Bubba83 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 Table was really juicy. Average pot has to be around $70, which is great since Bay 101 drops $4 per hand regardless of pot size in any stakes 2/4 through 10/20.9 handed/9 maxGenerally loose passive, felt like vegas... People were chasing gutshots all the way to the river with poor odds, even for 2 cold.Preflop:Hero is dealt 8 10 on the BB.UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, MP2 raises, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls. Flop: (14 SB) 6 8 10 SB checks, I check, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, Button bets, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls, Button calls, SB calls.Turn: (13 BB) 2 SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB calls.River: (17 BB) 7 SB checks, I check, MP2 checks, Button bets.I think the preflop call and the river fold are obvious decisions. I'm looking for opinions on the flop/turn plays. I hope this will generate a lot of discussion. I played it the way I'd usually play this hand online without thinking too hard about implications of my line. (Have to act faster in card rooms) Link to post Share on other sites
DrZebra 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I think at a table with this loose action and this many players, you need as big of an edge as possible. I know people will disagree with me here, but with so many players in this pot, I'd c/c the flop and turn with the intention of c/c the river if a blank hits. Since the 7 came, the fold is fine. No fold'em takes a different strategy than is obvious. Link to post Share on other sites
TheIceman05 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I think at a table with this loose action and this many players, you need as big of an edge as possible. I know people will disagree with me here, but with so many players in this pot, I'd c/c the flop and turn with the intention of c/c the river if a blank hits. Since the 7 came, the fold is fine. No fold'em takes a different strategy than is obvious.Before I suggest that you're wrong, I'd like to hear you elaborate. Give me some numbers, some situations. Tell me how c/c ing leads to higher expectation than putting more bets into the potIce Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I'd c/c this flop too, given the description of the players.While raising the flop has immediate value, it still offers players with gutshots the correct odds to draw (each player behind you will be getting at least 9:1 on the flop, and even better turn odds).If you go for a c/r on the turn, you will be able to cut your opponents odds down to 7:1. Now if they call with their gutshots, they're making a mistake.However, if for some reason I thought that button would not bet again on the turn, I would go ahead and raise the flop for value. Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Author Share Posted November 29, 2005 While reviewing the hand I thought that since I felt no opponents would fold a gutshot or anything, that I should play it strictly for value. My thinking after the hand was that I should probably check/call the flop and check/raise the turn for value. While I do make a couple players on my left face 2 cold, they're not folding very much unless they have even worse than a gutshot. I think this hand would only very very rarely be checked through on the turn, especially since it isn't the PF raiser who bet the flop, it was someone behind him, so it couldn't be a continuation bet. Is it fine to assume that we just make the pot as big as possible while we're fairly certain we have the best hand in a hand where no one is folding draws? Link to post Share on other sites
DrZebra 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 On the flop there are two chances to hit an A, K, Q, J, 9, 7, 5 or heart.I don't play these "no fold'em" games but I'd be cautious. Link to post Share on other sites
pokerplayer24 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 I think at a table with this loose action and this many players, you need as big of an edge as possible. Â I know people will disagree with me here, but with so many players in this pot, I'd c/c the flop and turn with the intention of c/c the river if a blank hits. Â Since the 7 came, the fold is fine. Â No fold'em takes a different strategy than is obvious.This really is awful thinking. We have top 2 pair on a draw heavy board. You either have to checkraise the flop here and lead the turn or call the flop and lead a safe turn. Check calling down is absurdly weak.(Have to act faster in card rooms)No need to rush your action in card rooms. Thinking the hand through is fine. Link to post Share on other sites
DrZebra 0 Posted November 29, 2005 Share Posted November 29, 2005 Raising and/or leading do not accomplish narrowing the field.This IS a draw heavy board and one in which we will certainly see a turn and river. The only way we do not question the strength of our holding is if the turn and river are limited to cards below 5 and the luckbox 8 or 10.I can't see how we take down the pot often enough to ram and jam here.The more I think about it the more I think that with so many people in the pot, this hand should be played like a 4-outter with one main difference--if you can narrow the field, you can bet for value. I think c/r the turn would be the right move. If it's checked through, know that a bet was saved because no one folds with any draw to a single bet in a 13 BB pot. Link to post Share on other sites
