help with percentages

[Stylin_Fish 0]

I was just wondering if you guys could help me figure out what the percentages/chances of a hand like this happening. Here's an example. You have AA, someone else has AQ, what are the percentages/chances of the last Ace coming on the flop/turn/ river. Any help is appreciated, thanks.

[Jeff 0]

I was just wondering if you guys could help me figure out what the percentages/chances of a hand like this happening. Here's an example. You have AA, someone else has AQ, what are the percentages/chances of the last Ace coming on the flop/turn/ river. Any help is appreciated, thanks.

calculator is at cardplayer.com for any scenario

[Stylin_Fish 0]

I thought it was only for seeing the percentages on who will win the hand, not the chanes of a card coming out.I don't want to know what the chances that AQ will win the hand are, just of that last ace coming out(i know it's probably hard to figure out).

[knght311 0]

well I guess you could figure it out like this...1 ace left out 48 unseen cards, so it would be 3/48 on the flop, 1/45 on the turn and 1/45 on the river in getting that ace so a 6.25% chance of hitting on the flop, 2.2% chance on turn and 2% chance on river

[bdams19 0]

44 for the river

[Magnum666 0]

I was just wondering if you guys could help me figure out what the percentages/chances of a hand like this happening. Here's an example. You have AA, someone else has AQ, what are the percentages/chances of the last Ace coming on the flop/turn/ river. Any help is appreciated, thanks.

Since there is only one Ace remaining in the deck, the chances are pretty slim:On the flop: 6.25%On the turn: 2.08%On the river: 2.08%So the total chance of the Ace falling somewhere on the board is 10.42%Hope this helps....

[Magnum666 0]

well I guess you could figure it out like this...1 ace left out 48 unseen cards, so it would be 3/48 on the flop, 1/45 on the turn and 1/45 on the river in getting that ace so a 6.25% chance of hitting on the flop, 2.2% chance on turn and 2% chance on river

oops it's already been answered...damn you guys are fast

[Nutcracker 0]

While knght's math is wrong, it is a decent approximation.The correct answer is:Calculate the chance of it not coming. Subtract that from 1.1- (47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46 * 44/45 * 43/44) = .1042So 10.42%Or alternately, 5/48, as there are 48 cards in the deck and you get 5 chances to hit the A.

[squizie 0]

well put nutcracker....couldnt have said it better myself

[knght311 0]

While knght's math is wrong, it is a decent approximation.The correct answer is:Calculate the chance of it not coming. Subtract that from 1.1- (47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46 * 44/45 * 43/44) = .1042So 10.42%Or alternately, 5/48, as there are 48 cards in the deck and you get 5 chances to hit the A.

I was basing it off the chances on flop, turn, river, not the chance that you would hit the ace at all...just the chances on each segment.

[HangukMiguk 8]

here's a simple way to calculate odds; article from Clonie Gowen:========================================================It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you're sitting at the poker table. Unless you're a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it. That leaves two options for the rest of us: The first option is to sit at home with a calculator, figure out the odds for every possible combination of draws, and then memorize them. That way, no matter what situation comes up, you always know the odds. But for those of us without a perfect memory, there's an easier way. Here is a simple trick for estimating those odds.The first thing you need to do is to figure out how many "outs" you have. An "out" is any card that gives you a made hand. To do this, simply count the number of cards available that give the hand you are drawing to. For example: suppose you hold Ac 8c and the flop comes Qh 9c 4c. You have a flush draw. There are thirteen clubs in the deck and you are looking at four of them -- the two in your hand, and the two on the board. That leaves nine clubs left in the deck, and two chances to hit one. The trick to figuring out the approximate percentage chance of hitting the flush is to multiply your outs times the number of chances to hit it. In this case that would be nine outs multiplied by two chances, or eighteen. Then take that number, multiply times two, and add a percentage sign. The approximate percentage of the time you will make the flush is 36%. (The exact percentage is 34.97%.) Now let's say that on that same flop you hold the Jd Th. In this case you would have an open ended straight draw with eight outs to hit the straight (four kings and four eights). Eight outs with two cards to come gives you sixteen outs. Multiply times two and you will hit the straight approximately 32% (31.46% exactly) of the time.One important thing to keep in mind is that the percentage stated is merely the percentage of the time that you will hit the hand you are drawing to, NOT the percentage of time that you will win the pot. You may hit your hand and still lose. In the first example, the Qc will pair the board and may give somebody a full house. In the second example both the Kc and the 8c will put a possible flush on the board, giving you the straight, but not necessarily the winning hand. Still, knowing the approximate likelihood of making your hand is a good beginning step on the road to better poker.=================================================Hope that helps.

[nutonflop 0]

While knght's math is wrong, it is a decent approximation.The correct answer is:Calculate the chance of it not coming. Subtract that from 1.1- (47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46 * 44/45 * 43/44) = .1042So 10.42%Or alternately, 5/48, as there are 48 cards in the deck and you get 5 chances to hit the A.

I was basing it off the chances on flop, turn, river, not the chance that you would hit the ace at all...just the chances on each segment.

How are those odds worng?i think 10 % is pretty good. Ak has a 32% chance to crack kings, meaning spike yer ace, take 66% of those outs away, yer left with 10%

[Nutcracker 0]

While knght's math is wrong, it is a decent approximation.The correct answer is:Calculate the chance of it not coming. Subtract that from 1.1- (47/48 * 46/47 * 45/46 * 44/45 * 43/44) = .1042So 10.42%Or alternately, 5/48, as there are 48 cards in the deck and you get 5 chances to hit the A.

I was basing it off the chances on flop, turn, river, not the chance that you would hit the ace at all...just the chances on each segment.

How are those odds worng?i think 10 % is pretty good. Ak has a 32% chance to crack kings, meaning spike yer ace, take 66% of those outs away, yer left with 10%

The chance to hit the case A on the turn is exactly the same as the chance to hit it on the river. That is the most glaring error.

[Stylin_Fish 0]

Okay then. What are the odds that when i hold pocket queens, that someone else holds pocket aces or kings. I don't really want to know, but it seems on this site i play that everytime and I mean EVERYTIME i hold pocket queens, someone has A's or K's.

[nutonflop 0]

Okay then. What are the odds that when i hold pocket queens, that someone else holds pocket aces or kings. I don't really want to know, but it seems on this site i play that everytime and I mean EVERYTIME i hold pocket queens, someone has A's or K's.

52*51=2652 / 9 (ways to make a aces)so. it's294 to 1 to get acesor294 to 1 to get kingsdivided by 9 players=about 1 in 16297 to 1 to get queensso it's actually 1 in 4,851 (1 in 16 * 1 in 294)? that can't be right. where did i screw up?EDIT: I THINK I FOUND IT SEE BELOW

[Governator 54]

HangukMiguk - That's the way I was taught to do it on the fly, much easier - Good Post.

[Nutcracker 0]

The chance of being dealt any specific pocket pair is actually 1/221.

[nutonflop 0]

The chance of being dealt any specific pocket pair is actually 1/221.

i always wondered about thatthere are 52*51 possible hold'me combos. 2652divide that by ways of making aces (9 ways)=294oh, twelve ways. im a jag bagmakes my previous answer a 1 in 12.28 chance there is someone holding aa, or kk at any point 1 in 2,713 that you will be holding queens too

[HangukMiguk 8]

HangukMiguk - That's the way I was taught to do it on the fly, much easier - Good Post.

No problem. If you wanna impress people, use different methods. But the one above is easier, and just as effective. Why complicate things? Things can get complicated enough just putting your opponent on a hand, so why add in the trouble of doing advanced math just to caclulate your odds?