a blackjack question......

[akishore 0]

so, i normally stay away from blackjack. however, the system of hedging bets popped into my mind earlier tonight and i thought i'd try it.party's blackjack system: it's 8 decks that are shuffled after 10% of the cards have been dealt. dealer hits soft 17. you can double on any two cards. double after split is not allowed. they use an early surrender. finally, the min bet is $1 while the max is $200.so my system:bet $1 anytime you are starting or just won the last hand.if lose, bet $2.if lose, bet $5.if lose, bet $10.if lose, bet $25.if lose, bet $50.if lose, bet $100.if lose, bet $200.(i know that it's normally doubled and no more, e.g. 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, ... but it's much easier to bet $5 instead of $4, or $10 instead of $8, etc., since you bet by clicking on different denomination chips. and honestly, it doesn't make much difference either way since my max number of bets is going to be 8 either way.)so, my profits after each "winning streak" will be between +$1 and +$7.for me to go "broke", i.e. lose my max bet and not be able to hedge it again, i would have to lose 8 hands in a row. the chances of this are slightly less than 0.5%.(as a side note, i am playing perfect blackjack using a customized table, so you don't have to worry about that. fwiw, the house edge at party is about 0.18%)so, this system almost seems "too easy", if that's the term i'm looking for. i mean, yes it's a little scary betting $200 on one hand, but chances are i won't get to that. i.e. if my bankroll is sufficiently bigger than ~ $400 (it's considerably bigger, that's not a problem), my risk of ruin is fairly small.i'm just wondering if i'm missing something. i mean, i know hedging systems are looked upon as really dangerous and whatnot, but with a min/max range of $200 or 8 bets, is this one really that bad?comments/input appreciated. thanks!aseem

[teneight 1]

niceeeee. i might d/l party poker and try this system myselfthanks a lot

[akishore 0]

just avoid tilt like the plague. nothing sucks more than adding a little "extra" money when you've lost five hands in a row only to see it disappear when the dealer is dealt blackjack. :oops: aseem

[ThatPkrGuy 0]

DONT DO IT!!!YOU WILL LOSE...The system you are refering to is called the progressive betting system.First off think of the risk versus reward.You bet 1 and loseso next time you bet 2 win now your up 1so you drop back to one and start over...you keep doing this over and over but the most you are winning is 1 or 2 bucks when in the long run you will be risking roughly 100 or 200 to make 1 or 2 bucks...not a good situation.Plus not being able to double after splits AND the dealer hitting a soft 17 is huge in the casinos favor..adds another 2% to their already 2% edge.The ability to surrender is good but only if you know exactly what to surrender and when to do it.Plus them only playing through 10% of 8 decks which is:52 x 8 x .1 = 41.6...so 42 cardsaveraging 3 cards per hand and 3 cards per dealers hand 6 cards per orbitthats only 7 orbits, which is not enough to allow you to get an advantage by counting cards...Its a losing proposition man...save your money and just stick with poker

[ThatPkrGuy 0]

just avoid tilt like the plague. nothing sucks more than adding a little "extra" money when you've lost five hands in a row only to see it disappear when the dealer is dealt blackjack. :oops:    aseem

LOL i was too late....sorry for your misfortune man...hopefully you learned something

[charder30 0]

ur employing negative progression and its not really smart unless ur playin a BJ tourney, becaus your eventually gonna go broke and lose the 200 and i also advise u to not get lazy and excatly double ur bets as i think that is more EV+, i think u should look into some other systems such as 1-3-2-6 or postive progressioncheck this out for more info on 1326http://www.ildado.com/1326_system.htmlhope this is some help

[PimpRock 0]

I am sure it is a losing proposition in the longrun but I am conditioned to hate pit games... But gl man and I for one, would be be very interested in hearing about your progress.

