nlhe multiple all ins - am i the donkey?

[RayPowers 0]

Last night I was at a MTT and the following came up and I am questioning my play. It seems really basic, but there is the harsh reality that I may just be a donkey.I am in the big blind with 6500 or so chips. The blinds are 400/800. The 6500 is what's left AFTER I post the big blind. There are seven people at my table, and we are down to two tables. Payout is only to top three players.First player goes all in for 2600. I read him as a tight player getting frustrated.Fold, Fold. Next Player goes all in for 2100. He is a bad player and overvalues his hands, but I don't expect him to go all in with junk.Fold. Small blind goes all in for 2000. I have no read on this guy. I look down at 9h8h. For me to call is 1800 chips, leaving me with 4700.Do I fold or call and why?Ray

[....Ian.... 0]

i may call here. and try to get lucky

[Rocketwadster 0]

Reasons for calling:You have an M of around 5. You need to start accumulating chips very soon, or run the risk of being blinded to death. After the next hand, you stack will be down to 6100, which won't really change your M, but since it is still low, eevn if you get a good hand in the next round, becuase your stack is low you may get more callers than you would want.Your hand, believe it or not, is one of the best hands to hold against pocket aces (better than pocket kings, queens, etc). You are getting over 4:1 on your hand by calling here. Your hand is also a hand that does well against multiple players.Reasons for folding:After the next hand, you will get to see many hands for free. You MAY pick up a monster and be able to double-up (or better).My play - call in a heartbeat. 8)

[....Ian.... 0]

You have an M of around 5.

can someone who read the book this "M" term is from actually explain what it means instead of quoting it to people who dont.

[Rocketwadster 0]

You have an M of around 5.

can someone who read the book this "M" term is from actually explain what it means instead of quoting it to people who dont.

M is a ratio of your stack to the current antees/blinds...If it is 400/800, you take your stack divided by 1200. 8)

[RayPowers 0]

I did call.I thought my pot odds were pretty good, and the oppotunity to more than double up, plus knock three people out, was excellent. A big thought for me also was that all my outs are live. I expected everyone to have over cards or a pocket pair, giving me a good chance to hit my draw. I think I would be more likely to fold AQ in this situation because my outs were surely taken...Still looking for more advice. I had some friends telling me they thought it was bad so I want to get more opinions. I'll post the results later on today...Ray

[Rocketwadster 0]

I did call.I thought my pot odds were pretty good, and the oppotunity to more than double up, plus knock three people out, was excellent. A big thought for me also was that all my outs are live. I expected everyone to have over cards or a pocket pair, giving me a good chance to hit my draw. I think I would be more likely to fold AQ in this situation because my outs were surely taken...Still looking for more advice. I had some friends telling me they thought it was bad so I want to get more opinions. I'll post the results later on today...Ray

the results dont matter, its how you played it. If you called, you made teh right play IMO. 8)

[JacKingOff_suit 0]

I would definitely call.Total pot before you call, $7900 (1200 blinds + 2600 + 2100 + 2000).The amount you need to call, $1800.Winning a huge pot and becoming the chip lead? PRICELESS.Ok, seriously, 1800:7900 ~= 1:4.4, you are getting the right price for the roughly right odds.The benefits, you can knock out 3 players and become the chiplead (I assume), you can muscle around the table and playing comfortably for the first place. If you miss, you still have 4700 to come back.Yes I am taking an aggressive approach, it may not fit for everyone.

[mk 11]

I like the call for exactly the reasons you described. One of the all-ins ahead of you will often have another (or both) dominated. Your outs are almost certainly live, and you aren't crushed even against three overpairs (you're about a 5:1 dog and you're getting almost 4:1 to call). Totally reasonable gamble imo. I would rather fold AK here than 98s. If one opponent holds AA or KK, your equity is probably in the neighborhood of 5% (depending on the other 2 hands) vs. 18% with 98s.

[RayPowers 0]

the results dont matter, its how you played it.  

True, but I think its like a story without an ending if i don't eventually say what happened. :)Ray

[Rocketwadster 0]

the results dont matter, its how you played it.  

