when you're running bad, you're running bad.

[popeye18 0]

I'm sure that'll continue to correct down some over time, but I'd be amazed if I didn't land in the 3ish area after a million hands or so. We'll see, I guess.

Considering you play that many hands at this level thats over 600k. You say you get in around 3k hands a day. So thats close to a year. 600k in a year. Im bored.

[PoppinFresh 0]

First off I enjoy Smash's posts and don't mind him one bit so none of these another newbie hates smash flames...But, at what point do you people stop believing everything he says? I only skimmed the post, but it was pretty clear to me after reading the first line that there was no way it was accurate...Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87% Come on now...I know some other people see the problem with this.Edit: Read the rest of the post, he's clearly not being serious. Please tell me no one actually believed this.

[Smasharoo 0]

Come on now...I know some other people see the problem with this. That it's statistically unlikely? That's sort of the point.I'm not joking. Real numbers.This is only hands I'm in, obviously, not every hand of the 20k where someone has a flush draw, just where they're drawing against me.Or did you mean that I don't see folded flush draws?You must not play too much 10/20. People bet their flush draws when they miss.

[akishore 0]

Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87% Come on now...I know some other people see the problem with this.

are you serious?why is this hard to believe?do you have any idea how sick variance can get?assuming a flush draw is "successful" 1/3 of the time from the flop and that it follows a normal distribution, the standard deviation of this distribution is:sqrt [ (# trials) (1/3) (2/3) ].if we assume that over smash's last 20k hands, this situation (villian flopped a flush draw) has happened 2,000 times (probably an underestimation, but i'll give you the benefit of doubt), this works out to 21%.99.5% of the time, the actual probability of success will work out to +/- three standard deviations, or +/- 63% over the course of a random sample of 2,000 such trials (e.g. this one).since 87% (what smash is feeling) is well within the 96% upper possibility, this is very much possible and realistic.aseem

[AspiringPro 0]

BS

[delphi512 0]

Stop playing limit poker... switch to nl where people will respect your raises and you can really punish them for their draws. No way the guy makes runner runner straight on you when you have a set of jacks in nl. i hope i don't really need to put this but... [sw]

[PoppinFresh 0]

Come on now...I know some other people see the problem with this. That it's statistically unlikely? That's sort of the point.I'm not joking. Real numbers.This is only hands I'm in, obviously, not every hand of the 20k where someone has a flush draw, just where they're drawing against me.Or did you mean that I don't see folded flush draws?You must not play too much 10/20. People bet their flush draws when they miss.

You're right, I don't play 10/20. I still don't see how you could accurately predict with any precision how often your opponents are hitting their flush draws. There's no way that every hand goes to showdown...sometimes you fold, sometimes your opponent does, that's poker.If you listed one or two of these as being true over your last 20k hands it would be believable. But all of them? No way.Anyways, the matter isn't important. I honestly thought you weren't being serious after I read it over the first time. My reply wasn't really even in response to your initial post, but to other forum members' responses to it. If I made the same post I would get flamed for making it up, in fact I would say there are less than 10 forum members who could make this post without getting flamed. *Shrug*

[PoppinFresh 0]

Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87% Come on now...I know some other people see the problem with this.

are you serious?why is this hard to believe?do you have any idea how sick variance can get?assuming a flush draw is "successful" 1/3 of the time from the flop and that it follows a normal distribution, the standard deviation of this distribution is:sqrt [ (# trials) (1/3) (2/3) ].if we assume that over smash's last 20k hands, this situation (villian flopped a flush draw) has happened 2,000 times (probably an underestimation, but i'll give you the benefit of doubt), this works out to 21%.99.5% of the time, the actual probability of success will work out to +/- three standard deviations, or +/- 63% over the course of a random sample of 2,000 such trials (e.g. this one).since 87% (what smash is feeling) is well within the 96% upper possibility, this is very much possible and realistic.aseem

No, because not every hand goes to showdown...sometimes you fold on the river and sometimes your opponent does. He didn't even give a range or an approximation of how often his opponents are hitting their flush draws, he said 87%.Do you still not see the problem with that?

[delphi512 0]

or is this really, really easy to understand? he's only talking about hands he has shown down or have been shown down. Otherwise, he wouldn't have the data to make the analysis or even care for that fact. He is saying, when he hits his hand this is what is happening. Not this is happening wheter he is involved in the hand or not.

