Vegas King 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 The last 2 years have been fabulous in the poker world. Many of us have made a significant amount of money due to the overflowing card rooms especially here in Vegas. The reality is that it will not last for too long.The economics of the game just will not allow it. We have already seen many of the newbies begin to pull back a bit as the losses have mounted. I have many friends that now only play one or two small tournaments a week because they got busted. Many have become dealers or had to find other work. I know we are not yet at the peak, but it is coming. I would be shocked if it lasted 3 more full years. I believe by the end of 2006 the ride will be over and by the end of 2007 you will see it come full circle and many of the new rooms that are opening will begin to close once more.We analyzed our favorite game the 15-30 game. When you figure in the rake and tips, it costs the average player about $13.00 per hour to play. This mean that if everyone started with $1,000, 8 hours later we should all have $896.00 left if we are all even. In most of the games we play, you have 1 or 2 good sized winners and few near break even and a slew of losers over the course of a day. I would guess that only about 15% of players are actually winners. of them I would guess that only 25% of the winners could actually make a living off of their winnings. I consider a living as anything over $50K per year or $1,000 per week. I know there are a lot of recreational players that do this for fun or on vacation, but most the players I see are newbies trying to make a run for it. Over time the money will dry up as will the number of players with the cash to play.It is wonderful now, just remember to feed those IRA's as the valley will be here sooner than you think. Link to post Share on other sites
Mandelbrot 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 I'm not so sure. People still play Blackjack and the Lotto - those have been around for years. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 The sky is falling!! The sky is falling!!The good thing about Holdem is that horrible players can have winning days, even BIG winning days.The people who will stop playing are the people who thought they could make a living at the game but just aren't good enough. Every day a whole new group of players who think they can make money playing holdem turn 21.The soft games aren't going anywhere. There's a few things that could kill the online game, but I wouldn't worry about the local 5/10 game suddenlt being empty or full of world class competition in the next 10 years. Link to post Share on other sites
banker2005 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 I agree with you to a certain extent, I think a lot of the hype will be over, and maybe a decline in players, but I agree with Smash, there will still be plenty of easy games to clean up on. Link to post Share on other sites
Randy Reed 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 Well, there could be some validity to what you are saying. As far as Vegas poker rooms and all over for that matter are concerned, especially in casinos though. Casinos can make so much more money with the space using slots and such. If they keep the rakes high to remain profitable they will eventually eat up all the money over time without an influx of new money. It's actually been done already if you read Lou Kreiger's basic Texas Holdem book. The online status of the game is greatly changing it though and the TV popularity as well, so it remains to be seen. Link to post Share on other sites
AvoidReality 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 At the end of the day people were still making money at poker long before the boom and they will continue to do it once its over Link to post Share on other sites
AnnChristiansen 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 At the end of the day people were still making money at poker long before the boom and they will continue to do it once its overRight. Brunson, Sklansky, Chip, etc.So the question is: Are you profitable now only because of the boom or will you still be profitable if and when the boom collapses? Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 Brunson and Sklansky weren't making money beating the local $5/$10 game. I'm also really tired of hearing the "slot machine" argument because it's complete bullshit.The idea that casino's that build bloody exploding volcanos to attract people in to play are having a big problem with a game they MAKE MONEY on because it takes up slot machine space is so funny it's laughable. If you don't get people into the casino to PLAY THE MACHINES you're not making any from them.When I see a waiting list of an hour for a slot machine I'll worry about casinos breaking up poker rooms to fit more slots in. Link to post Share on other sites
AnnChristiansen 0 Posted January 10, 2005 Share Posted January 10, 2005 I wouldn't worry about the local 5/10 game suddenlt being empty or full of world class competition in the next 10 years.Pre-boom there are 50 tables, each with one pro and one semi-pro. The rest are fish. Poker booms and there are 100 tables, each with one pro and one semi-pro. Poker busts and there are now 50 tables again. So there are twice as many pros and semi-pros and half as many fish as during the boom time. Unless the remaining fish are super-fishy -- fishier than in the pre-boom times -- many of the pros and semi-pros will now lose money. That is what the original poster is talking about.Is there anything about this scenario that is unreasonable? Link to post Share on other sites
