question on the monty hall problem

[Filesharer 0]

I have a question about this:The three doors dilemma So you think you understand gambling odds, eh? Well, try this... Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind each of the other two, a goat. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host opens one of the remaining two doors, say No. 3, to reveal a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to stick with the door you've chosen, or do you want to change your mind and go for door No. 2 instead?" Question: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?SoAre (a) and (B) correct?(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.(B) If the host randomly chooses one of the other two doors and there happens to be a goat behind it, your odds are 50/50.

[Beeeeeeeeerains 0]

$20 if you have a hard boiled egg in your purse.

[Nickoli 0]

A is right.B is wrong.Your odds still improve because you have more information. You'll still get a car 2/3 of the time regardless of the hosts knowledge of whether a goat is there or not before he opens the door.Can we not talk about this ever again?

[Petoria 0]

I like people who think they're smart bc they know the answer to this problem.

[Nickoli 0]

I like people who think they're smart bc they know the answer to this problem.

This was a really bad flame.Good try though.

[keith crime 8]

I have a question about this:The three doors dilemma So you think you understand gambling odds, eh? Well, try this... Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind each of the other two, a goat. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host opens one of the remaining two doors, say No. 3, to reveal a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to stick with the door you've chosen, or do you want to change your mind and go for door No. 2 instead?" Question: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?SoAre (a) and (B) correct?(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.(B) If the host randomly chooses one of the other two doors and there happens to be a goat behind it, your odds are 50/50.

what are your odds if monty randomly picks a door and there is a car behind it genius?besides they never gave away cars on the fucking show it was always crap like brohill reclinersmost importantly If Royal, Spade, Mexico, and Idaho went to the show what would their costumes bemy choices Ron - A big tube of lipstickRoyal - A kosher salamiSpade - Richard SimmonsIdaho - Nicki Hilton

[keith crime 8]

I have a question about this:The three doors dilemma So you think you understand gambling odds, eh? Well, try this... Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind each of the other two, a goat. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host opens one of the remaining two doors, say No. 3, to reveal a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to stick with the door you've chosen, or do you want to change your mind and go for door No. 2 instead?" Question: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?SoAre (a) and (B) correct?(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.(B) If the host randomly chooses one of the other two doors and there happens to be a goat behind it, your odds are 50/50.

what are your odds if monty randomly picks a door and there is a car behind it genius?besides they never gave away cars on the fucking show it was always crap like brohill reclinersmost importantly If Royal, Spade, Mexico, and Idaho went to the show what would their costumes bemy choices Ron - A big tube of lipstickRoyal - A kosher salamiSpade - Richard SimmonsIdaho - Nicki Hilton

[Nickoli 0]

Ron - A big tube of lipstickRoyal - A kosher salamiSpade - Richard SimmonsIdaho - Nicki Hilton

That is actually my costume for Halloween.... weird. I'm shaving my legs tomorrow so I have that sort of stubbly look.I also have a used copy of Sweatin the Oldies.I've said too much.

[Jeepster80125 0]

I have a question about this:The three doors dilemma So you think you understand gambling odds, eh? Well, try this... Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind each of the other two, a goat. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host opens one of the remaining two doors, say No. 3, to reveal a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to stick with the door you've chosen, or do you want to change your mind and go for door No. 2 instead?" Question: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?SoAre (a) and (B) correct?(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.(B) If the host randomly chooses one of the other two doors and there happens to be a goat behind it, your odds are 50/50.

I remember the answer from Statistics, but I also remember the answer from Numb3rs, CSI, etc.Try harder next time.

[Royal_Tour 0]

I have a question about this:The three doors dilemma So you think you understand gambling odds, eh? Well, try this... Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind each of the other two, a goat. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host opens one of the remaining two doors, say No. 3, to reveal a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to stick with the door you've chosen, or do you want to change your mind and go for door No. 2 instead?" Question: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?SoAre (a) and (B) correct?(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.(B) If the host randomly chooses one of the other two doors and there happens to be a goat behind it, your odds are 50/50.

I remember the answer from Statistics, but I also remember the answer from Numb3rs, CSI, etc.Try harder next time.

This question is one of the worlds dummest questions of all time, and has nothing to do with any poker related odds calculating.and it annoys me wen people say its "mathematically" proven

[Filesharer 0]

I have a question about this:The three doors dilemma So you think you understand gambling odds, eh? Well, try this... Imagine you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a car; behind each of the other two, a goat. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host opens one of the remaining two doors, say No. 3, to reveal a goat. He says to you, "Do you want to stick with the door you've chosen, or do you want to change your mind and go for door No. 2 instead?" Question: Is it to your advantage to switch your choice of doors?SoAre (a) and (B) correct?(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.(B) If the host randomly chooses one of the other two doors and there happens to be a goat behind it, your odds are 50/50.

I remember the answer from Statistics, but I also remember the answer from Numb3rs, CSI, etc.Try harder next time.

Why are people thinking that I'm trying to prove anything here? I just asked a question to see if anybody could make this a little clearer for me. Jeez. Jeepster + Keith Crime = a pair of jackasses.

[BigPhish 0]

(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.

This implies that the host wants you to get the car. You don't know this. He may be trying to direct you away from the car.Once Door 3 is opened to reveal no car, your odds are 50/50. It doesn't matter which side of the coin you choose, it won't make you any more likely to get the right one.Unless you're getting more information than what's behind door 3 from somewhere you haven't described.

[Nickoli 0]

I'm not going to flame because this took me some time to see when I first saw it... but seriously go read the other thread about it.When you switch you have a 2/3 chance of getting a car.When you stay you only have a 1/3 chance of getting a car.You should always switch.

[checkymcfold 0]

Why are people thinking that I'm trying to prove anything here? I just asked a question to see if anybody could make this a little clearer for me. Jeez. Jeepster + Keith Crime = a pair of jackasses.

i don't think you're trying to "prove" anything.so to answer your original questions in a way that you'll "get it":(a) is right. your reasoning is fine.(B) is wrong, because the monty hall problem is about information, not about the intention of the host.my hand at explaining it in simple terms:when you choose a door, you have a 1/3 shot of picking the car. hence, that you've chosen a goat (that is, that you are "not right") is 2/3. when the host shows you a goat behind one of the other doors, what he's done (intentions are meaningless here) is effectively moved all of that 2/3 chance that you chose "wrong" originally to the one remaining door. whether he did that by accident or not doesn't matter, because the consequence either way is that he gave you more information, and ALL that information can do is conflate that 2/3 chance that you weren't right originally into one door since we're not talking about psychology here. thus, you should always switch.alles klar?

[Filesharer 0]

Why are people thinking that I'm trying to prove anything here? I just asked a question to see if anybody could make this a little clearer for me. Jeez. Jeepster + Keith Crime = a pair of jackasses.

i don't think you're trying to "prove" anything.so to answer your original questions in a way that you'll "get it":(a) is right. your reasoning is fine.(B) is wrong, because the monty hall problem is about information, not about the intention of the host.my hand at explaining it in simple terms:when you choose a door, you have a 1/3 shot of picking the car. hence, that you've chosen a goat (that is, that you are "not right") is 2/3. when the host shows you a goat behind one of the other doors, what he's done (intentions are meaningless here) is effectively moved all of that 2/3 chance that you chose "wrong" originally to the one remaining door. whether he did that by accident or not doesn't matter, because the consequence either way is that he gave you more information, and ALL that information can do is conflate that 2/3 chance that you weren't right originally into one door since we're not talking about psychology here. thus, you should always switch.alles klar?

Cheers. I thought I got it (eventually) but then somebody wrote this in one of the threads.Quote: I completly understand what your saying... but i disagree with it. your odds have CHANGED do to eliminating one of the doors. when i see the goat my odds IMPROVE to 50%. You would be correct if the host had chosen the door with the goat at random. Hint: he didn't.So there you go. Hence the question. Loving the people who berate others about the question.

[checkymcfold 0]

Cheers. I thought I got it (eventually) but then somebody wrote this in one of the threads.Quote: I completly understand what your saying... but i disagree with it. your odds have CHANGED do to eliminating one of the doors. when i see the goat my odds IMPROVE to 50%. You would be correct if the host had chosen the door with the goat at random. Hint: he didn't.So there you go. Hence the question. Loving the people who berate others about the question.

yeah, people like trying to sound smart when they don't know what the hell they're talking about. (not) curiously, this happens more often on poker forums. i've never quite understood how dick-measuring contests serve any purpose on a forum that's supposed to be about helping people learn the game (or in this case, learn mathematical/logical problem solving). anyway, cheers.

[lowwall 0]

Assuming Monty is not out to screw you, you should always switch.Take this step by step. I think we can all agree when you make your initial choice, you've got a 1 in 3 chance that the car is behind your door.So obviously 2/3 of the time, the car will be behind one of the other 2 doors.Now would you be willing to trade your door for BOTH of the other two? This is what Monty is offering.Ignore the opening of the wrong door, remember that Monty had additional information. Since he is not selecting randomly, he has now imparted that information to you.

