$50 SnG bubble play.

[timwakefield 68]

I only read the beginning of page one, but to me it is an easy call. Since when does anybody play to cash???????

[Actuary 3]

I only read the beginning of page one, but to me it is an easy call. Since when does anybody play to cash???????

in SnG's?u kidding right?but this case is clear call...anyway, as we are not anywher close to guaranteed cashing just by folding here.shpget summed it up well, imo

[timwakefield 68]

in SnG's?u kidding right?

No......I mean obviously cashing is the first priority in an sng, but when you get a chance to double up and take the chiplead, I don't see why you would not take it, even at the risk of bubbling. Payouts are 50%, 30%, and 20% no?

[Actuary 3]

No......I mean obviously cashing is the first priority in an sng, but when you get a chance to double up and take the chiplead, I don't see why you would not take it, even at the risk of bubbling. Payouts are 50%, 30%, and 20% no?

yeah.But I'd fold 88 here. (w/o more read on SB and how often he is doing this and considering I feel decent to beat at least ooe of the other shorties into the $$$)even though I could dbl up.

[timwakefield 68]

yeah.But I'd fold 88 here.even though I could dbl up.

Yes but not QQ!Actuary I want your input on my AQ question (in the "Final Table" thread).

[Actuary 3]

Yes but not QQ!Actuary I want your input on my AQ question (in the "Final Table" thread).

flattery will get u everywhere...and so will my boredom at work

[shpaget 0]

No......I mean obviously cashing is the first priority in an sng, but when you get a chance to double up and take the chiplead, I don't see why you would not take it, even at the risk of bubbling. Payouts are 50%, 30%, and 20% no?

If you take the original scenario and change chipstacks to:chipleader 7500 SByou 5500 BB3rd 1500shortstack 500this becomes a fold. (along with a number of other chipstack scenarios where one player is significantly shorter than the other 3)SB's range is the same...your odds againts the range are the same...but your chances of cashing are much greater than 25% if you fold. ie. the downside of calling far outweighs the downside of folding, and the upside of calling likely don't cover the difference.

[psujohn 0]

No inconsistency:Scenario A...chipleader M7, you M4.5, "short" stacks, M3, M3..chipleader is barely double shortstack, only 50% more than 2nd.Scenaro B...you call and win...you M9, former chipleader M2, others M3, M3 and one has just posted BB. You have more than half the total chips now, and more than 3 times your closest opponent....you can lose two all-ins and still have chips.See the difference?Here's the bottom line - against SB's range of hands you are likely 3:1.That means if you call you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times.And if you fold you come in fourth 1 out of 4 times, because the blinds and chipstacks make everyone virtually equal....really, you have less than 27% of total chips...so, you're 1/4 to finish out of the money.So, if calling and folding have the same downside, calling is the clear play because it has the greater upside.

I'm not disputing that calling and winning puts you in a better spot than the current CL. I'm just disputing how much better of a spot it is. If you call and win and then one of the villains takes out another you're sitting with an M of 9 vs and M of 6. Hardly a dominating lead. Even with an M of 9 vs a couple of 3's you're looking at push/fold poker. Even being better than your opponents at push/fold you're still in a situation where luck has a lot to do with the outcome.I'm not disputing your "bottom line" conclusion either. I suspect that the vast majority of the time we have villain drawing to 2 or 3 outs and so our odds of going out on this hand aren't any worse than our odds of going out on some other hand before the money.It's just that a lot of time we see MTT strategy applied to SNGs. In an MTT it's often correct to take a coinflip in an attempt to double before the bubble bursts. In an MTT there's lots of poker to play once you're ITM and (especially in the large field MTTs) playing for anything less than the FT is stupid. In SNGs going into the final 3 with 12K vs 4k, 4K isn't as big of a chip lead as it would seem. Specially with 400/800 blinds.