PokerFan 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I'm ok with the comments for the original poster, however I think the fall to reality will be more like 1-2 years not 3-5 years Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Poker busts and there are now 50 tables again. So there are twice as many pros and semi-pros and half as many fish as during the boom time. Unless the remaining fish are super-fishy -- fishier than in the pre-boom times -- many of the pros and semi-pros will now lose money.That is what the original poster is talking about.Is there anything about this scenario that is unreasonable?Yes, the entire thing. The idea that ONLY the fish are going to leave is stupid. If poker slows down it's not only going to be bad players who don't show up, it'll be spread across the demographic.What you people don't seem to understand is that bad players don't stop playing because they lose money. If they did, Vegas would be a small town with a 7-11 with two slot machines. Link to post Share on other sites
Mister Hand 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Brunson and Sklansky weren't making money beating the local $5/$10 game. Â I'm also really tired of hearing the "slot machine" argument because it's complete censored.The idea that casino's that build bloody exploding volcanos to attract people in to play are having a big problem with a game they MAKE MONEY on because it takes up slot machine space is so funny it's laughable. Â If you don't get people into the casino to PLAY THE MACHINES you're not making any from them.When I see a waiting list of an hour for a slot machine I'll worry about casinos breaking up poker rooms to fit more slots in.It wasn't too long ago that cardrooms were being closed and replaced with slots. Not just in Vegas, but other areas as well. Now poker is hot, and that trend has reversed. Many casinos are expanding their rooms, or opening new ones. As long as poker remains popular, and becomes a reason that people are attracted to a casino, those cardrooms will stay open. And even if poker popularity declines, some casinos will continue to have cardrooms. But if poker isn't "here to stay" at this level of popularity, then some cardrooms will close down, just as they were doing three and four years ago. Because like it or not, your average casino makes much more per square foot taken up by slots than it does by space taken up by a poker room. It's not that the poker room is a loss leader, it's that they make much more with slots. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 It wasn't too long ago that cardrooms were being closed and replaced with slots. Not just in Vegas, but other areas as well. /shrug.I'm also tired of hearing of the "Bad old days" when cardrooms were closing left and right and you couldn't find a game anywhere.Let's be specific. When where and which cardrooms being closed in favor of slot machines are we talking about here? Link to post Share on other sites
Meotch08 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 its ok if the the game slows down in the next couple of years. i planning on making a few million before 2007 no, really though i think in about 3 more years it will be much harder to find a game then it is right now. Link to post Share on other sites
AnnChristiansen 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 The idea that ONLY the fish are going to leave is stupid. Â If poker slows down it's not only going to be bad players who don't show up, it'll be spread across the demographic.But that's the whole point of the original post Smash! The point is that some pros will have to leave the game if the poker boom goes bust because they will no longer be able to make money.The original poster is making the additional claim that the boom will not last for 3 more years and suggests that people put money in their IRAs.Is your only point of disagreement in regards to the length of time that the boom will last? Or do you have a more substantive disagreement? Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 It wasn't too long ago that cardrooms were being closed and replaced with slots. Not just in Vegas, but other areas as well. Â /shrug.I'm also tired of hearing of the "Bad old days" when cardrooms were closing left and right and you couldn't find a game anywhere.Let's be specific. Â When where and which cardrooms being closed in favor of slot machines are we talking about here?I agree. I primarily play cashgames online as well and I don't see online poker rooms replacing their tables with slots :roll: With advancements of technology I can only look forward to what internet poker will look like in say, 10 years. Who knows, maybe we'll all play in online 3d cyber-rooms when slotmachines have conquered earth. Link to post Share on other sites
