14,000 hands (not a stats post)

[econ_tim 0]

I read somewhere (I think it was while I was browsing Hilger's book) that a winning player should at the least break even over a period of 14,000 hands.Does anyone have any experience to confirm or deny this?Also, with it seems internet poker has changed the life of poker pros a lot if this is true. I remember reading somewhere else (probably a pokerpages article) that you should prepare to have losing months and losing years if you are going pro. While I see this could be true for B & M pros, it seems hard to have a losing week for busy internet players.Am I way off base?

[akishore 0]

I read somewhere (I think it was while I was browsing Hilger's book) that a winning player should at the least break even over a period of 14,000 hands.

this isn't _absolutely_ true at all. there is always a chance, no matter how high your winrate and how low your variance, that you will lose money over a period of any number of hands. that chance just gets smaller and smaller the better you get.that number was probably tossed out there with the intent of meaning "it's __% (95%, 99%, 99.9%, etc.) likely that a winning player will at least break even after 14,000 hands given a winrate of __ BB/100 and a standard deviation of __ BB/100."

I remember reading somewhere else (probably a pokerpages article) that you should prepare to have losing months and losing years if you are going pro. While I see this could be true for B & M pros, it seems hard to have a losing week for busy internet players.

i think a losing week is very possible.a losing month is probably quite unlikely, but as with any professional gambling, there is always that chance, even if it is as low as 1% or 0.1%. if you are playing professionally, you should be prepared for those losing months, because even if they are very unlikely, they are very possible, and rent/food/child-support/alimony/etc. is something you don't gamble with (couldn't resist the pun, sorry).aseem

[econ_tim 0]

Allright. I suppose I knew the 14,000 hand number wasn't absolute, but neither is the 300BB rule. I should look up the confidence intervals.Anyway, my weeker point was that the internet allows you to play a lot more hands, which not only increases your winrate but makes your actual stats closer to your true stats.So internet pros are less likely to experience prolonged downswings (measured in days).

[popeye18 0]

Anyway, my weeker point was that the internet allows you to play a lot more hands, which not only increases your winrate but makes your actual stats closer to your true stats.

True. Ive seen people who play 15k hands a week. While possible its unlikely to be behind after 15k hands if your a winning player at say 3/6.

[TheMathProf 0]

a losing month is probably quite unlikely, but as with any professional gambling, there is always that chance, even if it is as low as 1% or 0.1%.

Although keep in mind that the more months you play, the more often you're dodging that same 1% or 0.1%.It's kind of like the situation that if you're in a room with 30 people, the odds are nearly 50-50 that someone in the room has the same birthday as some other person in the room, and the odds of a particular birthday occurring sits at about 0.3%.Just saying that even a seemingly rare event could quite possibly happen, and even in a relatively short timespan. My own take is that the odds of a losing month for a long-term winner (depending on how winning the player is) is probably pretty close to that 1% number.