[timwakefield 68]

If you take the original scenario and change chipstacks to:chipleader 7500 SByou 5500 BB3rd 1500shortstack 500this becomes a fold. (along with a number of other chipstack scenarios where one player is significantly shorter than the other 3)SB's range is the same...your odds againts the range are the same...but your chances of cashing are much greater than 25% if you fold. ie. the downside of calling far outweighs the downside of folding, and the upside of calling likely don't cover the difference.

Good point, but with the chipstacks as they were isn't it an easy call?

[shpaget 0]

I'm not disputing that calling and winning puts you in a better spot than the current CL. I'm just disputing how much better of a spot it is. If you call and win and then one of the villains takes out another you're sitting with an M of 9 vs and M of 6. Hardly a dominating lead. Even with an M of 9 vs a couple of 3's you're looking at push/fold poker. Even being better than your opponents at push/fold you're still in a situation where luck has a lot to do with the outcome.

Yes, but now you're in the money, an outcome not ensured by folding, and you are now in top two, by your scenario, an outcome not reached 50% of the time if you fold...which, most importantly, is just one scenario...you are just as likely to knock out the third place guy, giving you ~12k to 3k lead, and more importantly, you can't be knocked out by either on the first try. Push/fold poker gives advantage to the guy who can lose 2 all-ins and still have chips over the guy who must win two consecutive all-ins to stay alive.

In SNGs going into the final 3 with 12K vs 4k, 4K isn't as big of a chip lead as it would seem. Specially with 400/800 blinds.

No, it's not...BUT...if, as you say, it's mostly luck at this point (or more luck than other points), wouldn't that, logically, mean that, if you have 12k and two players each have 4k, you would win 6 in 10 times? If luck were the driving element, and skill was equal.

Good point, but with the chipstacks as they were isn't it an easy call?

Yes - I think my cutoff here is somewhere in the 77-99 range.

[iggymcfly 0]

wtf are you smoking???Go back and read my posts again...I've essentially stated exactly what you did, with the minor elimation of Q9s (and I actually agree with you there).

Never mind, I skimmed over your post and I misread it. You were talking about cutoff hands to call with and for some reason, I thought you were talking about the villian's range. I'm retarded.

[HtotheNootch 0]

Just for fun, I ran this through SnG Power Tools. It's not even close on the bubble.Against a Tight Player (66+, A-10s+, A-J+), a Call is + 4.2% EV. It only goes up from there. Now that we've got a computer simulation out of the way, I personally think that we're look at far weaker than the tight range. Big hands want action there. A big hand isn't looking to steal 600 in chips. AA, or KK is looking to get action from the BB, not blow them out of the water.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Must we re-hash what the ultimate objective is in a SNG again? Clearly, we must, as many of the opinionators clearly don't understand that your objective isn't to win a SNG, it is to make it to the money (and go for the win from there). Huge difference between a SNG and a MTT that many don't seem to grasp.Now, that being said, in actual practise I think this would be a very difficult fold to make, but it certainly can't be faulted. Nor could a call however with our queens. Change the scenario to us holding say tens, and it is much clearer IMO (it's a fold no questions asked). Calling here and losing wins us nothing. Calling here and winning still wins us nothing except more chips. Folding doesn't cost us at all (except maybe our pride).

[zimmer4141 0]

I call this as quick as I can. The shortstacks aren't short enough that we can count on cashing with our stack. SB's range is so wide, I'm pushing in SB with almost any 2 here. Take your chances as likely a 2-1 favorite or better, and then you can truly bully after that with your stack.

[Actuary 3]

Rocket:damnit!no.We are not ahead of the small stacks enough to fold.You must play in tournies where they fold to pushes from short stacks all the time and thus you can survive that way. But in the real world, you actually should call all in from bigger stacks sometimes.99 is close.horrrrrrrrrrible.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Rocket:damnit!no.We are not ahead of the small stacks enough to fold.You must play in tournies where they fold to pushes from short stacks all the time and thus you can survive that way. But in the real world, you actually should call all in from bigger stacks sometimes.99 is close.horrrrrrrrrrible.

Hey, I said it would be very hard to do in the field of battle with the queens, but doubt I would/could. I don't think it is that bad a play though (folding), depending on your opponents (if you are way better than two of your opponents and know they will make clear mistakes that will probably bust themselves for example).