AlanBostick 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 Raising and/or leading do not accomplish narrowing the field.This IS a draw heavy board and one in which we will certainly see a turn and river. The only way we do not question the strength of our holding is if the turn and river are limited to cards below 5 and the luckbox 8 or 10.The point of leading or raising is not to narrow the field. You can't narrow the field in an action-happy no-fold'em game. The point of raising is to trick other players into adding money to the pot such that your equity grows more than the cost of your bets and raises.I can't see how we take down the pot often enough to ram and jam here.Suppose our hero is a 2:1 dog to win the pot, given all the draws that are out there. There are eight players seeing the flop. Getting 7:1 on a 2:1 proposition is a HUGE overlay. As it happened, three players dropped out on the flop. Our hero's equity is increased a little by the folds, and getting 4:1 on two bets on the flop increases our hero's equity by rather more.The more I think about it the more I think that with so many people in the pot, this hand should be played like a 4-outter with one main difference--if you can narrow the field, you can bet for value. I think c/r the turn would be the right move. If it's checked through, know that a bet was saved because no one folds with any draw to a single bet in a 13 BB pot.Sometimes the flopped two pair is going to hold up unimproved. It's going to hold up unimproved often enough that it's pretty much mandatory that our hero pay off one bet on the river, even if he misses his draw to a boat.No-fold'em hold'em is often about money and odds, not about big kickers and domination. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 Raising now is best if we suspect button might not lead the turn.Otherwise, calling with the intention of raising any non-disasterous turn card is probalby the best play. This includes pretty much any card besides a 7 or 9. Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Author Share Posted November 30, 2005 As it happened, three players dropped out on the flop. Our hero's equity is increased a little by the folds, and getting 4:1 on two bets on the flop increases our hero's equity by rather more.Actually, only one person dropped out on the flop, and 2 dropped out on the turn. Anyways, yeah, we're getting as many bets in as possible for value. Sure there are a lot of scary cards that could come and kill our hand but there are also plenty of times where our hand will hold up, and we want to make the pot as large as possible for when it does hold up. And it really holds up more than enough for us to want to make the pot as large as possible.I discussed this hand about an hour ago with Lee Jones, he's actually my friend's dad. Pretty cool huh? He's been to some of my home games Anyways, he also thinks we should check/call the flop and look to c/r a safe card on the turn for value. People calling 2 cold on the turn for a gutshot, are making a much larger mistake than on the flop, and we can lose less when a scary card comes on the turn, we make more when a safe card comes on the turn. He said he's going to send the hand over to Barry Tannenbaum for further analysis, LOL. Link to post Share on other sites
TheIceman05 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 Raising and/or leading do not accomplish narrowing the field.This IS a draw heavy board and one in which we will certainly see a turn and river. Â The only way we do not question the strength of our holding is if the turn and river are limited to cards below 5 and the luckbox 8 or 10.The point of leading or raising is not to narrow the field. You can't narrow the field in an action-happy no-fold'em game. The point of raising is to trick other players into adding money to the pot such that your equity grows more than the cost of your bets and raises.I can't see how we take down the pot often enough to ram and jam here.Suppose our hero is a 2:1 dog to win the pot, given all the draws that are out there. There are eight players seeing the flop. Getting 7:1 on a 2:1 proposition is a HUGE overlay. As it happened, three players dropped out on the flop. Our hero's equity is increased a little by the folds, and getting 4:1 on two bets on the flop increases our hero's equity by rather more.The more I think about it the more I think that with so many people in the pot, this hand should be played like a 4-outter with one main difference--if you can narrow the field, you can bet for value. Â I think c/r the turn would be the right move. Â If it's checked through, know that a bet was saved because no one folds with any draw to a single bet in a 13 BB pot. Sometimes the flopped two pair is going to hold up unimproved. It's going to hold up unimproved often enough that it's pretty much mandatory that our hero pay off one bet on the river, even if he misses his draw to a boat.No-fold'em hold'em is often about money and odds, not about big kickers and domination.Thanks, Alan.Hey. Guys. Listen. He knows what he's talking about. He's a smart guy. I'm a moron, but if you won't believe me, believe him.This isn't a very complicated thing. If there are 30 bad cards and 16 good cards when you have top two-pair, and there are 6 players, why are you reluctant to get the money in??Good post, Alan BostickckckckcIce Link to post Share on other sites