[RhinestoneCowboy 2]

If it falls to 3BB @ 1 million hands... 1 mill/100 = 10k * (3BB) = 600kNot a bad take regardless... you will get no pity....

[Whatever 1]

Wow. :shock: Do you have similar stats for your best 20k hands?

[alf13 0]

My last 20k hands:Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87%Opponents have A of two flush suit on flop, runner runner flush completes: 34%.I flop two pair, opponent flops set: 19%.I flop A with AK, opponent flops Ax two pair: 19%.I flop flush draw, completes on turn, loses to FH on river: 75% (I like that one the best)I have JJ, opponent has QQ, KK, or AA 50% :)I have QQ, oponent has KK or AA: 18%.I have KK, opponent has AA: 26% :)I have a PP, flop a set, 2%.I flop a set and it holds up to win: 11%AA wins the pot, including PF folds: 11%AK hits an A or a K on the flop: 8%On the turn: 0% :)QQ flops at leat one overcard: 97%AA flops at least two broadway cards T, J Q or K: 17%I have A of three flush flop suit, completes by river: 0%.I flop a flush, opponent has A of suit, completes by river: 100%.I flop the nut full house, lose by the river to a bigger full house or quads: 11%.Etc.Party is so censored riggged! I knew I shouldn't have cashed out. They hate that.

I told you so...Boy...did I nail it or what!!!!!

[hexag1 0]

that %87 flush draw hit rate.thats just the ones that get shown down and recorded into poker tracker.the ones arent shown down arent included here.youre opponents are NOT hitting %87 of their flush draws. the drawing odds to a flush draw on the flop are about %35 [which will almost certainly bear out over 10K hands]your being shown %87 made flushes and %13 missed flush draws [that are otherwise shown down].35 ~= %87 of 40so your opponents are foling their flush draws by the river about %60 percent of the time.sounds to me like they are laying down correctly.

[semaj550 0]

How many of each class of hand went to a show down, Smasharoo? I stopped believing in the validity of the numbers with the 87% flush draw completion rate but I neglected to take into consideration the fact that your opponent would have to showdown cards to be included in the sample.Perhaps you are able to post the same statistics over your last 20k hands that actually went to a showdown, the numbers would have more meaning then. In fact, I'm still boggling at the fact that 13% of those flush draw situations went a show down without your opponent improving (unless that is precicely the number of times you checked the river).

[Actuary 3]

Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87% Come on now...I know some other people see the problem with this.

are you serious?why is this hard to believe?do you have any idea how sick variance can get?assuming a flush draw is "successful" 1/3 of the time from the flop and that it follows a normal distribution, the standard deviation of this distribution is:sqrt [ (# trials) (1/3) (2/3) ].if we assume that over smash's last 20k hands, this situation (villian flopped a flush draw) has happened 2,000 times (probably an underestimation, but i'll give you the benefit of doubt), this works out to 21%.99.5% of the time, the actual probability of success will work out to +/- three standard deviations, or +/- 63% over the course of a random sample of 2,000 such trials (e.g. this one).since 87% (what smash is feeling) is well within the 96% upper possibility, this is very much possible and realistic.aseem

mutiply that by the probability of all the other bad beats, too.When you multiply 2000*1/3 *2/3 and take sqrt you get 21. That's not 21%..its 21 times out of 2000. So +3 stndv = 63 times. So for 2000 hands you would expect 2000/3 = 666..add 63 = 729. 87% of 2000 = 1740BUT...aseem..Smash's trial size is much less..as it's only hands he playsLets say Smash is playing 4000 of the 20,000. Now the flush draws are 400 trials (using 10% again) sqrt (400*1/3*2/3) = 9.4 x3 = 28.2400/3 + 28.2 = 161.5. 87% of 400 = 348. Very rare...especially with all the other stuff too.EDIT: Yes, left out all those that don't go to showdown..makes this figure quite believable..Some of the other situations are probably more rare..like the PP against better PP's...For the record, i believe Smash. (or I don't think too hard about it)And he cracks me up.And it does no good to think someone is lying without proof, just makes you bitter. And he cracks me up

[Smasharoo 0]

so your opponents are foling their flush draws by the river about %60 percent of the time. No.I took river folds on flush boards into account.Thanks for assuming though.

[Actuary 3]

so your opponents are foling their flush draws by the river about %60 percent of the time. No.I took river folds on flush boards into account.Thanks for assuming though.

