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my main problem w/ mathguyism...


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Is that I suck SUCK at math..and I barely even understand what you guys are saying, let alone know how you came to the conclusion that a the villian will have you beat 10% of the time,..SSOOO I need a math tutor like I did all through middle school...ok so maybe not a tutor tutor, but if sum1 would like to explain the basic math concepts I would very much apreciate it. You see, I think that perfecting all those small mathematical edges and at least knowing why I'm doing what I'm doing I will be a three times better player than what I am now. sum of my questions are the following. (sum I kinda know, but I need a better understanding of them)pot odds I have downfold equity,,how do you know what percentage of the time your opponents will fold? is this just a guesstimate?pot equity- Let me give this a shot, if there are 6ppl in the flop and the pot is 12SB I have pot equity to bet a gut shot? or if the pot is 6sb and I have 2 opponents both acting after me, I can bet out with a nut flush draw on the flop? this is a big one for me..to know your odds when there are two cards to come do you just divide your regular odds by 2? eg. for the next card to give you a flush its 4.2 to 1 so on the flop for you to hit your flush by the river its 2 to 1 ish?? ...Im sure Im forgetting a lot of math stuff, but I'll leave it at these for now, ill post a sequal to this if I remember anything else..(if you feel like explaining another math thing feel free)see the thing is that Its harder for me to learn from books, I usually need easy examples, SSHE does a good job at giving some but others are still not very clear to me. So make sure you explain this in retard, so that i can get it :- ).. and hopefully this will help some other non math guys understand this stuff.(btw, this summer I made a promise to never play out of my BR and to plug every leak in my game possible, so I might be driving you guys nuts with questions, be patient and understand that you too, were once as confused as I am) thanks.

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let alone know how you came to the conclusion that a the villian will have you beat 10% of the time
While its just my opinion, when I usually see people make comments like that, I dont put any faith at all in the number they throw out there. Most of the time the number they use is just some arbitrary number they just pulled out of thin air. Just my opinion.Now if they are talking about the odds based on outs, then thats different.
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let alone know how you came to the conclusion that a the villian will have you beat 10% of the time
While its just my opinion, when I usually see people make comments like that, I dont put any faith at all in the number they throw out there. Most of the time the number they use is just some arbitrary number they just pulled out of thin air. Just my opinion.Now if they are talking about the odds based on outs, then thats different.
I see this waaaay to often to think they're pulling it out of their ass, you know, the raise the river cuz you have him 70% of the time and its +EV type thing.
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I'll tackle the pot equity question. Say you're playing limit HE and you've just gone to the flop 4-handed with position. You've flopped a flush draw and nothing else. First player bets, next two players call. If you can raise here and get all 3 players to call another bet, you're getting your money in good. This is because you have a ~35% chance of making your flush by the river, but you're only putting in 25% of the money! Your pot equity in this situation is great so get as many bets in with these 3 as you can!