[Actuary 3]

no.blinds too high to "outplay" them.I've played 400 6 Man tournies in last 2 months. (I"m sure that's not a lot compared to many)I"m on in the Bubble scenario probably 60% (given my 40% ITM), if you don't call here you will be pushing or calling as a dog or a much much smaller favorite eventually..very likely.there are times to hold onto stuff like "first in vigor" and "GAP theory" all that breaks down when its 3 reltive short stacks and you have Q freakin Q

[shpaget 0]

Must we re-hash what the ultimate objective is in a SNG again? Clearly, we must, as many of the opinionators clearly don't understand that your objective isn't to win a SNG, it is to make it to the money (and go for the win from there). Huge difference between a SNG and a MTT that many don't seem to grasp.Now, that being said, in actual practise I think this would be a very difficult fold to make, but it certainly can't be faulted. Nor could a call however with our queens. Change the scenario to us holding say tens, and it is much clearer IMO (it's a fold no questions asked). Calling here and losing wins us nothing. Calling here and winning still wins us nothing except more chips. Folding doesn't cost us at all (except maybe our pride).

To rehash what I said earlier...either you missed it, or you disagree with it or my assumptions (you haven't said) or you just don't think my opinion warrants merit, but I'll repeat anyway, because I'm a stubborn sob.If you call you come in fourth 1/4 of the time.If you fold you come in fourth 1/4 of the time.When calling and folding have virtually the same downside you must compare the upside, and calling has the clearly superior upside.Yes, a sng's primary goal is to get into the money...the interesting part of this hand is that calling and folding give you almost the exact same chance of missing the money...it is calling that provides the extra advantage in not only making the money, but winning.I believe, for me, 99 is a definite fold, and TT is very close, but probably also a fold. And, QQ, and perhaps KK and even AA, is a definite fold if the stacks were differently distributed to involve a definitive shortstack.

[Rocketwadster 0]

To rehash what I said earlier...either you missed it, or you disagree with it or my assumptions (you haven't said) or you just don't think my opinion warrants merit, but I'll repeat anyway, because I'm a stubborn sob.didnt see it/skimmed by it/just made a general statement in my post. Nothing against what you may or may not have said.If you call you come in fourth 1/4 of the time.If you fold you come in fourth 1/4 of the time.No you don't. If you call and lose you come in fourth 100% of the time. If you call and win you aren't guaranteed anything, but you will have that many more chips, which should allow you to not come in fourth more often than not.When calling and folding have virtually the same downside you must compare the upside, and calling has the clearly superior upside.Yes, a sng's primary goal is to get into the money...the interesting part of this hand is that calling and folding give you almost the exact same chance of missing the money...it is calling that provides the extra advantage in not only making the money, but winning.I believe, for me, 99 is a definite fold, and TT is very close, but probably also a fold. And, QQ, and perhaps KK and even AA, is a definite fold if the stacks were differently distributed to involve a definitive shortstack.

[Actuary 3]

Rocket.you should really be embarrassed.He's not saying if you lose you come in 4th 1/4 of the time.But you know that, right? So with the same downside, why not take the better upside?If you disagree with the percentages, give a range and your own percentages.

[shpaget 0]

No you don't. If you call and lose you come in fourth 100% of the time. If you call and win you aren't guaranteed anything, but you will have that many more chips, which should allow you to not come in fourth more often than not.

Completely wrong way to look at it.If you are 3:1 against his range, which is more than reasonable, then:If you call you lose 1/4 of the time, meaning you finish out of the money.If you call you win 3/4 of the time, putting you in a great chip position (8000, 2500, 2500, 2000)...this virtually guarantees you the money, and gives you higher than average chances of of winning, much higher than the 25% chance you have by just being 1 of 4 players.If you fold you are left with ~25% of the chips...with the blinds as high as they are, and with the shortstacks as close to you as they are (you M4.5, them M3), you are, for all intents and purposes, at the mercy of the cards, and, give or take a few percentage points, you will finish out of the money 1/4 of the time....and you will win 1/4 of the time...perhaps even a bit less as the chipleader has a minor edge, but enough to make a difference in the long run.Though they can't bust you, you and the "short" stacks are in the same boat....and the chipleader ain't the far off.So:Call - come in fourth very close to 1/4 of the time, finish in money very close to 3/4 of the time, win somewhere between 1/4 and half the time.Fold - come in fourth very close to 1/4 of the time, finish in money very close to 3/4 of the time, win up to 1/4 of the time.A call also likely means a top 2 finish more often than a fold.

