how many times is this going to happen?

[SuicideKing86 0]

Lately all I have been playing a SNGs and I did real well, but in the last 3 days over 15 SNGs I have been knocked out with the best hand and got killed by the turn or river. My QQ lose's to J6 off and every possible bad beat I can get. I admit my JJ ran into KK and I lost, thats poker and I deserved to lose hands like that. But this is making me crazy. Ohh yeah the tourney before this I floped a straight, got called by a guy who picked up trip 8s, river came a 8. I know its poker, but how long is this going to keep happening? lol Stage #248543489 Tourney ID 53249 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit $15 - 2005-11-25 13:51:22 (ET)Table: 4311734 (Real Money) Seat #7 is the dealerSeat 1 - SHAW1974 ($1545 in chips)Seat 2 - EL_REY ($3045 in chips)Seat 4 - MOJO 75 ($3135 in chips)Seat 5 - SHELLIS_MAN ($1395 in chips)Seat 7 - IBANEZ8185 ($1455 in chips)Seat 8 - LAURIEDEE ($1440 in chips)Seat 9 - HAIFISCH ($1485 in chips)LAURIEDEE - Posts small blind $15HAIFISCH - Posts big blind $30*** POCKET CARDS ***Dealt to IBANEZ8185 [10s 10c] SHAW1974 - Calls $30EL_REY - FoldsMOJO 75 - Calls $30SHELLIS_MAN - Calls $30IBANEZ8185 - Calls $30LAURIEDEE - FoldsHAIFISCH - Checks*** FLOP *** [9c Ah 10h]HAIFISCH - ChecksSHAW1974 - ChecksMOJO 75 - ChecksSHELLIS_MAN - ChecksIBANEZ8185 - Bets $90HAIFISCH - FoldsSHAW1974 - Raises $420 to $420MOJO 75 - FoldsSHELLIS_MAN - FoldsIBANEZ8185 - All-In(Raise) $1335 to $1425SHAW1974 - Calls $1005*** TURN *** [9c Ah 10h] [As]*** RIVER *** [9c Ah 10h As] [Jd]*** SHOW DOWN ***SHAW1974 - Shows [9h Ad] (Full house, aces full of nines) IBANEZ8185 - Shows [10s 10c] (Full house, tens full of aces) SHAW1974 Collects $3015 from main pot*** SUMMARY ***Total Pot($3015)Board [9c Ah 10h As Jd]I realize he should have called with his 2 pair. And the reason for my early push was because he was very agressive and I was 90% sure he would call. I realize this beat isnt THAT horrible, but I dont feel like searching for my other bad beats.

[copernicus 0]

when you find them, put them in the bad beat forum, where you wont get much sympathy either, but you wont get flamed for posting them here.As far as you general question..it can go on for a long time. Malmuth talks about mean and variance in ring games, and demonstrates that a live ring game player that has a true mean that is profitable can still go as long as two years to have a 90% (or maybe it was 95%) probability of showing a profit.If you put that in the context of tournaments, which have larger variance due to the discrete nature of the prize structure (compared to the nearly continuous range of profits/losses...ie tournaments are more "granular"), you can go quite a while without showing tournament profits.I have been in a MTT slump for the entire month, my last win...perhaps prophetically lol, was a satellite for an entry to the HL/AD camp next week.Thankfully SnGs have fueled my buyins for the MTTs, and an amazingly soft PL Omaha game has actually made me think I can play at least some cash games.Cant fault the push here. Its a dangerous board, but you are almost certainly ahead with the set, and with his raise its clear that Shaw is going to play. What may be a little weak is the flat call on the button. You have position in the hand, and 3 chasers to a cheap flop is rarely good in tournament. Thats what gives the "crazy players" the chance to be crazy. With 3 limpers I would put in a solid raise with the 1os and take the pot down there.

