probability of getting aksuited vs. aa

[lordofelt 0]

I was in the casino the other day waiting for my 1-2 NL seat to open up and decided to take a walk through the pit games section. I was watching some Holdem type house game with a friend of mine and didn't really get all the facts but basically you got 2 holecards and a board. Anyways my question stems from the fact that their was a bonus bet that paid 20-1 for AKsuited and 30-1 for pocket Aces. My friend and I debated which was harder to get dealt. I said that AKsuited was harder to get dealt since their was only 4 combinations of it in the deck but 6 combinations of AA. He said that AA was harder because u had to catch one of 4 cards whereas AKsuited you had 8 cards you can hit on the first card. I then said that even though u only have 4 cards for AA you then have 3 ways to make AA when u hit an A but only one way to make AKsuited when u hit an A or K so it was 12 ways (4x3) for AA and 8 ways (8x1) for AKsuited. I think I'm right but was looking to see if my logic made sense.By the way I am aware regardless that AA is much stronger than AKsuited so please avoid flaming me over this.

[THE ACE IS BACK 0]

AK suited is harder to get!!!!

[bobbywithani 0]

AK suited is harder to get!!!!

[RuffRidr 0]

"Sooted" is harder. Your reasoning is solid.Carry on.--RuffRidr

[Ebonwoulfe 0]

Hmm doesn't it go something like this:AK suitedYou have to catch 8 out of 52 cardsThen you have to catch 1 out of 51 cardsfor:8/52 * 1/51 = .00301, or .3% of the timeAA4 out of 523 out of 514/52 * 3/51 = .00452, or .45% of the timePokerTracker tells me that I have AA106/24255 = .00437And AK suited65/24255 = .00268So the percentages work out correctly

[Guest Anonymous]

So the percentages work out correctly

Yes they do, and even a 30:1 sidebet is a waste of money.Is this Sklansky's game you're talking about? "WPT All-in", or something along those lines?

[lordofelt 0]

Ebonwoulfe wrote: So the percentages work out correctly Yes they do, and even a 30:1 sidebet is a waste of money. Is this Sklansky's game you're talking about? "WPT All-in", or something along those lines?

I think it was the WPT game, I was just watching and wasn't paying all that much attention. Thanks for the help though. I LOVE BEING RIGHT!!

[mrdannyg 274]

Hmm doesn't it go something like this:AK suitedYou have to catch 8 out of 52 cardsThen you have to catch 1 out of 51 cardsfor:8/52 * 1/51 = .00301, or .3% of the timeAA4 out of 523 out of 514/52 * 3/51 = .00452, or .45% of the timePokerTracker tells me that I have AA106/24255 = .00437And AK suited65/24255 = .00268So the percentages work out correctly

.00437<.00452 AND.00268<.00301hope you're handling this negative variance well

[pockets 0]

I just looked at it like there are 4 ways to get AK suited:A K A K A K A K There are 6 ways to get AAA A A A A A A A A A A A So AA is likelier.