Actuary 3 Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 rog:I seriously disagree with the Equity results.my M goes to 6 if I win and 3 if I fold.Surely my Equity should go up by more than 12 to 21% Link to post Share on other sites
rog 0 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Note that a win gives you 600 more chips for your 1200 stack (roughly). That's a stack increase of 50%. A corresponding TEQ increase of 50% would move you from 15 to 22.5. That's enough to make the call pretty much break even. I dont think you can expect any better than that. The exact calculations are sensitive to the exact stack sizes. My point is not really about the results, but about the method. TEQ has to be used in these situations. Pot odds dont do it, especially when your tournament life is on the line. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 I know your point.I'm just making a math/experience observation to say, I'd like to know the TEQ equations better, because I disagree with the results.I have 800 more chips if I win than fold.that's 80% increase.i also give all in pusher a very wide range and suspect I"m >30% fwiw. Link to post Share on other sites
wrto4556 0 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 Its not all about the price we're getting PF either. In the first hand we dont really have chips to mess around with. By calling this guys all in we commit half of our chips (when the blinds are high/compared) with 8-high. If we lose (which is going to be the case most often) its going to be hard as **** to come back with only 3BBs. If we had more or less chips a call would be more favorable.The second hand I fold, too. Id let those guys knock each other out and give myself a chance to get in the money the next time that i double up with a decent hand. Going all in with T3o is cool, but calling 2 peoples all in with no chips if you lose?Ice man, you got to help me understand this. Link to post Share on other sites
rog 0 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 I know your point.I'm just making a math/experience observation to say, I'd like to know the TEQ equations better, because I disagree with the results.I have 800 more chips if I win than fold.that's 80% increase.i also give all in pusher a very wide range and suspect I"m >30% fwiw.Yes, it's an 80% increase in your stack size. My point is exactly that your equity is not only proportional to your chip stack. It's sensitive to the sizes of the other stacks, and the payout structure. In this case, your equity gain is muted by other factors. It's in the neighborhhood though. The TEQ calculations almost certainly use ICM (Independent Chip Model). This model assumes that your odds of winning ARE directly proportional to your chip stack size. Basically, each players odds of winning 1st place is the proportion of total chips in play they hold. Each players odds of winning second is the odds of NOT winning 1st times their proportion of total chips in play excluding the chips of the 1st place winner. Which of course becomes the weighted sum for all possible 1st place winners. In essence, it's a weighted sum of weighted sums.His hand range may well be wider, and that affects the outcome, but note that I gave you 75/25, when Iceman gave you 78/22. In essence, I already widened his range a bit.Honestly, when I read this, given the constraints and the discussion, (and the estimate of 3.5%:1 underdog), I kind of thought I'd be folding. I did the math not knowing how TEQ would differ from the pot odds EV calculations. Link to post Share on other sites
Aces_Up 0 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 One interesting thing I noticed in this topic is that RocketWadster calculated the pot odds by including Actuary's call in the pot and nobody really corrected him. Now either this was an oversight, or I've been doing pot odds wrong all along. I'm confident it is the former, but the latter could help explain some of the strange calls I see in the low limit online games. Link to post Share on other sites
rog 0 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 One interesting thing I noticed in this topic is that RocketWadster calculated the pot odds by including Actuary's call in the pot and nobody really corrected him. Now either this was an oversight, or I've been doing pot odds wrong all along. I'm confident it is the former, but the latter could help explain some of the strange calls I see in the low limit online games. This thread is a year old and dug up today. Rocketwadstr had it wrong back then, and no doubt somebody on here set him straight at some point. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted May 19, 2006 Author Share Posted May 19, 2006 I noted the error back then..see my psot where I say he's counting his own too.Rog... what I"m trying to say is that in real life, I'm not suire those TEQ equations correlate to actual results. But as a Math guy, I think they are neat. Certainly in ter 2nd example, I cant fold T3..I have nothing left, I HAVE TO get lucky. Link to post Share on other sites
jjgoldy5 0 Posted May 19, 2006 Share Posted May 19, 2006 I think there are certain situations which dictate not playing the odds (non-implied at least)If you are a dominant stack, you want to avoid taking a large blow to your stack, which would inherently effect your ability to steal. I've folded some nice hands late in tournaments because I had an abnormally good situation for stealing Link to post Share on other sites
mused01 0 Posted May 21, 2006 Share Posted May 21, 2006 nice calls on both. maybe i'm just loosey goosey, but you have to make these calls. Link to post Share on other sites
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