Dubey 1,035 Posted December 23, 2016 Share Posted December 23, 2016 One more Darren Sproles TD last night would have been worth about 8-10k Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Forgot to post my lineup. Not a great start: Tom Brady Jordan Howard Jonathan Stewart Julio Jones Chris hogan Michael Thomas Greg Olsen Tyler lockett Bears D Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Dubey, do you play DFS hockey at all? Link to post Share on other sites
MapleLeafpoker 1,462 Posted December 24, 2016 Share Posted December 24, 2016 Forgot to post my lineup. Not a great start: Tom Brady Jordan Howard Jonathan Stewart Julio Jones Chris hogan Michael Thomas Greg Olsen Tyler lockett Bears D where's Allen Robinson??? Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 where's Allen Robinson??? Strongly considered it. Pretty much every guy I considered had a huge game except for the guys that ended up in my final lineup. First lineup I made was a Rodgers/Nelson stack with Adam Thielen on the other side of that game. As for the lineup above, I am actually in contention for last place. 2911/2962 currently. We do have one lineup in pretty good shape in some other smaller tourneys. Need a huge game from Matt savage and Deandre Hopkins tonight. Plus Houston defense Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 Dubey, do you play DFS hockey at all? Nope, wouldn't even have any idea on optimal/good strategy or anything in NHL Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted December 25, 2016 Share Posted December 25, 2016 I made my first NFL single game bet today for this season. Cleveland to win. Bink. 1 Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 Random ramblings about DFS this week since I'm having trouble making a lineup and want to get my thoughts down somewhere: Final week of NFL DFS. just a 2-game slate, but easily the most interesting and difficult 2-game slate of the season. Rarely are there so many legitimate options in a 2-game slate. I'm sticking to 1 lineup this week and I honestly don't know what direction I am going to go. I've been having a lot of success in 2-game slates by trying to predict which QB is going to be highest owned, and then going with a different QB with a slightly lower, but similar projection, and then building my lineup from there. This week, I'm fairly certain that highly owned QB is going to be Matt Ryan. The real question is how much higher-owned will he be than Aaron Rodgers? I'm not touching big Ben on the road against the patriots, but Tom Brady is intriguing. I just don't know if I can fade both QBs in a ATL/GB matchup with a 60.5 o/u and 2 of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Typing this out, I don't think I can do it. I think I'm talking myself into Aaron Rodgers. He's the highest price QB in a week where every dollar is precious, which I think will suppress his ownership a bit. He's also less likely to get TDs vultured by his RBs, despite what happened last week with Ty Montgomery running 2 in. on the steelers, Le'veon Bell and Antonio Brown are really high upside plays that will almost certainly have pretty low ownership. Le'veon because his price tag makes it difficult to create a decent lineup around, and Antonio, because Julio Jones is going to command most of the ownership in that price range. Bellichik is really good at gameplanning to take away your #1 weapon. In this case, that would be Le'veon. But given the Patriots non-dominant D front, and the Steelers impressive O line, plus Bell's otherworldly skill level, I don't think you can really scheme Bell out of the game, which means I think they will scheme to bottle up Brown. In a typical 2-game slate, a guy like Bell would normally be like 95% owned. On this slate, it wouldn't surprise me if he is less than 20%. I'm thinking Atlanta passing game is going to be really popular. I'm thinking a lineup centered around the Falcons run game and the Packers Pass game could be really contrarian but have very similar upside to the popular plays. Not sure if I can possibly squeeze Le'veon Bell into such a lineup. will have to tinker around a bit to see. I might be underestimating how popular Rodgers will be. Gonna have to sniff around and see what all the "experts" are saying in the next few days. Other guys who will be really highly owned (doesn't mean I won't play them): Dion Lewis Jared Cook Ty Montgomery (I think) Martellus Bennet (Not sure about this. He's really cheap though) /ramble over really wish Adam Levitan, Peter Jennings, and All Zeidenfeld were doing their weekly podcast this week. I need guidance Link to post Share on other sites
Untilted 158 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 My guess is Lewis, Cook and Montgomery will be overinflated. Cant expect any of the 3 to duplicate last week My thinking is it hopefully creates some value to guys like Blount and Cobb I'm pretty big on Cobb this week (Adams hurting) Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 yeah I feel the same way. Love Blount this week. Was all over Lewis last week because Blount was coming off the flu where he missed practice. Plus Blount was going to be super high owned and usage had been pretty much 50/50 over the previous 2 games and I thought their projections were pretty similar but Lewis was cheaper and would be much lower owned. Now, with Blount back to full health, ownership percentage plus price going way up on Lewis, and Lewis' 3 TDs last week masking the fact that he wasn't all that productive on his backfield touches, it creates a perfect situation to pivot back to Blount profitably. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I do think Cobb will be really high owned though, especially if Adams misses. Though still not a guy I want to fade. I did manage to create a lineup with Le'veon and Rodgers that I don't hate. I'll post it closer to Sunday if I end up using it. Link to post Share on other sites