[Neo 0]

This system is one of the quickest ways to the poor house there is. I've seen it applied to roulette and horse racing in various forms too. It will break you eventually. As for the blackjack on party poker, avoid it like the plauge. There is a built in bias for the house which is more than you would normally see in a live game. It will clean out your bankroll in next to no time.

[ThatPkrGuy 0]

ur employing negative progression and its not really smart unless ur playin a BJ tourney, becaus your eventually gonna go broke and lose the 200 and i also advise u to not get lazy and excatly double ur bets as i think that is more EV+, i think u should look into some other systems such as  1-3-2-6 or postive progressioncheck this out for more info on 1326http://www.ildado.com/1326_system.htmlhope this is some help

OR...just stay away from online casino Black Jack all together...Its just not a good proposition. Its very difficult to beat the blackjack tables in a live casino were you can keep a running count and a true count based on the number of cards seen and then change you bets accordingly. But in a situation were they only deal through 10% of 8 decks you CANNOT gain an edge!If you really wanna get into blackjack pick up Thorps book and learn how to play as a team...3 man teams work ok if you know how to do it...but 5 man teams are better :-)

[iggymcfly 0]

Yeah, it's a lot easier to lose with that system than you think. Trust me, streaks of 8 losses (or wins) in a row are a lot easier to come by than you think.You can use the double bet thing occasionally to get yourself out of trouble if your frustrated and want to book a win no matter what the cost, but in the long run, that strategy's going to crush you.

[charder30 0]

ur employing negative progression and its not really smart unless ur playin a BJ tourney, becaus your eventually gonna go broke and lose the 200 and i also advise u to not get lazy and excatly double ur bets as i think that is more EV+, i think u should look into some other systems such as  1-3-2-6 or postive progressioncheck this out for more info on 1326http://www.ildado.com/1326_system.htmlhope this is some help

OR...just stay away from online casino Black Jack all together...Its just not a good proposition. Its very difficult to beat the blackjack tables in a live casino were you can keep a running count and a true count based on the number of cards seen and then change you bets accordingly. But in a situation were they only deal through 10% of 8 decks you CANNOT gain an edge!If you really wanna get into blackjack pick up Thorps book and learn how to play as a team...3 man teams work ok if you know how to do it...but 5 man teams are better :-)

I agree but u cant stop the man from playin, so if he does, lets hope he makes some money

[charder30 0]

o and dont even think about counting cards on party, it wont work! :-)

[theredpill99 0]

If you want to play blackjack, do it at a casino and if you are too young, then you have to wait because most online poker blackjack games are unbeatable except for one. The only blackjack game that is beatable online is the one made by Boss Media I think. It's a single deck blackjack game. It's located at the Cowboy casino or something like that. I can't remember the exact name. Your edge is very small about .11 % and you don't count cards, you just play perfect basic strategy. BTW, you need a humongous bankroll and lots of patience to actually get the edge. I did a lot of analysis on it and found that in order for you to be ahead 65 % of the time by the end of one month, you need play roughly 60,000 hands or something. I did a whole bunch on it but that was a long time ago.

[akishore 0]

thanks for the advice.i totally understand that this system is high-risk-low-reward, but i am not certain that it is quite -EV. is a streak of 8 losses really as common as people are saying it is?and, as already stated, i am playing perfect blackjack, so i do know when to surrender and when to double/split/etc. that's not an issue. also, the 2% edge remark is off... it's about 0.18%, still considerably high, but not nearly as high as 2%.i am strongly reconsidering, though. i will read up on the 1-3-2-6 system later, thanks for the link!aseem

[Actuary 3]

Aseem.you are smarter than this.Horrible strategy.Suckers strategy.btw, it cost me $600+ on my Honeymooon.That was before I realize how obviously flawed it was in the long run.Just look at a markov chain model of this. (I think that's what I mean)

[HotSteven 0]

This is just off the head here, so don't hold me accountable for this. You said the odds of losing 8 in a row are about .5% (I don't feel like checking you here). Assuming that's correct, you should average a win of $1.something (since you increase the bet, another calculation I'm not interested in doing right now) 199 times and then fail miserably once and lose the full $200. It sounds like you should be almost breaking even here? Tell me if there's something I am missing.

