways Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 do we have to make 2x the profit when calling 4 Bets as calling 2 ?Mathematically, that seems right, but I can't apply that in practice :(If we would cap with JJ, how does that differ?If the info of CO's cap, that damning?I'm just asking. Link to post Share on other sites
Abbaddabba 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 What do you do if it's 3-bets to you with JJ? Let's say UTG+1 just limped. Are you more concerned with what a CAP indicates from CO, or that you won't profit enough to justify even when you win?I think that changes a lot.An MP raise means less than an UTG raise, 3betting an MP raise requires less than 3betting an UTG raise, and capping requires more than both. In the case where there are three aggressors, and the chain started UTG, not only would each individual require a stronger hand than they would in the second hypothetical, and that's even before the cap. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 . I make this fold all day and all night at a full tableWhat do you do if it's 3-bets to you with JJ? Let's say UTG+1 just limped.Are you more concerned with what a CAP indicates from CO, or that you won't profit enough to justify even when you win?thanks.Against average players (think >8% pfr), I would call. Link to post Share on other sites
MrNiceGuy 0 Posted December 15, 2005 Share Posted December 15, 2005 If we put MP1 on AK-AQ or AA-TT, he has us crushed with an overpair about ~30% of the time, he has overcards ~60% of the time, and he has TT ~10% of the time.If we give CO AK or AA-JJ, he has us crushed ~50% of the time, and has overcards ~50% of the time.Plus UTG+1 could have a big hand for his EP raise. And, although unlikely, one of the blinds could wake up with a big pair.If you can give the reraisers those ranges, then I think calling with JJ is probably a small mistake. However, many opponents won't 3-bet AQ or TT, or won't cap AK or QQ (especially since the original raise came from EP), in which case folding would clearly be the best choice. I would fold AK here as well. The fact that we hold an A and a K reduce the likelihood that we're dominated by AA or KK, but when we're not dominated, there's a very good chance that we're splitting if we win, or that at best, we're drawing against an underpair with some of our outs dead.QQ is fairly close, I think - I call unless either of the reraisers are very rockish, but I'm ready to bail if an overcard hits and there's any heat, and I'm not going to start betting like crazy without top set. Link to post Share on other sites
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