Simulacra 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 I’m hoping for an odds calculation on this…I’m playing a 10-person SNG on UB. On hand #6 I get 99 and hit quads on the flop. THE VERY NEXT HAND I get AQo and make a set of Q on the flop. Everyone starts joking that I have quads again. I hit quads on the turn and the people at the table go crazy.What are the odds of this happening? I’ve posted the hand histories below if anyone is interested…I play under the name ThesisWriter. Hand #6290513-6 at SnG-0019e (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)Powered by UltimateBetStarted at 02/Jun/05 22:25:23 Sparty Girl is at seat 0 with 2120. Sweet Lou 2 is at seat 1 with 1350. Dragonista is at seat 3 with 980. 41hands is at seat 4 with 1150. monsterhunter is at seat 5 with 1380. gyto is at seat 6 with 1450. Giuseppe66 is at seat 7 with 3760. ThesisWriter is at seat 8 with 1380. def leppard is at seat 9 with 1430. The button is at seat 0. Sweet Lou 2 posts the small blind of 10. Dragonista posts the big blind of 20. Sparty Girl: -- -- Sweet Lou 2: -- -- Dragonista: -- -- 41hands: -- -- monsterhunter: -- -- gyto: -- -- Giuseppe66: -- -- ThesisWriter: 9s 9h def leppard: -- --Pre-flop: 41hands raises to 40. monsterhunter calls. gyto folds. Giuseppe66 folds. ThesisWriter re-raises to 190. def leppard folds. Sparty Girl folds. Sweet Lou 2 folds. Dragonista folds. 41hands calls. monsterhunter calls. Flop (board: 9d 9c 5h): 41hands checks. monsterhunter bets 600. ThesisWriter calls. 41hands folds. Turn (board: 9d 9c 5h Ks): monsterhunter goes all-in for 590. ThesisWriter goes all-in for 590. Tournament all-in showdown -- players show: monsterhunter shows 8d Kd. ThesisWriter shows 9s 9h. River (board: 9d 9c 5h Ks 8s): (no action in this round) Showdown: monsterhunter has 8d Kd 9d 9c Ks: two pair, kings and nines. ThesisWriter has 9s 9h 9d 9c Ks: four nines. Hand #6290513-6 Summary: No rake is taken for this hand. ThesisWriter wins 2980 with four nines.Hand #6290513-7 at SnG-0019e (No Limit Hold'em Sit and Go)Powered by UltimateBetStarted at 02/Jun/05 22:26:12 Sparty Girl is at seat 0 with 2120. Sweet Lou 2 is at seat 1 with 1340. Dragonista is at seat 3 with 960. 41hands is at seat 4 with 960. gyto is at seat 6 with 1450. Giuseppe66 is at seat 7 with 3760. ThesisWriter is at seat 8 with 2980. def leppard is at seat 9 with 1430. The button is at seat 1. Dragonista posts the small blind of 10. 41hands posts the big blind of 20. Sparty Girl: -- -- Sweet Lou 2: -- -- Dragonista: -- -- 41hands: -- -- gyto: -- -- Giuseppe66: -- -- ThesisWriter: Ad Qd def leppard: -- --Pre-flop: gyto folds. Giuseppe66 folds. ThesisWriter raises to 40. def leppard re-raises to 150. Sparty Girl folds. Sweet Lou 2 folds. Dragonista folds. 41hands folds. ThesisWriter calls. Flop (board: Qh 7h Qs): ThesisWriter checks. def leppard bets 330. ThesisWriter goes all-in for 2830. def leppard goes all-in for 1280. ThesisWriter is returned 1550 (uncalled). Tournament all-in showdown -- players show: ThesisWriter shows Ad Qd. def leppard shows Jd Js. Turn (board: Qh 7h Qs Qc): (no action in this round) River (board: Qh 7h Qs Qc 3s): (no action in this round) Showdown: ThesisWriter has Ad Qd Qh Qs Qc: four queens. def leppard has Jd Js Qh Qs Qc: full house, queens full of jacks. Hand #6290513-7 Summary: No rake is taken for this hand. ThesisWriter wins 2890 with four queens.---------------------------------------------------------------- Link to post Share on other sites
princeof56k 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 Take the odds of hitting quads once and square it. Link to post Share on other sites
Simulacra 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Author Share Posted June 3, 2005 so that would be... Link to post Share on other sites
EgyptianMagician 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 [13*3*2*48*47*46/(52!/45!7!7!)]^2(8094528/133784560)^2I think my math is off... but.. its... tiny. Link to post Share on other sites
DKE_XP120 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 I’m hoping for an odds calculation on this…YO MAMA Link to post Share on other sites
KingAustin 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 [13*3*2*48*47*46/(52!/45!7!7!)]^2(8094528/133784560)^2I think my math is off... but.. its... tiny.haha, that's awesome. Link to post Share on other sites
Nutcracker 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 More like 1*3/51*2/50*1/49*[7!/(4!*3!)] which is the chance of hitting quads on 4 straight cards times the number of ways you can get 4 cards out of 7 (this assumes a board quads counts).So on any given hand, you have about 1/595 chance of hitting quads.So the chance of it happening twice are 1/354025I thought quads would be a bit more rare than 1/595, but I checked my PT stats to see if they were somewhat consistant to this result and they are (about 1/600 at both PS and party through about 20k combined hands). Link to post Share on other sites
21gambit 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 1 out of 595???!?!?!?!?!??! maybe of played hands for a tight player, but no, you dont get them that frequently. I believe the true odds are 1 out of somewhere around 50K. Then again ive hit 4 royal flushes which are only supposed to occur 1 out of 500K hands(roughly), but I definitely have not seen 2Million hands. Link to post Share on other sites
KTW 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 The odds of it happening twice are the same as it happening one time. The odds of "predicting" it twice is the latter. I am not sure if this is an "understood" factor, so I posted it. 8) Link to post Share on other sites
21gambit 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 Thanks captain anal retentive, another job well done Link to post Share on other sites
