InsanityCubed 0 Posted August 14, 2005 Share Posted August 14, 2005 There's something that's really been confusing me in the strategy section. When speaking of calculating outs to make a flush, for example, people will say that you must subtract outs, assuming that some of your suit is in your opponent's hand. This doesn't make sense to me, since if, for example, you assume that 1/4 of your opponent's cards are hearts, you are also assuming that the other 3 aren't. If you now "know" that your opponent has a heart, you subtract it from your outs, but wouldn't you also have to subtract the other cards in your opponent's hand from the total cards? Essentially this would even out the odds, wouldn't it? Every time I see this I feel like I'm missing something, so could someone explain it to me? It might be something horribly obvious and I'll want to slap myself afterwards, but it's really been bugging me.Of course, situations where you read that your opponent definitely has a flush draw are different, since you have a much better picture of your opponent's holding.Thanks Link to post Share on other sites

troutsmart 0 Posted August 15, 2005 Share Posted August 15, 2005 You're correct in a sense. Yes, the cards your opponent holds can be deducted if you are able to deduce them. However, you will be dealing with a different ratio. Example:You hold A K on the button.You and the big blind(a very solid player) see a flop of T 6 K . 2.5BBThe BB checks to you and you bet, he calls. 3.5 BBTurn is the 2 .He checks, you bet, and he check-raises. Let's just look at the option of calling here vs. folding or re-raising. 6.5 BBLet's say you have a dead-on read and are certain your opponent is holding a flush. Normal calculation:Doing the math, we have the 52 cards in the deck - 2(ours)-4 (board) = 46 remaining cards. 46 - 9 (cards that would make us a likely winning flush) = 37. 37 bad cards/9 good cards (outs) = 4.11 to 1.Discounted calculation:We take the 52 cards - 2(ours) - 4 (board) - 2 (opponents hole cards, since we know them to be 2 hearts)= 44 remaining cards. 44 - 7 (7 remaining flush cards in deck)= 37. 37 bad cards/ 7 (outs, adjusted) = 5.29 to 1Either way, it doesn't matter, as you are getting 6.5 to 1 pot odds and are good to go. Link to post Share on other sites

rog 0 Posted August 15, 2005 Share Posted August 15, 2005 There's 3 things I can think of for subtracting outs.The first is a correction for a common newbie math mistake...double counting. Let's say you hold Jh9h and the board reads 10hQc2h. You have 8 outs to the straight, and 9 outs to the flush, but only 13 outs. 15 would be double counting both the Kh and 8h.The second is when you're pretty sure your opponents hold one or more of your outs. You can discount them entirely or to get fancy you can also discount them proportionately to your confidence level. For example if you're 75% sure your opponent has 2 of your outs, you can count them as 1/2 an out instead of 2. Discounted 75% to reflect your confidence level.The third is when you think your outs complete a better hand for someone else. The classic is flush draw vs straight draw. If you have a straight draw but you're pretty sure your opponent has a flush draw, then any outs that make both must be discounted. Again, you can adjust your discount according to your confidence value. If 2 of your outs are "dirty", but you figure they're good about half the time, you can use them as 1 out instead of 2. Link to post Share on other sites

shpaget 0 Posted August 15, 2005 Share Posted August 15, 2005 There's something that's really been confusing me in the strategy section. When speaking of calculating outs to make a flush, for example, people will say that you must subtract outs, assuming that some of your suit is in your opponent's hand. This doesn't make sense to me, since if, for example, you assume that 1/4 of your opponent's cards are hearts, you are also assuming that the other 3 aren't. If you now "know" that your opponent has a heart, you subtract it from your outs, but wouldn't you also have to subtract the other cards in your opponent's hand from the total cards? Essentially this would even out the odds, wouldn't it? Every time I see this I feel like I'm missing something, so could someone explain it to me? It might be something horribly obvious and I'll want to slap myself afterwards, but it's really been bugging me.Of course, situations where you read that your opponent definitely has a flush draw are different, since you have a much better picture of your opponent's holding.ThanksYou need to subtract outs for you that could potentially help someone else to a better hand.eg.You have JdQh.The board is 9c10s4s.You would normally say you have 8 outs (4 kings, 4 eights)...however, two of those outs (Ks or 8s) put 3 spades on the board, so you don't want to count those as outs for you.Another:You have JhQhThe board is 9hKsAh.You have 9 outs to a flush...but the K hearts, though giving you the nut flush, also provides a very ugly board for your hand...count only 8 outs. Link to post Share on other sites

InsanityCubed 0 Posted August 15, 2005 Author Share Posted August 15, 2005 Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I understand subtracting outs when some of your outs will not necessarily make you a winning hand. No problem there. I understand if you have A-K on an 8 high board and you read that your opponent has A-8, you don't have 6 outs. I definitely understand that you're not supposed to count outs twice. My problem is when people are discussing the odds of say, Ah-10h on a board of Kh-7h-2c with 4 players, and people say "well, you have to assume some of your opponents also hold a heart, so you subtract 2 outs", etc. This makes no sense, yet I've seen it several times.Thanks for the responses, but they weren't to the question I was posing, hopefully this will clarify that. Link to post Share on other sites

shpaget 0 Posted August 15, 2005 Share Posted August 15, 2005 Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I understand subtracting outs when some of your outs will not necessarily make you a winning hand. No problem there. I understand if you have A-K on an 8 high board and you read that your opponent has A-8, you don't have 6 outs. I definitely understand that you're not supposed to count outs twice. My problem is when people are discussing the odds of say, Ah-10h on a board of Kh-7h-2c with 4 players, and people say "well, you have to assume some of your opponents also hold a heart, so you subtract 2 outs", etc. This makes no sense, yet I've seen it several times.Thanks for the responses, but they weren't to the question I was posing, hopefully this will clarify that.Then, with that clarification, I've never heard that.I've always read, and been told, and practiced, only counting based solely on what you know....and nothing else.So, I would say it's incorrect...yeah...they could have all 8 hearts...they could have none, and they might have two...and on the same token, all 9 of your hearts could be the bottom 9 cards of the deck....it doesn't matter...you don't know, so for all intents and purposes they are available to you.Besides, if you are discounting those outs, then you also have to discount the number of cards available.See, you're counting 9 outs out of 47 remaining cards....those 47 remaining cards include the 8 cards your 4 opponents have.So, if you were going to arbitrarily remove 2 of your outs, as being in your opponents hands, then you also must remove their 8 cards.So, your new calculation would be 7 outs out of 39 remaining cards.And when you do that you end up with virtually the same odds anyway, so go back to the original practice, and only count outs based on what you know...and what you know is the two cards in your hand, and the three cards on the board (and any possible flashes).The only time I focus on the other players cards, as far as outs, is when I'm trying to calculate how many outs THEY have, when I'm putting two or three opponents on a range of hands, I try to figure out they likelihood of them drawing out to beat me...and that's as far as I go.Even when I am pretty sure what other players have I don't discount those outs, because I don't "know". Besides...you may be able to put a guy on pocket queens...but how often do you hazard a guess about the two suits...and you may put a guy on a flush draw or a straight draw, in a general sense, but you rarely put them on two specific cards.And, for no other reason but to be friendly, count a backdoor flush draw as 2 outs. Link to post Share on other sites

## Recommended Posts

## Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

## Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account## Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now