Egarim 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 Well played. I don't think there's really any better way to play this hand... Every street looks good to me. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 This isn't a very complicated thing. If there are 30 bad cards and 16 good cards when you have top two-pair, and there are 6 players, why are you reluctant to get the money in??I'm not reluctant. I just think the turn is a better time to get the money in if we think the button will bet again.We get more value from fd's, and give gutshots the opportunity to fold, or call incorrectly. More value for us. Link to post Share on other sites
Bubba83 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Author Share Posted November 30, 2005 Added a little poll since there seems to be mixed feelings about the best line. Link to post Share on other sites
AlanBostick 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 The reason why you want to get as much money into the pot as you can on the flop is that on the flop in a multi-way pot like this, you are getting the best of ever bet you can manage to get into the pot. Once the turn card hits, everything can change. You might still have the best hand... or you might be drawing to four outs. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 The reason why you want to get as much money into the pot as you can on the flop is that on the flop in a multi-way pot like this, you are getting the best of ever bet you can manage to get into the pot. Once the turn card hits, everything can change. You might still have the best hand... or you might be drawing to four outs.True. But when you know that there's a high chance that button will bet again, you can raise his bet as long as any 7 or 9 does not come off, and you be getting even more the best of it. Hands that can profitably call on the flop, now do so to their own detriment. Also, if a bad card comes off and there's a lot of action on the turn before it gets to button, you will be glad you never raised the flop. And what do you do if a scare card hits the turn? Check/fold? Bet/call? A scare card may end up freezing your, or may cause you to put in too much money. Even if a scare card doesn't hit and you bet the turn, just about any hand imaginable will have the proper odds to outdraw you. Link to post Share on other sites
AlanBostick 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 The reason why you want to get as much money into the pot as you can on the flop is that on the flop in a multi-way pot like this, you are getting the best of ever bet you can manage to get into the pot. Once the turn card hits, everything can change. You might still have the best hand... or you might be drawing to four outs.True. But when you know that there's a high chance that button will bet again, you can raise his bet as long as any 7 or 9 does not come off, and you be getting even more the best of it. Hands that can profitably call on the flop, now do so to their own detriment. The question is: are the extra bets that you can get into the pot on the turn some of the time when a non-scary card hits worth more to you now, on the flop, than the extra bets you can get into the pot now? Really?Also, if a bad card comes off and there's a lot of action on the turn before it gets to button, you will be glad you never raised the flop.That's results-oriented thinking. That's why they call it "gambling". Keep thinking like that, and you'll be welcome in my game, any time.On the flop, I'm getting an overlay on every bet I can make. If a bad card comes on the turn, well, I lost that wager. Next hand! It doesn't alter the fact that I was getting the best of my flop action. And what do you do if a scare card hits the turn? Check/fold? Bet/call? A scare card may end up freezing your, or may cause you to put in too much money. Even if a scare card doesn't hit and you bet the turn, just about any hand imaginable will have the proper odds to outdraw you.If a scare card hits the turn, I'm now drawing to four outs, and probably getting the right price to draw unless turn action is heavy. And if a non-scary card hits the turn, yes, some of the players are getting the right price to draw. The best flush draw was always getting the right price, and in fact has as much an interest on the flop as I do in getting the suckers to put more bets into the pot. The others who wind up getting a good price to draw on the turn have done so at the expense of having made terrible flop calls ... to my profit.Remember, the drawing hands use pot odds to determine whether it is profitable to call. In effect they are comparing their equity in the pot to the cost of a bet. I, on the other hand, am counting the additional increase in my equity coming from their calling my bet. They may be getting the right price to call, but I still profit from the bet. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 The question is: are the extra bets that you can get into the pot on the turn some of the time when a non-scary card hits worth more to you now, on the flop, than the extra bets you can get into the pot now? Really?Yes.Higher equity, bigger bets --> more profit. It's not that complicated.That's results-oriented thinking. That's why they call it "gambling". Keep thinking like that, and you'll be welcome in my game, any time. On the flop, I'm getting an overlay on every bet I can make. If a bad card comes on the turn, well, I lost that wager. Next hand! It doesn't alter the fact that I was getting the best of my flop action. How is it results oriented thinking if that's not what happened in this hand?Yes it's gambling, and I don't mind gambling with the best of it. There are only 8 cards in that deck that I'm not raising the turn with. And if one of those 8 cards happens to hit hte turn, I'll be very glad I never raised the flop.This is a textbook case of waiting to exploit a bigger edge.If a scare card hits the turn, I'm now drawing to four outs, and probably getting the right price to draw unless turn action is heavy. And if a non-scary card hits the turn, yes, some of the players are getting the right price to draw. The best flush draw was always getting the right price, and in fact has as much an interest on the flop as I do in getting the suckers to put more bets into the pot. The others who wind up getting a good price to draw on the turn have done so at the expense of having made terrible flop calls ... to my profit.I'm more concerned with the gutshots than the flush draws. And by waiting for the turn, we have a greater chance of dodging that flush draw on the end. So instead of having say, a 10% equity edge on all the small bets that go in on the flop, waiting for the turn allows us to have around a 30% equity edge on the big bets that go in on the turn. Why would you want to put in less money when you have the larger edge?? This seems backwards.As for the others who wind up getting a good price on teh turn, they are also getting a good price on teh flop. According to the fundamental theorem, it would be very hard for them to make mistakes getting over 10:1 on both streets (or at least their mistakes would be minimized). If you wait for the turn, these players cannot profitably call with their weak draws. When they do, they make a mistake according to the fundamental theorem, and we make money.Remember, the drawing hands use pot odds to determine whether it is profitable to call. In effect they are comparing their equity in the pot to the cost of a bet. I, on the other hand, am counting the additional increase in my equity coming from their calling my bet. They may be getting the right price to call, but I still profit from the bet.Right.So tell me again why you pushing a small edge on the flop with small bets and allowing all the weak draws to profitably call is better than pushing a larger edge on the turn with large bets, while giving the weaker draws the option to either fold or call incorrectly. Link to post Share on other sites
AlanBostick 0 Posted November 30, 2005 Share Posted November 30, 2005 If you wait for the turn, these players cannot profitably call with their weak draws. When they do, they make a mistake according to the fundamental theorem, and we make money. BZZZT! Thank you for playing.Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker is not valid in multi-way pots.Let me say that again:Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker is not valid in multi-way pots.Don't come back until you've googled "Morton's Theorem" and read what you've found. Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 I know all about Morten's Theorem. Schooling and all that shit. And while Sklanksy's Theorem is not completely valid for multiway pots, the theory behind it is still mostly valid. IF OUR OPPONENTS CALL WHEN THEY SHOULD FOLD WE MAKE MORE MONEY THAN WHEN OUR OPPONENTS CALL WHEN THEY HAVE THE CORRECT ODDS TO DO SONow, if fish 1 calls the turn, and fish 2 and 3 and so forth and so forth, it may turn out that they do in fact end up with the odds to chase their draws. But you know what, it's still better than raising the flop. Why? Because we are now getting them to put in more money awith reduced odds. Our equity is higher on the turn, and they put in more money. We make more. So next time, instead of picking out a single line from my post, spinning it around, and then regurgitating all this shit that you've read that is for the most part irrelevant to this situation, why don't you do some thinking for yourself and try to understand the underlying theory as to why we make more money by waiting for the turn. Link to post Share on other sites