Untilted 158 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I do think Cobb will be really high owned though, especially if Adams misses. Though still not a guy I want to fade. I did manage to create a lineup with Le'veon and Rodgers that I don't hate. I'll post it closer to Sunday if I end up using it. I'm hoping Cook and Allison will be overinflated with the partial benefit going to Cobb possibly. Maybe wishful thinking. I haven't see the salary allotments yet, though Link to post Share on other sites
Untilted 158 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 One thing I don't take into account as much as I should is percentage owned and looking elsewhere for an alternative Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 18, 2017 Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think ownership percentage is slightly overrated on larger slates, and slightly underrated on Short slates. pivoting from a 60% owned guy to a 20% owned guy and coming out ahead in points is such a huge swing on the field. for example. I cleaned up in the week 15/16 Monday-Thursday slate by pivoting from Kirk Cousins, who was like 60% owned, to Cam Newton, who was less than 20%. Newton outscored Cousins like 32-18 or something, and I had a huge leg up on most of the field. On the same slate, pivoted from Giants D (over 60%) to Eagles D (like 10%), and came out ahead on that exchange too. I find on short slates that the ownership on defense and QB is usually really concentrated on 1 option. Sometimes, it's for good reason and you just have to suck it up and play the popular guy. Sometimes there is good opportunity to take a slightly worse, but still similar play at way lower ownership/ On large slates where very few guys are over 20%, it's less important. Especially when you are only playing a few lineups. Link to post Share on other sites
Untilted 158 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 2 lineups for tomorrow. I'm big on NE and Atlanta obviously: Brady/Coleman/Blount/Cobb/Edelman/J Jones/Bennett/Gabriel/NE defense Ryan/Bell/Blount/Cobb/Edelman/Gabriel/James/Sanu/Atlanta defense Link to post Share on other sites
digitalmonkey 929 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I think ownership percentage is slightly overrated on larger slates, and slightly underrated on Short slates. pivoting from a 60% owned guy to a 20% owned guy and coming out ahead in points is such a huge swing on the field. for example. I cleaned up in the week 15/16 Monday-Thursday slate by pivoting from Kirk Cousins, who was like 60% owned, to Cam Newton, who was less than 20%. Newton outscored Cousins like 32-18 or something, and I had a huge leg up on most of the field. On the same slate, pivoted from Giants D (over 60%) to Eagles D (like 10%), and came out ahead on that exchange too. I find on short slates that the ownership on defense and QB is usually really concentrated on 1 option. Sometimes, it's for good reason and you just have to suck it up and play the popular guy. Sometimes there is good opportunity to take a slightly worse, but still similar play at way lower ownership/ On large slates where very few guys are over 20%, it's less important. Especially when you are only playing a few lineups. Is the ownership % known beforehand? Link to post Share on other sites
gruven 530 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Is the ownership % known beforehand? absolutely not. Unless you're the inside guy that won the milly maker and probably knew what the ownership percentages were beforehand. Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I'm shocked that Nelson is playing... Can't decide if I should change my lineup or not. Something tells me he will be used as a decoy. Rodgers Blount Coleman Cobb Allison Gabriel Cook Bell Steelers Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Went with Eli Rogers instead of Allison Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Not having Ryan/Julio hurts, but Rodgers kept me alive with a big second half. Counting on Bell being less than 20% owned and having a huge game. Not winning any tourneys but could cash still Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Bell 29%. That's too bad. Probably a mistake then, I don't think Squeezing bell in was optimal this week. Only worth it if he's at low ownership Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Luckily my brother made a lineup last minute with Ryan/Julio/hogan/Edelman that is currently in the top 2% or so of all the small tournaments. Salvaged the day Link to post Share on other sites
Dubey 1,035 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 yay NFL DFS is back Link to post Share on other sites
GOCUBSGO 77 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Ugh, when will Iowa stop being lame and allow me to gamble away my money on DFS?!? Link to post Share on other sites
serge 904 Posted September 13, 2017 Author Share Posted September 13, 2017 Ugh, when will Iowa stop being lame and allow me to gamble away my money on DFS?!? shitty..I ask the same thing every day about the US and online poker. Link to post Share on other sites
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