BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Ted Cruz announcing Carly as his running mate is hilarious denial Link to post Share on other sites
SuitedAces21 2,722 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I'll either voting for Gary Johnson or writing in my best friend, SuitedAces21. #nevertrump #neverhillary Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Ted Cruz announcing Carly as his running mate is hilarious denial I mean... probably not. I would give Ted a fairly good shot at winning the nomination right now. They already knew that he was going to lose all 5 states on Tuesday, and they thought they would probably come in 3rd. He had already picked and vetted Carly so that he could announce the next day after the Trump stronghold of the NE to get people to not talk about Trump immediately after. He also has a ground game that is at least 10x better than anyone else. If Trump also doesn't get to 1237 or however many he needs... then it will go to a 2nd ballot, and Ted already has hundreds of delegates committed to switching on the 2nd vote. Trump has the highest unfavorable ratings in history right now. That's going to be an issue going forward. Also, nobody is talking about how Kasich is delusional, but he has no possible way of touching anything at the convention. He's literally throwing away money and dividing the party for no reason. Now if you think Carly was the stupid part of the situation, then I think you have an argument. But there is a very real chance... like higher than 30% that Cruz takes it at the convention. But man oh man, does Drudge love Trump. I think that hurts Ted badly since that's where so many people get their news. "31,853,059 VIEWS PAST 24 HOURS" Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 I mean... probably not. I would give Ted a fairly good shot at winning the nomination right now. Speaking of Denial.. Also, nobody is talking about how Kasich is delusional, but he has no possible way of touching anything at the convention. Strawman! No one is talking about Kasich at all. But there is a very real chance... like higher than 30% that Cruz takes it at the convention. Pure fantasy. But you've proven in the past how strong your ability to wish-think is. My point is, declaring who your "running mate " is when you don't have the nomination yet, and aren't close to having it, is a really desperate move. I can't remember there ever being a candidate who's announced who their running mate is before they've secured the nomination. And you might think Ted has a "fairly good shot" at winning the nomination, but he doesn't have it, so announcing a running mate is at the very least premature. As to the "strategy" of picking Carly, well she's obviously a terrible choice as a runningmate. He likely had no choice though since every washington insider hates him. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 But really, if you think Cruz is 2-1 to get the nomination, take out a second mortgage and bet it, cause you can get a hell of a good price on him right now Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Mostly, Carly is just a horrendous choice. The suggestions that she is a "Hilary stopper" show just how delusional and superficial the Republican fundamentalists (who these days represent a tiny faction of actual Republicans) are. Link to post Share on other sites
mrdannyg 274 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Brvy's point about distracting the news cycle away from Trump's dominance is a good one. Link to post Share on other sites
mrfritz 885 Posted April 28, 2016 Author Share Posted April 28, 2016 Trump is probably going to end up with the most votes ever in a GOP primary. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 But really, if you think Cruz is 2-1 to get the nomination, take out a second mortgage and bet it, cause you can get a hell of a good price on him right now Well that assumes there will be a contested convention. I'm only saying that if no one gets the required amount and they have to work it out in convention that Cruz has at least a 30% chance. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Well that assumes there will be a contested convention. I'm only saying that if no one gets the required amount and they have to work it out in convention that Cruz has at least a 30% chance. and I'm saying you should bet that Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 28, 2016 Share Posted April 28, 2016 Done. This is actually your fault BigD. When you first introduced me to Lebby, I made a bet with two people in Iowa that the Heat would get LeBron, Bosh and Wade. Everyone thought I was crazy, but I was listening to insider information that felt that it had a chance. I won a $100. The same thing is happening now. I'm acquaintances with an insider, who Cruz has actually mentioned from the podium in a speech. All my thoughts on a Cruz win having any possibility is coming from him. Here is a post from earlier today: "Since I'm getting a ton of questions about this, I'm going to try my best to make the delegate math as simple as I can, because it is quite complicated since each state does it differently. Probably the easiest way to do so is by assuming the conventional wisdom on who wins what from here out is correct. That Trump will win WV and NJ, that Cruz will win NE, MT, and SD, and that proportional WA, OR, and NM will be mostly split. If that conventional wisdom holds, then the 2016 presidential election comes down to IN and CA. If you assume that Trump has about 30 of the unbound delegates in PA according to the AP (who don't have to declare until we get to Cleveland), then for Trump to win on a first ballot at the convention he would need the following: 36 of the 57 delegates at stake in IN, and 93 of the 172 at stake in CA. Both states are winner-take-all by congressional district. That would get Trump within 30 of the 1237 he needs to win on the first ballot. But again, since those PA delegates don't have to declare until Cleveland, you'd still head into convention with a contest until they formally do. And the reason I say the presidential election will be decided now is because Trump has maybe a 10% chance to beat Hillary. " This is the closest he has ever been to saying that a Trump win is virtually guaranteed. The major battle Ted has is that Drudge and other places are loudly saying that Ted is eliminated. Sure, many people understand that that only means he can't reach 1237 on the first ballot, but the far majority think that that means he can't win in any scenario, which just isn't true. This will make these last few states lean heavily away from Cruz, just because people don't want to throw their votes away. I'm pretty surprised that Cruz didn't pick Rubio. I think he could have gotten a bump from that instead of a laugh. Rubio really destroyed his "sexiness" in the debates. It's really a shame -for him- how much he imploded. Link to post Share on other sites