Mister Hand 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 It wasn't too long ago that cardrooms were being closed and replaced with slots. Not just in Vegas, but other areas as well. Â /shrug.I'm also tired of hearing of the "Bad old days" when cardrooms were closing left and right and you couldn't find a game anywhere.Let's be specific. Â When where and which cardrooms being closed in favor of slot machines are we talking about here?In 2001 alone, 5 Vegas casinos closed their poker rooms: Stratosphere, Riviera, Las Vegas Club, Regent and the New Frontier. In that same year, only one casino opened a new room (the Palms). It wasn't a good time for cardrooms in Las Vegas. You may be tired of hearing of the bad old days, but that doesn't mean they didn't happen. Link to post Share on other sites
Mister Hand 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I agree. I primarily play cashgames online as well and I don't see online poker rooms replacing their tables with slots  :roll:  There's a big difference between online casinos and brick & mortar ones. Online casinos don't have to worry about limited square footage, or paying the cost of dealer salaries and benefits. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 In 2001 alone, 5 Vegas casinos closed their poker rooms: Stratosphere, Riviera, Las Vegas Club, Regent and the New Frontier. In that same year, only one casino opened a new room (the Palms).It wasn't a good time for cardrooms in Las Vegas. You may be tired of hearing of the bad old days, but that doesn't mean they didn't happen.You're joking, right? You're talking about 2001??Did you find it tough to find a good game in 2001? Link to post Share on other sites
TheIceman05 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 The truth lies between both extreme arguments.FACT: Poker has never been as popular as it is today. Not even close, and there can be no disagreement.FACT: There MUST be some regression to the mean. At some point, popularity (of all things, except banging) tapers off, and begins some type of declineMOST IMPORTANT FACT: There will be a new equilibrium established! And it will be higher than the equilibrium of 5 years ago! Poker is now imbued within the national conciousness at a level that will PERMANENTLY increase it's popularity among all types. Which means better players are still much better off. Those that are only a little better than the worst of players are the ones that will be most affected.Poker's going to become less popular (not any time TOO soon, mind you... it's popularity is still increasing exponentially), but it'll still be a valuable commodity for casinos, and skillful players.UNGH! Yeah!Ice Link to post Share on other sites
AnnChristiansen 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 With advancements of technology I can only look forward to what internet poker will look like in say, 10 years.I think you might regret that statement. ;)proto-Smash is quad-tabling 3/6 and making $500/day which comes to $200K/year. Why isn't he playing at 20 3/6 tables? Because he physically can't. If he could, he'd make $1M/yr. What can play at 20 3/6 tables? A bot.What is $1M/yr? It's the level at which members of the MIT Blackjack Team start getting interested. (Indeed, if it weren't for the fact that Smash misspelled the word "silliness" I would give you even odds that he is a member of the Team and is working on the problem right now. ) Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 I agree. I primarily play cashgames online as well and I don't see online poker rooms replacing their tables with slots  :roll:  There's a big difference between online casinos and brick & mortar ones. Online casinos don't have to worry about limited square footage, or paying the cost of dealer salaries and benefits.Really... I'm trying to point out that you seem to be overlooking online poker and it's contribution to poker popularity. In most European countries you won't find a good profitable b&m room for cashgames. So many players are starting off online and might play for months and months without even playing live a single time, so a vegas cardroom closing down doesn't make a difference.Christiansen, is that a Danish name? I know a Danish guy who plays 8 tables of 2/4 at party (yes, he does this for a living) runs a party client and an empire client at the same time. Not that it's completely relevant to what you said but just thought i'd let ya know :)I play no limit mainly and the MIT guys will have a hard time making a great NL bot Maybe they'll come up with something decent, but I'm sure poker sites will put a lot of effort into human verification and bot protection. Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 proto-Smash is quad-tabling 3/6 and making $500/day which comes to $200K/year. Why isn't he playing at 20 3/6 tables? Because he physically can't. If he could, he'd make $1M/yr. Nobody's making $200k/year 4 tabling $3/$6 . If they are, they're better men than me. I cleared around $45k last year from Party.I make six figures, but 75% of that is my salary from writing. (my real job).Bots are a worry, though. Eventually there will be one that can play optimally and not be detected. There are allerady poor ones that can eek out profits at micro-micro limits. Link to post Share on other sites
rkard 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 Bots are a worry, though. Â Eventually there will be one that can play optimally and not be detected. Â There are alleradyWhat do you write Link to post Share on other sites
Smasharoo 0 Posted January 11, 2005 Share Posted January 11, 2005 What do you write/sigh.Romance novels.Joke away, kids. Link to post Share on other sites
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