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I'll tackle the pot equity question. Say you're playing limit HE and you've just gone to the flop 4-handed with position. You've flopped a flush draw and nothing else. First player bets, next two players call. If you can raise here and get all 3 players to call another bet, you're getting your money in good. This is because you have a ~35% chance of making your flush by the river, but you're only putting in 25% of the money! Your pot equity in this situation is great so get as many bets in with these 3 as you can!
K, this is kinda what I thought, now I completely get it,,,thanks for putting it in retard. ..
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let alone know how you came to the conclusion that a the villian will have you beat 10% of the time
While its just my opinion, when I usually see people make comments like that, I dont put any faith at all in the number they throw out there. Most of the time the number they use is just some arbitrary number they just pulled out of thin air. Just my opinion.Now if they are talking about the odds based on outs, then thats different.
It seems like that at first.... I feel you.But here's the idea: you put an opponent on a RANGE of hands. What percentage of the time do you have to be ahead to make betting profitable? Raising? You can't realistically say "he's got the flush 1/3 times." But what you CAN do is figure out the range of hands he might play like he did (ie, raise the flop, check the turn, raise the river), and figure what the odds are he has a hand that's ahead of yours. What odds is the pot giving you? Will a call be profitable in the longrun? That's the ideaIce
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pot odds I have down
Then you've got about 90% of the math that you'll use at the table. Yes, I just made that number up.
fold equity,,how do you know what percentage of the time your opponents will fold? is this just a guesstimate?
Pretty much. When people talk about fold equity, they're talking about whether your past actions (both in this hand, and in every hand the other player has seen) might induce another player to fold. Calling it equity makes it sound like it's a math term, really it applies more to the reading side of the game - if you can figure out whether the other guy sees you as strong or weak, you'll have an idea of how much fold equity you have, or in other words how likely he is to fold if you show aggression.
pot equity- Let me give this a shot, if there are 6ppl in the flop and the pot is 12SB I have pot equity to bet a gut shot? or if the pot is 6sb and I have 2 opponents both acting after me, I can bet out with a nut flush draw on the flop?
Pot equity is usually used to mean the likelihood that you'll win the pot. For example, if you've got AA and two other players see the flop, you likely have a 60% or better chance of winning the pot if everybody sticks around to the end, and you could also say you have a pot equity of 60%. Anytime your pot equity is greater than your contribution to the pot, you're in good shape - in the above example you're contributing about 33% of the money, but have a 60% chance to take the pot, meaning in the long run you'll be a big winner.
this is a big one for me..to know your odds when there are two cards to come do you just divide your regular odds by 2? eg. for the next card to give you a flush its 4.2 to 1 so on the flop for you to hit your flush by the river its 2 to 1 ish??
The shortcut I use is: count your outs, double them, then multiply by the number of cards to come. That's the percent chance that you'll hit by the river. For example, with a four-flush on the flop you've got 9 outs, and 2 cards to come. 9*2*2 = 36, so about a 36% chance you'll hit. Odds of that happening are 64-36, which reduces to a little better than 2-1. I like that method better because it means I don't have to remember the odds for every possible draw, just count the outs and work from there.Hope that helps, let me know if it wasn't clear.
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...Im sure Im forgetting a lot of math stuff, but I'll leave it at these for now, ill post a sequal to this if I remember anything else..(if you feel like explaining another math thing feel free)
Oh yeah, one more common one occurred to me: EV. EV stands for Expected Value, and it refers to the amount you'll win or lose by performing some action in a specific situation over time. Think of it as playing out the same situation a million times, recording all your wins and losses, and averaging the results. Actions that are +EV will make you money in the long term, actions that are -EV will lose you money in the long term.
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I think Pot Equity is better described as your abstract share of the pot. It's useful in deciding whether you should call/fold or raise/fold.You calculate it as the size of the pot times your chances of winning it. Suppose you're heads up. You hit a set on the flop but there's a flush draw you're sure your opponent is on. There are 10 bets in the pot. For the sake of simplicity, ignore all other outs (including your full house ones--don't do this if the situation actually arises).He'll win the pot 35% of the time by completing his flush. His equity is (.35)(10)= 3.5 bets. You have (.65)(10) = 6.5 bets.You have an equity edge. Even with only 3.5 bets, he still should call--folding costs him 1 bet out of his "share" of 3.5.I think you're overestimating the importance of percentages. Learn odds against--MUCH more useful for figuring pot odds and whatnot. As for doing them, you cannot accurately calculate these simply with more than a card to come. With a flush draw for the river, you have 9/46 = around a 24% chance to win. It does not follow that with two cards to come, you have a 48% chance. You have a 35% chance. The only way to figure that is to do the actual probability bullshit--figure every possible combination of cards that will help you, and every possible combination of cards that could come. That's in the thousands. Don't do that. Just memorize the odds against for 2 cards to come as well as one.