JubilantLankyLad 1,957 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Trump is probably going to end up with the most votes ever in a GOP primary. And the most votes "against". 1 Link to post Share on other sites
JubilantLankyLad 1,957 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 What exactly are you betting, brv? I may want in on this. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Well, I got a 2nd mortgage, like BigD suggested, and then I bet it all on Cruz becoming president. Link to post Share on other sites
JubilantLankyLad 1,957 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Well that doesn't seem wise. Where's turbo going to live when the bank turfs you out of the house?? Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 I'm assuming he's going to be moving with me to Beverly Hills... Link to post Share on other sites
Scrim 115 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 So basically you're saying that if the convention goes contested and they do a number on Trump, that there's a 30% chance Cruz is the voluntary pick? Cruz is just as loathed among the Republicans as Trump, if not more. To deny Trump the nomination means the door is wide open to pick, literally, whoever the **** they want, at which point why pick a total undesirable like Cruz when you've already denied the guy who most people voted for? It will be some kind of Rubio ticket with Kasich or Bush, or a purely sacrificial candidate. It doesn't matter. Clinton's going to pick Sanders as VP, they aren't going to be beaten as a team by Trump/Christie. I'm pretty surprised that Cruz didn't pick Rubio. He probably tried but Rubio is too savvy to hitch his political wagon to the dumpster fire that is the Cruz candidacy. Fiorina is too autistic to know better. 2 Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 So basically you're saying that if the convention goes contested and they do a number on Trump, that there's a 30% chance Cruz is the voluntary pick? Yes. People don't like the establishment. When Boehner said he was the devil yesterday that was basically an endorsement for Cruz for most of the angry GOP members. I agree with you though that Hillary is basically inevitable. Link to post Share on other sites
Scrim 115 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 The angry GOP members who don't like the establishment are overwhelmingly voting Trump, which is why he's winning. The fringe handful of orthodox Republicans aren't enough to support a national Cruz candidacy. I'd venture a legit majority of Trump voters won't vote for Cruz whereas 90%++ of Cruz voters will vote Trump if the alternative is Hillary Clinton because Cruz voters are driven more by obstinate partisan ideology than the Trumpies. Cruz only attains "outsider" status by virtue of having been an annoying gadfly who didn't work well with anyone. Nobody likes those guys. Trump is an actual outsider who has never been in politics. The "hit the restart button on this motherfcker" vote is already in the bag for Trump and Sanders but Clinton is way better at machine politics, so she'll win on the Dem side... and her machine-politic instinct will cause her to select Sanders as veep. If he doesn't take it, she'll have to deal with it but I'm guessing he will. In the meantime, if the Republicans can manage to stop Trump from locking it up, their only choice is certain, humiliating defeat with the very real possibility of violent lashing out from Trump voters that will be 'interesting' to say the least. It will be sporadic and isolated, not enough to cause alarm to anyone not in the immediate vicinity but it has the potential to be pretty widespread. Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 I don't disagree with most of what you've said, but I would guess that 90% of Cruz supporters voting Trump is high. I will readily admit being in a conservative religious bubble, but there are bunches of people in my circles and my circles circles that are fully on board #NeverTrump. Also, the reason that I'm as high as 30% is because no one is questioning Cruz's masterful ground game. He is really well organized, and has a lot of under the radar delegates. And since delegates are the only thing that matter, I think he's smart to play that game. Of course this entire line of thought is moot if Trump wins on the first ballot and is not contested. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Scrim 115 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 I think you'd be surprised how many of today's #NeverTrump'ers quietly become Trump voters in the face of a Hillary Clinton presidency. Everyone's a never-back-down warrior until shit gets real. Link to post Share on other sites
BigDMcGee 3,352 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 John Boehner publicly called Cruz "Lucifer in the flesh" and said "I've never worked with a more miserable son of a bitch in my life," https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/04/28/john-boehner-just-called-ted-cruz-lucifer-in-the-flesh-he-does-this-sometimes/?postshare=6091461855041457&tid=ss_tw That is what I meant when I said that Washington insiders HATE Cruz. Link to post Share on other sites
FCP Bob 1,312 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 John Boehner publicly called Cruz "Lucifer in the flesh" and said "I've never worked with a more miserable son of a bitch in my life," https://www.washingt...41457&tid=ss_tw That is what I meant when I said that Washington insiders HATE Cruz. The Satanists are offended by the comparison 1 Link to post Share on other sites
brvheart 1,752 Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 John Boehner publicly called Cruz "Lucifer in the flesh" and said "I've never worked with a more miserable son of a bitch in my life," https://www.washingt...41457&tid=ss_tw That is what I meant when I said that Washington insiders HATE Cruz. Oh, I get it. The issue is that most Cruz voters hate Boehner with a passion, so this only encourages them. Link to post Share on other sites
mrfritz 885 Posted May 4, 2016 Author Share Posted May 4, 2016 Well brvy... Link to post Share on other sites
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