justblaze 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 someone posted this to another forum, and it has sparked some interesting discussion. what would you do on the turn? river? Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converterPreflop: Hero is Button with [Qd], [Qc]. 2 folds, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.Flop: (9.50 SB) [Js], [7s], [6s] (3 players)BB bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.Turn: (7.75 BB) [Jc] (3 players)BB bets, UTG+2 calls.Final Pot: 9.75 BB Link to post Share on other sites
amarillotg 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 :? im not really sure to tell you the truth. is the BB a complete donk or a respected player? i think hero is pretty likely to be behind and possibly drawing to 2 outs. the pot is a decent size but not very large. i absolutely hate folding, but i think im laying this one down. Link to post Share on other sites
justblaze 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Author Share Posted June 3, 2005 :? im not really sure to tell you the truth. is the BB a complete donk or a respected player? i think hero is pretty likely to be behind and possibly drawing to 2 outs. the pot is a decent size but not very large. i absolutely hate folding, but i think im laying this one down.its tricky. you're probably beat, but it seems like a weird line to take with a J for the bettor. If i were him, id try to checkraise the turn. I could easily see you being up against 99 and a big spade. Most people have said fold, but my gut reaction is call it down. at 2-4, ive seen worse hands than 99 bet this turn. Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 :? im not really sure to tell you the truth. is the BB a complete donk or a respected player? i think hero is pretty likely to be behind and possibly drawing to 2 outs. the pot is a decent size but not very large. i absolutely hate folding, but i think im laying this one down.its tricky. you're probably beat, but it seems like a weird line to take with a J for the bettor. If i were him, id try to checkraise the turn. I could easily see you being up against 99 and a big spade. Most people have said fold, but my gut reaction is call it down. at 2-4, ive seen worse hands than 99 bet this turn.I agree, call down. If the 4th spade hits the river and you're bet into, only call if it's a HU showdown. As justblaze said, there's some crazy plays out there at 2/4 so you can't be sure enough to fold here. You only have to win the hand about 15-20% of the time for it to be profitable including the river call so it's worth it IMO.Zara Link to post Share on other sites
MrNiceGuy 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 Hmmm.... Calling down is correct if you're going to win the pot at least once out of every 5-6 times; if you're ahead on the turn, at least 8 cards will presumably hurt you (any spade other than the Q) and probably an additional 1-8 or so cards would hurt you as well, although we don't know what they are.I agree that BB's play doesn't look like a J, although it's possible, and he almost certainly doesn't have an overpair. You're ahead of TT, 99, and 88, and behind 77 and 66 (which I doubt he has based on his flop play). He could also have just the As, although I think UTG+2 is very likely to hold that card.I think BB's most likely hands are a J with a mediocre kicker, TT, 99, or 88, or the As. Possibilities for each hand: QJ-4 JT-8 J9-8 TT-6 99-6 88-6. AsK-3 AsQ-1 AsT-3. Based on these hands, you're ahead around half the time (as long as the river is not a spade). Other hands are possible, but I think you're at least 1/4 to win at showdown.[EDIT: AJ and KJ are real possibilities too, (8 ways each) - If I'm BB, I probably lead that flop rather than c/r, both to see if hero raises (in which case he probably has an overpair) and because I'm not sure that hero will autobet that scary flop with just overcards. But including these still leaves you ahead about 1/3 times, in which case I'd guess you're about 1/4 to still be ahead after the river.]So I agree with justblaze, I think this should be called down. (Obviously raise the river if a Q hits; and if a spade hits I think I'm folding the river to a bet and a call, or certainly to a bet and a raise.)[EDIT: Unless you think BB might take this stop-n-go line with a made flush. Then I think that might tilt this toward a fold on the turn. But, if you are against a made flush, you have at least 2 Q outs, and probably 2 J outs, on the river, which would give you almost enough outs to justify calling the turn on pot odds alone- then you probably have to call the river too for one more bet if it's a blank.] Link to post Share on other sites
garamond10pt 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 What about the UTG+2? Are we putting him on a large spade? I think his two calls on the flop and call on the turn (when he could expect to put in at least another bet or two to see the river) makes him likely for either a scared jack or the As. Link to post Share on other sites
justblaze 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Author Share Posted June 3, 2005 What about the UTG+2? Are we putting him on a large spade? I think his two calls on the flop and call on the turn (when he could expect to put in at least another bet or two to see the river) makes him likely for either a scared jack or the As.ive got him on a big spade, for sure. If he's got the J, he'll let us know on the turn, especially with that kinda board. Link to post Share on other sites
garamond10pt 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 What about the UTG+2? Are we putting him on a large spade? I think his two calls on the flop and call on the turn (when he could expect to put in at least another bet or two to see the river) makes him likely for either a scared jack or the As.ive got him on a big spade, for sure. If he's got the J, he'll let us know on the turn, especially with that kinda board.Would he stay with the Ks, especially with that action? If he has the As, then it's more likely that the BB has something substantial. Link to post Share on other sites
wrto4556 0 Posted June 4, 2005 Share Posted June 4, 2005 :? im not really sure to tell you the truth. is the BB a complete donk or a respected player? i think hero is pretty likely to be behind and possibly drawing to 2 outs. the pot is a decent size but not very large. i absolutely hate folding, but i think im laying this one down.its tricky. you're probably beat, but it seems like a weird line to take with a J for the bettor. If i were him, id try to checkraise the turn. I could easily see you being up against 99 and a big spade. Most people have said fold, but my gut reaction is call it down. at 2-4, ive seen worse hands than 99 bet this turn.You wouldnt want to check/raise the turn and give a free card to A K . I play a J the same way as villian. Having said that, he's not me, and could easily have A ,8 , or 88. Link to post Share on other sites
wrto4556 0 Posted June 4, 2005 Share Posted June 4, 2005 :? im not really sure to tell you the truth. is the BB a complete donk or a respected player? i think hero is pretty likely to be behind and possibly drawing to 2 outs. the pot is a decent size but not very large. i absolutely hate folding, but i think im laying this one down.its tricky. you're probably beat, but it seems like a weird line to take with a J for the bettor. If i were him, id try to checkraise the turn. I could easily see you being up against 99 and a big spade. Most people have said fold, but my gut reaction is call it down. at 2-4, ive seen worse hands than 99 bet this turn.You wouldnt want to check/raise the turn and give a free card to A K . I play a J the same way as villian. Having said that, he's not me, and could easily have A ,7 , or 88. Link to post Share on other sites
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