[ThatPkrGuy 0]

thanks for the advice.i totally understand that this system is high-risk-low-reward, but i am not certain that it is quite -EV. is a streak of 8 losses really as common as people are saying it is?and, as already stated, i am playing perfect blackjack, so i do know when to surrender and when to double/split/etc. that's not an issue. also, the 2% edge remark is off... it's about 0.18%, still considerably high, but not nearly as high as 2%.i am strongly reconsidering, though. i will read up on the 1-3-2-6 system later, thanks for the link!aseem

This is true, i was just tossing out a small figure but basically it is an edge that they have over you. And streaks of 8 are not all two uncommon. I played casino BJ for just over a year with a small team and even when playing at a table were you have the optimum edge its still not easy to make money. But you will make money over time if you can gain the edge.You seem intelligent so do with your money what you will but as we have all said before...not a good idea.

[Actuary 3]

thanks for the advice.i totally understand that this system is high-risk-low-reward, but i am not certain that it is quite -EV. is a streak of 8 losses really as common as people are saying it is?aseem

I GUARANTEE IT IS.I'll b e glad to give you the math.BTW, isn't it 7 losses in a row? for the $200 wager.Anyway, the limits could be 1 to $500000000000 and it's still a bad long term strategy.It works for a few hours..or longer...usually.

[akishore 0]

genuinely, thanks for the advice everyone. i'm not trying to be stubborn, i'm really just trying to understand.actuary, can you explain why it's -EV with a min/max range of something as monstrous as $1/$100000000?aseem

[Actuary 3]

I'm dead tired..but you can do it.Do a probability (decision) tree.1. Win $1, Lose $1.2. If Lose, Bet $23. If Lose, Bet $5...etc.Take the probablilty at each point of losing as 50.0001 %..(or whatever it is over 50%. ) and multiply by the current bet...Sum up the total tree Expected Value.Lets use x as Probility of Loss.Bet $1:$1 Profit (1-x) = (1-x) * 1if lose Bet $2$1 Profit x*(1-x) = (x - x^2 ) * 1if lose Bet $5$2 Profit x*x*(1-x) = (x^2 - x^3) * 2if lose Bet $10$2 Profit x*x*x*(1-x) = (x^3 - x^4) * 2if lose Bet $25$7 Profit x*x*x*x*(1-x) = (x^4 - x^5) * 7if lose Bet $50$7 Profit x*x*x*x*x*(1-x) = (x^5 - x^6) * 7if lose Bet $100$7 Profit x* x*x*x*x*x*(1-x) = (x^6 - x^7) * 7if lose Bet $200$7 Profit x*x* x*x*x*x*x*(1-x) = (x^7 - x^8 ) * 7if lose$393 loss x*x*x*x*x*x*x*x = x^8 * -393Add all the lines up..you get:EV = 1 + x^2 + 5 * x^4 - 400 * x^8if x =0.5, then EV = 0if x > 0.5 Ev < 0if x = 0, EV = 1if x = 1, EV = -393.It all works out.Bad Strategy.You can continue the tree for any amount of bets...it's always -EV if the house has any edge on each hand.oh. well, I guess I wasn't that tired after all.

[Guest]

Playing as a team can work. It has worked BIG TIME in the past.But, only live in casinos that allow it.After the MIT students kept taking Vegas for millions and millions playing as a team they changed the rules.NEW RULES in many casinos:1. You cannot make a maximum bet on your first bet(this eliminates the team advantage of players sitting at the table betting the minimum counting cards until the count is heavilly in the players favor)2. They have a lot of automatic shufflers in casinos now. The cards are constantly shuffled. Therefore, card counting goes out the window.3. At best you are approx. a 7% favorite in BJ with a team with perfect counting strategy/betting strategy/deck not being shuffled until over 70% is gone.Stick with poker.If you want a MEGA +++++++++EV game then play Omaha HI/LO. There are so many donkeys I cannot keep track of them all. If you play perfect hi/lo poker you are a 65/35 favorite. It is amazing.You can actually have a 0% chance of losing a hand in hi/lo and still have people calling you. I LOVE IT!!!NL Hi lo is even more fun than PL. But, the BR must be deep in case of neg. variance.The neg. variance is not nearly as bad is hi/lo as it is in NLHE.I hope this helps.