[SuicideKing86 0]

when you find them, put them in the bad beat forum, where you wont get much sympathy either, but you wont get flamed for posting them here.As far as you general question..it can go on for a long time. Malmuth talks about mean and variance in ring games, and demonstrates that a live ring game player that has a true mean that is profitable can still go as long as two years to have a 90% (or maybe it was 95%) probability of showing a profit.If you put that in the context of tournaments, which have larger variance due to the discrete nature of the prize structure (compared to the nearly continuous range of profits/losses...ie tournaments are more "granular"), you can go quite a while without showing tournament profits.I have been in a MTT slump for the entire month, my last win...perhaps prophetically lol, was a satellite for an entry to the HL/AD camp next week.Thankfully SnGs have fueled my buyins for the MTTs, and an amazingly soft PL Omaha game has actually made me think I can play at least some cash games.Cant fault the push here. Its a dangerous board, but you are almost certainly ahead with the set, and with his raise its clear that Shaw is going to play. What may be a little weak is the flat call on the button. You have position in the hand, and 3 chasers to a cheap flop is rarely good in tournament. Thats what gives the "crazy players" the chance to be crazy. With 3 limpers I would put in a solid raise with the 1os and take the pot down there.

Sorry about not putting this in the bad beat forum, i wasnt thinking all that clear at the timeBut limping in I dont think was all that weak due to how agressive the table was early on. This took place about 8-9 hands in, and there was crazy action. I would have raised to 120 if it was a tighter table and later on, if I didnt hit a set or saw undercards I was going to fold. There was a guarentee that he was not going to fold if I raised to 120, I think he went all in and showed A7. Yeah these are $2.20 and $1.15 SNGs :oops:

[copernicus 0]

Your statement that it was an aggressive table is why I would bet the Ts. If its limped around to you on an agressive table it shows a lot of drawing hands and no real strength, and maybe a late call just for the odds. You have to make them pay for the draws. If you can get heads up someone calling with A9o you should be happy to get your money in with the best of it.You cant lament that youre getting beat when you give the table reason to chase..someone is going to catch something you dont like, whether its a $1.10 or a $11o.

[LPY2005 0]

Just take comfort in the fact that you are getting your money as the favorite. It is possible to have pocket aces against pocket kings 5 times in a row and lose everyone, that's just bad luck. Luck is part of poker. The thing about bad luck is that it's just short term, where as continuing to make correct decisions is long term. Keep making good decisions. It may be days, weeks, or even months, but your luck will turn.Another thing that may help is keeping track of everytime you are a dog going in (even a small one) and win. We remember the bad beats we take much longer than the ones we give.

[Hubris 0]

I play tournaments almost all the time as well, and believe me, it will cause you to have giant fluxes in your bankroll. You can go without winning a tournament for a long time. Tournament's don't just take luck with cards, it takes luck with the timing of which you get those cards in relation to your opponents, the chipstacks, the payout structure of the tournament, the size of the blinds and getting lucky along the way with cards to boot. So naturally no matter how you great you play, you rely on alot more factors (factors that are out of your control) that allow you to win. Mind you, when you play well, and those moments do fall into place, you'll have a great shot at finally chalking up a big win and hopefully seeing a great payout for it. Winning tournaments are very hard, but its something that's do-able. And there's just something great about getting a lump sum of money all at once that you can't beat.Some days for me (like today) are filled with nothing but bad beat after bad beat. I've had streaks go for as long as 7 days before I even moneyed in a small SnG. Right now I'm running on a streak where I hadn't won a MTT for nearly a month (but before this month I had won two within one week!)Just keep in mind, in Dan Harrington's book, he said that top players only expect a tournament buy-in to be worth double what they pay (so a $1,000 buy in is worth $1,000 extra in profit). He says that figure grows more the larger the skill gap between you and your opponent's is though (he says a top player should expect about 7 times his buy-in for profit in a more unskilled field). So, like me, you're probably not a top player, so naturally making a big profit off of tournament play is very very hard.Oh yeah, one more thing I would like to add. When you play alot of tournaments, you will see WAY more bad beats than you would playing cash games. People in tournaments consistently get desperate, or consistently interpret their opponents as being desperate. So you always see alot more situations where it's a good hand vs. a bad hand. Naturally, you are going to encounter alot of all-ins, which allows for alot more bad beats to be played out. How often do you see someone in a cash game going all in preflop with Q-10 offsuit? Not that often, but when you play tournaments, I can guarantee you'll see that (or something similar) in every tournament you encouter. And that just allows for you to see Q-1o offsuit beat hands like AK, QQ or 10-10 more often. People in tournaments are forced into action all the time, so you're going to see alot of shit hit the fan.