call or fold to overbet on very scary board

[Snowman 0]

$5.50 SnG on PokerStars.PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxBB (t2020)UTG (t1575)UTG+1 (t1425)MP1 (t1562)MP2 (t2958)CO (t995)Hero (t1545)SB (t1420)Preflop: Hero is Button with [Js], [Ah]. 1 fold, UTG+1 calls t90, CO calls t90.Flop: (t405) [Ac], [Jc], [Kc] (3 players)UTG+1 checks, CO bets t875 (All-In), Hero...CO is a bad loose player who has been somewhat aggressive. His call pf doesn't tell me a lot, but it seems unlikely that he has a flush as a lot of the high flush cards are on the board. A set is not very likely either as he would probably have re-raised pre flop.The read on UTG+1 is the same as on CO, bad, loose and somewhat aggressive. They have actually been clashing a few times with each other so far.I'll have about $500 left if I call and lose and UTG+1 folds.

[copernicus 0]

I've gone into the tank for about 5 minutes on this one, and still don't know what to do.I'm worried about his QT or pair of K's or Js with a flush draw, and those possibilities are about equally likely. You also have 6 or 4 outs against any of those possibilities. With that board, though, he could be hoping you had small or middle pair and will run.With my time bank running low my hand would hover over the call and fold buttons and I really dont know where it would land. Im thinking call would be it, (I know call we would be it if I were just in a low buy in to kill time), but building a bankroll I can't be sure I would.

[Davin 0]

i really cant see a hand your behind on besides q10, and even then, the likelihood is small.maybe club draw w/ a straight draw or somehting similar, but i dont think you can afford to fold this hand. you'd still have 15x bb even if you lost, which is enough to amount a comeback with. but if you won, you'd have a nice cushion to gain more chips with.i'd call

[kristianlinnell 0]

Yeah, it's a real close one. Obviously, he could have middle suited connectors in clubs or QT. Alternatively he could have KJ, The Q Jx, T 9X, a bare queen or ten for a gutshot (unlikely) or more probably a bare ace, K9 or a bluff, hoping to scare you out. I would call here for a few reasons. 1) At $5.50, your opponents are usually aware enough to checkraise with a flush. 2) This particular opponent is down on his chips and is presumably on tilt. 3) A mistake isn't fatal, both for your hand and for the tournament. Against that is the fact that its a close decision and a player remains to, in very rare cases, checkraise you with a slowplayed flush or QT.

[copernicus 0]

Yeah, it's a real close one. Obviously, he could have middle suited connectors in clubs or QT. Alternatively he could have KJ, The Q Jx, T 9X, a bare queen or ten for a gutshot (unlikely) or more probably a bare ace, K9 or a bluff, hoping to scare you out. I would call here for a few reasons. 1) At $5.50, your opponents are usually aware enough to checkraise with a flush. 2) This particular opponent is down on his chips and is presumably on tilt. 3) A mistake isn't fatal, both for your hand and for the tournament. Against that is the fact that its a close decision and a player remains to, in very rare cases, checkraise you with a slowplayed flush or QT.

I rarely check raise with a flush or straight. The main exception is filling a double belly buster that is much harder to identify as a straight. An alert opponent isnt going to bet into you, but can convince himself that your bet is a steal rather than the real deal, just as we arent sure whether this all in is a steal or the straight.

[kristianlinnell 0]

You mean, if you had about 900 chips left, the pot was 405 , there was an A, K and J on board and three clubs, you wouldn't checkraise? Sure, I would not checkraise with a straight but that does not mean his 'bad' opponent would not. But with the flush I think I might, at this low-level. If he had checked his nine-high flush or whatever, what is our hero going to do with top two pair here or a three-suited board? Of course, he is going to bet something like 250 or 300. Now, he can reraise all-in just as before but with the proviso that he now knows he is going to win 300 if our hero folds, whereas previously he earns zilch. And, after a little dwell-up, he might even induce our hero to make a pot-odds-induced call when he might have previously folded. I admit the checkraise move is not cut-and-dry and appeals more to players of a more obbsessively trappy nature but don't you think that by him not employing the move, this indicates that he doesn't have a flush?Going into greater depth, I'll grade an opponent by three levels.Grade 1: So weak, he sees his flush and instinctively goes all-in (unlikely for a PS player at this medium level)Grade 2: Weak enough to automatically check his strong hand, assuming immediately that regardless of opponents this will be his best bet of making money Grade 3: An opponent strong enough to grasp that by betting, he might actually prise more money from his opponent. As I said, its close call on all accounts, as to what he's doing and what you should do. The first is based on the quality and nature of the opponent and the latter on the quality and nature of your opponent.

[Snowman 0]

My own thoughts:The overbet smells fishy no matter what in my mind. So it comes down to the perception of my opponent.My read on him is that he is bad. He is loose and he has not been afraid to bet so he's not as passive as some bad players. But he's hardly a maniac either.In my mind I find it more likely that he hit the board in some way and possibly (very likely?) has a flush draw. I'm not sure that that is a correct assumption though.If I thought he was a strong player, I think I'd be more inclined to fold as it looks like he's trying to make me suspicious about the bet.For what it's worth, I called so I have the results if you are interested, but I will wait a while longer before posting them.