[Rocketwadster 0]

Rocket.you should really be embarrassed.He's not saying if you lose you come in 4th 1/4 of the time.But you know that, right? So with the same downside, why not take the better upside?If you disagree with the percentages, give a range and your own percentages.

What he typed was 100% incorrect the way it was written (but you know that right?). I corrected him. If you were to change the stack sizes to reflect much smaller short-stacks, you can clearly see the benefits of folding the larger hands in this spot (at least I can). Since we don't have such drastic variances between the stacks, many of us (myself included), forget about the big picture here (to make the money) and only look at our cards as our direction for what to do here.That is all I am trying to say when I state that I believe (even though I probably wouldn't be able to do it at the table) that folding is correct here in the big picture, but calling could also be correct.

Completely wrong way to look at it.If you are 3:1 against his range, which is more than reasonable, then:If you call you lose 1/4 of the time, meaning you finish out of the money.If you call you win 3/4 of the time, putting you in a great chip position (8000, 2500, 2500, 2000)...this virtually guarantees you the money, and gives you higher than average chances of of winning, much higher than the 25% chance you have by just being 1 of 4 players.If you fold you are left with ~25% of the chips...with the blinds as high as they are, and with the shortstacks as close to you as they are (you M4.5, them M3), you are, for all intents and purposes, at the mercy of the cards, and, give or take a few percentage points, you will finish out of the money 1/4 of the time....and you will win 1/4 of the time...perhaps even a bit less as the chipleader has a minor edge, but enough to make a difference in the long run.Though they can't bust you, you and the "short" stacks are in the same boat....and the chipleader ain't the far off.So:Call - come in fourth 1/4 of the time, finish in money very close to 3/4 of the time, win somewhere between 1/4 and half the time.Fold - come in fourth 1/4 of the time, finish in money very close to 3/4 of the time, win up to 1/4 of the time.A call also likely means a top 2 finish more often than a fold.

Now THAT is a much better and clearer explanation as to your points.

[Actuary 3]

What he typed was 100% incorrect the way it was written (but you know that right?). I corrected him.

no.He said if you call you come in 4th 1/4 of the time. That is correct based on his assumption of being 3:1 on the hand.He did not add the small percentage that you still come in 4th even if you win that hand..but it's imaterial and these are round numbersSpecifically tell me where this is wrong?What you sais is also correct, but it does not mean his was wrong.And, you realize I play 5-10 of these a day, right?You know I like money right?I don't "forget" I"m on the bubble.Quit treating us like baby's and idiots that need reminding of such basic concepts.Please address how close we are to the other stacks and the likelyhood we are ever to get a better hand and left at the mercy of playing/calling with much worse. You think the shorties won't call our pushes?

[Rocketwadster 0]

I was just re-reading the entire topic again - didnt realize it was that old...lolYou must REALLY be bored at work.Why have you stated that I should be embarrased for thinking it can go either way, when Smash himself said it was a clear fold (and later indicated its a fold, but close), and WRTO himself said it was a fold, among others. Should THEY not also be embarrased?Anyone who folds here for the right reasons has nothing to be embarrased by. The people who advocated folding because our opponent may get lucky do.lol

[Actuary 3]

Smash says calling is better now, but close.Again you misread.WRTO is a tourney authority?A year ago?that was all before HoH and we all learned more about shortstack play.I think your logic is embarrissing and your inability to answer questions directly and so forth, not that you think folding is a long term better decision.That's just bad judgement.