True, but I think its like a story without an ending if i don't eventually say what happened. :)Ray

who cares what happened...i know I won't lose any sleep if I don't find out...lol

[Blink20 0]

This is a very simple math problem and we can use the fun little program pokerstove to figure it out. Thanks jweb for posting the link in that one thread about for those new to posting in strat, I'm probably the only one who hadn't heard about it.Anyway, op, give us a range of hands for each of your opponents, you seemed to have a decent read on each of them. What is the tight utg player pushing in with, and the bad player, and so on....We'll just simply put that range in pokerstove, see how your 89s plays against those possible holdings and if its within the odds, then its the right call.I'm assuming it is, but we can check with 100% certainty :-)

[AceyDeucy 0]

the best explanation of M is from Harrington's second book (this is sounding like Bible school). It was a term devised by Paul "X22" Magriel as a handy shorthand for describing stack size in a tournament.M is the ratio of your stack to the cost of an orbit. In a more handy form, it is your stack divided by the initial pot of blinds/antes.Here, I call like a shot. Big, multiway pot, and you are drawing to a big hand. The call does not do much to adversely change your chip position (you are still "looking to double up"), does not radically change any of the short stack's positions should they win, and gives you a great shot to play for the whole show. And if you win, you are now in terrific shape.Just as a "for instance" I ran your hand against three likely holdings:98h vs. AQhvs. AKo vs. 55. 98h wins 24% of the time.If your flush draw is live you improve to 29%.If I change AK to KK (a much worse scenario) you drop to 19% to win.Even if I change the 55 to 99, your percentage is still 15%.And, for the ultimate worst-case: 99, KK, AQh: 10%In general, you are getting a decent, though not great price to be in terrific position. The value of having those chips at this stage of the tournament, compared to the relatively minor change in your actual position would lead me to call. Plus, even your worst-case, (over pair and dominating pair and dead flush) leaves you reasonably, though not very, live. But the likely cases all leave you in decent shape. And you might be very lucky, and be against something like two small pocket pair and a weak ace, where you would even win a plurality of the hands.

[Smasharoo 0]

Call because of the payout structure.Your chances of hanging around to make the top 3 aren't better forlding here. 4th and 15th pay the same, right?

[Rocketwadster 0]

This is a very simple math problem and we can use the fun little program pokerstove to figure it out. Thanks jweb for posting the link in that one thread about for those new to posting in strat, I'm probably the only one who hadn't heard about it.Anyway, op, give us a range of hands for each of your opponents, you seemed to have a decent read on each of them. What is the tight utg player pushing in with, and the bad player, and so on....We'll just simply put that range in pokerstove, see how your 89s plays against those possible holdings and if its within the odds, then its the right call.I'm assuming it is, but we can check with 100% certainty :-)

It doesnt matter what hands we are against, due to our stack size. 8)

[RayPowers 0]

Since it slowed down, I figured I'd go with the results.I called, although I still have people trying to talk me out of the call, including a pro tournament player. I'm trying to understand his perspective, which seems, at its base, that he beleive you should play Defense in tournaments and worry a lot more about not losing chips than in gaining chips. *shrug*Guy one had AQo, Guy two had Ac6c. I guess he called hoping to isolate and assuming the first guy had trash. Small blind had pocket tens.The board basically bricked, but I caught a 9 along the way, so I won the two side pots to get back 1300 or my total 2600 investment, and the pocket tens took the rest. I felt ok with that result. Two people were out, and I still had 6,000 to work with for the rest of the event. Unfortunately I ran super cold after that, and with the blinds up to 1,000/2,000 I still was at 6,000 and just went all in under the gun, ending in 12th.Ray

[AceyDeucy 0]

if you are a really really good player, like Phil Hellmuth [thinks he is], then it is to your benefit to lengthen the tournament whenever possible. This means keeps pots small, and stay out of major confrontations with below-nut hands, and not taking small edges, because you believe you can always get your money in as a 2-1 favorite or better. Someone who wants to cash a lot and has a lot of patience can cash a lot with this strategy, but win not a whole lot. In this tournament, you needed to play for a very high place, so you gotta swing for the fences. Here, you had pretty much a double-up opportunity at 1/4 the typical cost, with a reasonable hand. Gotta go for it.