Daily Fantasy Sports. Lets All Make Some Money

[Dubey 1,035]

I think the 10% rake is standard through all levels. There's no difference between playing 1 $100 match or 100 $1 matches except variance is way lower for the latter.

[Zach6668 513]

Arp, I'm happy to share, but I'm literally just getting started.

[Dubey 1,035]

I'm still fairly involved week to week in NFL, just haven't posted much here. I spend a fair bit of time listening to podcasts, reading, thinking about lineups etc.. I haven't played any "cash games" mostly because I'm not playing with my own bankroll so I'm not trying to grind out a small profit, just trying to hit a jackpot.

 

I've been mostly breaking even/losing a bit since the big WSOP win, though that 1 lineup won about $14,500 including the WSOP seat which was converted to cash. I'm putting 3-400 into play each week across 4-5 lineups (usually 3 lineups for main slate on sunday, 1 mon-thursday lineup, and occasionally a primetime (SNF-MNF). Playing strictly large field tournaments so it's tough/impossible to just turn a steady profit each week playing low volume.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I guess I'd just be curious to hear how its going for most.

I respected the fact that Serge was honest that he went bust or nearly did.

 

Part of me wishes I could do it just for fun, but the setup of the system, plus the stories we have all read+heard has taken away any desire for me to dabble in it here or there.

 

Another part of me wants to take a few hours a day, and see if I can crack the DFS, to at least break even or profit consistently.

But this is my busy time, and I just dont have the time or energy.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I've been mostly breaking even/losing a bit since the big WSOP win, though that 1 lineup won about $14,500 including the WSOP seat which was converted to cash.

 

cash? You aren't playing?

 

(i would have done the same, but I was kind of hoping we would be invited next November to watch you play)

[digitalmonkey 929]

I haven't deposited yet.

[Dubey 1,035]

Oh I'm playing. I posted earlier in the thread that once Draft Kings pulled out of Nevada they converted all the WSOP tickets into cash. We Withdrew immediately after and It's sitting in an account right now that we are going to use to buy me into the WSOP.

 

You guys are all invited to be part of my entourage/cheering section when I make the November 9

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

nice!

[Babying 613]

Oh I'm playing. I posted earlier in the thread that once Draft Kings pulled out of Nevada they converted all the WSOP tickets into cash. We Withdrew immediately after and It's sitting in an account right now that we are going to use to buy me into the WSOP.

 

You guys are all invited to be part of my entourage/cheering section when I make the November 9

 

Can't wait!!!!!!!

[Dubey 1,035]

Arp, I will say, that Draft Kings + NFL Red Zone has taken NFL Sundays to another level for me in entertainment value/enjoyment, regardless of whether I am actually a "winning player". I don't know if it's partly because I'm not playing with my own money, plus even the money that is there is "house money" after my one big week, so I really don't feel any gambler's remorse when we have a bad week.

[serge 904]

I think hockey is most profitable for people like us.

 

like the Garret Sparks situation. If that was NFL I have no clue the third string guy was starting. On DK today it shows Reimer DTD and Bernier there. No mention of AHL

 

We already decimate every inch of NHL news already.

[Dubey 1,035]

I feel that way about the NFL though and I don't know if it's enough to give a huge edge. Maybe.

 

I could tell you off the top of my head the current starting RB for every NFL team and which ones are injury replacements for regular starters and therefore cheaper on Draft Kings. It seems like the general Draft Kings playing public is fairly in tune with this kind of stuff as well though. Not sure what it's like for NHL. Or how valuable that information is in the NHL. in the NFL, having a starting RB go down causes huge swings in value. Guys like Charcandrick West or Thomas Rawls go from being completely irrelevant to being top 5 options in the entire league when the guy ahead of them gets injured. Garrett Sparks isn't suddenly a fantasy stud just because Reimer is out and Bernier is in the AHL. If Tavares gets injured, there isn't somebody waiting behind him to instantly step in and replace 95-100% of his productivity.

[FCP Bob 1,312]

If I thought I was competing against the general public I would maybe have more interest in playing DFS but the reality is that you're playing against sophisticated players with powerful algorithms.

