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raising gutshots.


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MP3 is 32/14/2.37 (same guy from my other 2 posts). Still only 25 minutes into the session, but I'm starting to respect this guys play a bit.Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cxPreflop: Hero is BB with 6:spade:, 5:spade:. 3 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.Flop: (8.40 SB) 9:diamond:, 7:spade:, 7:heart: (4 players)Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls.Turn: (6.20 BB) 4:club: (2 players)Hero bets, MP3 calls.River: (8.20 BB) K:diamond: (2 players)Hero bets, Hero folds.Final Pot: 11.20 BBMainly concerned with the flop raise, but comments on other streets are welcome.

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This looks like an isolation raise, which I don't think you want to do with a gutshot. Can't say I like it.

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You check-raised into 3 opponents.One of them raised preflop.The other two may have checked a strong hand into the preflop raiser.Your raise may result in minimizing the field with a drawing hand.You are committing yourself to leading the turn and the river out of position with very few outs.What is the motivation for the raise?--cnm

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I like the flop raise, provided MP3 would make a continuation bet with overcards in that spot - from his stats it appears that he would.I think the river bet is a spew - there's nothing MP3 could be drawing at, so if he was going to fold, he'd have folded on the turn.

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You check-raised into 3 opponents.One of them raised preflop.The other two may have checked a strong hand into the preflop raiser.Your raise may result in minimizing the field with a drawing hand.You are committing yourself to leading the turn and the river out of position with very few outs.What is the motivation for the raise?--cnm
I think you either have to raise or fold on the flop, since you don't really have odds to simply call and chase the gutshot, particularly with the threat of a check-raise behind you and the fact that the board is already paired.I like the raise because it gives you a great chance to buy the pot on the turn if the preflop raiser has only overcards. Plus you do have outs if he decides to call down, and raising cleans up possible 6 and 4 outs if it clears the field.Your raise should look like it's potentially very strong, given that you're raising into the field. Unfortunately, here we apparently ran into a real hand - I'm guessing MP3 must've had KK (or possibly 99), the way the hand played out.
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A few thoughts:1) Folding is out of the question IMO. I have 5.5 good outs (hands that are unlikely to be beaten.) Getting a bit over 9:1 on my call, a fold can't be right. The question is, whether raising/calling is better.2) Villian could have a high pp. However, it's more likely that he has two overcards. His flop bet is usually a semi-bluff. One way for me to combat this, it to semi-bluff his semi-bluff when I have a drawing hand (TOP).3) The two other players are unlikely to have hit this flop. They probably have higher gutshots/overcards/underpair, in which case it is very beneficial for me to raise here. 4) If I just call, I will be relying on my 5.5 outs to win. I will probably have to fold the turn UI. All in all, my winning chances are about 14% if I just call. If however, I raise and manage to get the pot HU, I would now have 11.5 outs to beat villian (assuming he has overs). Based on outs alone, my winning chances have now increased to 43%. In fact, my winning chances are now even higher because of my FE.

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This looks like an isolation raise, which I don't think you want to do with a gutshot.  Can't say I like it.
especially with the paired board. you could be drawing to a made hand and even the nuts if he has a full house. i dont like the post flop play. just fold and look for a better spot
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This looks like an isolation raise, which I don't think you want to do with a gutshot. Can't say I like it.
especially with the paired board. you could be drawing to a made hand and even the nuts if he has a full house. i dont like the post flop play. just fold and look for a better spot
This is extremely unlikely. In fact, the board pairing makes it less likely that I am drawing against a made hand.And folding is out of the question IMO. You can always look for better spots by just waiting for aces all the time. However, you cannot pass up on every profitable opportunity or you'll never make money. Calling here is definetly profitable. I'm just trying to figure out if raising is more profitable.
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I don't mind it against this opponent. With a 14% PFR stat, you will win this on the turn uncontested a lot when you represent trips or a 9. The river bet is essential at that point; you aren't going to win with a check. Sucks that he hit one of his high cards. I doubt he had KK...he 3-bets KK on the flop, or at least raises on a safe turn (unless you've been bluffing a lot this session, in which case he might just let you bet).

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I agree that folding the flop would be weak, but I don't think calling is much better; I really think raising is the clear play.I still hate the river bet. After villain calls the turn, I think there's virtually no chance he folds to the river bet. (Unless you have seen him fold rivers in similar spots before, in a case where he would not have had the right odds to draw at overcards (which could easily not even be good), and could not have had any other draw, but called the turn to test your resolve, and then folded the river when you bet again. I think very few opponents will play this way, and the K hitting the river doesn't help your chances either.)

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nhnot 100% on the river without knowing his calling down standards, but given that you're beginning to respect him I'd say it works often enough for it to be good.You check/calling the turn if MP1 or 2 calls?

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This may seem obvious, but how about calling the flop, checking the turn and if he leads out then throw in a raise. This represents the 7 very well and he might make the mistake of checking the turn behind you giving you two free looks for your gutshot. IMO this is the optimal play.

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This may seem obvious, but how about calling the flop, checking the turn and if he leads out then throw in a raise. This represents the 7 very well and he might make the mistake of checking the turn behind you giving you two free looks for your gutshot. IMO this is the optimal play.
This isn't a bad idea. I also get to see how my other opponents react on the flop and can play the turn accordingly.I think it would have been better for me to just call on this flop and see what developes.
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