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not worth calling with the nuts?


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Hand i saw at a 1/2 nl game a few weeks back at a casino and just got me thinking.Was the normal 1/2 100 max game which is basically total chaos. On the hand the 3 players involved were all decently deepstacked with 2 at about 250 and one just under 200.Hand played out with 5 to the flop and it came down.We'll say:player A had 250player B had 200player c had 250 delt K :D J :D A :) K :club: 10 :spade:Play A bet out into the 10$ pot with a bet of 8$. Play B and C calledPot: 34$Turn Q :D Now this is where it got interesting. Player A bet out 100 into a 34$ pot play B went over the top all in for 200. Now at this point you hold the nuts but if someone has the straight and a flush draw your putting in a lot of $ at a pretty bad equity disadvantage. Is folding definitely an option as you're most likely looking to chop up 34$ best case scenario.

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Im not sure that $200 at a 1/2 game is deep stacked. But yeah, i think you can safely fold unless you think the opponents are complete retards.You're definitely playing for a chop at best, and you generally will have at least one person free rolling you; if not both - and the other drawing live with a set

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I fold for exactly the reasons you mention.Way too huge an overbet, waaaaaay too likely we could be up against either flush draw.I'm a good enough post-flop player that I can find better edges elsewhere.Getting freerolled is -EV.

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I'm confused. Are you saying that most likely you're *already* in a chop situation and the other guy in on a draw?Not that you can know this, but is it still -EV if both people are on the same flush draw?I'd like to understand a bit more the math behind this one if someone can explain it.

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No, we're expecting that both players have the straight and one (or both) of them has a flush draw to go with it.In order words, we win our money back plus 1/3rd of the pot 80% of the time (when the flush doesnt hit), and we lose all of our money 20% of the time..2*-250vs.8*11= a significant net loss That's if both have the straight and one has a flush draw. If both have opposite flush draws, it's even worse than that.There are other combinations of possible hands, but all reasonable ones include one player having at least a straight and the other having at least two pair. Some of the combinations make the call marginally profitable. Some of the combinations make the call a marginal loss. Some of them make calling a huge loss.If the pot was larger before the action and/or your stack was smaller, it would be different.

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Im not sure that $200 at a 1/2 game is deep stacked. But yeah, i think you can safely fold unless you think the opponents are complete retards.You're definitely playing for a chop at best, and you generally will have at least one person free rolling you; if not both - and the other drawing live with a set
this will usually be the case though, so i may call.just a question - the old casino at Niagara offers the same game, 1/2 NL with 100-max, but with a $10/hour session fee.this seems ludicrously high to me - is it?daniel
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No way you can give them BOTH credit for the same straight. If one guy bets and someone elsecalls, the extra $ in the pot from the other callermakes it worthwhile to call here. Assuming a safe river, you're chopping up 1/2 of his chipsas well. If it's heads up, you're definitely gettingfreerolled, and can fold, but with the over-caller, I'm calling here.

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There are not one, but TWO flush draws here people.That means there's not one but TWO possible freerolls we're up against.JsXs, and JcXc. If I had either of those, I'm pushing the turn and hoping a naked J (exactly what we have) calls.$200 at 34, and if we're right about this, we're chopping the $200 already, and losing $200 18ish% of the time.Who here plays Omaha? Something omaha vets know very well, and omaha noobs learn either quickly or the hard way, is that it's very easy to go broke flopping broadway w/ no redraws, or by being freerolled.Not a good edge. We're not getting played at by worse than broadway here often enough to make calling off all this money very profitable.

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just a question - the old casino at Niagara offers the same game, 1/2 NL with 100-max, but with a $10/hour session fee.this seems ludicrously high to me - is it?daniel
Yep, it's insane. That's the same time charge I pay to play$10-20 limit at Brantford. Windsor casino is even worse with the charge being $12 per hour for the $100 max NL.It's criminal.
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I dont even bother playing at their NL tables because of that.I cant imagine playing profitable at those rates.You get in the range of 35 hands an hour. If you're beating it at a rate of 15bb/100 without a rake, you're going to be basically breaking even. (you pay 5bb's for every 35 hands of play in session fees, which translates to 15bb's for every 100 hands, roughly). Any less and you're losing.

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I dont even bother playing at their NL tables because of that.I cant imagine playing profitable at those rates.You get in the range of 35 hands an hour. If you're beating it at a rate of 15bb/100 without a rake, you're going to be basically breaking even. (you pay 5bb's for every 35 hands of play in session fees, which translates to 15bb's for every 100 hands, roughly). Any less and you're losing.
i have never played there for obvious reasons. last time my friend went, i asked him to time hands. he said they averaged 24 hands/hour. 24.
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he said they averaged 24 hands/hour. 24.
Ya, that's WAY common too. Lots of wanna-be Hellmuths at thetables taking WAY too long to make a VERY easy decision.I love the guys too that wear sunglasses. They're very 1.4
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i have never played there for obvious reasons. last time my friend went, i asked him to time hands. he said they averaged 24 hands/hour. 24.
That means you've gotta be(over) a 20bb/100 winner just to break even. And that's assuming you dont tip the dealers. With tips, you have to be absolutely slaughtering the table to break even. :club: That's terrible.
Ya, that's WAY common too. Lots of wanna-be Hellmuths at the tables taking WAY too long to make a VERY easy decision. I love the guys too that wear sunglasses. They're very 1.4
Rocks and rings baby.
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There are not one, but TWO flush draws here people.That means there's not one but TWO possible freerolls we're up against.JsXs, and JcXc.  If I had either of those, I'm pushing the turn and hoping a naked J (exactly what we have) calls.$200 at 34, and if we're right about this, we're chopping the $200 already, and losing $200 18ish% of the time.Who here plays Omaha?  Something omaha vets know very well, and omaha noobs learn either quickly or the hard way, is that it's very easy to go broke flopping broadway w/ no redraws, or by being freerolled.Not a good edge.  We're not getting played at by worse than broadway here often enough to make calling off all this money very profitable.
Well said, brother!!! :clap: :clap:
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I fold for exactly the reasons you mention.Way too huge an overbet, waaaaaay too likely we could be up against either flush draw.I'm a good enough post-flop player that I can find better edges elsewhere.Getting freerolled is -EV.
i dunno i just can't fold the made hand. i just gamble and hope that my hand holds up :roll:
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