[No_Neck 0]

I would call because if you lose you are not out, also you have a few outs to boat, and if he had the flush or the straight would he play like this? I expect him to turn over A rag. Might have a flush draw might not.on the other hand folding is not a bad option at all

[Cue 0]

With CO being a bad loose player I would make this call. There are just too many hands you would be ahead of and/or dominate that he could have and you know he would still make that same push even with any of them. Conversely there are only a few hands you would be behind and as others pointed out you would have outs.

[NarSARSsist 0]

Just curious. Anyone think it's something like A 4 for a weak top pair and weak flush draw or maybe just a Q or 10 of clubs? I dunno, there's something about that overbet. Though, now as I'm typing it, what about suited connectors, like 6 7 of clubs?As for calling or not, I'd probably end up calling it, as you'd still have 550 left, and with the blinds at 15/30, that's not too bad [as well as the other reasons mentioned by the others]

[cheetaking 0]

I'm going to be doing this from a mathematical standpoint, so sit back and watch the numbers fly.Before hand, I'll say that I would probably call because the buy-in is so low and the curiosity would tempt me beyond belief. Plus, even if the call was wrong, you'd still have 500 chips left, which is a legitimate stack to work with.All right, now that my presonal taste is out of the equation, let's let the math do the talking.POT ODDS:1280:875, or about 1.5 to 1. therefore, you need to win the hand 40% of the time to make this a profitable callHANDS HE COULD HAVE:We can eliminate the possibility that he has a set, a higher 2 pair, or an equal 2 pair, since he did not raise pre-flop. Aces, Kings, Jacks, A/K, or A/J surely would have garnered a pre-flop raise from this aggressive player. I'm not putting him on a straight draw either, since that would just be completely donkish and doesn't fit.Therefore, we can reduce his possible hands down to the following:-A royal flush (Q/10 of clubs)-A flush (suited connectors)-Straight (Q/10)-Flush draw + straight draw (Q:club: or 10:club:)-Two pair, kings and jacks-Stone Bluff (anything else)WAYS TO HAVE EACH HAND:-Royal flush (Q/10 of clubs): 1 way-Flush (5/6 of clubs through 9/10 of clubs or Q/9 of clubs): 6 ways-Straight (Q/10): 15 ways-Flush draw + straight draw (Q:club:/9 through Q/K or 10:club:/9 through 10/K): 16 ways-Two pair (K/J): 6 ways-Stone bluff (this is a loose player, so we'll give him a 15% chance of a stone bluff, which works out to about 7 ways when compared to the rest of the ways.)Total: 51 handsODDS OF BEATING EACH HAND:-Royal Flush: 0%-Flush: 17%-Straight: 17%-Flush draw + straight draw: 58%-Two Pair: 90%-Bluff: 100%ODDS HE HAS EACH HAND:-Royal Flush: 2%-Flush: 12%-Straight: 29%-Straight + flush draw: 31%-Two pair: 12%-Bluff: 14%Multiplying each value of odds he has it by the odds that you'll win gives you your total percentage of winning the hand.RF: 0%F: 2%STR8: 5%FD + SD: 18%2P: 10%Bluff: 14%TOTAL WINNING ODDS: 50%You will win the pot almost exactly half of the time, which makes a call reasonable. However, this number is completely dependant on how likely you think it is that he is bluffing. If you think the odds that he is bluffing are higher, you should call for sure. If you think the odds that he is bluffing are lower, it becomes a more likely fold. Also, if you want to factor the possibility of an ace with a weak club kicker or a bare top pair into the mix, the odds lean even farther toward calling.The odds of winning are 1:1, while the pot odds are 1.5:1. This makes a call a profitable play in the long run, and I believe it would make sense. The odds are very close, though, so folding is not a bad play either. Still, I say call. You are beat often, but the odds are good.

[NarSARSsist 0]

Are we ever gonna get an answer? lol

[flyingmoose 0]

I call, quickly. Overbet all-ins in low-limit online tournaments mean draws almost every time.EDIT: I should add that I multi-table MTTs, but can only effectively play 4-6 at a time. So I'm willing to take some risks against hands like the naked Qc here, because I would rather have a decent stack at all my tables and increase my total time equity than stay out of trouble in an attempt to increase each individual tournament's equity.

[therrinn 0]

I'd call...I think that the most likely thing that he's is KJ. I actually had a nearly identical thing happen to me, flop was AKJ rainbow. I had AK. Bet out, got reraised all-in, called, villain had Q10. I just didn't think he'd call my raise from utg with that hand, but it seems more likely in this situation. He could have the straight and be protecting it against a flush draw. Still, I think I'd call here.

[Snowman 0]

...TOTAL WINNING ODDS: 50%You will win the pot almost exactly half of the time, which makes a call reasonable. However, this number is completely dependant on how likely you think it is that he is bluffing. If you think the odds that he is bluffing are higher, you should call for sure. If you think the odds that he is bluffing are lower, it becomes a more likely fold. Also, if you want to factor the possibility of an ace with a weak club kicker or a bare top pair into the mix, the odds lean even farther toward calling.The odds of winning are 1:1, while the pot odds are 1.5:1. This makes a call a profitable play in the long run, and I believe it would make sense. The odds are very close, though, so folding is not a bad play either. Still, I say call. You are beat often, but the odds are good.

Thanks for a great reply. I would factor in an ace with a club too, to get slightly better odds.He had almost the worst possible hand though, QT with the T of clubs, so I was drawing very slim. But I still think it was the right decision.Thanks to everyone for the replies.