 

If I wanted to put time and effort in I would probably do it on live in game sports betting on some place like Betfair. Our buddy Brian of the Greaseballs does very well with that.

[serge 904]

I think the 10% rake is standard through all levels. There's no difference between playing 1 $100 match or 100 $1 matches except variance is way lower for the latter.

 

This isnt accurate..The rake is lower on the higher levels..For example

 

$1 heads up pays $1.80...10 percent rake

 

$109 heads up pays $200...9 percent rake

 

$10600 heads up pays $20000....6 percent rake

 

This is for DraftKings..Dont know about FD or other sites

[serge 904]

I think you guys are underestimating the massive amount of button pushers..I have seen it myself with my brother in law and his friends..They log on, pick a team within a minute and boom they go...

 

I think the number of "superusers" is minimal ...There is still a lot of money to go around ..

[Zach6668 513]

I had a few of my 50 HU games last night against randoms. The multis and I were >30, these others were under 15. So yeah, I believe it.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I had a few of my 50 HU games last night against randoms. The multis and I were >30, these others were under 15. So yeah, I believe it.

 

not sure I understood you, are you saying Serge is correct in saying that we are underestimating the button pushers.

 

Serge, not trying to be a dick, but what makes you "better" (at DFS obv) than a buttonpusher? How many hours of research do you do that the average daily DFS player does not do? No offence, but I dont think knowing about Sparks is that much of an advantage, I would imagine 90%, if not 99% of players at DFS know all about the backup goalies playing in Toronto.

For example, what % of players will select Bernier or Reimer or Hutchinson tonight? I imagine 99.9% of players know to google/twitter search starting goalies. Am I wrong? I could be, I dont follow it that closely.

[Zach6668 513]

oh I don't know, I don't know if I'm good, I just mean I think there are donks out there who are putting their fave players in... not sure what percentage, but they're there.

[serge 904]

not sure I understood you, are you saying Serge is correct in saying that we are underestimating the button pushers.

 

Serge, not trying to be a dick, but what makes you "better" (at DFS obv) than a buttonpusher? How many hours of research do you do that the average daily DFS player does not do? No offence, but I dont think knowing about Sparks is that much of an advantage, I would imagine 90%, if not 99% of players at DFS know all about the backup goalies playing in Toronto.

For example, what % of players will select Bernier or Reimer or Hutchinson tonight? I imagine 99.9% of players know to google/twitter search starting goalies. Am I wrong? I could be, I dont follow it that closely.

 

Sparks was just an example, not a good one, but one nonetheless...I spend probably about an hour everyday...I personally know every single NHL player(as most of you all) ..With the NFL and NBA I play them but I use a secondary site with some charts. Because I couldnt name more than a handful players on each team.

 

We follow people on twitter that news might come out that Komarov(again an example) will be playing top line and PP minutes...That info isnt that available to the button pushors...My brother in law is a perfect example...He cant name more than 5 NHL players, but he plays DFS and he loves it..Most of us already do a lot of the legwork with respect to our various pools, so we know whats going on...What percentage of people might pick Bernier or Reimer tonight I dont know, as thats probably not the greatest example.

 

For example (again a Leafs one)

 

Leo Komarov is $3600 Peter Holland is $3300 today..Not much of a difference..But Komarov is averaging about 4 and half more minutes a game with better linemates TYPICALLY....

 

Also I can guarantee I can make a profit playing strictly cash games...But I love playing the big tourneys , because its more fun....I think variance on cash games is much lower..Obviously

[Zach6668 513]

My basic strategy is to get as many with top 6 forwards who are on PP1 on teams who are favourites to win. Not really revolutionary.

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

I was curious to look over things tonight, and started to put together a lineup, got timed out.

 

Tavares, Little

Okposo, Wheeler, Purcell

Buffy, Nurse

Hellebucyk

Nelson

 

since I gave it little thought, it was more of a MTT style lineup than heads up.

also, I know nothing about blocked shots, so all the "I think Purcell is hot and underpriced" prob means little in the grand scheme of things

[MapleLeafpoker 1,462]

Arp, I will say, that Draft Kings + NFL Red Zone has taken NFL Sundays to another level for me in entertainment value/enjoyment, regardless of whether I am actually a "winning player". I don't know if it's partly because I'm not playing with my own money, plus even the money that is there is "house money" after my one big week, so I really don't feel any gambler's remorse when we have a bad week.