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You have an equity edge. Even with only 3.5 bets, he still should call--folding costs him 1 bet out of his "share" of 3.5.
As somewhat of a non-mathy myself, who has learned a bit of this stuff out of poker necessity...I think it's easier to look at whether to call a bet here the way Wildcat does in his last paragraph, or the "pot odds" side of the coin. The villain is right to call your bet into a 10 bet pot, because the pot is now paying him 11-1 on hand that will hit with one card to come (and as Wildcat says you should generally be figuring your odds with one card to come), about 18% of the time.Pot equity (at least in my mind) help determine whether or not to bet into a pot (or raise), pot odds help to determine whether or not to call a bet into the pot. I know that's probably an oversimplification though...
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let alone know how you came to the conclusion that a the villian will have you beat 10% of the time
While its just my opinion, when I usually see people make comments like that, I dont put any faith at all in the number they throw out there. Most of the time the number they use is just some arbitrary number they just pulled out of thin air. Just my opinion.Now if they are talking about the odds based on outs, then thats different.
It seems like that at first.... I feel you.But here's the idea: you put an opponent on a RANGE of hands. What percentage of the time do you have to be ahead to make betting profitable? Raising? You can't realistically say "he's got the flush 1/3 times." But what you CAN do is figure out the range of hands he might play like he did (ie, raise the flop, check the turn, raise the river), and figure what the odds are he has a hand that's ahead of yours. What odds is the pot giving you? Will a call be profitable in the longrun? That's the ideaIce
does every hand in the range of hands count the same?say you have him on a range of hands, by the way he played it that are AA,KK,AcKc, two club cards the board, by the river is As 8c, 2c, 4d, Kd.. I have 88now, out of those four hands do they all count the same? in other words, there is a 25% chance that he has any of the four hands so that I am beat, 50% of the time? or does AA KK count less simply because its much easier for the villian to have any two clubs, than for him to have either AA KK? so do you reduce it to something like he'll have AA 13% KK 13% two clubs 50% and Ac Kc 22% two random cards 2%... ( the percentages after the hands are obviously pure guesses, just to illustrate my point)thanks,ps.. thanks for all the feed back, I understood t everything. and to AVSFAN I'll edit the ism :-)
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does every hand in the range of hands count the same?say you have him on a range of hands, by the way he played it that are AA,KK,AcKc, two club cards  the board, by the river is  As 8c, 2c, 4d, Kd..  I have 88now, out of those four hands do they all count the same? in other words, there is a 25% chance that he has any of the four hands so that I am beat, 50% of the time?  
No. There are 6 ways he could have AA, 6 ways he could have KK, 1 way he could have AcKc. If he'd play AQc, AJc, KQc, and KJc the same exact way too (but not, say, 5c6c, or KTc, because he raised two limpers in MP before the flop), there are 4 other flushes he could realistically have. Hypothetically, you could say the odds are 12-5 in favor of your having the best hand. So you can make the call when he's giving the appropriate odds. The trick is figuring out how he'll play these hands, and putting him on a good range. It's most easily done in tournaments when you think someone's on a steal. You put him on a range of hands (AA-99, AKs-TJ0)... you can then decide whether your KQ is worth of an all-in call based on his bet.Ice
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does every hand in the range of hands count the same?No they don't. The thing here is that if he is likely to play all these the same way, the probabilities of him having these hands are different. Pocket pairs are made less ways than high cards. I will put him on a larger range for simplicities sake here. Let's say he can have AK, AQ, AA, KK, or any two high cards (A-10) that are suited in clubs. I think you can make AK (as well as AQ) 16 ways, while pocket pairs 6 different ways. The hands with two clubs can be made 8 ways (Note that AKc and AQc are already counted). This is where estimating comes into play. Maybe he has the pocket pairs 25%, the two clubs 25%, and the high cards (AK, AQ) 40%, and he is bluffing 10%. This is pretty rough, but I think accurate enough. I would think AQ/AK would show up more than high cards in clubs. You can reason that about 50% you are winning here (maybe more, maybe less), so you can call anything. You can do these things on the flop too, when your opponent may have a chance to outdraw you also. Here are the percentages that you have them beat by the river, so you can figure out if you want to put your money in (if the situation were to come up):10% bluff - About 100% beat.Two clubs - Beat about 75% of the time (remember, some of his outs make you a full house).AK / AQ - Beat about 98% of the time. AA / AK - Beat about 2% of the time. You then multiply the percentage he has it vs. % winning, so:bluff = .10 * 100 = 10%Two Clubs = .25 * 75 = 19%AK / AQ = .40 * 98 = 39%AA/AK = .25 * 2 ~ 0% = 0 %Total = 68% !!!! Note that these percentages for the hands he had were just estimated. If he is tighter, the probability of AA and KK should be more, and the bluffing may be reduced lower (to like 5% of the time maybe). Fact is almost 70% of the time you will have the best hand in this example. Read Harrington on Hold Em. He does a bit of this in there, and it really enlightened me. Pot Equity: This has been explained before, but I think it's easiest to see it like this. If you are in a pot with 3 others (so four total), to break even, you would need to get 25% of the money every time you played). With 5 players, it would be 20%. With n players, it's 100/n. See? Your pot equity is basically how much you will win the pot by the end of the hand. If you have the nut flush draw, and you know you aren't gonna end up being up against a full house or better, your pot equity is 35%, because it comes in a bit more than 2 to 1. So if you can bet into two people and you know they will call, that is profitable, because your average equity to break even would be 33%, and your draw comes in 35%. In a four handed game, if everyone would call, you would still be coming in at 35%, but you would only need 25% equity for profit. Now this situation is more possible. Notice that since 3 others are calling, you are getting 3 to 1 on a 2 to 1 shot. THAT IS GOOD!Calculating percentages: This has been said, but there needs to be a disclaimer. You calculate your outs, then double them, and multiply them by how many cards to come. A flush draw for instance, 9 outs, * 2 * 2 (for two cards to come) = 36%. This is a bit off! (1%). As the number of outs gets higher, this doesn't work all that well. Just know at 14 outs, you are about even money to make it, and 15 outs, you are a slight favorite (53%). But check it: 15 * 4 = 60%. So it's off! 14 outs = 14 * 4 = 56%! OFF! So just remember, the lesser # of outs, the more accurate, and at 14 you hit about 50% of the time. I realize this post was probably written terribly, and I am not the best writer, but i think it has some decent stuff written in it. Good luck sir. :club:

