my total newb question on variance.

[RayPowers 0]

I notice I am right now basically a break even player, but in a very standard pattern. I play low limits and my session history seems to go +20BB, +20BB, -40BB, repeat ad nasuem. (I'd say this pattern is correct for about my last 30 sessions.)I know there's very little info to go off of, but what I'm trying to figure out is if this is a normal variance curve, or if I may be missing something else....Ray

[Abbaddabba 0]

Variance isn't a function of "sessions" with arbitrary bounds, at least in the mathematical sense. It's just coincidental that it goes +20 +20 -40.If you wanted to check the true variance, you would have to track your hand history. Sum of squared deviations from the mean, and all that business.

[Smasharoo 0]

No way to tell. You could be a losing playerThere's no such thing as a "normal" variance curve. Depends on how aggresive the gane is, your winrate, etc etc.I've had +100, -100, +100, -100, +176 weeks before.I've also had 10 break even sessions in a row befire.

[RayPowers 0]

I see what you are both saying, I guess it just feels weird that I tend to go little win, little win, big loss, and its very consistent like that.I'm trying to decide if its a subconcious tilt factor I need to fix, and if so, if I should do it by saying I will play until I hit a time limit or am down X, since this would theoretically force me out of games I am tilting in and don't know it, and out of games where I am likely the sucker but don't realize it, since I am a self admitted non-pro/newb.If I go by hard numbers, I am up about $100. As mentioned in another thread, online its easy to see if you are a winning or losing player because the cashier is staring you in the face. However, if you average that out to a per hour income, I have made about 10 cents an hour. =PThanks for input guys, and anyone else who adds more input after I post this, thank you as well. =)Ray

[Smasharoo 0]

Try playing with a peice of tape over your stack size.If you think it effects your play when you're suck some.

[RayPowers 0]

Try playing with a peice of tape over your stack size.If you think it effects your play when you're suck some.

Hehehehe, and not know my stack versus someone else's stack? .... No. =)That plus I play on a portable, man, that tape is gonna ruin the screen!

[Actuary 3]

do you take independent 100 hand increments?I know the calculation, I just don't know what samples you use?edit: trying to determine for the Ruin Calculation. Using 100 hands maokes sense, if you base your win rate on 100 hands as well.

[justblaze 0]

I see what you are both saying, I guess it just feels weird that I tend to go little win, little win, big loss, and its very consistent like that.I'm trying to decide if its a subconcious tilt factor I need to fix, and if so, if I should do it by saying I will play until I hit a time limit or am down X, since this would theoretically force me out of games I am tilting in and don't know it, and out of games where I am likely the sucker but don't realize it, since I am a self admitted non-pro/newb.If I go by hard numbers, I am up about $100. As mentioned in another thread, online its easy to see if you are a winning or losing player because the cashier is staring you in the face. However, if you average that out to a per hour income, I have made about 10 cents an hour. =PThanks for input guys, and anyone else who adds more input after I post this, thank you as well. =)Ray

i'd bet you're too eager to quit when you're up. once you hit that 20bb+ mark you quit, right? do you ever quit when you're DOWN 20bb? basically what i am saying is try playing time, not results. say "im going to play for 3 hours" and quit at exactly 3 hours no matter what.

[CormacD 0]

Variance is why i lost with the nut flush about 4 times last night to rivered full houses, right?

[Azzy666 0]

Hehehehe, and not know my stack versus someone else's stack? .... No. =)

That doesn't matter in limit hold'em...

[RayPowers 0]

i'd bet you're too eager to quit when you're up. once you hit that 20bb+ mark you quit, right? do you ever quit when you're DOWN 20bb? basically what i am saying is try playing time, not results. say "im going to play for 3 hours" and quit at exactly 3 hours no matter what.

Hurmm, no, not really. I think only once in recent memory have I quit when I hit a big up. In general I play from 9pm (post kids in bed) to "when I get tired." This averages from 11:30 to 11:00pm. So I do play time, not results right now, but the time admittedly varies somewhat by level of exhaustion.I think what I'm feeling is that, for a non-pro like myself, trying the "play time not results" method doesn't feel like it working for me. I *SUSPECT* its because I'm not correctly identifying whether a game is good for me or not, but I'm not sure.To Azzy6, I disagree about that in limit hold'em. I'm often able to identify a short stacks play easier than anyone else, as most of them seem to fall into one of two categories:1) Play super tight for the nuts2) Betting their way to all in with pretty much anything when the blinds get to them.Its obviously not as much a factor, but still a factor.(I'm positive that I'm the newb in this conversation, but that's why I posted it, to get better than me opinions and try to understand them. Speaking of which, thanks to all for the lack of flaming.)Ray

[idiotbocs 0]

the time thing is good, but there are times you should stop when losing. Otherwise, you end the day down 150BB... :cry: