DLizzle 0 Posted September 14, 2005 Share Posted September 14, 2005 7 left in a 141 person tourney on Full Tilt. I've been playing pretty tight and just showed a big hand and doubled up to around 25k, 4th best stack i think. The other three short stacks are just under me. Blinds are at 600/1200 with a 100 ante(not positive about ante). I get 8d9d in the sb. EP limps, button limps. Flop is Qd8c2d, giving me a flush draw and mid pair. Now what? Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted September 14, 2005 Share Posted September 14, 2005 I think you want to throw in a bet, because theres a reasonable chance youre in the lead. The first thing I would look at is preserving my own drawing odds to 11 outs. (folding equity probably balances the chances of making a hand and losing). Since your about 40% to hit on two cards (and with the passive table you are probably going to be able to see the river cheaply if you dont hit the turn) you only need 3/2 odds any bet that would kill them is clearly excessive. You need to be able to get away from the hand if a Q comes over the top.Since you cant price yourself out, I would next try and represent a solid hand that is pricing out other draws, which, for the 9 outer flush, means forcing a caller to take worse than 2/1...ie a pot size bet or more. That would mean youve committed 6700...25% of your stack, to middle pair and a draw, and that still seems excessive to me.The third option is a probe bet, which, against 3 other players needs to be a stronger than the typical 30-40% to have any folding equity at all.All of that brings me to a bet on the order of 3000. That portrays some strength coming out of the SB, and if you get a call o you almost certainly need to hit your hand and you have to fold to a raise.The last option, of course, is to check and call. What I dont like about that is that if you hit your flush it is going to be painfully obvious and youre not going to get any action. Leading into the hand on the flop doesnt look like a flush draw, since the top card, the Q is in the flush suit. Link to post Share on other sites
zimmer4141 0 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 I would put out a bet of 3500 on this flop. The pot is about 5500, and you are really making a probe bet. If someone raises, then I would either reraise all in, fold if he doesn't give me good enough odds, or call if he does. This is all dependant on my read of the player. If it is a LAG player, then I would probably reraise all in because I either have the best hand or the best draw. Link to post Share on other sites
Swift_Psycho 1 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 I like checking. There are a lot of good argument for betting out, but let me take a stab here.If there is a bet and a raise, you can just safely fold without putting any more chips in. If just one person bets out, you can then check/raise (likely all in). It represents a ton of strength (more than betting out would) so that you might make the bettor fold and you also will have a bunch of outs (or even be ahead against a higher flush draw) regardless of what hand you are up against. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 I like checking. Â There are a lot of good argument for betting out, but let me take a stab here.If there is a bet and a raise, you can just safely fold without putting any more chips in. Â If just one person bets out, you can then check/raise (likely all in). Â It represents a ton of strength (more than betting out would) so that you might make the bettor fold and you also will have a bunch of outs (or even be ahead against a higher flush draw) regardless of what hand you are up against.I dont want to give a free card to a limper with one or two overcards, and I want to price them out. Link to post Share on other sites
Rocketwadster 0 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 I think you could check to see what happens after you. We don't know anything about your opponents, their stack sizes or the like. All we know is that you just showed a big hand. If you bet out here, this may be perceived by your opponents as you trying to run them over.Based on your reads, and where a bet (from others) comes from, you can call up to about a 1/2 pot-sized bet here IMO and still feel comfortable. Any 8, 9, or diamond improves your hand, and doesnt necessarily help others so much that you have to worry (as the flop cards have a wide spread). Link to post Share on other sites
DLizzle 0 Posted September 15, 2005 Author Share Posted September 15, 2005 first i have to get one thing straight. Against a queen, do i not have 14 outs? (2 eights, 3 nines, and 9 diamonds)? This actually makes me a slight favourite over a queen, coin flip. (51, 49) In this tournament, nearly every hand that had a flop ended up with someone all in. So here's what actually happened next. I check, hoping for a slight chance at a free card which would make my decision much easier, I'm calling anything from one player, and folding to a bet and a call or raise. Player behind me pushes all in, he has a slightly bigger stack than mine, next player folds, I call. Now looking back, I think I should have at least put out a bet, but I can't decide if my call was wrong or not. Link to post Share on other sites
Rocketwadster 0 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 first i have to get one thing straight. Against a queen, do i not have 14 outs? (2 eights, 3 nines, and 9 diamonds)? This actually makes me a slight favourite over a queen, coin flip. (51, 49) In this tournament, nearly every hand that had a flop ended up with someone all in. So here's what actually happened next. I check, hoping for a slight chance at a free card which would make my decision much easier, I'm calling anything from one player, and folding to a bet and a call or raise. Player behind me pushes all in, he has a slightly bigger stack than mine, next player folds, I call. Now looking back, I think I should have at least put out a bet, but I can't decide if my call was wrong or not.the player behind you would be the big blind, woudn't it? being the BB, he could have anything, including a queen 8, queen 2, pocket 8's (pocket queens probably would have raised pre-flop), pocket 2's.Easy fold. Link to post Share on other sites
copernicus 0 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 first i have to get one thing straight. Against a queen, do i not have 14 outs? (2 eights, 3 nines, and 9 diamonds)? This actually makes me a slight favourite over a queen, coin flip. (51, 49) In this tournament, nearly every hand that had a flop ended up with someone all in. So here's what actually happened next. I check, hoping for a slight chance at a free card which would make my decision much easier, I'm calling anything from one player, and folding to a bet and a call or raise. Player behind me pushes all in, he has a slightly bigger stack than mine, next player folds, I call. Now looking back, I think I should have at least put out a bet, but I can't decide if my call was wrong or not.Yes technically the 9s are outs, though I tend to discount their value fairly heavily because they could help fill a straight draw and for them to have much earning potential they have to show up on the turn, so you cant consider them draws to 2 cards. The reasons I would credit them much value on the turn only are because they arent going to play well on the river if any 10-A shows up on the turn, and they have little value at all if a diamond hits on the turn, and diminished value if an 8 hits (yes they would then make a boat, but you probably dont need a boat, so they dont increase your implied odds very signficantly. So if I can count right 28 out of the 43 possible turn cards reduce the river value of 9s, and some of the "okay" 15 turn cards may turn out to be the second pair for the Qs. If you want to consider them 1 out for 2 draws your probably not far off, but in the context of deciding how much to bet on the flop they dont change the decision at all...11 outs are plenty to assure that any bet of yours isnt pricing yourself out.As far as calling the big blinds raise, I think it depends on the prize structure. If the significant increases in prize money are a few spots off I think calling is ok. You are getting something like 29/24 odds if you are behind, which means you need to be about 45% for it to be break even TC wise which you are pretty close to. (dont fall into the trap of thinking that pot odds are a switch where its 100% wrong to call without them, and 100% right to call with them...the EV difference for a few percentage points difference in winning chances is meaningless in the"short run"of your lifetime poker career). So I can easily see playing for doubling up and having a better chance at the higher payouts.If moving up a spot or two is meaningful in prize money then I'm not playing whats likely to be a coinflip. Link to post Share on other sites
mk 11 Posted September 15, 2005 Share Posted September 15, 2005 I would definitely check here with the intention of a c/r all-in if someone bets behind. If no one bets, a free card is great for your hand as well. Link to post Share on other sites
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