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I realize this post was probably written terribly, and I am not the best writer, but i think it has some decent stuff written in it. Good luck sir. :club:
wow great stuff man, all of it. (and everyone else's replies too, thanks)I understood it well finaly, Harrington on holdem is in the mail, so Im sure after my 4hr plain ride back home I will have a boat load of questions for you guys :-). Sootah, for the last example you gave about the percentage with more cards to come, is there a shortcut to knowing this if the *4 thing is off? or do I just need to memorize what it is for most outs and then realize that after 14 outs I call/raise with anything? thanks
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I realize this post was probably written terribly, and I am not the best writer, but i think it has some decent stuff written in it. Good luck sir. :club:
wow great stuff man, all of it. (and everyone else's replies too, thanks)I understood it well finaly, Harrington on holdem is in the mail, so Im sure after my 4hr plain ride back home I will have a boat load of questions for you guys :-). Sootah, for the last example you gave about the percentage with more cards to come, is there a shortcut to knowing this if the *4 thing is off? or do I just need to memorize what it is for most outs and then realize that after 14 outs I call/raise with anything? thanks
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/a...d=13913&m_id=88
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Sootah, for the last example you gave about the percentage with more cards to come, is there a shortcut to knowing this if the *4 thing is off?Well, the *4 is for two cards to come, remember that. Basically, rough estimates are:Flush - About 4 to 1 for one card, 2 to 1 for twoStraight - About 5 to 1 for one card, 2 to 1 for bothBasically, I just remember that flushes (9 outs) hit about 35% of the time with two, and 14 outs is about 50%, so you can kinda estimate the percentages in between. I am sure if you search the net you can find a chart that has the percentages. The odds (like 2 to 1 or 3 to 1, etc...) are important to, so learn those from the chart given. Some of them are inconsequential or they don't come up that much (when they do, you can just figure it out from the percentages). You can also do it the brute force way for one card to come. Let's say you count your outs and you have 12 cards, (overcard and a flush or something). There is only the river to come. There are 46 unseen cards, and 12 make your hand. 12 help, 34 don't, so that's 6 to 17, or about 1 to 3. So if your opponent bets, 30 into a pot of 100, that is 30 to 130, or about 4.3 to 1, making an easy call. Remember sometimes if your hand is concealed you can call if you don't have the odds, as long as it's reasonably close, since you may be able to score more money off of him on the next round, making the call on the earlier street correct. This is called implied odds. :club: Enjoy Harrington on Hold Em! The second one is coming out soon. I don't look at this forum too often, so if you have any questions that you want me to answer, just PM me. I am sure others can help you though. Oh, and another thing I forgot to mention. Some outs aren't complete outs. Let's take up this situation: You have Ah5h and a guy from late position raises you. You call and the flop is Th Qh 3d. Note that in this situation, if he has a hand like QJ, KT, or KQ, you indeed have 12 outs (nine hearts, 3 Aces), but if he has something like AT, AQ, TT, QQ, or 33, you have less. In the first two cases you have 9 outs, in the TT or QQ case, and in the rest you have 8 or 9. It would probably be a bit optimistic to give your hand all those outs, so maybe give it 10 outs. 9 for the flush and 1 for the 3 Aces. This is because sometimes the A won't be good, and you could be costing yourself a bit of money. Of course, the 10 is an estimate. But it's somewhere between 9 and 12, depending on the situation. :roll:EDIT: I found a chart with the percentages per outs....http://www.foldorraise.com/outscalculator.phpHave fun!

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if you play at pokerroom, go to their store, splurge 10 bucks or so, and buy the mousepad. it has a chart on it for # of outs and the relative percentages for one and two cards to come. a very handy thing to have when you're trying to figure out a tight call/bet/fold.that mousepad took the place of the little excel spreadsheet i had printed and pinned to the wall by my monitor. :-)

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if you play at pokerroom, go to their store, splurge 10 bucks or so, and buy the mousepad. it has a chart on it for # of outs and the relative percentages for one and two cards to come. a very handy thing to have when you're trying to figure out a tight call/bet/fold.that mousepad took the place of the little excel spreadsheet i had printed and pinned to the wall by my monitor. :-)
good idea,..
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