[kouta43 0]

without going into the maths, it does not matter what your betting amounts are, you are playing against an edge, so no matter what system you use, if it does not affect the edge, will always be -EV.For example, say roulette was numbered 0-400. if you put money on all numbers except for 2, you have a .5% chance of going bust (assuming you can only afford to play once if you lose). While this is very small, it is still mathematically possible, and the gain you make from winning does not match the probability that you will go bust 1/200 spins.I really like my analogy there, i really hate the way i explained it. im tired, i think i will have another go tomorrow.

[semaj550 0]

First off, I calculated the house edge on this game to be 0.8285% presuming that you cannot resplit to more than 2 hands. Even if you can resplit to a total of 4 hands the edge is 0.7945%. This is significantly worse than the standard 8-deck game where the house has an edge of 0.4330%. I don't know where you'd find a blackjack game where you give up an edge of only 0.18% but I guarantee you that Party Poker won't offer it and their player-unfriendly rules certainly do not lower the edge. So EVEN IF your betting system worked (which it won't for reasons I will get into later) you have to overcome an edge almost twice as high as a standard blackjack game which is easily available elsewhere on the internet.Second, as it has been pointed out your betting system is called the Martingale System. It is characterized by a set betting unit which is doubled on all hands following a loss and the bet is reverted to the original unit following a win. The system revolves completely around these series of losses. Where this system fails is that the player does not have a large enough bankroll and the house will usually not permit a large enough bet to cover the event that you lose several hands in a row. Once in a while you will hit this "wall" where you are unable to place the appropriate bet and you incur a monumental loss. Since expectations in gambling follow the law of large numbers it is deceivingly easy to think that your chances of losing 8 hands in a row is almost impossible. The fact is, in the long, it will only happen with a very low expected frequency but in this experiment you did not have the bankroll to sustain you into the long run (I also doubt you were planning to play millions or billions of hands of blackjack in order to realize the law of large numbers). For a more complete discussion on the demerits of the Martingale system see:http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems.htmlOn betting systems in general. A betting system cannot work for the simple fact that everytime you place a $1 bet in the game you are giving Party Poker roughly 8.3 cents. There is no way around this except for short-term variation. If your luck runs well you will make money, if your luck runs worse you will give them more than 8.3 cents out of every dollar bet. Over 1 trillion hands you will give them 0.8285% of the total amount of money you wagered over those 1 trillion hands. A brief, yet good, discussion on the law of large numbers, accompanied by mathematical proofs, can be found at:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbersBetting systems cannot change your loss % they can only create volitility in the dollar amount of your win/loss. They do this, generally, by increasing the total $ amount wager in a given session. If you played 500 hands betting $10/hand you would bet a total of $5,000 in a session. If you used the Martingale System, played 500 hands and used $10 as your betting unit you would bet *at least* $5,000 and that assumes you win every single hand. If you lose one hand you would have bet $5,010 and every additonal lost hand causes that amount to go up. Larger total amount wagered -> larger total DOLLAR AMOUNT won or lost. Sure you *could* win more money by using a betting system but you could lose more too. It's simply because a betting system causing you to wager more money than if you picked and stuck to a flat bet amount.

[akishore 0]

the advice in this thread has been fabulous. a hearty thanks to everyone who replied. you convinced me. :wink: aseem

[QuietConfidence 0]

Never play Black Jack to make money, it's impossible without a team and card counting.