So you assigned a certain % to the folders based on their prior street actions to put them in the "missed" draw column?

[Smasharoo 0]

So you assigned a certain % to the folders based on their prior street actions to put them in the "missed" draw column?Right.Can't be 100% acurate, obivously, but when someone raises the flop, calls a three bet, calls the turn and then folds the river and the only draw is the flush....

[SuM827 0]

My last 20k hands:Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87%Opponents have A of two flush suit on flop, runner runner flush completes: 34%.I flop two pair, opponent flops set: 19%.I flop A with AK, opponent flops Ax two pair: 19%.I flop flush draw, completes on turn, loses to FH on river: 75% (I like that one the best)I have JJ, opponent has QQ, KK, or AA 50% :)I have QQ, oponent has KK or AA: 18%.I have KK, opponent has AA: 26% :)I have a PP, flop a set, 2%.I flop a set and it holds up to win: 11%AA wins the pot, including PF folds: 11%AK hits an A or a K on the flop: 8%On the turn: 0% :)QQ flops at leat one overcard: 97%AA flops at least two broadway cards T, J Q or K: 17%I have A of three flush flop suit, completes by river: 0%.I flop a flush, opponent has A of suit, completes by river: 100%.I flop the nut full house, lose by the river to a bigger full house or quads: 11%.Etc.Party is so censored riggged! I knew I shouldn't have cashed out. They hate that.

for your sake, I hope these are omaha stats

[hexag1 0]

So you assigned a certain % to the folders based on their prior street actions to put them in the "missed" draw column?Right.Can't be 100% acurate, obivously, but when someone raises the flop, calls a three bet, calls the turn and then folds the river and the only draw is the flush....

this guesstimate cant possibly be objective or accurate [not even %50]. what about and unimproved AK or small PP? lots of limit players[read: fish] play AK and small PP this way. people will call or raise w/2nd or third pair, hoping you will check the turn. sometimes people will call/raise the flop just hoping to pick up a draw on the turn, then fold the river. what if theyre peeling off cards hoping to bluff if any scare cards come? Of course theyd be fools to play that way, but look at the games your playing in. thanks for assuming tho.your numbers for 2 pair vs sets and stuff sound right, as players will always show down sets.

[Smasharoo 0]

this estimate cant possibly be objective or accurate [not even %50]. what about and unimproved AK? lots of limit players [even at 10/20] play AK this way. what if theyre peeling off cards hoping to bluff if any scare cards come? Of course theyd be fools to play that way, but look at the games your playing in. thanks for assuming tho.and how can you represent this guesstimate number as part your "stats" like you did in the original post???Yeah it's joke.Don't tell anyone, though, it's our secret.Also, I can see hole cards 20 minutes before they show up on my screen on Stars!!!

[hexag1 0]

ok ok. i changed the last line of my reply after seeing that you didnt say "stats" or anything in your original post. your welcome for assuming

[lboarts 0]

Party is so ****ing riggged! I knew I shouldn't have cashed out. They hate that.How much of this statement do you actually believe? I've had similar downswings after cashing out.

[quickstilz 0]

My last 20k hands:Opponents have flush draw on flop, completes by river: 87%Opponents have A of two flush suit on flop, runner runner flush completes: 34%.I flop two pair, opponent flops set: 19%.I flop A with AK, opponent flops Ax two pair: 19%.I flop flush draw, completes on turn, loses to FH on river: 75% (I like that one the best)I have JJ, opponent has QQ, KK, or AA 50% :)I have QQ, oponent has KK or AA: 18%.I have KK, opponent has AA: 26% :)I have a PP, flop a set, 2%.I flop a set and it holds up to win: 11%AA wins the pot, including PF folds: 11%AK hits an A or a K on the flop: 8%On the turn: 0% :)QQ flops at leat one overcard: 97%AA flops at least two broadway cards T, J Q or K: 17%I have A of three flush flop suit, completes by river: 0%.I flop a flush, opponent has A of suit, completes by river: 100%.I flop the nut full house, lose by the river to a bigger full house or quads: 11%.Etc.Party is so censored riggged! I knew I shouldn't have cashed out. They hate that.

I had great satisfaction upon reading this. Yes, I am sick.

[ChunkyLuver69 0]

Man thats just...wow that suck I feel you manThats like I would be down like $38509795689716498146589643159823 if that happened