TheIceman05 0 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 Screech rarely gets this fired up.Way to go Alan.I agree with Alan on this one, but I see where you're coming from Screech. I agree that we can expect to exploit a larger edge on the turn if we wait, we can also expect to lose some value from hands like KQ if an A comes, QJ if a K comes, etc. We have a big edge now, and there are plent of cards that can come on the turn that eliminate our action. And if the button checks, it's a disaster.Pump it now. Think of it like bombing a big draw. You don't wait for the turn, do you?Ice Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 Screech rarely gets this fired up. Way to go Alan.I think it has something to do with his avatar.I agree that we can expect to exploit a larger edge on the turn if we wait, we can also expect to lose some value from hands like KQ if an A comes, QJ if a K comes, etc.All these hands now pick up gutshots. Given the player descriptions, they will still call. We won't lose value from these hands.We have a big edge now, and there are plent of cards that can come on the turn that eliminate our action.I agree with the first part, but I don't think our edge is as big as many people may think. If we are up agianst 5 opponents going into the turn, I think we will win somewhere between 30-40% of the time from flop to river.And if the button checks, it's a disaster.Yeah. I said in my first couple of posts that if I had a reason to believe the button would not bet the turn, I'd go for the immediate flop value.Pump it now. Think of it like bombing a big draw. You don't wait for the turn, do you?It's a bit different than bombing a big draw. With a big draw (say fd and a gutshot), we usually won't improve by the turn. When we don't improve, our equity drop by nearly 1/2.Here, there are a ton of good cards that can hit on the turn. More often than not, our equity will increase on the turn, and when it does, it goes up quite a bit. Even if a 3rd flush card hits the turn, our equity still won't drop. Link to post Share on other sites
TheIceman05 0 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 Screech rarely gets this fired up. Way to go Alan.I think it has something to do with his avatar.I agree that we can expect to exploit a larger edge on the turn if we wait, we can also expect to lose some value from hands like KQ if an A comes, QJ if a K comes, etc.All these hands now pick up gutshots. Given the player descriptions, they will still call. We won't lose value from these hands.We have a big edge now, and there are plent of cards that can come on the turn that eliminate our action.I agree with the first part, but I don't think our edge is as big as many people may think. If we are up agianst 5 opponents going into the turn, I think we will win somewhere between 30-40% of the time from flop to river.And if the button checks, it's a disaster.Yeah. I said in my first couple of posts that if I had a reason to believe the button would not bet the turn, I'd go for the immediate flop value.Pump it now. Think of it like bombing a big draw. You don't wait for the turn, do you?It's a bit different than bombing a big draw. With a big draw (say fd and a gutshot), we usually won't improve by the turn. When we don't improve, our equity drop by nearly 1/2.Here, there are a ton of good cards that can hit on the turn. More often than not, our equity will increase on the turn, and when it does, it goes up quite a bit. Even if a 3rd flush card hits the turn, our equity still won't drop.Oh yeah? Well lay off; I'm drunk.Alan's right here. The disastrous nature of a check-through probably outweighs all other factors, as does the the relative horribleness of action-killers. We also have to take into account the fact that: Some players are peeling the flop with hands like A2. They suck. They're folding the turn. This CANNOT be overestimated. The hands these players are in there with are SO. FUCKING. BAD. They're going to see a turn (incorrectly!), but definitely fold to any turn aggression (correctly!).Cheers,TheTownDrunk Link to post Share on other sites
screech 0 Posted December 1, 2005 Share Posted December 1, 2005 Some players are peeling the flop with hands like A2. They suck. They're folding the turn. This CANNOT be overestimated. The hands these players are in there with are SO. ****ING. BAD. They're going to see a turn (incorrectly!), but definitely fold to any turn aggression (correctly!).Good point.I've never met a drunk who's been wrong.But you also have to consider our opponents that have weaker hands then we do now, and opponents that pick up weaker made hands on the turn. If they're peeling with this garbage, their calling the turn if they connect with garbage. They may even call the turn with the same UI garbage they called the flop with.I agree that if we don't think the button will bet again that we have to raise this flop. If we are 100% sure he will bet the turn, we get way more value by waiting for the turn. We simply exploit a larger equity edge with bigger bets and our opponents mistakes get magnified.It's the in-between 0 and 100% that things get fuzzy. Link to post Share on other sites
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