 

I would guess it has little to do with the fact you're playing with "house" money or even someone elses. The 'negative' rush is still the same when you lose Ill bet.

 

I have to admit, whenever I have played, and its very little for very little money, I have been much more engaged in the games. It takes it to a whole other level, and the few times I played NFL, it was lots of fun. If this were the 'old days' when I used to watch a lot of the NFL, I would be all over it. (and losing, lol)

[Zach6668 513]

I swept my HU games again. Ho hum.

 

23-0 tonight. All on DK this time.

[Dubey 1,035]

my current Tournament lineups for this weekend's NFL games with commentary, subject to change/tinkering over the next few days.

 

Lineup 1:

QB - Marcus Mariota $5500 - Lots of good value in the lower end QBs this week. I'm not 100% sold on Mariota over a few of the other bargain options, but he's here for now.

RB - David Johnson $3400 - Will be very high owned but I don't really care. Everybody else is hurt in Arizona, and he has been by far the most productive RB in Arizona on a per touch basis this year. Super cheap which gives tons of flexibility with the rest of the roster

RB - Adrian Peterson $6600 - Bad Matchup vs Seahawks, plus so many good cheap options means we can probably get AP at <10% ownership and a reasonable price. I think any time you can roster the best RB in football and have it be "contrarian" at the same time, is a good bet for a tournament.

WR Antonio Brown $8600 - Nothing fancy here, arguably best WR in the game, good matchup, healthy Ben. burned a lot of people last week so ownership might be down a bit. going cheap at a number of positions so we can afford the big dogs at WR

WR - Julio Jones $9000 - Could go Odell here as well. decided to split my exposure and go Odell in 1 and Jones in the other.

WR - Jeremy Maclin $5200 Oakland's secondary has been getting burned by fast, skilled recievers all years. Maclin never seems to get much press and he's in a price range that most people won't be looking at this week I think.

TE Scott Chandler $2500 Will probably be highly owned but with Gronk out, it's so cheap that it offers such great flexibility everywhere else

FLEX Delanie Walker $5700 the Mariota/Delanie Walke stack has been very good almost every week. Delanie Walke has been very high owned for the last few weeks so I've been mostly fading him, but I thought this might be a good week to get on him finally since I "Think" Travis Kelce, Scott Chandler and Greg Olsen are going to be the super high-owned Tight ends this week so we might be able to get Walker at a discount from an ownership % standpoint

DEF Patriots $3400 Had some money leftover so I went with the easy choice of the Patriots against the turnover prone Eagles

[Dubey 1,035]

Lineup 2

QB Ben Roethlisberger $6600 Game could turn into a shootout, Ben can put up huge numbers. Will be fairly highly owned though

RB David Johnson $3400 See above

RB Shaun Draughn $4000 He's not that good and SF sucks, but he's one of the few guys getting 100% of the workload for his team, and the bears defense is pretty bad. Also caught 5 balls last week. Nobody is on the niners offense so it's a spot where he will probably be low owned since there are tons of good options at RB and if he has a big game it could be a huge differentiator

WR Antonio Brown $8600 See lineup 1

WR Odell Beckham $8900 See lineup 1

WR TY Hilton $5700 Correlation play with brown/Ben. If this game turns into a shootout, Hilton should be a main beneficiary for the colts, I end up with a lot of exposure to a potentially high scoring, pass heavy game

TE Gary Barnidge $5300 Similar thinking to Walker above. Has been a very consistent TE who has been pretty highly owned. This is a week where most people will be off him with Austin Davis starting at QB for the browns, and lots of other popular options at TE

FLEX CJ Anderson $3500 a tourney gamble. He's very cheap and the broncos should be running the ball a lot against a really poor chargers run D. Either Anderson or Hillman should have a big game. Just gambling that it's Anderson.

DEF Cardinals $3900 don't usually choose the expensive defense but I had money left over. Rams offense is terrible, Cardinals defense is top 3. They are on the road which sucks but I don't think it is going to matter.