[Royal_Tour 0]

I'm not going to flame because this took me some time to see when I first saw it... but seriously go read the other thread about it.When you switch you have a 2/3 chance of getting a car.When you stay you only have a 1/3 chance of getting a car.You should always switch.

No this is a theory, its not math.You assume its 2/3 because your original choice was 1/3 but its still 50/50 no matter how you slice it.pick 1 door out of 3, then reveal a wrong door., Now step back and examine, i can stay with this door, or go to door number 2.what is the odds of this?. 50/50 No matter how you slice it Only if monty is being carefull not too show you the correct door, then ur odds are better to switch example:1000 doors, and monty shows u 998 wrong, u should switch obviously.

[mx957 0]

(a) If the host specifically chooses a door that he knows has a goat behind it, you should change.

This implies that the host wants you to get the car. You don't know this. He may be trying to direct you away from the car.Once Door 3 is opened to reveal no car, your odds are 50/50. It doesn't matter which side of the coin you choose, it won't make you any more likely to get the right one.Unless you're getting more information than what's behind door 3 from somewhere you haven't described.

We'll excuse you, you had a note from you mom and therfore were absent on this discussion yesterday. Go check it out and you'll see why it's not 50/50 and why you should always switch. The OP was just being a dullard and trying to stir the pot. He knows the answer he's just messin with everyone.

[keith crime 8]

the point isn't that i'm being obnoxious about it it's that 1. there's already a huge thread on this and 2. the people who were wrong --- very wrong were acting like they were defending the virgin maryroyal theres no difference between 3 doors and 1000 doors switching gives you x-1/xits totally mathematical do it with a friend and see if you win half the time by not choosing -- you wont

[jeff_536 3]

I'm not going to flame because this took me some time to see when I first saw it... but seriously go read the other thread about it.When you switch you have a 2/3 chance of getting a car.When you stay you only have a 1/3 chance of getting a car.You should always switch.

No this is a theory, its not math.You assume its 2/3 because your original choice was 1/3 but its still 50/50 no matter how you slice it.pick 1 door out of 3, then reveal a wrong door., Now step back and examine, i can stay with this door, or go to door number 2.what is the odds of this?. 50/50 No matter how you slice it Only if monty is being carefull not too show you the correct door, then ur odds are better to switch example:1000 doors, and monty shows u 998 wrong, u should switch obviously.

you just contradicted yourself royal. If it's a theory, it has to be applicable on all scales. Therefore, if you think the right play with 1000 doors is to switch, then you have to think it's the right choice with three doors.If you think it's 50-50 with three doors, then what's the difference with 1000..there's two doors left...one of them has the car...one or the other.

[Royal_Tour 0]

I'm not going to flame because this took me some time to see when I first saw it... but seriously go read the other thread about it.When you switch you have a 2/3 chance of getting a car.When you stay you only have a 1/3 chance of getting a car.You should always switch.

No this is a theory, its not math.You assume its 2/3 because your original choice was 1/3 but its still 50/50 no matter how you slice it.pick 1 door out of 3, then reveal a wrong door., Now step back and examine, i can stay with this door, or go to door number 2.what is the odds of this?. 50/50 No matter how you slice it Only if monty is being carefull not too show you the correct door, then ur odds are better to switch example:1000 doors, and monty shows u 998 wrong, u should switch obviously.

you just contradicted yourself royal. If it's a theory, it has to be applicable on all scales. Therefore, if you think the right play with 1000 doors is to switch, then you have to think it's the right choice with three doors.If you think it's 50-50 with three doors, then what's the difference with 1000..there's two doors left...one of them has the car...one or the other.

because monty is cautious to sshow you 998 doors leaving 1 exact door. did u pick the 1 door out of 1000 maybe, but not likely.but in the case of 3 doors, did u pick the right door, its possible, monty has a 50/50 choice to show u 1 wrong door, leaving u with a 50/50 choice to chose the right door after

[keith crime 8]

dude are you really missing this or are you just causing havok no offense if you're seriouswhether you're right or wrong he always has an empty door to show you its exactly the same as with 1000

[Royal_Tour 0]

dude are you really missing this or are you just causing havok no offense if you're seriouswhether you're right or wrong he always has an empty door to show you its exactly the same as with 1000

No., think about it.,you have 1000 doors, if he opens 998 incorrect doors, he had to be cautious as which door not to open, do you see what i mean.

[keith crime 8]

no the question assumes that he knows what is behind every door and that he will always pick an empty onehe's monty he was at rehearsal :-)