princeof56k 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 The odds of it happening twice are the same as it happening one time. The odds of "predicting" it twice is the latter. I am not sure if this is an "understood" factor, so I posted it. 8)Well the original question was what are the odds of it happening twice in a row. To calulate the odds on this you must start out before you have even hit quads the first time. The second trial is dependent upon the first happening.If the question were asked about what are the odds of hitting a second quads after I just hitquads, thats a different question. And your answer is correct since they are both independent trials. Link to post Share on other sites
jooka 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 the odds are, YOU GOT SERIOUSLY LUCKY MOTHER ****** (sw) Link to post Share on other sites
Makata 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 I've seen it happen too but in an even more restricted way. Ages ago I had 33 in the sb, someone raised it, pot was maybe 4 or 5 way, I decided to call, flop was 336. I of course won .. but the interesting thing was on the very next hand (which I didn't play) the flop was again 336. We were joking "yea someone has quad 3's again!"Well I was SB when i hit quads. On the end, the SB in the next hand flips over 33, and I don't think anyone could believe that on 2 consecutive hands:- The flop was 336- The SB called any pre-flop raises- The SB had 33 in the hole, and (of course) won.The odds on THAT scenario are bordering on impossible, but it happened. Link to post Share on other sites
Makata 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 I've seen it happen too but in an even more restricted way. Ages ago I had 33 in the sb, someone raised it, pot was maybe 4 or 5 way, I decided to call, flop was 336. I of course won .. but the interesting thing was on the very next hand (which I didn't play) the flop was again 336. We were joking "yea someone has quad 3's again!"Well I was SB when i hit quads. On the end, the SB in the next hand flips over 33, and I don't think anyone could believe that on 2 consecutive hands:- The flop was 336- The SB called any pre-flop raises- The SB had 33 in the hole, and (of course) won.The odds on THAT scenario are bordering on impossible, but it happened. Link to post Share on other sites
Nutcracker 0 Posted June 3, 2005 Share Posted June 3, 2005 1 out of 595???!?!?!?!?!??! maybe of played hands for a tight player, but no, you dont get them that frequently. I believe the true odds are 1 out of somewhere around 50K. Then again ive hit 4 royal flushes which are only supposed to occur 1 out of 500K hands(roughly), but I definitely have not seen 2Million hands.1/595 is the odds of playing any 2 hole cards and hitting quads. Obviously in order to hit quads at that rate, you would have to play every single hand. Here are my PT stats that back up my statistics (if i'm wrong on the stats calc, please let me know):Stars - On my PT stars stats, it doesn't show quads that you could have made if you folded preflop, just what you have after the river (or after everyone folds to your bet):Went to flop ~3600 times, had quads 5 times.This is a bit lower than my 1/595 number and that is easily attributed to hands that I win with a flop bet when I would have made quads, etc.. along with standard variance.Party - On party, they show quads even if you folded at some point. Like if I held 25 and folded preflop and board came 7777K, I get credited with having quads.Total hands: 4400, had quads 7 times. Again, a tad low, but not much. Most all hands on party see a river, so this number should be nearly exactly 1/595 if I had sufficient sample (probably need like 50k hands to get an accurate sample size with this calculation).And the chance of hitting a royal on any given hand should be (20/52*4/51*3/50*2/49*1/48) * (7!/(5!2!)) or 1/30,940.The chance of hitting a royal when you have 2 cards to the royal in your hand is (3/50*2/49*1/48) * (5!/2!3!) or 1/1960 Link to post Share on other sites
s_dogg 0 Posted June 4, 2005 Share Posted June 4, 2005 same thing happened to me once, except both times i had a pocket pair and flopped quads back to back...amazing! Link to post Share on other sites
Nightcrawler 0 Posted June 4, 2005 Share Posted June 4, 2005 best.rush.ever. Link to post Share on other sites
Governator 54 Posted June 4, 2005 Share Posted June 4, 2005 best.rush.ever.this.is.getting.annoying. Link to post Share on other sites
troyomac 0 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 this.is.getting.annoying.qft.i. think. the. odds. of. quads. back. to. back. hands. is. impossible. Link to post Share on other sites
Actuary 3 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 qft.i. think. the. odds. of. quads. back. to. back. hands. is. impossible.worst.bump.ever Link to post Share on other sites
Zach6668 513 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 worst.bump.everwow. agreed. Link to post Share on other sites
TB17 0 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 qft.i. think. the. odds. of. quads. back. to. back. hands. is. impossible.listen punk just because you win 8k doesnt mean you can bump stupid threads. Link to post Share on other sites
chrozzo 19 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 i got my tenth royal last night.....finally in spaidsgo methat is all. Link to post Share on other sites
WowThats 0 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 My guess Live poker: once every 10 years, online poker: every other hand. Link to post Share on other sites
troyomac 0 Posted November 12, 2006 Share Posted November 12, 2006 worst.bump.everI realized that in the midst of clicking the add reply button, but I was past the point of no return. My bad Link to post Share on other sites
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